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Author Topic:   Probability of the existence of God
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 39 of 219 (464558)
04-27-2008 4:59 AM
Reply to: Message 33 by Wumpini
04-27-2008 3:13 AM


Re: Ignoring is Ignorance
Based upon the evidence, I believe there is only one possibility. God exists! With only one possibility, the probability is 100%
Yes we know you believe that to be the case.
The point is that what you believe has no real bearing on the probability of God existing.
There are many others equally convinced of their god(s) as you are of yours.
They too have concluded that their god(s) exist with 100% certainty. You canot all be right now can you?
Your whole argument boils down to "I think things look like they were designed so my God must exist with 100% certainty"
This neither takes into account the fact that there are alternative nonsupernatural explanations (for which there is much evidence) or that a host of other supernatural explanations could also be invoked to explain the appearanc of design in nature.
You can only get you 100% figure by willfully ignoring all of these other possible explanations.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by Wumpini, posted 04-27-2008 3:13 AM Wumpini has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 41 by Wumpini, posted 04-27-2008 10:09 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 43 of 219 (464577)
04-27-2008 11:44 AM
Reply to: Message 41 by Wumpini
04-27-2008 10:09 AM


Re: You are correct and incorrect!
That is how I come to the 100% figure.
How can you have 100% certainty in anything based on evidence?
You cannot have 100% certainty that anything exists. You could be dreaming everything you think is real. There is no amount of evidence that can actually disprove this possibility.
100% certainty requires faith. Not evidence.
The physical evidence suggests natural selection is responsible for the appearance of design in living things. What evidence do you have that opposes this?
I have a question.
What is the probaility of you being delusional about God?
Does this possibility exist at all?
How can we determine this probability?
If it is possible that you are delusional what necessary effect does this have on your 100% certainty figure?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 41 by Wumpini, posted 04-27-2008 10:09 AM Wumpini has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 46 by Wumpini, posted 04-27-2008 1:43 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 51 of 219 (464600)
04-27-2008 2:39 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by Wumpini
04-27-2008 1:43 PM


Re: That does not make sense!
Let us say you have a two sided coin. You are trying to calculate the probability that the coin will land on either one side or the other. For discussion purposes let us imagine that both sides are the same, heads. Are you saying that you must consider the possibility that you are delusional and you or the coin do not exist? I must have been asleep that day in statistics class!
I bet they did not consider the possibility of the coin landing on it's edge either? Extremely unlikely but statistically possible. Sometimes the probabilities of some things are so small they are effectively irrelevent to all practical intents and purposes. However they do mean that 100% certainty in anything is impossible if based on evidence?
We can never kow we have all the evidence. We can never have 100% certainty based on possibly incomplete evidence.
So in a coin tossing situation there are two 'realistic' possibilities and we can work out the probability accordingly. Yes?
You cannot determine the probability of something unless you know the number of the possible outcomes.
In the case of God's existence what are the possibilities?
There could be one god. There could be two gods. Three gods. Four, five.....etc. there could be an infinite amount of gods. Or there could be none. Or any number in between.
On what evidence exactly do you conclude one particular god with 100% certainty?
How do you know you have all of the evidence?
No evidence based conclusion can have 100% certainty without omniscience (in which case we would not need evidence anyway)
PS - If you really want to know how the reproductive system evolved I suggest that you look it up. A simple google search should suffice.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by Wumpini, posted 04-27-2008 1:43 PM Wumpini has replied

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 Message 56 by Wumpini, posted 04-27-2008 4:03 PM Straggler has not replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 118 of 219 (465123)
05-03-2008 9:52 AM
Reply to: Message 114 by iano
05-02-2008 7:30 AM


