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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
ringo
Member
Posts: 13025
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 181 of 224 (787677)
07-20-2016 11:35 AM
Reply to: Message 178 by frako
07-19-2016 5:27 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
frako writes:

Well given that they voted to pay the same tarifs to trade with the eu, but not get a voice in how the eu market is run, over paying tarifs geting some of the money back and having a vote on how the eu market is run. My guess is that they where not so rational.


That means that their reasoning was different from yours, not that they were irrational.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 178 by frako, posted 07-19-2016 5:27 PM frako has not yet responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 13025
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 182 of 224 (787678)
07-20-2016 11:47 AM
Reply to: Message 178 by frako
07-19-2016 5:27 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
Removed double post.

Edited by ringo, : Site hung up for ten minutes and didn't finish posting - or did it?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 178 by frako, posted 07-19-2016 5:27 PM frako has not yet responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 13025
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 183 of 224 (787679)
07-20-2016 11:53 AM
Reply to: Message 179 by NoNukes
07-19-2016 9:25 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
NoNukes writes:

Except that you did not question me.


Are you deliberately being evasive?

Okay, I'll question you now: Why did you claim that "it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU"? Notice the "Why" at the beginning and the question mark at the end. That is officially a question. Can I get an answer?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 179 by NoNukes, posted 07-19-2016 9:25 PM NoNukes has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 766
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 184 of 224 (787758)
07-21-2016 12:26 PM


Recession, inflation, and (no shock) quantitative easing schemes happening as we type
quote:

British slide into recession to force BoE’s hand next month – Reuters poll
in World Economy News
21/07/2016
....
Britain’s economy will slide back into recession in the coming year, forcing the Bank of England next month to cut interest rates and start purchasing bonds again to support growth, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
....
In the latest survey, the 2017 growth forecast was hacked to just 0.6 percent from the 2.1 percent predicted in a pre-referendum poll. The economy is expected to flatline this quarter and contract 0.1 percent next.
....
So to stimulate the economy and boost confidence, the Bank needs to act “promptly as well as muscularly”, Andy Haldane, its chief economist said a day after the central bank upset markets by not cutting rates at its last meeting on July 15.
....
Bank Rate was cut to an historic low of 0.5 percent over seven years ago and all but a handful of economists polled said the Monetary Policy Committee would chop another 25 basis points when it meets on August 4 in an effort to bolster the economy.
Some expected it to be cut to zero while a few said the Bank would hold steady. Bank Rate will then sit at 0.25 percent until at least the end of 2018 whereas the June 8 poll prediction was for it to have reached 1.5 percent by then.
A firm majority also said the MPC would revive the quantitative easing programme that was wound down in 2012, most likely also in August. The median suggested 80 billion pounds would be added to the 375 billion previously spent.
Such moves would be negative for sterling – the currency has already lost around 10 percent against the dollar in the weeks since the referendum, as predicted by a Reuters poll before the vote – and will stoke inflation.
For the first time in several years, inflation is likely to rise above the 2.0 percent target within the forecast horizon.
At just 0.5 percent in June inflation will hit target early next year and then rise to 2.3 percent the quarter after, largely a result of imported inflation on account of the fall in sterling since the Brexit vote.
But that is unlikely to trigger talk of rate rises.
....

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/...xt-month-reuters-poll


They need quantitative easing schemes to enable rate cuts. There will be inflation, but it could be massive if QE ever starts to look like a scheme and fumes itself into a very very bad odor (which will lead to a major crash and burn that would be unprecedented in history as QE itself had no precedent before the 2008 idea flashed like a light-bulb in the meeting halls American Fed which in turn became a worldwide "solution" to avoid having to raise interest rates. )

Warning signs are all around us, despite the general delusion.

quote:

Brexit Impact – Rise and Fall of the British Pound Explained

You must be very careful if looking to buy GBP in the short or medium term.

