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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
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Posts: 752
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 316 of 332 (844099)
11-25-2018 12:20 PM
Reply to: Message 315 by Straggler
11-24-2018 3:33 PM


There is now a deal. Widely derided as shit by remainers and leavers alike. But Theresa May is pushing it as the only deal in town and so are the EU

The EU representatives are voting in favor of the deal. They actually made their decision in less than an hour. Which leads me to believe that it is likely more favorable to the EU than it is to the UK.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46334649

I don't know the likelihood of this passing parliament. The odds right now are not in May's favor but there is still a possibility that MPs will grudgingly agree to it since there is little time for an alternative.


This message is a reply to:
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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1551
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 317 of 332 (844154)
11-26-2018 5:37 AM
Reply to: Message 316 by Diomedes
11-25-2018 12:20 PM


The EU representatives are voting in favor of the deal. They actually made their decision in less than an hour. Which leads me to believe that it is likely more favorable to the EU than it is to the UK.

Or because they've spent the last few months negotiating it. No decisions were being made at the Council meeting. It's not like the deal was sprung on them and they had to carefully take it in and assess the consequences. They've been debating it for months, came to a text all were agreed on, and then held a formal vote to rubber stamp it.


This message is a reply to:
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 752
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 318 of 332 (844252)
11-27-2018 10:18 AM
Reply to: Message 316 by Diomedes
11-25-2018 12:20 PM


Brexit Deal vote date set for December 11th
Looks like the final verdict on May's Brexit deal is now set for December 11th:

https://www.theguardian.com/...-mps-vote-on-mays-brexit-deal

Right now, the likelihood of the deal passing parliament appear to be slim. However, considering there is no alternative and the EU has stated they will not negotiate further, I am wondering if various MPs will just grudgingly vote in favor of the deal. It seems the British people are fed up with the bickering and just want them to get on with it.

Naturally, Trump threw a monkey wrench into things when he stated it looks like a deal that heavily favors the EU.


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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1551
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 319 of 332 (844266)
11-27-2018 12:14 PM
Reply to: Message 318 by Diomedes
11-27-2018 10:18 AM


Re: Brexit Deal vote date set for December 11th
Right now, the likelihood of the deal passing parliament appear to be slim. However, considering there is no alternative and the EU has stated they will not negotiate further, I am wondering if various MPs will just grudgingly vote in favor of the deal. It seems the British people are fed up with the bickering and just want them to get on with it.

The DUP, of all people, have decided it's better than no deal.

One concern will be the ruling by the ECJ on whether the UK can legally cancel Brexit unilaterally. The SNP seem to be suggesting that, if it's ruled they can, then they don't need to vote for this deal, since the options will no longer be 'this deal or no deal'; there would then be the option to cancel the whole affair.

Which is all well and good, but strikes me as extraordinarily naive. Sure they can nix the deal by voting together with the hard Brexiteers, but from where do they then think the parliamentary majority in favour of cancelling Brexit is going to come?


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 752
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 320 of 332 (844272)
11-27-2018 2:31 PM
Reply to: Message 319 by caffeine
11-27-2018 12:14 PM


Re: Brexit Deal vote date set for December 11th
The DUP, of all people, have decided it's better than no deal.

Not all of them:

quote:
Brexit: DUP's Nigel Dodds says Brexit deal 'worse than no deal'

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46335118

DUP's leader kind of flip-flopped somewhat. She seems to claim the deal is 'propaganda', but at the same time is telling MPs to 'vote in the national interest'.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46346567

Lot of political shenanigans going on. But I still surmise that when the vote comes, many MPs will simply vote for it since the likelihood of a viable alternative seems to be non-existent.


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 Message 319 by caffeine, posted 11-27-2018 12:14 PM caffeine has acknowledged this reply

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 752
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 321 of 332 (844640)
12-03-2018 9:29 AM
Reply to: Message 320 by Diomedes
11-27-2018 2:31 PM


More Brexit turmoil
quote:
The UK faces a "constitutional crisis" if Theresa May does not publish the full legal advice on her Brexit deal on Monday, Labour has warned.

The PM says the advice is confidential, but some MPs think ministers do not want to admit it says the UK could be indefinitely tied to EU customs rules.

