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Author Topic:   Debunking the Evolutionary God of 'Selection'
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 36 of 323 (806193)
04-23-2017 4:44 PM
Reply to: Message 35 by Percy
04-23-2017 4:33 PM


Re: Probability
What we're talking about here is the binomial distribution.
The probability of getting exactly 50 heads is the product of the probability of one way of getting exactly 50 heads (0.5 raised to the power 100) and the number of different ways that 50 heads can come up (100 choose 50, or 100!/50!50!). Many calculators have a binomial coefficient function (sometimes called the number of combinations).
If I input the numbers into my calculator correctly, I got a probability of slightly less than 0.08.
Added by edit: Oops, I misread the numbers. That's 500 heads out of 1000 tosses. And reading Percy's comment more carefully, he already got this. My apologies.
Edited by Chiroptera, : No reason given.

I believe in a relatively equal society, supported by institutions that limit extremes of wealth and poverty. I believe in democracy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. That makes me a liberal, and I’m proud of it. -- Paul Krugman

This message is a reply to:
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Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 39 of 323 (806197)
04-23-2017 5:24 PM
Reply to: Message 38 by Tangle
04-23-2017 5:08 PM


Sorry, I'm now full-metal pedant.
If you toss a coin 1000 times, the probability is less than 1 out of 20 that the number of heads will be less than 468 or greater than 532.
That is, the 95% confidence interval for the proportion of heads is 0.500 plus or minus 0.032.

I believe in a relatively equal society, supported by institutions that limit extremes of wealth and poverty. I believe in democracy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. That makes me a liberal, and I’m proud of it. -- Paul Krugman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 38 by Tangle, posted 04-23-2017 5:08 PM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 44 by Davidjay, posted 04-24-2017 11:42 AM Chiroptera has replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 51 of 323 (806314)
04-24-2017 12:24 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by Davidjay
04-24-2017 11:42 AM


Re: Benefical Mutation probability is ZERO
when the probability of a benefical mutation ever taking hold is ZERO in one generation, then in the following generation it's probability is zero as well.
Uh, I was talking about the likelihood of coin tosses landing heads. But thank, Davidjay!
-
SEE Evolution is a Racist Doctrine
I actually did leave a post there: Message 100
Unfortunately, no one thought it worth a response!

I believe in a relatively equal society, supported by institutions that limit extremes of wealth and poverty. I believe in democracy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. That makes me a liberal, and I’m proud of it. -- Paul Krugman

This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by Davidjay, posted 04-24-2017 11:42 AM Davidjay has not replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 306 of 323 (812032)
06-14-2017 11:43 AM
Reply to: Message 304 by Vlad
06-14-2017 8:36 AM


Re: Eyes issue
Well, what would Darwinists invent in order to elucidate the strange case of Tripedalia cystophora eyes? Has non-random NS tooled box jellyfish up with the excellent yet absolutely useless eyes?
Well, a Darwinist would ask whether a box jellyfish can survive and reproduce better with these eyes than with no eyes. And a Darwinist would ask whether these eyes can arise through small changes, with each new change conferring a survival and reproductive advantage.
As long as the answers are "yes", then that's all the theory of evolution needs to work.

Freedom is merely privilege extended, unless enjoyed by one and all. — Billy Bragg

This message is a reply to:
 Message 304 by Vlad, posted 06-14-2017 8:36 AM Vlad has not replied

  
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