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Author Topic:   Age Correlations, step by step.
simple 
Inactive Member


Message 61 of 130 (309292)
05-05-2006 3:50 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by LinearAq
05-04-2006 4:11 PM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
quote:
I'm a bit confused here. Are you saying that since we can't demonstrate that things worked the same in the past as they do now, then we can't have any idea about how things were in the past?
Well, if you can't have any idea how they worked, how can you also have an idea how they worked? Either we do or don't.
quote:
What about the recent past?..
That we know. I am not a silly last thursdayist.
quote:
If we can say that these laws worked the same as ten minutes ago as they do now, what allows us to do so? What allows us to assume the same physics ten minutes ago and not 10 million years ago?
We observed the recent past, not millions of years ago, or the future. We have history. We have many things that we know about the recent past up to thousands of years ago. That's it.
quote:
Does this apply to spacial displacement also? Are you also saying that we can't demonstrate that the laws of physics apply equally to the place I am and to the place I am not?
No, I would think that they apply to all our physical universe. But this is according to the bible a temporary universe.
quote:
How does this new-found doubt about the past affect our ability to convict a murderer using forensic evidence? (actually not evidence since we can't trust that physics was the same yesterday.)
It doesn't. Good science is still good. Unless the guy is over 4400 years old.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by LinearAq, posted 05-04-2006 4:11 PM LinearAq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 66 by ikabod, posted 05-05-2006 5:50 AM simple has replied
 Message 68 by JonF, posted 05-05-2006 7:42 AM simple has replied
 Message 71 by mark24, posted 05-05-2006 11:02 AM simple has replied
 Message 84 by lfen, posted 05-06-2006 3:18 AM simple has replied
 Message 97 by fallacycop, posted 05-07-2006 1:29 AM simple has replied

  
simple 
Inactive Member


Message 62 of 130 (309293)
05-05-2006 3:53 AM
Reply to: Message 50 by SuperNintendo Chalmers
05-04-2006 3:56 PM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
I can also demonstrate it works! I like it. It is science. Now, as for the deep past, why, you have no idea how that worked.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 50 by SuperNintendo Chalmers, posted 05-04-2006 3:56 PM SuperNintendo Chalmers has not replied

  
simple 
Inactive Member


Message 63 of 130 (309295)
05-05-2006 3:54 AM
Reply to: Message 34 by JonF
05-04-2006 3:19 PM


Re: universal constants
The claims I am familiar with. Unsubstansiated are they.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by JonF, posted 05-04-2006 3:19 PM JonF has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 69 by JonF, posted 05-05-2006 7:44 AM simple has replied

  
simple 
Inactive Member


Message 64 of 130 (309296)
05-05-2006 3:56 AM
Reply to: Message 45 by SuperNintendo Chalmers
05-04-2006 3:49 PM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
When is a change coming? That is for science to find out, and me to know.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by SuperNintendo Chalmers, posted 05-04-2006 3:49 PM SuperNintendo Chalmers has not replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 65 of 130 (309297)
05-05-2006 5:00 AM
Reply to: Message 36 by simple
05-04-2006 3:23 PM


Your Bank Balance Is Zero
If you can demonstrate that the past was of necessity under the same physical laws we now are, and that we also will in the future, you might have a point. As it is, your arguements are present based conjectures only. Less than magic. The basic premise that this created universe was fundamentally different, and will be again trumps you claim it was the same. Your sole point is that is must follow today's temporary physical universe's laws, yet you can provide no reasons at all it must be so bound. Just cause evrything you learned and think you know is wrapped up in that empty premise doesn't mean anyone has to accept it at your word. We need evidence. Otherwise, keep your beliefs to yourself, and out of the schools.
If you can demonstrate that in the past we had the same monetary laws we now have, and that we also will in the future, you might have a point. As it is, your arguments are at present based on conjectures only. Less than magic. The basic premise that your money originally belonged to us, and will again, trumps your claim it is yours. Your sole point is that it must follow today's monetary laws, yet you can provide no reasons at all it must be so bound. Just because everything you learned and think you know is wrapped up in that empty premise doesn't mean anyone has to accept it at your word. We need your money. So keep your beliefs to yourself, and hand over your money. Now!

