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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
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Posts: 643
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 226 of 236 (811480)
06-08-2017 6:01 PM
Reply to: Message 225 by Diomedes
06-05-2017 1:22 PM


UK Election Results
Just started watching the early exit polling and it appears to show that the Conservatives will not be reaching the necessary number of seats for a majority.

The other big shocker is the SNP is projected to lose a huge number of seats in Scotland.

Latest details are here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/...7c-42ab5745db2e_story.html

Honestly a bit mystifying at this stage. Seems like no election is easy to predict anymore. Wonder if Theresa May will survive as leader of the Conservatives if this goes south for her.


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Tusko
Member
Posts: 603
From: London, UK
Joined: 10-01-2004


Message 227 of 236 (811495)
06-08-2017 7:22 PM
Reply to: Message 226 by Diomedes
06-08-2017 6:01 PM


Re: UK Election Results
Maybe the youth vote actually turned up this time. It is still very early though, and there's a distinct possibility of this turning into Conservative gains when the night is through. Fascinating though.
This message is a reply to:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 643
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 228 of 236 (811514)
06-08-2017 10:39 PM
Reply to: Message 227 by Tusko
06-08-2017 7:22 PM


Re: UK Election Results
Maybe the youth vote actually turned up this time.

Ironically, I just heard on Bloomberg that their data shows that the youth turnout was higher this time around.

Looking at projections now, it still shows the Conservatives losing their majority. But still time for a turnaround.


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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 871
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 229 of 236 (811519)
06-08-2017 11:22 PM


Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
Conservatives loosing an outright majority might not mean too much really. I don't know.
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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1322
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 230 of 236 (811534)
06-09-2017 5:18 AM
Reply to: Message 229 by LamarkNewAge
06-08-2017 11:22 PM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
Conservatives loosing an outright majority might not mean too much really. I don't know.

Brexit, whilst important, is not the only thing that the British government and Parliament have to do with their time. The loss of a Tory majority most emphatically means something even if Britain still leaves the EU.

The truly horrifying thought here, though, is the prospect that there will still be a Tory government, but one reliant for its survival on the DUP. Not sure how familiar they are across the pond, but you will have come across the DUP on this forum. Faith posted a couple of rants about the Pope being the antichrist from Ian Paisley, the violent, hateful bigot who founded the party. Not a thought to relish.


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jar
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Posts: 29177
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 231 of 236 (811547)
06-09-2017 7:52 AM
Reply to: Message 230 by caffeine
06-09-2017 5:18 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
And it seems that it will be a Conservative/Democratic Union Party government.

I really doubt that was what the people of the UK had in mind.


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Tangle
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Posts: 4945
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 232 of 236 (811551)
06-09-2017 8:01 AM
Reply to: Message 231 by jar
06-09-2017 7:52 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
God only knows what was on our minds. My own take on it is the the youth vote absented itself at the Brexit vote, noticed that they'd got something they didn't want and turned out in force at the election to attempt to reverse it or at least get something they approve of.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 643
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 233 of 236 (811555)
06-09-2017 8:18 AM
Reply to: Message 231 by jar
06-09-2017 7:52 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
And it seems that it will be a Conservative/Democratic Union Party government.
I really doubt that was what the people of the UK had in mind.

That does appear likely with the outcome of the election. I don't know much about the party, but it appears they are from the same camp as UKIP. Euro-skeptics and also reminiscent of the Tea Party on this side of the Atlantic.

I haven't been privy to the machinations of this election, but I have to admit I am quite surprised by the outcome. I honestly don't know why there was such a backlash against May and the Conservatives when polls showed them with a commanding lead just six weeks ago. Many pundits said she ran a terrible campaign (Hillary 2.0?) but I would have thought things like the recent attacks in England would have actually galvanized her position.

And what happened to the SNP? They were slaughtered last night.


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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1322
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 234 of 236 (811557)
06-09-2017 8:28 AM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
06-09-2017 8:01 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
God only knows what was on our minds. My own take on it is the the youth vote absented itself at the Brexit vote, noticed that they'd got something they didn't want and turned out in force at the election to attempt to reverse it or at least get something they approve of.

Theres nothing much mysterious going on. UKIP stood down in a lot of the country; and lost votes where they did since a lot of people feel that battle is now won. There is no need to vote for a single issue party any more. However, those votes did not all flow too the Tories - it's worth remembering that a lot of the strongest Leave votes were in staunchly Labour areas; and much of this support went back to Labour - especially now it's a Labour with a left-wing platform that people see as a genuine alternative.

Labour has energised a lot of support amongst young people, but also amongst the traditional left. You can see this clearly in unshakeable Labour strongholds like Merseyside. The Tories would sometimes come third, fourth or even fifth in the Liverpool constituencies, but this time finished second in all of them. This is not just because they increased their vote share (although they did), but because the vote share of the smaller parties plummeted. A lot of left-leaning voters who used to vote Green, Liberal or for minor socialist parties, since they felt the major parties had little to offer, have flocked back to Labour now they are presenting themselves as a genuine leftwing alternative.


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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1322
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.5


Message 235 of 236 (811559)
06-09-2017 8:38 AM
Reply to: Message 233 by Diomedes
06-09-2017 8:18 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
And what happened to the SNP? They were slaughtered last night.

In both number of votes and number of seats, this was the second most successful election in the history of the SNP. It only looks like a slaughter because you're comparing it to 2015 - the most successful ever election for the SNP.

I think part of the swing against them comes from people who look on independence for Scotland differently post-Brexit. If Scotland became an independent state but both Scotland and the rest of the UK were EU members; then Scottish and British citizens would be guaranteed the right to move freely across the border and live and work on either side without restrictions. There is no guarantee that would be the case if the UK leaves the EU.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 643
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 236 of 236 (811561)
06-09-2017 9:23 AM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
06-09-2017 8:01 AM


Re: Labor claims that it will support the Exit.
I am curious what effect this will now have on Brexit negotiations. The whole premise behind this snap election was that May would have an even larger majority at her back when entering negotiations. Now, she faces the prospect of struggling to form a coalition and having a diminished bargaining position.

The tentative date for Brexit negotiations to start is June 19th. Only ten days away. She will have to scramble to get that coalition formed. But even so, the EU negotiators are probably now seeing blood in the water and the hand tipped in their favor.


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