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Author Topic:   What if:
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 1 of 38 (836954)
07-24-2018 6:57 PM


China ignores US sanctions on Iranian Oil and in fact increases its purchases of Iranian oil?
China decides to sell off it's over one trillion dollars in US Treasury Bonds and stop buying new US Treasury Bonds?
China devalues the Yuan?
China opens Free Trade negotiations with Europe, Canada, Mexico?
China joins the Trans Pacific Partnership that Trump pulled the US out of?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Stile, posted 07-25-2018 10:24 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


(1)
Message 3 of 38 (837061)
07-26-2018 9:20 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Stile
07-25-2018 10:24 AM


the Iranian Variation
I forgot one that is a variation of "China decides to sell off it's over one trillion dollars in US Treasury Bonds and stop buying new US Treasury Bonds?".
What If China swaps the over one trillion dollars in US Treasury Bonds for Iranian Oil? Currently Iranian oil is about $70.00 a barrel IIRC and China has been buying 620,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day.
What if Iran held over a trillion dollars of US Treasury Bonds?
Edited by jar, : on should have an "e"

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Stile, posted 07-25-2018 10:24 AM Stile has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Stile, posted 07-26-2018 10:17 AM jar has replied
 Message 8 by Phat, posted 07-26-2018 12:07 PM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


(2)
Message 7 of 38 (837068)
07-26-2018 11:39 AM
Reply to: Message 4 by Stile
07-26-2018 10:17 AM


Re: China's different tactics
Stile writes:
How does this sort of tactic work into your What if questions?
Are there other sorts of large-industries where China could simply cancel their expected actions?
There are many such options and all the options point towards the same results; Trade Wars are NOT easy to win.
Back in 1946 Irving Berlin wrote a great little song for the Broadway Play "Annie Get your Gun" called Anything you can do I can do better...
Well China is a nation of pretty bright educated thinkers. It is a large nation with a large educated population to draw talent from. It has a command type capitalist economy with a strong technological base. It can build planes and boats and computers and phones and cars and trains and produce steel and aluminum.
According to WWW.Mining.Com
"China is the leader in mining gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, iron ore, coal, tin, tungsten, rare earths, graphite, vanadium, antimony and phosphate, and holds second place in mine production of copper, silver, cobalt, bauxite/alumina and manganese."
China exports raw materials mainly because there is not a large domestic demand; but if the State decided to ramp up manufacture of finished products they could become direct competitors of Boeing and GM and Ford and Fiat/Chrysler and ...
... and by joining in the free trade agreements that the US abandons quickly become a dominate player in the marketplace.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

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jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


(1)
Message 10 of 38 (837074)
07-26-2018 12:34 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Phat
07-26-2018 12:07 PM


Re: the Iranian Variation
Phat writes:
Of course, if China then added gasoline to the trade war fire by swapping treasury notes for oil, as an example...it would clearly be an act of war.
While in reality or a reality based society that could never be considered an act of war in the alternate society Trump is trying to create, a society based on desire and fantasy it could certainly be used as an excuse for war.
Real wars are even harder to win than Trade Wars.
Edited by jar, : appling spallin

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Phat, posted 07-26-2018 12:07 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by Phat, posted 07-26-2018 1:14 PM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 12 of 38 (837082)
07-26-2018 4:17 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by Phat
07-26-2018 1:14 PM


Re: the Iranian Variation
It's not a game.
All great empires eventually learn that fact.
Wresting the US away from globalization simply means the rest of the world will get along just fine; the already rich will get alone just fine.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Phat, posted 07-26-2018 1:14 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by Phat, posted 07-27-2018 5:53 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 17 of 38 (837123)
07-27-2018 7:33 AM
Reply to: Message 16 by Phat
07-27-2018 5:53 AM


Re: The Bill Gets Paid
Phat writes:
Trump himself has undergone personal bankruptcies before and may feel that a US default and bankruptcy is inevitable.
No Phat, Trump has never gone through personal bankruptcy; it has been the companies and their employees that have suffered bankruptcy.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 22 of 38 (837238)
07-29-2018 7:13 AM
Reply to: Message 21 by Phat
07-29-2018 6:03 AM