Reality Bites
I would have thought that a thought is an obvious example of non-empirical evidence. That I find my non-empirical thoughts frequently turning to my wife-to-be evidences the empirical and non-empirical impact she has come to have on my life.
The above is an example of the application of a simple dictionary definition of evidence: a thing or things helpful in forming a conclusion or judgment. There is no demand that the thing or things be empirical.
If non-empirical entities (such as thoughts) can be construed as evidence surely that means that we can all claim evidence for the existence of pretty much anything our imagination is capable of conjuring up?
Winged horses, little green men that live in the wall, time travel, alternate histories ec. etc.
I can think of all of these things? Is that evidence for their existence?
How can we possibly divide that which is real with that which is the product of delusion and fantasy if we follow your view of "evidence"?
Just because you think about your wife doesn't mean she actually exists. She could be an imaginary wife for all I know.
However I presume that other people have actually met her and that there is in fact empirical evidence for her existence including family, friends, dwellings possessions, physical life history etc. etc.?
If nobody else had ever seen your wife, if not a single other person had ever witnessed any evidence for the existence of the person you call your wife, if we could find no physical evidence for the existence of this person at all - could we reliably say that she actually exists based on your thoughts and assertions alone? Or might we think your are a poor deluded individual desperately in need of companionship and therapy?
Are thoughts really evidence for anything? If I beleieve something to be true are you really claiming that this is evidence for it being true?
"Evidence" that can be considered reliable enough to actually justify that term "evidence" has to be material as only material evidence can be independently assessed and mutually corroborated in any way at all.
Anything else is unreliable (but possibly accurate) at best, and dangerously delusional at worst with no way to tell the two apart.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 114 by iano, posted 05-02-2008 7:30 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 119 by iano, posted 05-04-2008 8:29 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 121 of 219 (465235)
05-04-2008 9:09 AM
Reply to: Message 119 by iano
05-04-2008 8:29 AM


Re: Reality Bites
You seem to be overlooking the fact that if I am to suppose my wife-to-be not to exist I must also suppose everyone else not to exist
Not necessarily.
There are countless examples of people conjuring up imaginary individuals whilst continuing to function in what the rest of us assume to be an objective reality.
We don't therefore have to assume that we are all the product of the imagination of one such deluded individual just because such individuals exist.
The error you repeatedly make is that you selectively justify your flawed position on the all or nothing scenario.
It is possible everything is just the product of your imagination. It is also possible that it is not.
I suspect that you, as much as I, assume the latter but whatever the case the logical conequence of the latter is that independently corroborated evidence is verifiable.
In the event of the latter scenario being true your belief in an imaginary wife that nobody else has ever seen or heard and for which there is no material physical evidence whatsoever would suggest that you have invented an imaginary wife. Not that we are all the product of your imagination.
Seriously - If nobody else could see or hear your wife wouldn't it at least cast the seed of doubt in your mind as to whether or not you were seeing and hearing things that were not actually there?
If belief in God is evidence for God's existence why is belief in Pixies not evidence for the existence of pixies? Or do you think there is evidence for pixies as well?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 119 by iano, posted 05-04-2008 8:29 AM iano has replied

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 Message 122 by iano, posted 05-06-2008 10:01 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 123 of 219 (465412)
05-06-2008 3:50 PM
Reply to: Message 122 by iano
05-06-2008 10:01 AM


Re: Reality Bites
Your argument has so many flaws it is difficult to know where to start.
Rather than try and tackle them all at once lets just first try and clear up the very practical problem of the highly selective application of your arguemnt you seem to be applying here.
Which of course means that evidence need not be empirical in order to be classed as evidence.
Is a genuine belief in the existence of pixies (i.e. a 'knowldge' that pixies definitely do exist) a form of non-empirical "evidence" for the existence of pixies?
If not why not?
How exactly is the non-empirical "evidence" for pixies, ghosts, the tooth fairy, father Christmas, Lakshmi, Apollo or the Easter bunny different to the non-empirical "evidence" for your wife or for God?
Anyway, gotta go. I am having dinner with Zeus, Thor, Frodo and Gandalf. Should be fun.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 122 by iano, posted 05-06-2008 10:01 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 125 by iano, posted 05-06-2008 6:47 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 126 of 219 (465494)
05-07-2008 1:18 PM
Reply to: Message 125 by iano
05-06-2008 6:47 PM


