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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
PaulK
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Posts: 14562
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 241 of 357 (824882)
12-04-2017 4:38 PM
Reply to: Message 240 by jar
12-04-2017 4:27 PM


Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
In principle, if everyone agrees I think it could be called off.

But the chance of that is about zero, as things are. I canít see the government surviving if it tried. There are too many Brexiteers among the Tories - theyíre making things difficult as it is.

Maybe if the Irish business brings down the Government (I donít think it will). And if Labour get in (maybe, but I wouldnít bet a lot on it). And if they can be persuaded to give up on it (another big maybe).

The whole things a big mess. But itís likely to get worse rather than better.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 240 by jar, posted 12-04-2017 4:27 PM jar has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6391
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 242 of 357 (824885)
12-04-2017 5:00 PM
Reply to: Message 240 by jar
12-04-2017 4:27 PM


Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
No, not without another referendum.

There's still a hope that when we eventually get to the end of all this, the public will have realised what a fucking stupid thing we've done and another vote will be held. This time the students might get out of bed and vote. Long shot tho'.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 240 by jar, posted 12-04-2017 4:27 PM jar has acknowledged this reply

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1290
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 243 of 357 (824907)
12-05-2017 12:55 AM


Don't overlook the economic "growth" percentages for the world, western nations, & UK
The 2017 year will be the first full year of the post Brexit United Kingdom.

Might as well take a look at the economic data when we have it.

(Not like it isn't fair to see the report card)

(I still have no idea why - with 57% of British incomes spend on housing costs ALONE(!) - immigrants were singled out & seen as some major drag factor, or a drag factor at all, on native Brit's well being. Slow population growth down, and hope for a little housing pressure relief? A real solution to very real economic problems would be nice.)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


    
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1559
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 244 of 357 (824936)
12-05-2017 12:26 PM
Reply to: Message 241 by PaulK
12-04-2017 4:38 PM


Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
In principle, if everyone agrees I think it could be called off.

From a strictly legal point of view, it's not entirely clear. Per the treaty as written; the UK leaves the EU in March 2019. There is a provision that this date can be extended by mutual agreement, but that's intended to give more time for negotiations. I suppose it could be indefinitely extended, but that's not really in line with the meaning of the treaty.

Rejoining the EU would, in theory, mean applying as a new member. Now, in one sense that would be simple - UK legislation is already in line with EU legislation, so the accession process can be completed as a formailty. Except that the UK currently has a bit of a cushy deal with the EU including several opt-outs. Applying as a new member would mean having to negotiate these anew; and some member-states (and the current Commission) are opposed in principle to the idea of any new opt-outs and exceptions in future accessions.

In practice I think it's just a matter of political will - if member states all agree that the process can be cancelled, then it can be. If they don't then it can't. There's no precedent for this sort of thing.


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Diomedes
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Posts: 761
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 245 of 357 (829014)
02-28-2018 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 237 by Diomedes
12-04-2017 2:48 PM


Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
Seems the situation with the Ireland border is turning into quite the quagmire for the UK leadership:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43224785

quote:
The EU's draft legal agreement proposes a "common regulatory area" after Brexit on the island of Ireland - in effect keeping Northern Ireland in a customs union - if no other solution is found.

Mrs May said "no UK prime minister could ever agree" to this.


I am honestly not sure how they will handle the situation. One the main reasons cited for Brexit was the requirement for stricter border controls. Now that appears to be undermining the fluidity of the current Northern Ireland border.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 761
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 246 of 357 (832336)
05-02-2018 3:36 PM
Reply to: Message 245 by Diomedes
02-28-2018 2:48 PM


House of Lords delivers setback to May
https://www.irishtimes.com/...-on-may-s-government-1.3479505

quote:
Theresa Mayís government has suffered a major defeat on Brexit in the House of Lords, which voted to allow parliament to reject a withdrawal agreement without triggering an exit from the European Union with no deal. Peers voted by 335 votes to 244 in favour of an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill despite government warnings that the vote would put Britain at a disadvantage in negotiations with the EU

This is turning into quite the pickle.


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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6391
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 247 of 357 (832341)
05-02-2018 4:04 PM
Reply to: Message 246 by Diomedes
05-02-2018 3:36 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
It's going to get messier yet. There's a real chance of a 2nd referendum.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 761
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 248 of 357 (832431)
05-03-2018 1:48 PM
Reply to: Message 247 by Tangle
05-02-2018 4:04 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
It's going to get messier yet. There's a real chance of a 2nd referendum.