Aayush Jindal | Blogs (Retail FX) | Tuesday, 19/07/2016|13:11 GMT

The Brexit event proved once again that the forex and financial markets are very unpredictable. Have you ever thought that the value of the GBP could depreciate with such a pace and trade even below the 1.3000 level against the US dollar?

The GBP/USD pair did surprise many traders recently after the Brexit news and fell from a high of 1.5000 to a 1.3000 low. Other pound pairs like GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF also weakened and lot and suffered heavy losses.
http://www.financemagnates.com/...ll-british-pound-explained


The British economy it poised to shrink with all the (recent) anti-immigration sentiment probably leading to actual slowdowns in immigration - a major source of the economic growth.

With the driver of economic growth in the U.K. stopped cold, the U.K. economy will follow.

The European economy will suffer the slowdown of the U.K. economy. (Poland for sure due to loosing remittances and a driver of their growth, but all will suffer from loosing export sales)

A deadly cycle at a very bad time - when national debts are at historically high levels.

Receding (or slowing)economies will suffer less revenue from less economic activity.

Less revenue to the government will lead to higher deficits.

Higher deficits will lead to the need for finding bond purchasers to finance the growing debt.

A growing debt and smaller GDP means a very high debt to GDP ratio (which could get way out of hand as has happened in Japan).

Quantitative Easing to the rescue?

For how long?

That's the big question.

Very big indeed.

The difference between super high interest rates and inflation and very low interest rates and inflation.

The difference between a default (which will cascade to multiple nations) on the one hand or steady-as-she-goes fiscal matters on the other.

The difference between growth (typically very small) and/or a (slight) recession on the one hand or depression on the other.

It's a big question because the consequences are so very big.


Replies to this message:
 Message 185 by Diomedes, posted 10-14-2016 2:55 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded
 Message 187 by Taq, posted 10-17-2016 4:13 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 607
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 5.9


Message 185 of 224 (792845)
10-14-2016 2:55 PM
Reply to: Message 184 by LamarkNewAge
07-21-2016 12:26 PM


Scotland Independence Referendum - Again
Well, no surprise. Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon (of the SNP) is now pushing forward talks on a second independence referendum:

http://www.bbc.com/...uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37634338

With Brexit now reality and it appears the new Prime Minister is moving forward with it, Scotland is going to attempt to separate itself from the UK.

I am curious how this will play out. It was 55-45 to stay in the last referendum prior to Brexit. But with Scotland wanting to remain in the EU, as evidenced by the way they voted on Brexit, I wonder if they will now be able to swing those 10% of voters to the other side.

Curious what those of you in the UK are hearing on the ground over there.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 184 by LamarkNewAge, posted 07-21-2016 12:26 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 186 by Tangle, posted 10-14-2016 3:01 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 4642
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 186 of 224 (792847)
10-14-2016 3:01 PM
Reply to: Message 185 by Diomedes
10-14-2016 2:55 PM


Re: Scotland Independence Referendum - Again
There's no appetite in Scotland for another referendum, if they called one now they'd just lose again. Not only that, oil prices have plummeted since the referendum and it's now impossible for them to do it financially - it always was but now it's in their face obvious. She's blowing smoke.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 185 by Diomedes, posted 10-14-2016 2:55 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 6461
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.2


(5)
Message 187 of 224 (792965)
10-17-2016 4:13 PM
Reply to: Message 184 by LamarkNewAge
07-21-2016 12:26 PM


Re: Recession, inflation, and (no shock) quantitative easing schemes happening as we type
LamarkNewAge writes:

The British economy it poised to shrink with all the (recent) anti-immigration sentiment probably leading to actual slowdowns in immigration - a major source of the economic growth.

