Pascal's Wager - Any Way to Live a Life

iceage writes:

quote:

---

Laying aside the fallacy of Pascals Wager itself (hey maybe theist are punished in the end as some cosmic plot twist). This brings me to my question: is employing Pascal's Wager in your approach to life an authentic and intellectually honest way to live!?

---

Um, I'm a bit confused: How can one conclude if the Wager is "authentic and intellectually honest" if one does not examine if the Wager is fallacious?You've touched on just one of the many problems with the Wager: The assumption that we understand god's intentions. There are others. For example, let's assume that we do understand god's intentions and belief is what gets you into heaven:Which god are you going to believe in? There are plenty of gods out there and they have mutually contradictory restrictions on how you're supposed to believe. It is logically impossible to be a good believer across all conceptualizations of god. This turns your shot at being a good believer into nothing more than the lottery, which we all know is a fool's game.Too, and connected, isn't it interesting that the god you will typically believe in is the one your community believes in? It isn't like you're treating all the various conceptualizations of god equally. Your sincerity is not in doubt, but the fault is that you were raised in the wrong one. This is especially important when understanding the history of the Wager...Pascal was arguing not just for the belief in god but specifically in the belief in the Catholic god.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Archer Opterix writes:

quote:

---

Can belief be willed?

---

As has been referenced elsewhere, yes. If you put someone in a room with other people, all of whom are insisting that a certain event happened, he'll start to convince himself it actually did, creating "memories" of the event.Now, is this "will"? I'd say yes. Our will to be one of the crowd and not stand out is what does it.And let's not forget, this entire concept is what "the Secret" is all about: You will yourself to believe that things will happen to you...and they do! (yeah...right...and pay me another $35.99 for the next book that shows you how you failed at the plan put forward in the first book.) People actually do this: They will themselves into a state of belief.Are you saying you've never talked yourself into something?

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Archer Opterix responds to me:

quote:

---

I've heard of these studies and it's all very interesting. But I still don't understand how the researchers distinguish personal conviction from singing for one's supper.

---

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking how the researchers determined that the subjects weren't lying about having experienced the non-event? You'd have to read the writeups for the full details. Unless you're suggesting the researchers were fools, do you have any particular reason that they would be unable to make such a determination?For example, interrogation techniques can determine when people are making things up. One example is to have them repeat the story multiple times to ensure that it maintains consistency. When you make the incident up, it is difficult to stick to the same story. Now, I don't know how they made the determination...again, you'd have to read the study.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Jon responds to me:

quote:

---

quote:

---

Which god are you going to believe in?

---

​

The only one there can be.

---

And which one is that? Be specific. Be aware that there are others who are just as sure that your choice is wrong and their evidence is just as strong as yours.

quote:

---

quote:

---

There are plenty of gods out there...

---

​

Nope. Can be only one.

---

The Hindus might have something to say about that, as will the Shinto.

quote:

---

quote:

---

Too, and connected, isn't it interesting that the god you will typically believe in is the one your community believes in?

---

​

Is it?

---

Yes.

quote:

---

quote:

---

It isn't like you're treating all the various conceptualizations of god equally.

---

​

At the same time, it isn't like doing so is impossible.

---

Actually, it is.You cannot possibly know all conceptualizations. Therefore, there is at least one you are at the very least ignoring completely.

quote:

---

quote:

---

You've touched on just one of the many problems with the Wager: The assumption that we understand god's intentions. There are others.

---

​

The primary one being that any real God would not give mind to whether or not a handful of mollusks clinging to a measly rock acknowledged its existence.

---

And thus, you fall for the very fallacy you were responding to: Thinking you understand god's intentions.Who died and made you god?

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Chiroptera writes:

quote:

---

People don't just decide to believe stuff because it's to their benefit.

---

Oh, yes, they do! They do it all the time. You've never talked yourself into or out of something? What on earth do you think the concept of hierarchical social systems are doing? It's one of the myriad ways you eliminate doubt in yourself.

quote:

---

But I don't think very many people ever sat down and said something like, "You know, if I believe that George Bush personally planted explosives in the World Trade Center and detonated, then I'll be respected among my peers, I'll become rich, and chicks will dig me. So I will believe it. I DO believe it!"

