Can someone please explain some of the details of the Irish situation in this controversy? What are the issues there?
The main issue to resolve is that the government is trying to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; which is still part of the UK.
The lack of a border was part of the original Good Friday agreement. When both the Republic of Ireland and the UK were part of the EU, this is a non issue since free movement between countries is part of the EU edict.
However, now that the UK is leaving the EU, this essentially eliminates the current 'soft border' that exists. To help alleviate this problem, Theresa May's current deal has an 'Irish Backstop' provision which allows Northern Ireland to operate somewhat independently from the rest of the UK to avoid the need for a hard border. But the provision in the deal leaves this situation very ambiguous and could theoretically exist indefinitely. This has caused deep concern for members of the UK parliament and the DUP in Ireland, since they are still strongly affiliated with the UK.
The following Youtube video explains May's deal in more details:
No Brexit is on the table in that the Government has the power to back out of Brexit.
The government does not have the power to back out now - it's already enacted into law. It would need to be Parliament actively deciding to reverse the EU withdrawal bill. There are several MPs who would rather leave without a deal than accept any deal that has a hope of being accepted by anyone else; and enough others who don't want to appear before their electors as the MP who ignored their referendum vote.
I think leaving without any deal is the most likely outcome at this point.
I will grant that sheís talking about the transition period but thatís still pretty much the way it has to be. If weíre out of the EU we donít get a say. If we want to keep free trade going we have to follow some EU rules.
It's a Mexican stand off which I'm hoping will result in a referendum simply because they can't decide. Preferably with an option of 'ah, stuff it, might as well carry on with what we've got'.
The only way I see that happening is if Labour gets back into power.
A possible scenario would go something like this: - May comes back with an updated deal. They vote on it and it fails. - Labour triggers a vote of no confidence in the government. - The DUP breaks ranks and side with Labour (as do some other MPs) giving them a majority - As a result, a general election is called and Labour gains seats and is able to form a coalition with others to get a majority - Labour calls for a second referendum re-asking the Brexit question
In all honesty, I see the above as a remote possibility. Now it is possible that if May's deal fails, she will finally recant and say the vote should go to the people. But then, what would that second referendum look like? Would it just re-hash the same question? Would it be a referendum on May's deal or no deal? Would it include a provision for cancelling Brexit? Becomes really complex at that stage.
No Brexit is on the table in that the Government has the power to back out of Brexit. Whether Parliament has the will to do that is another matter. But at this stage the alternatives are so awful I wouldnít rule it out. Mayís deal is looking dead. A No Deal Brexit isnít any more popular. Going back to the drawing board and starting again isnít much better, either.
From what I have seen, the EU seems to be taking the "take it or leave it" path. It would be in the EU's best interest to make Brexit as painful as possible to keep the UK in within the EU.
There are only 96 days and 5 hours till the UK leaves the EU. That's not a lot of time for your scenario to take place.
Agreed. In fact, I think it is a Hail Mary at best.
What I think is most plausible is that the deal either passes with a slim majority with some amendment to the Irish backstop. Or it fails and then the EU may be forced to take a softer approach to the whole situation to avoid a hard Brexit. I understand their desire to play hardball. But at some point, they must realize that having the second biggest economy in Europe get snafued is going to harm them as well.
The analogy I would use is California or Texas in the USA. Those are the two biggest economies by GDP and if something dire was affecting either of them, it would likely cascade everywhere. No state would be insulated.
quote:The leader of Britainís main opposition Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, said he was calling for a no confidence vote in Prime Minister Theresa May ó a largely symbolic gesture ó for not putting her Brexit plan to a vote by lawmakers immediately.
I don't really understand this from a political perspective, but I am not that familiar with British politics. I thought May already dealt with a no confidence vote from her own party. And she survived that and cannot be challenged again for a year. Is it different because now the motion comes from the opposition? I thought they might be able to call a vote of no confidence in the government, but not the PM directly.