That is something I wish many of my fellow citizens here in the US would understand. Not only do immigrants grow the economy, they also help to stabilize social programs for the elderly baby boomers. When you have more pensioners than workers it won't be pretty.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 184 by LamarkNewAge, posted 07-21-2016 12:26 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 188 by Pressie, posted 10-18-2016 9:19 AM Taq has not yet responded
 Message 192 by Diomedes, posted 10-20-2016 2:48 PM Taq has responded

  
Pressie
Member
Posts: 1605
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 188 of 224 (792983)
10-18-2016 9:19 AM
Reply to: Message 187 by Taq
10-17-2016 4:13 PM


Re: Recession, inflation, and (no shock) quantitative easing schemes happening as we type
That is something I wish many of my fellow citizens here in the US would understand. Not only do immigrants grow the economy, they also help to stabilize social programs for the elderly baby boomers. When you have more pensioners than workers it won't be pretty
That's something I experienced in Sydney. Immigrants from Ethiopia and Zim did the refuge removals, as the locals and other immigrants from places such as India see it as below their status.

The locals just didn't have enough grown children to be able to effectively take all their rubbish away every week at the minimum wage.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 187 by Taq, posted 10-17-2016 4:13 PM Taq has not yet responded

    
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1263
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 189 of 224 (793059)
10-19-2016 3:09 PM
Reply to: Message 157 by ringo
07-04-2016 11:51 AM


Re: Tribalism
Of course it can. Like any federal system, it has the power to overrule the sovereignty of any of its constituent states, provinces, etc.

I know this is a very old post, but I stopped reading the thread because I was depressed about the vote. I see no one ever responded, so I thought I'd point out that you're wrong. The EU is not a federal system, and the Commission has no authority to overrule national governments. EU law can override national law, but the Commission doesn't introduce law at a whim. Most law requires the consent of the democratically-elected parliament and a supermajority of member-state governments.

The Commission can express an opinion if it thinks a member state is in violation of EU law, but this opinion has no power; and it requires a ruling from the European Court of Justice to actually do anything. The last time the Commission told the UK it was breaking the rules, they took the case to the ECJ, and the ECJ ruled in favour of the UK government. What happened to their dictatorial powers there?

This has been part of the problem with this whole debate. The European system that has been slowly created as a series of compromises and makeshift solutions over the course of the last 70 years is fiendishly complicated, and very few people actually understand how it works. And this is not just the case for those who voted to leave.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 157 by ringo, posted 07-04-2016 11:51 AM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 190 by ringo, posted 10-20-2016 11:55 AM caffeine has responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 13025
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


(1)
Message 190 of 224 (793081)
10-20-2016 11:55 AM
Reply to: Message 189 by caffeine
10-19-2016 3:09 PM


Re: Tribalism
caffeine writes:

EU law can override national law...


That's what I said.

caffeine writes:

... but the Commission doesn't introduce law at a whim. Most law requires the consent of the democratically-elected parliament and a supermajority of member-state governments.


So it's worse than I thought. Only "most" law requires the consent of the democratically-elected parliament. And the minority of member-state governments can be trampled on.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 189 by caffeine, posted 10-19-2016 3:09 PM caffeine has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 191 by Tangle, posted 10-20-2016 1:40 PM ringo has responded
 Message 195 by caffeine, posted 10-23-2016 6:19 AM ringo has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 4642
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 191 of 224 (793084)
10-20-2016 1:40 PM
Reply to: Message 190 by ringo
10-20-2016 11:55 AM


Re: Tribalism
ringo writes:

caffeine writes:
EU law can override national law...

That's not strictly true, it's more complicated and subtle than that. This is the best way I've seen it described:

quote:
"Under the Human Rights Act, British courts are bound by the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg"

On the contrary, our Human Rights Act is clear - British courts are not required to follow the judgments of the European Court of Human Rights blindly - they must only 'take account' of them. Domestic judges can - and often do - depart from Strasbourg case law, to take account of the United Kingdom's own laws and traditions. Where our Supreme Court and the European Court disagree, the latter has the opportunity to revisit its conclusions - aiding the dialogue between the UK and Strasbourg. Repealing our Human Rights Act would only make matters worse - Strasbourg judges would be denied the chance to consider a British interpretation of European Convention rights. It's worth remembering that, when our HRA was being passed, it was actually the Conservative Party who argued that British courts should be bound by Strasbourg - but their idea was rejected by Parliament.