---

You're making it simplistic, but that's exactly what people do. "He doesn't mean it when he hits me. He really loves me."

quote:

---

And I fought against becoming an unbeliever. If I was able to choose my beliefs, then I would have remained a conservative, evangelical Christian literalist.

---

Didn't you read your own post? For a while, you did.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

AnswersInGenitals responds to me:

quote:

---

People will assume you mean free will.

---

And I do.It just isn't regarding the question people might assume. That is, they are freely choosing that they do not wish to be the odd ball out; to insist that everybody else is wrong. They choose to reject their own experience to substitute someone else's.You're assuming that "free will" is some sort of slow, deliberate, methodical thought process.

quote:

---

The subjects do not perform an analysis and make a well thought out decision to create a false memory for themselves.

---

Why does that obviate free will? They freely chose not to do so. They could just as easily have said, "Now, wait a minute! Are you all insane?"

quote:

---

They are reacting to a compulsion to fit in

---

Yes, but there is also the reaction not to lie and the reaction of revulsion from those who lie right to your face.And yet, they don't go in that direction. It's a choice. Is that not free will?

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Nemesis Juggernaut writes:

quote:

---

If salvation were as trite and banal as the wager makes it seem, then, yeah, betting on God would be the better option.

---

What makes you think it isn't? Since when did you become the chosen one who knows the mind of the god that truly exists? You didn't really think it was the Christian one, did you?

quote:

---

For the Christian its a win-win situation.

---

Oh, such faith you have that the god that truly exists is the Christian one. How surprised you will be when you find out that you've been a very bad boy.But don't worry, you'll have an afterlifetime supply of Rice-a-Roni®, the San Francisco Treat.Keep digging that hole, NJ.

quote:

---

For the atheist its a win-loss situation.

---

Unless, of course, god rewards those who think for themselves. Isn't that one of those catchphrases in your book? "God helps those who help themselves"? Perhaps that was a hint to put the book down.Keep digging that hole, NJ.

quote:

---

The problem with the argument is that its prefaced upon a false dichotomy.

---

Oh, it's more than just that. You've fallen for the same fallacy that Pascal did:Thinking that it's your god that truly exists.

quote:

---

There is ample justification to believe that not all theistic beliefs will save you.

---

Indeed...so what makes you think that you've managed to find the right ones? Since when did you become the chosen one who knows the mind of the god that truly exists?

quote:

---

Also, if you are a Christian, simply believing that God exists does not constitute salvation.

---

But that's irrelevant. Even if you do everything that a "good Christian" must do, you're still nowhere near being in a good position for by being a "good Christian," it is just as likely that you have made yourself abomination in the eyes of the god that truly exists.You didn't think the god that truly exists was the Christian one, did you?Keep digging that hole, NJ.

quote:

---

In other words, you can't buy your "fire's insurance" just in case this whole God thing really is true. That's not how it works.

---

Says who? You? Why should we believe you? Who died and made you god? How is it that you know god's intentions?

quote:

---

If the Wager really were as simple as Pascal phrased it, then, sure, its a no-brainer. The reality may be vastly different though.

---

But then again, it might not.That you find the idea of a capricious and cruel god to be anathema is irrelevant. You may not believe in such a god.But said god may very much believe in you.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Archer Opterix:

quote:

---

Was brain activity being monitored as subjects were speaking? You don't tell us.

---

That's because the experimental references have already been made in another thread. I'm sorry I didn't go look it up, but I assumed you were just as capable of using PubMed as I am.

quote:

---

Any idea where I might find these writeups?

---

Yeah. PubMed. You do know of PubMed, don't you? And if not, try Google. And if that doesn't work, search here since they've already been referenced here.I'm not going to do your homework for you.

quote:

---

All I have right now, going from your post, is beliefs, memories, and scientists.

