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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 778
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


(1)
Message 346 of 412 (845196)
12-13-2018 9:26 AM
Reply to: Message 345 by AZPaul3
12-13-2018 9:16 AM


Re: Proud as an Eagle
Can someone please explain some of the details of the Irish situation in this controversy? What are the issues there?

The main issue to resolve is that the government is trying to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; which is still part of the UK.

The lack of a border was part of the original Good Friday agreement. When both the Republic of Ireland and the UK were part of the EU, this is a non issue since free movement between countries is part of the EU edict.

However, now that the UK is leaving the EU, this essentially eliminates the current 'soft border' that exists. To help alleviate this problem, Theresa May's current deal has an 'Irish Backstop' provision which allows Northern Ireland to operate somewhat independently from the rest of the UK to avoid the need for a hard border. But the provision in the deal leaves this situation very ambiguous and could theoretically exist indefinitely. This has caused deep concern for members of the UK parliament and the DUP in Ireland, since they are still strongly affiliated with the UK.

The following Youtube video explains May's deal in more details:


This message is a reply to:
 Message 345 by AZPaul3, posted 12-13-2018 9:16 AM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
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caffeine
Member
Posts: 1573
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.4


(1)
Message 347 of 412 (845199)
12-13-2018 9:54 AM
Reply to: Message 342 by PaulK
12-13-2018 12:17 AM


Re: No Brexit?
No Brexit is on the table in that the Government has the power to back out of Brexit.

The government does not have the power to back out now - it's already enacted into law. It would need to be Parliament actively deciding to reverse the EU withdrawal bill. There are several MPs who would rather leave without a deal than accept any deal that has a hope of being accepted by anyone else; and enough others who don't want to appear before their electors as the MP who ignored their referendum vote.

I think leaving without any deal is the most likely outcome at this point.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6497
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 348 of 412 (845200)
12-13-2018 10:07 AM
Reply to: Message 347 by caffeine
12-13-2018 9:54 AM


Re: No Brexit?
The fun bit is that there is no majority in Parliament for any of the options - including no deal - but there's a sufficient minority to veto any and all of the deals.

It's a Mexican stand off which I'm hoping will result in a referendum simply because they can't decide. Preferably with an option of 'ah, stuff it, might as well carry on with what we've got'.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 14630
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 349 of 412 (845211)
12-13-2018 11:16 AM


The stupidity, it BURNS
Nadine Dorries (Brexiteer) on Mayís deal.


But unfortunately, the future of the country and of our relationship with Europe is at stake. This deal gives us no voice, no votes, no MEPs, no commissioner.Ē

The Independent

I will grant that sheís talking about the transition period but thatís still pretty much the way it has to be. If weíre out of the EU we donít get a say. If we want to keep free trade going we have to follow some EU rules.


    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 778
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 350 of 412 (845213)
12-13-2018 12:15 PM
Reply to: Message 348 by Tangle
12-13-2018 10:07 AM


Re: No Brexit?
It's a Mexican stand off which I'm hoping will result in a referendum simply because they can't decide. Preferably with an option of 'ah, stuff it, might as well carry on with what we've got'.

The only way I see that happening is if Labour gets back into power.

A possible scenario would go something like this:
- May comes back with an updated deal. They vote on it and it fails.
- Labour triggers a vote of no confidence in the government.
- The DUP breaks ranks and side with Labour (as do some other MPs) giving them a majority
- As a result, a general election is called and Labour gains seats and is able to form a coalition with others to get a majority
- Labour calls for a second referendum re-asking the Brexit question

In all honesty, I see the above as a remote possibility. Now it is possible that if May's deal fails, she will finally recant and say the vote should go to the people. But then, what would that second referendum look like? Would it just re-hash the same question? Would it be a referendum on May's deal or no deal? Would it include a provision for cancelling Brexit? Becomes really complex at that stage.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 348 by Tangle, posted 12-13-2018 10:07 AM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 351 by Tangle, posted 12-13-2018 12:33 PM Diomedes has responded
 Message 352 by caffeine, posted 12-13-2018 12:59 PM Diomedes has responded

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6497
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.5


(2)
Message 351 of 412 (845214)
12-13-2018 12:33 PM
Reply to: Message 350 by Diomedes
12-13-2018 12:15 PM


Re: No Brexit?
I've decided that we'll have another referendum because that's what I want. I'm putting my fingers in my ears when anybody says anything else. It's a trick I've learned from Faith.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 350 by Diomedes, posted 12-13-2018 12:15 PM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 356 by Diomedes, posted 12-13-2018 3:17 PM Tangle has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1573
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 352 of 412 (845216)
12-13-2018 12:59 PM
Reply to: Message 350 by Diomedes
12-13-2018 12:15 PM


Re: No Brexit?
There are only 96 days and 5 hours till the UK leaves the EU. That's not a lot of time for your scenario to take place.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 350 by Diomedes, posted 12-13-2018 12:15 PM Diomedes has responded

Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 14630
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 353 of 412 (845217)
12-13-2018 1:03 PM
Reply to: Message 352 by caffeine
12-13-2018 12:59 PM


Re: No Brexit?
The Parliamentary vote wonít be until January, probably as late as May dares make it.