I had heard some dialog in regards to that. Although from what I gather, that is a bit of a long shot. I think the concern is that if they call another referendum and Leave wins again, that will cause massive turmoil for the government. And likely result in them having to rush to meet the Brexit deadline next year. Might increase the likelihood of a 'hard Brexit'.

IMO, that snap election called by Theresa May really undermined things. It necessitated having to create a coalition with that fringe party in Northern Ireland and also diminished her government's position in the eyes of the EU.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 247 by Tangle, posted 05-02-2018 4:04 PM Tangle has responded

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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6391
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 249 of 357 (832432)
05-03-2018 3:12 PM
Reply to: Message 248 by Diomedes
05-03-2018 1:48 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
Diomedes writes:

IMO, that snap election called by Theresa May really undermined things. It necessitated having to create a coalition with that fringe party in Northern Ireland and also diminished her government's position in the eyes of the EU.

Her own party is split too into hard and soft Brexit with 'soft' meaning they're mostly remainers. The snap election made sense at the time, she should have won with a landslide, no-one predicted the result before it happened.

It's a clusterfuck.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 248 by Diomedes, posted 05-03-2018 1:48 PM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 250 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2018 3:35 PM Tangle has responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 761
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 250 of 357 (832497)
05-04-2018 3:35 PM
Reply to: Message 249 by Tangle
05-03-2018 3:12 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
The snap election made sense at the time, she should have won with a landslide, no-one predicted the result before it happened.

Kind of sounds like the 2016 USA election.

What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 249 by Tangle, posted 05-03-2018 3:12 PM Tangle has responded

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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1559
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 251 of 357 (832499)
05-04-2018 4:29 PM
Reply to: Message 250 by Diomedes
05-04-2018 3:35 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own?

Referendums have no legal force in UK law. I don't see any particular reason why the government couldn't call a referendum without asking Parliament, though it would be seen as more legitimate if it was legislated. There is legislation covering the conduct of referendums authorised by an Act of Parliament. A referendum done by the government on it's own sounds more like a publicly-funded opinion poll.

And the 'publicly funded' bit is probably important. I'm a little hazy on how much latitude the government has to spend it's budget. There is about US$2 billion set aside in this year's budget as a emergency panic fund for costs incurred by Brexit going badly wrong. Could you get away with using that for a referendum?


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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6391
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


(1)
Message 252 of 357 (832502)
05-04-2018 6:18 PM
Reply to: Message 250 by Diomedes
05-04-2018 3:35 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
Diomedes writes:

What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own?

It's murky and grey. It's not really about the law, referenda are purely advisory, but politically they can't be ignored. One view is that the decision to sign the final deal should be put before parliament and if parliament votes against, it would go to another referendum.

Others say that the final deal should be put to a referendum anyway as no one knew what they were voting for in the first referendum.

The government wants to do what it sees fit.

It's all about how many votes the government thinks it can get.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 250 by Diomedes, posted 05-04-2018 3:35 PM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 253 by Diomedes, posted 07-09-2018 2:46 PM Tangle has not yet responded
 Message 254 by Pressie, posted 07-11-2018 6:05 AM Tangle has responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 761
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 253 of 357 (836087)
07-09-2018 2:46 PM
Reply to: Message 252 by Tangle
05-04-2018 6:18 PM


Adios Boris.....
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44770847

quote:
Boris Johnson has launched a scathing attack on Theresa May's Brexit strategy, saying the "dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt".

In his letter resigning as foreign secretary, he said the prime minister was leading the UK into a "semi-Brexit" with the "status of a colony".

His resignation came hours after Brexit Secretary David Davis quit the cabinet.


This is becoming quite the quagmire. It appears as though the hard line conservatives aren't going to be satisfied with anything but a hard Brexit.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 252 by Tangle, posted 05-04-2018 6:18 PM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Pressie
Member
Posts: 1977
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 254 of 357 (836134)
07-11-2018 6:05 AM
Reply to: Message 252 by Tangle
05-04-2018 6:18 PM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
Hi Tangle

Another option someone mentioned the other day (I canít remember which channel; Al-Jazeera I think) is that the UK cedes Northern Ireland to the Irish Republic and then the rest of the UK can do a hard Brexit as a lot of Britons want with fewer complications.

Is that a realistic position remembering The Troubles and what would the legality be of such a situation?


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Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 14562
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 255 of 357 (836135)
07-11-2018 6:14 AM
Reply to: Message 254 by Pressie
07-11-2018 6:05 AM


Re: House of Lords delivers setback to May
While May is relying on the Ulster Unionists to prop up her government ? No chance.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 254 by Pressie, posted 07-11-2018 6:05 AM Pressie has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 256 by Pressie, posted 07-11-2018 6:37 AM PaulK has responded

    
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