Sam Gyimah, who quit the government on Friday, said releasing the advice was "key to restoring trust in politics".


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46419790

It seems the quagmire has gotten worse. I had honestly thought that having a deal in hand might finally cement the situation. But it appears to be causing the opposite effect. Another key Brexit minister resigning just exacerbates the situation.

From what I read, there is a strong possibility that this deal will fail in the House of Commons. If that happens, what's next? Vote of no confidence? Labour is also pushing for another referendum. Although the time frame seems to short to accommodate that.

Currency markets seem to be leaning towards a Hard Brexit outcome. The Pound Sterling is now at 1.27 to the US dollar.


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PaulK
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Posts: 14545
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.6


Message 322 of 332 (844734)
12-04-2018 4:03 PM
Reply to: Message 321 by Diomedes
12-03-2018 9:29 AM


Even more Brexit turmoil
Parliament is trying to take control.BBC

MPs have voted to demand the full legal advice concerning Brexit.
(An attempt to refer the whole matter to Committee also failed)

Theyíve also passed a motion demanding participation if Mayís deal gets voted down.

Also, Farage has quit UKIP.

Legal advice from the EU says that the U.K. can cancel Brexit. Itís not a final ruling but itís a strong sign in that direction.


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Straggler
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Posts: 10267
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 323 of 332 (844738)
12-04-2018 6:06 PM
Reply to: Message 322 by PaulK
12-04-2018 4:03 PM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
That is a heady combination that makes things even more uncertain. Those arch Brexiters who hate Mayís proposed deal now face the increased possibility of the whole Brexit thing being cancelled (or revoted on) if that deal doesnít go through. Will the coalition of remain and leave that both hate Mayís deal hold together to defeat the government? Or will some now conclude that a bad Brexit is better than a no Brexit?
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Pressie
Member
Posts: 1965
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 324 of 332 (844768)
12-05-2018 6:33 AM
Reply to: Message 323 by Straggler
12-04-2018 6:06 PM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
It's quite a mess. I really don't see any good solution. The British people voted for leaving the EU.

It's not easy and a big mess. Hard days ahead. If Theresa could pull this one off without any resulting violence anywhere she should be known as the greatest PM ever.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 752
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 325 of 332 (844776)
12-05-2018 9:55 AM
Reply to: Message 324 by Pressie
12-05-2018 6:33 AM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
Now, the government has been held in contempt. For the first time in known history that an entire government is in contempt of parliament. I wonder if they get a plaque for that?

Regarding the options, it appears we have three:

1. The deal gets voted on an wins; judging by the turmoil, it appears highly unlikely this will occur. But as mentioned earlier, it is possible that the strident Brexiteers may decide it is better to vote for this deal than risk the possibility of a worse deal or another referendum.

2. The deal gets voted on, loses, and there is a hard Brexit. Personally, I doubt this will occur. It appears no one, including the British people, want to see no deal after all these shenanigans.

3. A second referendum after the deal is voted down. In all honesty, this now appears to be the most likely scenario. The real question is what will that referendum actually ask. Will it be a referendum on the deal itself, asking the British people if it should be adopted? Or will it include the option of cancelling Brexit all together? The fact that an EU representative has now stated on record that the triggering of Article 50 can be reversed, it is possible that Brexit may end up not occurring.

There is one alternate option I didn't mention which is also a possibility: the deal gets voted down and Theresa May gets a no confidence vote or resigns. This could set the stage for Boris Johnson stepping in. If that occurs, my suspicion is he may just opt for a hard Brexit ultimatum. Maybe trying to put the screws to the EU. Although I doubt that would have much effect. Unless he can argue that a Norway or Canada style deal is still possible.

Interesting times lay ahead.


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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1551
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 326 of 332 (844798)
12-05-2018 1:15 PM
Reply to: Message 325 by Diomedes
12-05-2018 9:55 AM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
2. The deal gets voted on, loses, and there is a hard Brexit. Personally, I doubt this will occur. It appears no one, including the British people, want to see no deal after all these shenanigans.

