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Author Topic:   The Eclipse Conspiracy
ProtoTypical
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Posts: 1759
From: Ontario Canada
Joined: 08-04-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


(1)
Message 46 of 57 (818330)
08-27-2017 8:08 AM
Reply to: Message 44 by NoNukes
08-25-2017 12:25 AM


Re: Why can't I see one?
All of those things make the eclipse cycles complex,

Makes it all the more astounding that they could predict these things 2k yrs ago.

Speaking of conspiracies, why is science good enough to predict an eclipse but not good enough to predict global warming?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by NoNukes, posted 08-25-2017 12:25 AM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 47 by Coragyps, posted 08-27-2017 10:55 AM ProtoTypical has acknowledged this reply
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Coragyps
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Posts: 5295
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 47 of 57 (818345)
08-27-2017 10:55 AM
Reply to: Message 46 by ProtoTypical
08-27-2017 8:08 AM


Re: Why can't I see one?
Because of the butterfly effect. No butterflies are flapping their wings and creating chaos in orbit.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by ProtoTypical, posted 08-27-2017 8:08 AM ProtoTypical has acknowledged this reply

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caffeine
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Posts: 1349
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 48 of 57 (818356)
08-27-2017 1:30 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by Coragyps
08-27-2017 10:55 AM


Re: Why can't I see one?
Because of the butterfly effect. No butterflies are flapping their wings and creating chaos in orbit.

The solar system is also chaotic; but the timescales on which small changes in initial conditions matter are a lot longer.

Thanks for all responses. In conclusion, I need to plan a trip at some point.


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NosyNed
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Posts: 8800
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
Member Rating: 10.0


(1)
Message 49 of 57 (818357)
08-27-2017 2:07 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by caffeine
08-27-2017 1:30 PM


Off to see the Jar
We are all going to visit Jar in 2024. He is close to the optimal location.
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Tanypteryx
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Posts: 1589
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.9


(1)
Message 50 of 57 (818362)
08-27-2017 2:54 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by NosyNed
08-27-2017 2:07 PM


Re: Off to see the Jar
We are all going to visit Jar in 2024. He is close to the optimal location.

Road trip! I'm in!


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


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jar
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Posts: 29612
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.9


Message 51 of 57 (818364)
08-27-2017 3:01 PM


Almost total in 2023 as well.

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/mcallen?iso=20...

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/mcallen?iso=20...


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 1589
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.9


(2)
Message 52 of 57 (818366)
08-27-2017 3:17 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by jar
08-27-2017 3:01 PM


Almost total in 2023 as well.

Another case where "almost" just doesn't cut it!


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


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 Message 51 by jar, posted 08-27-2017 3:01 PM jar has not yet responded

    
NoNukes
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Posts: 10062
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 1.8


(1)
Message 53 of 57 (818390)
08-27-2017 11:33 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by ProtoTypical
08-27-2017 8:08 AM


Re: Why can't I see one?
Makes it all the more astounding that they could predict these things 2k yrs ago.

Some solar eclipses are more predictable than others. There is a Saros cycle under which a series of eclipses repeats every 18 years 11 days and 8 hours. Because of the fraction days + fraction, the earth rotates between those cycles so that the path of totality rotates. Every 3 Saros cycles there is another eclipse on the same side of the earth on a roughly parallel path.

So eclipses of a given Saros cycle are predictable. But there are more than one saros cycles in operation at a given time[1], so if you are only looking at eclipses on a single Saros cycle you will miss many eclipses. But the first predictions were of subsequent eclipses from the same Saros cycle.

A single human is able to observe several repeats of the same Saros cycle, so it is possible for a single human to pick up the pattern during his lifetime.

[1] Active Saros cycles for 20 and 21st-century http://members.bitstream.net/bunlion/bpi/ActSaros.html


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I was thinking as long as I have my hands up … they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking — they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith

I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith


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xongsmith
Member
Posts: 1819
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 2.6


(1)
Message 54 of 57 (818445)
08-28-2017 2:31 PM
Reply to: Message 53 by NoNukes
08-27-2017 11:33 PM


Re: Why can't I see one?
There are also the 56 Aubrey holes around Stonehenge. These are suspected by some to mark the lunar eclipse cycle. 56 = 19 + 19 + 18, approximating the 18.61 cycle 3 times.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_holes


- xongsmith, 5.7d

This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by NoNukes, posted 08-27-2017 11:33 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by NoNukes, posted 08-28-2017 6:28 PM xongsmith has responded

    
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 10062
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 1.8


(1)
Message 55 of 57 (818454)
08-28-2017 6:28 PM
Reply to: Message 54 by xongsmith
08-28-2017 2:31 PM


Re: Why can't I see one?
There are also the 56 Aubrey holes around Stonehenge.

I was going to complain about the math, but I won't.

The Wikipedia article indicates that this particular "hole" theory does not work.

quote:
More recent examination, notably by Richard Atkinson, has proved Hawkins largely wrong as it is now established that the different features at the monument that he tried to incorporate into many of his alignment theories were in use at different times and could not have worked alone, the lateness of the installation of the Heel Stone being the final nail in the coffin. Furthermore, the 56-year period is not in fact a reliable method of predicting eclipses and it is now accepted that they never repeat their date and position over three consecutive 18.61-year-long lunar cycles.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I was thinking as long as I have my hands up … they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking — they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith

I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith


This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by xongsmith, posted 08-28-2017 2:31 PM xongsmith has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by xongsmith, posted 08-28-2017 9:59 PM NoNukes has responded

    
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 1819
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 56 of 57 (818463)
08-28-2017 9:59 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by NoNukes
08-28-2017 6:28 PM


Re: Aubrey holes shot full of holes.
NoNukes writes:

The Wikipedia article indicates that this particular "hole" theory does not work.

Exactly why I used the word "some". I remember watching Dawkins' show back then and being excited that it was possibly being used as a calculator back then.


- xongsmith, 5.7d

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by NoNukes, posted 08-28-2017 6:28 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by NoNukes, posted 08-29-2017 9:08 AM xongsmith has not yet responded

    
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 10062
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 1.8


(2)
Message 57 of 57 (818476)
08-29-2017 9:08 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by xongsmith
08-28-2017 9:59 PM


Re: Aubrey holes shot full of holes.
I remember watching Dawkins' show back then and being excited that it was possibly being used as a calculator back then.

Yeah, me too. I remember getting excited about some earlier presentations about Stonehenge as an astronomical calculator, but to date, most of the hypotheses that involve the moon have been debunked.

In particular, though, the Saros cycle is 18 years 11.3 days. Not 18.61 years. The Saros cycle does work for predicting eclipses.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

I was thinking as long as I have my hands up … they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking — they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith

I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith


This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by xongsmith, posted 08-28-2017 9:59 PM xongsmith has not yet responded

    
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