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Author Topic:   the old improbable probability problem
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7799
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 25 of 76 (250130)
10-08-2005 5:40 PM


Probabilities can work both ways
I was going to put this into a new thread of its own, but this seems like a good place to put it
I'm going to begin by introducing you all to an old friend. Many of you already know him, but for those who don't here he is: Cytochrome C. He's an essential protein found in pretty much all life on earth.
I'm also going to indulge in some friendly scorn. Creationists are happy to throw some ball park numbers around to get an idea of improbability. I am going to do a bit of that.
There are at least 2.3 x 1093 different amino acid sequences that would result in functional cytochrome c1.
For comparison there are about 1079 atoms in the visible universe2. According to some creationist's position a probability of 1 in 2.3 x 1093 would be very impossible...or at least as close as warrants it. So let's take the cytochrome c protein we find in humans. The chances of another organism having an identical amino acid sequence in cytochrome c meets the above (im)probability.
Chimpanzees meet the bill. Astonishing. Not only has one organism got an identical sequence, but it is one that is most morphologically similar to us. When we look at the fact that a trend arises through the biological orders, the chances start to get more and more slim. What are the chances that primates have a more similar cyto c protein
than other mammals, which share more similarity with one another than they do with reptiles and birds, which share more similarity with one another than they with amphibians which share more similarities than they do with fish...the odds start to get madly improbable.
Lets pull out some figures here. A turtle has ony 15 (of 104) amino acid differences with humans3. That is, from an amino acid sequence point of view they are 86% similar. I don't have the data to work out exactly the probability that it would be this similar but let's just guestimate that it would be 86% of 2.3 x 1093. The orders of magnitude end up being largely the same. Let's simplify everything here. The chances that two mammals would have the same sequence, reptiles would slightly different (15 amino acids), amphibians a little more different (18 amino acids) and fish being a little more different again (21 amino acids) can be guestimated at:
1093 x 1093 x 1093 x 1093
or
(1093)4 = 1 x 10372
And this is just for four organisms. If we start to consider that when we look at all organisms, they follow this same trend. And not just on one protien, but throughout the entire genome. The mathematical odds go from plane ludicrous to utterly mind bending heights.

Conclusion


This can be explained in only two ways.
1) Heredity, an observed process which would explain what we see fully.
2) Deity (or other Intelligent Designer), an unobserved process
Not only does the recent-baramin-creation God seem determined to allow no proof or evidence of his existence but he seems determined to leave evidence that he doesn't exist. Is He just trying to test our faith? Has Satan influenced God so much as to allow him to fiddle the genome?

Sources

1Yockey, H. P. (1992) Information Theory and Molecular Biology. New York, Cambridge University Press.
2Calculation can be found HERE
3Comparisons of molecules (proteins, DNA) of various species provide independent and compelling support for the hypothesis of biological macro-evolution, David E. Thomas

Replies to this message:
 Message 26 by RAZD, posted 10-08-2005 6:46 PM Modulous has not replied

  
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