I disagree - I think this is by far the most likely option. Contrary to the idea that nobody wants no deal; there is a very vocal constituency firmly opposed to any deal; since they've stated over and ovr again since the referendum that any plausible deal is a betrayal of the leave vote. You go on to mention one of these people:

There is one alternate option I didn't mention which is also a possibility: the deal gets voted down and Theresa May gets a no confidence vote or resigns. This could set the stage for Boris Johnson stepping in. If that occurs, my suspicion is he may just opt for a hard Brexit ultimatum. Maybe trying to put the screws to the EU. Although I doubt that would have much effect. Unless he can argue that a Norway or Canada style deal is still possible.

Let's be clear - despite citing Norway as a model of a successful country outside the EU during the referendum campaign; Johnson, Rees-Mogg and their lot have since declared that they would rather dismember and consume their own family members than accept anything remotely resembling the position Norway is currently in.


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PaulK
Member
Posts: 14545
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.6


Message 327 of 332 (844799)
12-05-2018 1:21 PM
Reply to: Message 326 by caffeine
12-05-2018 1:15 PM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
However, Parliament is quite likely to rule out a no-deal Brexit. Excepting a hardline Brexiteer taking over as Prime Minister itís unlikely that that would be ignored.
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 752
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 328 of 332 (844812)
12-05-2018 3:05 PM
Reply to: Message 327 by PaulK
12-05-2018 1:21 PM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
So they are now providing some details on the legal advice pertaining to the deal and it appears that the main issue (not surprisingly) is the backstop aspect regarding the Irish border.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46451970

quote:
Theresa May's Brexit backstop plan risks a "stalemate" and "protracted rounds of negotiations" with the EU, the full legal advice on her deal says.

Newly published documents show the PM was told an arrangement designed to prevent a hard Irish border could last "indefinitely" and the UK could not "lawfully exit" without EU agreement.

The Democratic Unionists said this would be "devastating" for the UK.

But Mrs May rejected SNP claims she has misled Parliament on the issue.


The part of this that is likely troubling for the existing prime minister and her government is if parliament determines she did mislead with her statements, that could trigger a no confidence vote. I don't know how that would play out and if they would delay the actual vote on the deal if that came to pass. Hard to say.

The main concern is if the prime minister loses her positions and that triggers a rush to appoint someone else to helm the party, that is just going to exacerbate the situation in my mind. The EU has its flaws, but it is looking mighty stable relative to the UK right now. So all the machinations of parliament may end up completely undermining their bargaining position.


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Straggler
Member
Posts: 10267
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 329 of 332 (844922)
12-08-2018 9:16 AM
Reply to: Message 328 by Diomedes
12-05-2018 3:05 PM


The French are Revolting
Brexit turmoil rumbles on. In my view a second referendum is becoming increasingly likely. But what do I know...?

In other news riots in Paris are underway for the second weekend in a row. Anti Macron. But as far as I can tell wholly unwelcoming to Le Pen and her mob too.

People are pissed off.


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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 752
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 330 of 332 (844979)
12-09-2018 3:10 PM
Reply to: Message 329 by Straggler
12-08-2018 9:16 AM


Re: The French are Revolting
Brexit turmoil rumbles on. In my view a second referendum is becoming increasingly likely. But what do I know...?

A definite possibility. Although I have no idea what the second referendum might entail. Would it just be asking the same question before? Stay versus leave? Or would they want something more elaborate?

Labour seems to want a referendum that has something like May's Deal, No Deal or Cancel Brexit. I don't think that would fly since it is obviously stacked in favor of Remain. The conservative vote would be split across two options while the liberal vote would just be relegated to one.

I think the bigger quagmire will be the near term fallout from the vote if May's deal loses. Which appears likely. But by how much is in question. I think there is a strong likelihood that if her deal loses badly, she may either resign or be forced to resign in a vote of no confidence. If that occurs, then all bets are off.

In other news riots in Paris are underway for the second weekend in a row. Anti Macron. But as far as I can tell wholly unwelcoming to Le Pen and her mob too.

The far left and far right elements seem to have made strange bedfellows. Ultimately, the tax appears to not have been well thought out. It places added pressure on working class individuals who need to drive for a living. France's taxes are already quite high as well. So I guess there is only so much blood one can get out of a stone.


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