Re: Reality Bites
Your repeated and ongoing evasion has been noted.
Which is all off the point anyway. The point didn't concern the existance of my wife-to-be. It concerned the evidence I have for her having had a significant impact on my life. And the fact that some of that evidence is non-empirical.
The topic of this thread is how we determine the probability of the existence of a given entity. Specifically God in this case but presumably the standards of evidence on which we base any such conclusion can be applied to any other entity we choose to consider.
... or zeus, or thor or apollo.
Yes all of those. Or your wife. Or you. Or me. Or anyone else we care to consider the actual existence of.
Or are you claiming that the standards of evidence as applied to the existence of your God should be different to everything else?
If interested by all means refer to the example I gave.
The example you gave concerns the impact that your wife has had on your life. I don't dispute the fact that she has had an impact on your life. I do dispute that this can feasibly be construed as any sort of evidence for her actual existence.
It concerned the evidence I have for her having had a significant impact on my life. And the fact that some of that evidence is non-empirical.
Non-empirical evidence of what exactly?
If you are not claiming this as evidence for her actual existence then I do not see what possible relevance the impact of your wife on your life has to the topic at hand?
Perhaps you can explain?
Whether real or imaginary something can have a profound impact on one's life. An imaginary wife could potentially have as much, or even more, impact on your life as a physically real wife.
As Rahvin points out, fictional characters and ancient gods have had profound impacts on people's lives. This does not make them any more or any less fictional.
How about starting with the argument itself rather than continue in this diversion regarding my wife-to-be's existance
You have been peddling your 'non-empirical evidence' line of argument in relation to God in one form or another in this thread and numerous others for as long as I have been a member of EvC. However I have never seen you justify why the same argument cannot be applied to anything else anyone claims they believe/"know" to exist.
So I ask yet again - Is an absolute belief in the existence of pixies* and associated impact on ones life evidence for the existence of pixies?
If not why not?
*Feel free to replace "pixies" with whatever imaginary entity floats your boat (Tooth Fairy, Zeus, Thor, Flying Spaghetti Monster, Imaginary Friend, Easter Bunny etc. etc. etc.)
Please stop being evasive and just answer the question.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 125 by iano, posted 05-06-2008 6:47 PM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 128 by iano, posted 05-09-2008 2:37 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 127 of 219 (465706)
05-09-2008 11:32 AM
Reply to: Message 125 by iano
05-06-2008 6:47 PM


Re: Reality Bites
Can we conclude from your silence that you are unable to answer the question asked in Message 126 and that you therefore agree that the "non-empirical evidence" for the existence of pixies is equally as (in)valid as the "non-empirical evidence" for the existence of God?
Straggler's question -
So I ask yet again - Is an absolute belief in the existence of pixies* and associated impact on ones life evidence for the existence of pixies?
If not why not?
*Feel free to replace "pixies" with whatever imaginary entity floats your boat (Tooth Fairy, Zeus, Thor, Flying Spaghetti Monster, Imaginary Friend, Easter Bunny etc. etc. etc.)
Could it be that "non-empirical evidence" for anything is so pointlessly unreliable that the term "evidence" is completely unwarrented in such a context?
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

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Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 134 of 219 (465763)
05-10-2008 5:54 AM
Reply to: Message 128 by iano
05-09-2008 2:37 PM


Re: Reality Bites
Straggler wites
So I ask yet again - Is an absolute belief in the existence of pixies and associated impact on ones life evidence for the existence of pixies?
Iano writes
"Absolute belief" requires clarification. Is the belief arrived at via evidence (empirical or non-empirical) or is that a blind (unevidenced) belief. Yes in the first case (obviously) and No in the second (obviously).
Well I think we can safely assume that the evidence for pixies is non-empirical.
As the resident expert on non-empirical "evidence" perhaps you can tell us the sort of thing that would constitute the non-empirical "evidence" on which we could viably conclude the existence of pixies (or anything else)?
(AbE) The viability of non-empirical "evidence" is fairly key to your entire position (in this thread and many others) so it seems only fair to examine exactly what form(s) this evidence can take and to determine whether or not you are willing to apply these same standards of evidence to entities other than your personal version of God.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 128 by iano, posted 05-09-2008 2:37 PM iano has not replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 135 of 219 (465906)
05-11-2008 2:40 PM
Reply to: Message 128 by iano
05-09-2008 2:37 PM


