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Author Topic:   Important upcoming elections
Pressie
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Posts: 1964
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 61 of 79 (843040)
11-12-2018 3:52 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
03-19-2017 8:47 PM


Number of votes
A big thing that bothers me about US elections is that around 57% of the vote went for the Democrats and around 41% went towards the Republicans. It's a YUDGE difference. Yet, the Republicans gained 2 Senators (as of today). As an outsider, it seems as if the US is not a democracy at all.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.


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Replies to this message:
 Message 62 by Chiroptera, posted 11-12-2018 6:51 AM Pressie has responded
 Message 64 by xongsmith, posted 11-12-2018 12:43 PM Pressie has not yet responded

    
Chiroptera
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Posts: 6531
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 62 of 79 (843043)
11-12-2018 6:51 AM
Reply to: Message 61 by Pressie
11-12-2018 3:52 AM


Re: Number of votes
Yeah, the US Senate comes pre-gerrymandered.

Hell hath no fury like a white man scorned. If you take nothing else from the Senate’s confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, take that much. -- Kai Wright

This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by Pressie, posted 11-12-2018 3:52 AM Pressie has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 63 by Pressie, posted 11-12-2018 7:16 AM Chiroptera has not yet responded
 Message 65 by Pressie, posted 11-13-2018 5:14 AM Chiroptera has not yet responded

  
Pressie
Member
Posts: 1964
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 63 of 79 (843044)
11-12-2018 7:16 AM
Reply to: Message 62 by Chiroptera
11-12-2018 6:51 AM


Re: Number of votes
And pre-industrial revolution. It's YUDGE.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.


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 Message 62 by Chiroptera, posted 11-12-2018 6:51 AM Chiroptera has not yet responded

    
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 1863
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009


Message 64 of 79 (843055)
11-12-2018 12:43 PM
Reply to: Message 61 by Pressie
11-12-2018 3:52 AM


Re: Number of votes
Pressie writes:
A big thing that bothers me about US elections is that around 57% of the vote went for the Democrats and around 41% went towards the Republicans.

Only 1/3 of the Senate is up each 2 years. This year 23 Dems were being defended and only 10 Reps were being defended. 23/33 = 69.7% of the seats. Since this ~70% had voted Dems in the last time (6 years ago), it is not surprising they would be mostly still voting D. Next time the R's may have more defending to do.

Edited by xongsmith, : still still fix


- xongsmith, 5.7d

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Pressie
Member
Posts: 1964
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 65 of 79 (843085)
11-13-2018 5:14 AM
Reply to: Message 62 by Chiroptera
11-12-2018 6:51 AM


Re: Number of votes
No, not really. It comes from two senators from North Dakota representing around 670 000 thousand people having the same vote as the two senators from California with a population of around 40 million.

It is not a democratic system at all.


This message is a reply to:
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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 66 of 79 (843370)
11-17-2018 12:40 AM


Weak(?) Hispanic support for hopeful Democratic Governors caused looses.
I have been looking at exit polls, and they are being updated as we speak.

TEXAS

In Texas, Republican Gregg Abbott beat Democrat Lupe Valdex 55.8% to 42.5% with "99%" of the vote in.

Hispanics were 26% of the Texas vote, according to the exit polls.

Abott only lost Hispanics to Valdez 53% to 42%

Cruz lost Hispanics 64% to 35%, so if Valdez had gotten 64%, then he would have added 2.9% to his total vote percentage, making it about 45.4% (based on the numbers so far).

Abbott would be at around 53.9% had he only gotten 35% of the Hispanic vote, like Cruz did.

BUT BUT BUT, in Arizona, Kirsten Sinema got 70% of the Hispanic vote, and McSalley 30%.

That level of support would bring Valdez up to 46.9%

Abbott only getting 30% of the Hispanic vote, like Sinema's opponent, would bring him down to 50.1%.

So 50% to 47% instead of 56% to 42.5%.

It would not flip the race, but Cruz would have lost if his 64-35 loss, among Hispanics who turned out, would have been 69 to 30 instead. (Arizona's Senator-elect Sinema has 70-30 among Hispanics in the exit polls)

The 50.9% to 48.3% win for Cruz, would have been 49.6% for each.