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 36 by simple, posted 05-04-2006 3:23 PM simple has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 75 by simple, posted 05-06-2006 1:16 AM Parasomnium has replied

  
ikabod
Member (Idle past 4520 days)
Posts: 365
From: UK
Joined: 03-13-2006


Message 66 of 130 (309300)
05-05-2006 5:50 AM
Reply to: Message 61 by simple
05-05-2006 3:50 AM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm a bit confused here. Are you saying that since we can't demonstrate that things worked the same in the past as they do now, then we can't have any idea about how things were in the past?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, if you can't have any idea how they worked, how can you also have an idea how they worked? Either we do or don't.
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What about the recent past?..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That we know. I am not a silly last thursdayist.
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we can say that these laws worked the same as ten minutes ago as they do now, what allows us to do so? What allows us to assume the same physics ten minutes ago and not 10 million years ago?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We observed the recent past, not millions of years ago, or the future. We have history. We have many things that we know about the recent past up to thousands of years ago. That's it.
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Does this apply to spacial displacement also? Are you also saying that we can't demonstrate that the laws of physics apply equally to the place I am and to the place I am not?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No, I would think that they apply to all our physical universe. But this is according to the bible a temporary universe.
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How does this new-found doubt about the past affect our ability to convict a murderer using forensic evidence? (actually not evidence since we can't trust that physics was the same yesterday.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It doesn't. Good science is still good. Unless the guy is over 4400 years old.
**********************************************************************
sorry but you seem to want your cake and to be able to eat it ...
with scienctific methodology we observer the recent past in the same way as we observer the far past .. we no longer take the writen word of a 19th centry historian about the history of Rome .. we challenge it by examining the physical evidence , by critically looking at accounts from that time and later authors , by trying reconstuctions , by using analytical sciences to test things , and we make high demands of the level proof . In recent year much of the accepted history of the roman world has been changed dur to the application of science ....
Now you are saying this only works up to some date you have picked some 4400 years old .. but can you answer the question why it does not work for 4401 years ago .. or 400000 years or 400000000 years .
You are free to say because "a deity" wills it .. but where is you proof ... can you demonstrate this ...
you say your not a silly last thursdayist , but can you offer more evidence that such a person ....
as we learn more about "recent" human history , due to better science technology ,we are pushing back the dates for early civilisation further , do we then have to assume that only half the evidence for a civilization is "real" if seems to span 4700 to 4200 ???

This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by simple, posted 05-05-2006 3:50 AM simple has replied

Replies to this message:
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iano
Member (Idle past 1968 days)
Posts: 6165
From: Co. Wicklow, Ireland.
Joined: 07-27-2005


Message 67 of 130 (309301)
05-05-2006 5:51 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by simple
05-05-2006 2:54 AM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
Great..and remember. If they hate you..

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by simple, posted 05-05-2006 2:54 AM simple has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 78 by simple, posted 05-06-2006 1:30 AM iano has not replied

  
JonF
Member (Idle past 195 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 68 of 130 (309313)
05-05-2006 7:42 AM
Reply to: Message 61 by simple
05-05-2006 3:50 AM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
If we can say that these laws worked the same as ten minutes ago as they do now, what allows us to do so? What allows us to assume the same physics ten minutes ago and not 10 million years ago?
We observed the recent past, not millions of years ago, or the future. We have history. We have many things that we know about the recent past up to thousands of years ago. That's it.
There is no difference between our observations of the recent past and the deep past. All observations are indirect measures of the effects of past events.
Yuo should also hand-wave away Noether's theorem, which establishes that "the laws of physics were the same in the past" is the same as "energy is conserved". You are, therefore, arguing that energy is not conserved … yet we have never detected a case in which energy is nto conserved.
I suspect that your casual dismissal of all evidence as unsubstiated, and your refusal to present evidence for your claims after repoeated requests, will arouose the moderator's wrath.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by simple, posted 05-05-2006 3:50 AM simple has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 72 by DrFrost, posted 05-05-2006 2:01 PM JonF has replied
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JonF
Member (Idle past 195 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 69 of 130 (309314)
05-05-2006 7:44 AM
Reply to: Message 63 by simple
05-05-2006 3:54 AM