---

No, you have more than that. You've been told that the studies were previously referenced here. Did you bother searching here?

quote:

---

I am asking what criteria researchers used in conducting a scientific study. It's a fair question.

---

Indeed, it is.Go look it up. Why are you trying to make me do your homework?

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Phat responds to me:

quote:

---

Actually you won't find this phrase or anything like it in the Bible.

---

True, that was Ben Franklin.What if he was right....

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Jon responds to me:

quote:

---

quote:

---

And which one is that? Be specific.

---

​

The only One. There cannot be more than One.

---

Says who? You? Why should we believe you? It would seem the Celestial Bureaucracy would beg to differ with you.

quote:

---

quote:

---

Be aware that there are others who are just as sure that your choice is wrong

---

​

Let them be.

---

But you're the one insisting. Therefore, you just justify your claims.

quote:

---

quote:

---

and their evidence is just as strong as yours.

---

​

Doubtf'lly so.

---

Says who? You? Why should we believe you? The vast majority of the world thinks you're wrong. Why should we choose your minority opinion?

quote:

---

quote:

---

Thinking you understand god's intentions.

---

​

I needn't understand God's intentions, merely Its nature

---

But that's precisely the fallacy: What on earth makes you think you understand god's nature?Who died and made you god?

quote:

---

which is, in the general, discernable via logic.

---

Why? When was it shown that god was rational, sane, and logical?You're assuming you understand god.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

iceage writes:

quote:

---

I am with Archer on this, one cannot decide or will oneself to genuinely believe.

---

And yet, all of psychology says the exact opposite. It is very easy to get people to genuinely believe.

quote:

---

The mind believes in something because of:

​

1) A preponderance of evidence
2) A desire to quell some strong personal anguish

​

Beliefs based on the latter often lead to intellectual dishonesty and overshadow the former.

---

Why? Have you completely forgotten about the "false memory syndrome"? You can convince people that they were horrendously raped and participated on terrifying murders of people and yet, when you show them that it could never, ever have happened, they adamantly point out that you're wrong.What do you think the McMartin case was predicated upon?

quote:

---

I believe that a life lived authentically, courageously and honestly and with reverence to life is in itself a form worship to the creator, if indeed there is one.

---

But what if god doesn't? That's one of the many fallacies of the wager: Assuming you understand god.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Nemesis Juggernaut responds to me:

quote:

---

quote:

---

Since when did you become the chosen one who knows the mind of the god that truly exists?

---

​

The day we met.

---

I don't recall you being there.

quote:

---

quote:

---

You didn't really think it was the Christian one, did you?

---

​

YHWH, HaShem, Adonai, El Shaddai, Yeshua... If that's the Christian God, then yes.

---

But who said that was the god that really existed? You? Why should we believe you?

quote:

---

But if it is a wager, I'll take that bet and raise you your soul.

---

BZZZZT!I'm so sorry, Nemesis Juggernaut. Johnny, tell him what parting gifts he has!Well, Bob, Nemesis Juggernaut has won himself a lifetime of anguish in someone else's hell! Yes, that's right. After spending all of his life fighting against Satan and worshipping the Christian god, Nemesis Juggernaut gets a reward of going straight to Hades for his hubris. He'll be sentenced to solve a series of puzzles for which the instructions can be read in many ways. Every attempt to glean more information will be met with "Since it would just be a waste of my time to tell you, I won't." Of course, every proposed solution will conflict with something in the contradictory instructions. This being for his continued insistence that those around him are unworthy of explanations.But, he won't get hungry because he'll have an afterlife-time supply of Rice-a-Roni®, the San Francisco Treat.You didn't really think that the god that truly exists is the Christian one, did you?

quote:

---

Everyone that believes something should have some kind of reason for believing.

---

Indeed. "Trying to win a bet" is a reason.Why do you think you understand god's intentions such that that reason isn't good enough?

quote:

---

Obviously, that is not how salvation works

---

Who says? You? Why should we believe you? We're talking about the god that truly exists, not your fantasy one.

quote:

---

Its not something you could know empirically 100%.