ARIZONA

Sinema won 49.9% to 47.7%, and Hispanics were 18% of the Senate race voters, according to the exit polls.

Sinema won 70% of Hispanics, according to the exit polls.

But in the Governor's race, Republican Doug Ducey won 56.1% to 41.7%.

He lost the Hispanic vote, which was 19% in the Governor's race, 56% to 44%.

We would be looking at a 53% to 45% race, in favor of the Republican, had the Republican Governor faced the same level of Hispanic opposition as the GOP Senatorial candidate.

FLORIDA

Rick Scott seems to have won the Senate race 50.1% to 49.9%

Republicans won the Governorship 49.6% to 49.2%

Hispanics were 15% of the vote.

The Republican Governor-elect lost Hispanics 54% to 44%

The Republican Senator-elect (outgoing Governor) lost Hispanics 54% to 45%.

Look at the Governor races in Texas, Arizona, and Florida.Hispanics, in a very racially explosive year (against Republicans if you look at the minority voter), still limited their support for Democrats to the mid 50s percentage range for these three states.And the Senate races were a mixed bag, with Hispanics supporting the Democratic candidates anywhere from 54% to 64% to 70%.

Florida was lost due to weak Hispanic support.

GEORGIA

The Republican won 50.2% to 48.8%.

Hispanics were 5% of the vote.

Hispanics voted 62% to 37% for the Democrat.

But, take the Republican down to 32.5% to 33.0% Hispanic support, and he is suddenly below 50.0% and there would be a runnoff.

Give the Democrat 70% Hispanic support, instead of 62%, and the total electoral support is 49.2% for the Democrat.

Give the Republican 30%, instead of 37%, and the total electoral support is about 49.8%.

That would still be a narrow win for the Republican, but higher Hispanic turnout (6.5% of the vote verses an even 5%), combined with higher levels of support (70% verses 62%), would flip the race.

(the imaginary higher-Hispanic-turnout scenario, above, would not give enough support to the Democrat to avoid a runnoff, but it would give a slightly higher vote total than the Republican)

CONCLUSION

Governor's races:

So, Florida, and perhaps Georgia would have been Democratic wins, with a level of Hispanic support on par with the kind Kirsten Sinema got in the Arizona Senate race. (Florida was so close, that just a SLIGHT sliver more Hispanic support than the 54-55% Democratic candidate got would have flipped races)

Texas would have been 50% to 47%

Arizona would have been 53% to 45%

Senate races:

(Georgia had no race)

Cruz would have lost, had he only gotten 30%, like McSalley got in Arizona, and his Democratic candidate performed the same as Sinema.

Florida would have flipped with an almost undetectably higher level of Hispanic support for Nelson.

Sinema actually won in Arizona, but her 70% to 30% win among Hispanics made all the difference. All the other Gubernatorial and Senatorial races saw the Democratic candidate do no better, and often much worse, than 62%.

The 62% to 37% Democratic Gubernatorial candidate percentage from Hispanics was by far the next highest level of support, in the races we are looking at. (oops, forgot about Cruz loosing 64% to 35%)

Give McSalley 35% of the Hispanic vote,like the Texas GOP situation, as opposed to the 30% she actually got, and she has 48.6%, instead of 47.7%

(Take Sinema's actual Hispanic vote of 70%, down to 64%, like the Texas Democrat O Rourke got, and Sinema is at 48.8%)

(Sinema still narrowly wins 48.8% to 48.6%, if you give her the same overall support as O Rourke and Cruz got)

Give McSalley 37%,like the Georgia GOP situation, and she is at 49.0%

Take Sinema's Hispanic support down to 62%,like the Democratic Gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, and she is at 48.4%

So the relatively good performance of the Georgia Democratic candidate, would have been too little support for Sinema to win the Arizona Senate race.

Arizona, Florida, and Texas were Senate races just looked at.

All three Senate races, in these important states, were decided by Hispanic voters.