Re: universal constants
The claims I am familiar with. Unsubstansiated are they.
Sorry, Yoda, your second sentence contradicts your first sentence. Frantic hand-waving is not suitable "defense" of your claims.
This message has been edited by JonF, 05-05-2006 07:44 AM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 63 by simple, posted 05-05-2006 3:54 AM simple has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 80 by simple, posted 05-06-2006 1:37 AM JonF has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1432 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 70 of 130 (309316)
05-05-2006 7:52 AM
Reply to: Message 59 by simple
05-05-2006 3:33 AM


Re: Great Debate?
"Daily rings" 'inside' "anual rings"? How would you be able to tell a daily, or weekly ring in a different past from a present anual one precisely?
What the heck is a weekly ring?
You obviously have different growth rates during daylight hours than during nightime hours, and this shows up in the corals as daily rings -- this is, after all, your excuse for annual tree rings being days instead of years.
You also have more growth per day during summer days than during winter days, so the areas of summer days are wider than the areas of winter days, and this shows up in the corals (and trees etc) as annual rings.
We observe the pattern of growth in the corals today, observing both the daily and the annual growth patterns. We see the same kind of growth in corals of the past.
This is an invalidation of your concept on two fronts:
(1) It demonstrates that days AND years were involved at the time of the coral rings being made, just as they are today by the same kinds of corals, and your concept has yet to propose a mechanism that "mimics" this daily growth cycle.
(2) It demonstrates that these daily rings also occurred during the winter season, which you claim was night and your concept is void of any mechanism to "mimic" different rates of growth in a cyclic pattern during the dark hours.
Ah, so that is what is throwing you! If we date the tree rings up to 4400 years with the actual rings, we have close to real time. If we go beyond that we do not. But if you are talking about dating the wood with the C 14 process, rather than rings, that is a different thing. Then we get into a carbon dating issue, and the assumptions in that. Since the error curve in dating with C14 goes back around the time of the great change, beyond which accurate dates are not reliable, it fits with a young age model
C14 is made by radioactive process, without radioactive process to make it, it does not exist.
There is no "error" in the dating curve -- it keeps producing dates that agree with the tree rings.
For your concept to work the has to be an error that isn't there -- and that is why you are wrong.
Your concept is invalid, empty, void, it has no meaning.
Between these two pieces of evidence we have:
(1) evidence of daily cycles within annual cycles in the past in the same manner that we have today
(2) evidence of the production of radioactive material in the past in the same manner that we have today
(3) this evidence is consistent with the scientific theories
(4) this evidence is consistent with the tree rings being annual rings with the proper amounts of C14 for each ring
(5) this evidence is inconsistent and contrary to your "concept" and invalidates it.
It's that simple.
Enjoy.

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This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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mark24
Member (Idle past 5222 days)
Posts: 3857
From: UK
Joined: 12-01-2001


Message 71 of 130 (309358)
05-05-2006 11:02 AM
Reply to: Message 61 by simple
05-05-2006 3:50 AM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
relative,
If you think the "rules" in the past were significantly different to today, then it is incumbent on you to provide evidence for it. It is not everyone elses job to satisfy your assertions. Arguments of the form "this might have happened, prove it otherwise or your conclusions are moot" commit the ad hoc logical fallacy.
Physical laws have not been observed to change since we have been looking, it is therefore a perfectly valid assumption that they haven't. In fact, evidence abounds that they have not. Different dating methods correlating, for example. What possible reason could their be that ice core layers show strong evidence of annualisation which show chemical evidence of volcanic activity in certain years that correlate with radiometric dating of lavas? Just one of many possible correlations.
You see your problem? Dating methods correlate in such a way that a change in decay constants (for example) wouldn't alter the fact that annual snowfall layers accrue in Greenland & Antarctica. The two lines of evidence would be completely skewed. Instead we see multiple lines of corroborating independent evidence reliant on independent phenomena for their existence.
Mark

There are 10 kinds of people in this world; those that understand binary, & those that don't

This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by simple, posted 05-05-2006 3:50 AM simple has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 76 by simple, posted 05-06-2006 1:24 AM mark24 has replied