The thing is, the Human Rights Act is a UK law, we adopted the European Convention on Human Rights into our own legislation in 1998 but we've been using it since 1950. It was introduced just after the war - for obvious reasons.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 190 by ringo, posted 10-20-2016 11:55 AM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 193 by ringo, posted 10-21-2016 11:42 AM Tangle has responded
 Message 196 by caffeine, posted 10-23-2016 6:31 AM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 607
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 5.9


(1)
Message 192 of 224 (793088)
10-20-2016 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 187 by Taq
10-17-2016 4:13 PM


Re: Recession, inflation, and (no shock) quantitative easing schemes happening as we type
That is something I wish many of my fellow citizens here in the US would understand. Not only do immigrants grow the economy, they also help to stabilize social programs for the elderly baby boomers. When you have more pensioners than workers it won't be pretty.

Everybody is aware of that. And the USA was the country that used to exemplify that philosophy. "give us your tired huddled masses yearning to breathe free" and so forth.

So why has that philosophy changed? Two reasons:

1) Previous immigrants were mostly white, so that was considered 'acceptable' by most. Now that many appear 'different', the racist douchebags in our country have rallied behind a con man to try to make immigration stop. Which is ironic since The Donald isn't white: he's orange.

2) The corporate big wigs who have been systematically destroying the middle class of this country to line their own pockets have been using rhetoric to divert attention away from their scheme. And they do so by blaming the immigrants, who are 'stealing American jobs'. Because the Mexican family picking fruit in the field took your manufacturing job away and moved it to China.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 187 by Taq, posted 10-17-2016 4:13 PM Taq has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 200 by Taq, posted 10-24-2016 4:47 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 13025
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 193 of 224 (793127)
10-21-2016 11:42 AM
Reply to: Message 191 by Tangle
10-20-2016 1:40 PM


Re: Tribalism
Tangle writes:

The thing is, the Human Rights Act is a UK law, we adopted the European Convention on Human Rights into our own legislation in 1998 but we've been using it since 1950.


It isn't just about Human Rights, though, is it?
This message is a reply to:
 Message 191 by Tangle, posted 10-20-2016 1:40 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 194 by Tangle, posted 10-21-2016 12:43 PM ringo has acknowledged this reply

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 4642
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 194 of 224 (793129)
10-21-2016 12:43 PM
Reply to: Message 193 by ringo
10-21-2016 11:42 AM


Re: Tribalism
ringo writes:

It isn't just about Human Rights, though, is it?

Nope, not just the HRA, but it's the HRA where most of the disagreements occur.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 193 by ringo, posted 10-21-2016 11:42 AM ringo has acknowledged this reply

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1263
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 195 of 224 (793174)
10-23-2016 6:19 AM
Reply to: Message 190 by ringo
10-20-2016 11:55 AM


Re: Tribalism
That's what I said.

No it's not. You said the European Commission can override national governments. It's the difference between saying that Federal law can overrule state law and saying that the President can overrule a State legislature. Do you not see any difference between these concepts?

So it's worse than I thought. Only "most" law requires the consent of the democratically-elected parliament. And the minority of member-state governments can be trampled on.

All law requires the consent of the democratically-elected Parliament.

Most law requires the consent of the democratically-elected Parliament and a supermajority of member-state governments.

Some law requires the consent of the democratically-elected Parliament and 100% of the member-state governments.

Edited by caffeine, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 190 by ringo, posted 10-20-2016 11:55 AM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 197 by ringo, posted 10-23-2016 2:31 PM caffeine has responded

  
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