(add to that the Georgia situation, and you have 4 "states of the future" for Democrats to look at, along with North Carolina) (Trump won all 5 by less than 6.0%)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 67 of 79 (843371)
11-17-2018 12:57 AM


5 States of the Future.
Florida (Trump won by 1.1%

Arizona (Trump won by 3.5%)

North Carolina (Trump won by 3.6%)

Georgia (Trump won by 4.8% to 5.8% if I remember correctly)

Texas (Trump won by 9.0%, so my "6 percent" number, in the previous post, was wrong, but it doesn't affect the Senate or Governor race numbers in the rpevious post)


    
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 68 of 79 (843517)
11-18-2018 7:29 PM


12 close Texas U.S. Congressional races (Democrats won 2)
First the 2 races the Democrats won.

Pete Sessions of Dallas lost to Collin Allred.

John Culberson of Houston lost to Liz Fletcher.

Now the other 10.

(the higher perecntage is the Republican)

District 2

Dan Crenshaw 52.9%
Todd Litton 45.5%

District 3

Van Taylor 54.3%
Lorie Burch 44.2%

District 6

Ron Wright 53.1%
Jana Lynne Sanchez 45.4%

District 10

Michael McCaul 50.9%
Mike Siegel 46.9%

District 21

Chip Roy 50.3%
Joseph Kopser 47.5%

District 22

Pete Olson 51.4%
Sri Kulkarni 46.4%

District 23

Will Hurd 49.2
Gina Ortiz Jones 48.7

District 24

Kenny Marchant 51.6%
Jan McDowell 48.4%

District 25

Roger Williams 53.6
Julie Oliver 44.7

District 31

John Carter 50.6%
Mary Jennings Hegar 47.6%


    
Pressie
Member
Posts: 1964
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 69 of 79 (843536)
11-19-2018 6:03 AM


Well, the Democratic Party is of 232 seats in the House as of today. 3 seats still outstanding.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.


    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 70 of 79 (843840)
11-21-2018 8:16 PM


Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
See these 2 links for presidental vote (in 2008,2012, and 2016) in all 435 districts, plus the name and party of most recently elected congressman, to the district, will be shown.

https://www.dailykos.com/...rict-for-the-2012-2008-elections

https://docs.google.com/...H2HqsCzMe0pR8QmD1K8jk8/edit#gid=0

Take Dan Crenshaw and district 2. McCain beat Obama 62% to 37%, while Romeny won 63% to 36%. Trump only won 52% to 43%.

Take District 3, where Romney won 64% to 34%, but Trump only won 55% to 41%.

These are still seemingly strong Republican districts, but, then again, Trump won Texas, as a whole, 52% to 43%, yet Cruz almost lost in 2018.

There are lots of (temporary or longer?) Republican vulnerabilities, even in heavily Republican (voting) districts.

Look at New Mexico-2 , where Obama lost 50% to 48% to McCain, 52% to 45% to Romney, and Hillary Clinton lost by 11% to Trump. Democrats just took this seat (surely to loose it in 2-4 years, however) in a big upset.

Even southern New Mexico is difficult for Republicans in a post Trump era (though Trump won it 50% to 39% over Hillary)

See all congressional races, and exit polls in this link below. (scroll to bottom for numbers from each state)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/az


Replies to this message:
 Message 71 by Faith, posted 11-21-2018 9:37 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

    
Faith
Member
Posts: 30161
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 71 of 79 (843842)
11-21-2018 9:37 PM
Reply to: Message 70 by LamarkNewAge
11-21-2018 8:16 PM


Re: Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
YOu seem to be ignoring the main overall fact about Midterm elections which is that they always reverse the wins of the incumbent administration, and in this case Trump fared a lot better than previous Presdients, Clinton losing 52 house seats and seven Senate seats, Obama losing 63 House seats and some number of Senate seats, and something similar was true for the Bushes, while Trump lost only 30 something House seats and actually gained a couple or three Senate seats.