  
DrFrost
Inactive Member


Message 72 of 130 (309400)
05-05-2006 2:01 PM
Reply to: Message 68 by JonF
05-05-2006 7:42 AM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
quote:
Yuo should also hand-wave away Noether's theorem, which establishes that "the laws of physics were the same in the past" is the same as "energy is conserved". You are, therefore, arguing that energy is not conserved . yet we have never detected a case in which energy is nto conserved.
First off, let me say this is not in support of relative's stance. I don't believe there's been in big change in the laws of physics in the last several million years. BUT, there is evidence that some of the values we consider "constant" have changed over time.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?...
{Shortened display form of URL. - Adminnemooseus}
The above link is an interesting article on the subject.
Also, I would try to avoid using "nondetection" as proof. It took a long time for us to detect antimatter... but that didn't prevent it from being real. We have still not detected, to my knowledge, a Higg's boson and yet many physicists believe they must exist. Evolution in general is missing a lot of "intermediate" steps in the fossil record, yet they assert they must exist. You get the idea.
Also, I'll throw in a little quote from Energy - Wikipedia that you might find interesting given your statement about the conservation of energy:
quote:
The fact that energy is not always conserved in quantum mechanics is a property of the the uncertainty principle...
Of course, it goes on to say that within the limits set by the uncertainty principle, conservation of energy holds.
----------------------------------------------------------
As an aside, I'm disappointed no one has responded to the mathematically inconsistencies I noted with a previous post in this thread. Oh well...
This message has been edited by Adminnemooseus, 05-06-2006 01:12 PM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 68 by JonF, posted 05-05-2006 7:42 AM JonF has replied

Replies to this message:
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JonF
Member (Idle past 195 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 73 of 130 (309486)
05-05-2006 6:06 PM
Reply to: Message 72 by DrFrost
05-05-2006 2:01 PM


Re: Another Correlation problem.
I don't believe there's been in big change in the laws of physics in the last several million years. BUT, there is evidence that some of the values we consider "constant" have changed over time.
"Laws of physics" and "values we consider constant" are often not the same thing. FWIW, the jury is still out on those alleged changes in alpha, but the latest WMAP measurements indicate pretty strongly that alpha has not changed.
Also, I would try to avoid using "nondetection" as proof. It took a long time for us to detect antimatter... but that didn't prevent it from being real. We have still not detected, to my knowledge, a Higg's boson and yet many physicists believe they must exist. Evolution in general is missing a lot of "intermediate" steps in the fossil record, yet they assert they must exist. You get the idea.
Science doesn't deal in proof, it deals with the preponderance of evidence. All your examples were predicted based on sound and verified theories. OTOH, sound and verified theories predict mass-energy is conserved (at least on the scale of galactic clusters and smaller; energy may not be conserved on the universe scale, and there's good reason to believe that conservation of energy isn't even meaningful on that scale). And, as you noted, brief violations of COE are known to occur on the quantum scale. But changes in the laws of physics on the scale propounded by relative are not possible without concomitant changes in conservation of energy.

This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1432 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 74 of 130 (309493)
05-05-2006 7:03 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by DrFrost
05-04-2006 8:06 PM


Re: Great Debate?
But this range of days per annum is big: 385 to 410. That's almost a 10% variation.
You have two causes of uncertainty - 1 is dating the coral, 2 is the effect of very cloudy days or storms on the data that would make some daily rings hard to see.
If the 2 seconds per 100,000 years is correct then.... 25 days ...
Assumption of linearity in a non-linear system. This same energy is also affecting the orbit of the moon, accelerating it into higher orbits which take longer ... the receding moon orbit also means that there is less pull, less force to the tides.
Assuming the earth is 6,000,000,000 years old.
Best scientific analysis puts it at 4.55 billion years old.

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we are limited in our ability to understand
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This message is a reply to:
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simple 
Inactive Member


Message 75 of 130 (309561)
05-06-2006 1:16 AM
Reply to: Message 65 by Parasomnium
05-05-2006 5:00 AM


Re: Your Bank Balance Is Zero
quote:
If you can demonstrate that in the past we had the same monetary laws we now have, and that we also will in the future, you might have a point. As it is, your arguments are at present based on conjectures only. Less than magic. The basic premise that your money originally belonged to us, and will again, trumps your claim it is yours. Your sole point is that it must follow today's monetary laws, yet you can provide no reasons at all it must be so bound. Just because everything you learned and think you know is wrapped up in that empty premise doesn't mean anyone has to accept it at your word. We need your money. So keep your beliefs to yourself, and hand over your money. Now!
Money only goes back thousands of years. We are talking beyond that.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 65 by Parasomnium, posted 05-05-2006 5:00 AM Parasomnium has replied

Replies to this message:
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