---

Very good, NJ. You're getting close.So since at least two-thirds of the planet feel that you're barking up the wrong tree and have just as much evidence to support their claim as yours, why should you think that you're anywhere close to being right?

quote:

---

The whole point of Christendom is that you can't be a good boy on your own without coming to the realization that you require mercy.

---

But the whole point of the fallacy of the wager is that the above is irrelevant: What made you think Christianity was the way to go? We're talking about the god that truly exists, not this fantasy you've created.

quote:

---

God... I've got Him on the line...

---

I'm sorry...but your call cannot be connected.We're talking about the god that truly exists, not your fantasy one.

quote:

---

He says He wants you to stop being an angry, antagonsitic atheist

---

(*chuckle*)I love being psychoanalyzed over the internet. I always learn such fascinating things?When was it determined that I was an atheist? I know I haven't said anything on the subject and I should think that I would be the final authority on what I do or do not believe with regard to god.Do not confuse my lack of belief in your god with a lack of belief in any god. This is exactly the same fallacy as the wager: Confusing your god with the real god.

quote:

---

Since He bestowed on you a freewill, you have to ask for Him.

---

You mean god doesn't have free will? God can't bestow grace on someone just because he likes him, even though it was never asked for? Simply because he thought it would be a nice thing to do?I thought we were talking about the god that truly exists and not your fantasy one.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

mike the wiz writes:

quote:

---

That means that we don't think YOU can out-think the creator.

---

And once again, you fall for the fallacy of the wager: Thinking you understand god's motivations, intentions, and characteristics.Besides, your own book contradicts you: God gets out-thought all the time. How do you think Lot managed to survive the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah? Because Abraham out-thought him. How do you think the Hebrews managed to survive the 40 years in the desert? Because Moses out-thought god and continually calmed him down from his temper tantrums.Jacob out-thinks god all the time. He steals Esau's birthright and god can do nothing to restore it.So since there is no reason to think you've managed to get god's intentions right and your own holy book contradicts you regarding god's characteristics, what makes you think you really understand god's motivations?

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

mike the wiz responds to me:

quote:

---

We trust God because he is God.

---

BZZZT!Pascal's Wager. I'm so sorry, mike.You didn't think the god that truly exists was the one your fantasies dreamed up, did you?

quote:

---

I "trust" God because I don't understand everything like freethinkers think they do.

---

Strawman. Show me a single freethinker who thinks he understands everything.Names, dates, places.Otherwise, you just pulled that claim out of your ass.

quote:

---

It has nothing to do with pascal's wager.

---

It has everything to do with the Wager: You think you picked the right god. You think you understand god. Given the infinite number of conceptualizations of god that are out there, the chances of you having stumbled upon the right one are not very good.

quote:

---

It's an assumption, and a logical one, that if God exists, he knows better than us and we can trust in him.

---

Huh? Where's the logic in that? That's wishful thinking. Why does god have to know better than you?Be specific.Hint: Being capable of doing Spielbergian special effects is not an indication of being "better than us." It just means he's good with the CGI.

quote:

---

Nothing to do with Pascal. First understand why things are fallacious before making mistakes like that.

---

Bingo, mike: Pascal made the mistake. You are continuing the fallacy.Physican, heal thyself!

quote:

---

Trusting in God isn't a fallacy.

---

What makes you think you've chosen the right one? The problem isn't the trust. The problem isn't god. The problem is that you think your trust is pointed toward the god that truly exists when in all likelihood, you're not even close.

quote:

---

An argument/position of asserting something to be true is a fallacy either formally or informally if found to be unsound.

---

And yet, here you are claiming to trust in the god that truly exists when you don't have anything other than assertion to back it up.

quote:

---

Stop jumping to conclusion from lack of information.

---

Hint: That bouncing sensation you're feeling is from your own bipedal exertion.

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

rstrats writes:

quote:

---

Well, I have never been able to consciously CHOOSE any of the beliefs that I have

---

You've never talked yourself into or out of something?

---

Rrhain

---

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.