Re: The Bill Gets Paid
Phat writes:
But how do we keep China from taking over everything??
What?
Just how could China take over everything?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by Phat, posted 07-29-2018 6:03 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by Phat, posted 07-29-2018 9:54 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 24 of 38 (837241)
07-29-2018 10:04 AM
Reply to: Message 23 by Phat
07-29-2018 9:54 AM


Re: The Bill Gets Paid
Phat writes:
If our dollar loses its global reserve currency status, things will cost a lot more here relative to our wealth. Our lifestyle will suffer and the populists really will be growling about Globalization then, once we are no longer top dog.
LOL
Sorry but the value of a dollar will still vary relative to other currencies regardless of whether the US dollar is the global reserve currency or not.
Phat writes:
It explains how China is poised to dominate globally in the tech (information/smartphone/financial business.)
The answer to that is to educate our population so that we can be competitive with China and India and the EU and Brazil and the rest of the world. Retreating into a fantasy based society instead of a reality based society ain't gonna help.
When we vacate a position in the world stage by opting out of treaties and global commerce organizations we simply open a door for China and India and Brazil and Indonesia and the Eu and the rest of the world to enter.
What happens when a baseball team shows up with only eight players?
What happens when a team does not even show up for a game?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by Phat, posted 07-29-2018 9:54 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 25 by Phat, posted 07-29-2018 1:24 PM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 26 of 38 (837255)
07-29-2018 1:50 PM
Reply to: Message 25 by Phat
07-29-2018 1:24 PM


Re: The Bill Gets Paid
Phat writes:
If our economy unravels and the rest of the world abandons us as the chief reserve currency, it will cost more to borrow! That's what I am saying...this may end up being a significant effect felt here domestically.
Sheesh.
Think Phat.
If we place tariffs on products from overseas will they cost more when bought here?
If the holders of current Treasury Bonds sell their bonds will we have to increase the interest rate on new Treasury Bonds to make them worth anyone buying them?
Regardless of whether the dollar remains the Reserve Currency the issues you fear can happen.
And yes. It's increasingly likely that the US remains a significant factor in world commerce if we keep pissing off those other trading spheres.
The EU does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner.
China does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner.
India does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner.
The rest of the world does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by Phat, posted 07-29-2018 1:24 PM Phat has not replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 28 of 38 (837355)
07-30-2018 7:28 PM


Speaking of Treasury Bonds...
Speaking of Treasury Bonds... since November 2017 Russia has dumped over 80% of the US Treasury bonds that it held. That was far less than the over a trillion dollars in Treasury Bonds held by China but in November 2017 (what happened then? ) Russia held over 105 billion dollars in US Treasuries but by May 2018 that figure was down to less than 15 billion dollars in US Treasury Bonds.
Russia is a small player when it comes to US Treasury Bonds but it is interesting that Russia decided that there were safer more profitable and productive places to invest than US Treasury Bonds.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 29 by Phat, posted 08-07-2018 10:53 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 30 of 38 (837665)
08-07-2018 11:07 AM
Reply to: Message 29 by Phat
08-07-2018 10:53 AM


Re: Speaking of Treasury Bonds...and Gold
LOL
Too funny.
Where is gold used?

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by Phat, posted 08-07-2018 10:53 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 31 by Phat, posted 08-07-2018 11:09 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 32 of 38 (837670)
08-07-2018 11:20 AM
Reply to: Message 31 by Phat
08-07-2018 11:09 AM


Re: Speaking of Treasury Bonds...and Gold
My point is that high tech and industrial uses in China are growing very rapidly and will use vast quantities of gold and other precious metals.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by Phat, posted 08-07-2018 11:09 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by Phat, posted 08-07-2018 11:31 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 395 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 34 of 38 (837675)
08-07-2018 11:45 AM
Reply to: Message 33 by Phat
08-07-2018 11:31 AM


Re: Speaking of Treasury Bonds...and Gold
LOL
And far more is used as jewelry which is far more portable than bullion.
If the US dollar tanks then everyone else in the world would be positioned to profit from our demise.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by Phat, posted 08-07-2018 11:31 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
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