Edited by Faith, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 70 by LamarkNewAge, posted 11-21-2018 8:16 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 72 by LamarkNewAge, posted 11-21-2018 10:48 PM Faith has responded
 Message 77 by Taq, posted 12-03-2018 5:41 PM Faith has responded

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 72 of 79 (843849)
11-21-2018 10:48 PM
Reply to: Message 71 by Faith
11-21-2018 9:37 PM


Re: Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
Going from memory, here is what happened in the last 30 years.

Bush won in 1988

The 1990 midterms produced a 267-167 Democratic majority in the House, and 56 to 44 Democratic Senate majority.

(conservative Democrats, as always was the case, gave the Republicans control over what passed though)

Clinton won in 1992

The 1994 midterms gave Republicans a 230 - 204 House majority and a 53 to 47 Senate majority.

Clinton won in 1996

The 1998 midterms gave Republicans a 223 - 211 House majority and a 55 to 45 Senate majority.

Bush won in 2000

The 2002 mid-terms gave Republicans a 229 - 205 House majority and a 51 to 49 Senate majority.

Bush won in 2004

The 2006 midterms gave Democrats a 233 to 202 House majority and a 51 to 49 Senate majority.

Obama won in 2008

The 2010 midterms gave Republicans around 240 seats in the House while Democrats held the Senate 53 to 47.

Obama won in 2012

In 2014, Republicans won a 54 to 46 Senate majority and a House majority of about 243 to 192.

Trump won in 2016

Democrats will have between 232 and 234 seats in the House and 47 in the Senate.

(Republicans took North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida from the Democrats while Democrats took Nevada and Arizona from the Republicans. A net change of 2 seats for the Republicans)

quote:

Trump fared a lot better than previous Presdients

His overall Senate majority fared better than most Presidents in recent(as in the last 3 decades) memory (though Democrats actually won about 70% of the Senate races in 2018).

But the House isn't "a lot better" than previous (recent) Presidents, and might actually be seen as worse.

Clinton saw the Democrats emerge with anywhere from 204 to 211 seats in his two mid-term elections. Add independent Bernie Sanders to that total, and the low water mark was 205 Democratic congressmen elected during the November 1994 mid-terms.

Bush saw 229 Republicans elected in 2002, and 202 in 2006.

(Trump will be worse off than Clinton's 2 midterm elections, and perhaps the same as the low-water Bush midterm)

Obama only saw 192 to 195 Democrats elected in his two midterm elections, so Trump (sort of) blew that performance away.

I suppose that last 3 mid-term elections (2006, 1010, and 2014) can be seen as having incumbent Presidents who saw their respective parties, loose (on average) 5 to 6 more House races in the mid-term elections than Trump's 2018 Republican congressmen/congresswomen.

That still works out to roughly 1% (less than 1.5%) of the 435 member House body.

(Obama's 2010 Democrats matched Trump's 53-47 PRESENT post-2018 election Senate majority, but Obama's Democratic House candidates only won around 195 or so seats, while Trump will have 201-203)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 71 by Faith, posted 11-21-2018 9:37 PM Faith has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 73 by Faith, posted 11-22-2018 1:46 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

    
Faith
Member
Posts: 30161
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 73 of 79 (843882)
11-22-2018 1:46 PM
Reply to: Message 72 by LamarkNewAge
11-21-2018 10:48 PM


Re: Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
I think it says a lot more about the mood of the country to note how many seats were won or lost, than the situation you describe.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 72 by LamarkNewAge, posted 11-21-2018 10:48 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 74 by LamarkNewAge, posted 11-22-2018 4:04 PM Faith has responded

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 74 of 79 (843909)
11-22-2018 4:04 PM
Reply to: Message 73 by Faith
11-22-2018 1:46 PM


Re: Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
I didn't describe anything.

I just gave raw numbers of what was won or lost.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 73 by Faith, posted 11-22-2018 1:46 PM Faith has responded

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Faith
Member
Posts: 30161
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 75 of 79 (843910)
11-22-2018 4:08 PM
Reply to: Message 74 by LamarkNewAge
11-22-2018 4:04 PM


Re: Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
You didn't give the number of seats won or lost, just the resultant total.

Edited by Faith, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 74 by LamarkNewAge, posted 11-22-2018 4:04 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
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