However, if thereís a General Election there will be an extension of the negotiating period. Unless the EU wants to bounce the U.K. into No Deal. And I donít think that they do.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 352 by caffeine, posted 12-13-2018 12:59 PM caffeine has not yet responded

    
Taq
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Posts: 7642
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.4


Message 354 of 412 (845221)
12-13-2018 2:03 PM
Reply to: Message 342 by PaulK
12-13-2018 12:17 AM


Re: No Brexit?
PaulK writes:

No Brexit is on the table in that the Government has the power to back out of Brexit. Whether Parliament has the will to do that is another matter. But at this stage the alternatives are so awful I wouldnít rule it out. Mayís deal is looking dead. A No Deal Brexit isnít any more popular. Going back to the drawing board and starting again isnít much better, either.

From what I have seen, the EU seems to be taking the "take it or leave it" path. It would be in the EU's best interest to make Brexit as painful as possible to keep the UK in within the EU.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 342 by PaulK, posted 12-13-2018 12:17 AM PaulK has not yet responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 778
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 355 of 412 (845229)
12-13-2018 2:45 PM
Reply to: Message 352 by caffeine
12-13-2018 12:59 PM


Re: No Brexit?
There are only 96 days and 5 hours till the UK leaves the EU. That's not a lot of time for your scenario to take place.

Agreed. In fact, I think it is a Hail Mary at best.

What I think is most plausible is that the deal either passes with a slim majority with some amendment to the Irish backstop. Or it fails and then the EU may be forced to take a softer approach to the whole situation to avoid a hard Brexit. I understand their desire to play hardball. But at some point, they must realize that having the second biggest economy in Europe get snafued is going to harm them as well.

The analogy I would use is California or Texas in the USA. Those are the two biggest economies by GDP and if something dire was affecting either of them, it would likely cascade everywhere. No state would be insulated.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 352 by caffeine, posted 12-13-2018 12:59 PM caffeine has not yet responded

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 778
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


(1)
Message 356 of 412 (845232)
12-13-2018 3:17 PM
Reply to: Message 351 by Tangle
12-13-2018 12:33 PM


Re: No Brexit?
I've decided that we'll have another referendum because that's what I want. I'm putting my fingers in my ears when anybody says anything else. It's a trick I've learned from Faith.

You might want to invest in one of these:


This message is a reply to:
 Message 351 by Tangle, posted 12-13-2018 12:33 PM Tangle has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3633
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 357 of 412 (845241)
12-13-2018 4:21 PM
Reply to: Message 346 by Diomedes
12-13-2018 9:26 AM


Re: Proud as an Eagle
The following Youtube video explains May's deal

Very helpful. Thank you.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 346 by Diomedes, posted 12-13-2018 9:26 AM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14630
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 358 of 412 (845458)
12-16-2018 5:16 AM


Sir Ivan Rogers on Brexit
Transcript

Itís time for the British public, the government and especially the Brexiteers to face reality.

Sir Ivan is a former U.K. representative to the EU


    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 778
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 359 of 412 (845593)
12-17-2018 3:21 PM
Reply to: Message 356 by Diomedes
12-13-2018 3:17 PM


Even more Brexit shenanigans
May has now stated that the vote for her deal will occur in January. And now, Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister.

https://www.reuters.com/...-brexit-vote-timing-idUSKBN1OG21B

quote:
The leader of Britainís main opposition Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, said he was calling for a no confidence vote in Prime Minister Theresa May ó a largely symbolic gesture ó for not putting her Brexit plan to a vote by lawmakers immediately.

I don't really understand this from a political perspective, but I am not that familiar with British politics. I thought May already dealt with a no confidence vote from her own party. And she survived that and cannot be challenged again for a year. Is it different because now the motion comes from the opposition? I thought they might be able to call a vote of no confidence in the government, but not the PM directly.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 14630
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 360 of 412 (845595)
12-17-2018 3:30 PM
Reply to: Message 359 by Diomedes
12-17-2018 3:21 PM


Re: Even more Brexit shenanigans
The No Confidence vote May survived was a Party issue. If she lost she would be on her way out as leader of the Tory Party.

If Corbyn has brought a No Confidence vote against the Government, winning would have brought down the government and probably lead to a General Election.

A Parliamentary vote of No Confidence in the Prime Minister, though, is just theatre. It makes a point about just how unpopular May is in Parliament, but that is it.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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