Re: Reality Bites
Iano
Given that the concept of non-empirical "evidence" is so inherently fundamental to almost every argument I have ever seen you put forwards at EvC and given that it is so key to what would seem to be your whole world view - I am surprised that you are so reticent and un-forthcoming when it comes to exploring this in detail?
If your argument is as valid and "obvious" as you repeatedly suggest you should have no need for caveats, conditions, delays or debating tactics.
A simple example of what constitutes non-empirical evidence is all that is being requested? Is that such a difficult question?
Straggler asks -
As the resident expert on non-empirical "evidence" perhaps you can tell us the sort of thing that would constitute the non-empirical "evidence" on which we could viably conclude the existence of pixies (or anything else)?
It is my conclusion that non-empirical "evidence" can be used to demonstrate the existence of any entity that anyone can conceivably imagine. Therefore such "evidence" is so pointlessly unreliable as to render the term "evidence" as completely unwarranted in this context.
Thus your whole position falls apart at the seams and your whole argument is shown to be little more than an ill conceived debating tactic.
So please do tell us exactly what form this non-empirical "evidence" of yours takes and then let us see if we can equally apply this form of "evidence" to demonstrate the existence of the evidently ridiculous such that we can determine the validity (or otherwise) of such "evidence".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 128 by iano, posted 05-09-2008 2:37 PM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 136 by iano, posted 05-12-2008 9:45 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 138 of 219 (466001)
05-12-2008 11:01 AM
Reply to: Message 136 by iano
05-12-2008 9:45 AM


Re: Reality Bites
The reason for my reticence is the same as it has always been and has been often stated as being, to whit; I have no interest and can see no purpose in getting into the detail.
Well given that the detail exposes your whole position as complete bullshit this is hardly surprising.
My purpose is to deal with a particular accusation ("belief in God is a result of evidential-less faith"). The goal is not to 'win' a debate against that notion - merely to stalemate it. To kick it into touch. To render it not-at-all-necessarily-the-case.
In that case you have failed dismally.
If the same form(s) of "evidence" that are used by you to justify your evidence-less faith in God can also be used to justify evidence-less faith in pixies, unicorns, Thor or the Tooth Fairy then I think we can agree that they are a pretty piss poor standard on which to make any conclusions at all.
So poor that the intentionally misleading mis-use of the term "evidence" in this context is quite obviously nothing more than an ill conceived debating tactic used by you in an attempt to elevate your faith based beliefs to the same status as empirically tested knowledge.
The hilarious thing is that you don't even seem to dispute the fact that non-empirical "evidence" can equally be applied to demonstrate the existence of the Easter Bunny as it can your God. Yet you continue to insist that non-empirical "evidence" is somehow a concept which we should take seriously when you selectively apply it to your belief in God.
Despite disagreeing with you I had at least always thought that you genuinely believed your own argument. Now I am not convinced even of this. I don’t see how even you are capable of giving credence to this self evident nonsense.
... I've given you an excellent one which you prefer to duck away from. You don't seem to want to address it head on - supposing that pixies and Zeus and Thor will do your work for you.
Yet more evasion on your part (and for the record Zeus, Thor et al do seem to have helped to expose your argument for what it is)
I have yet to witness you explicitly describe any form(s) of non-empirical evidence despite this line of argument being the entire foundation of your position in nearly every thread you take part in.
So - How about rising to that challenge and stating a specific example of what you would consider to be non-empirical evidence for the existence of a given entity?
Then we can apply this form of evidence to various other entities and see what results we get.
Accepting that non-empirical evidence is a common as the day is long might cause you to pause should ever you find yourself on the point of supposing someones belief in God to be of the blind, Dawkinsian type.
Realising that the acceptance of non-empirical "evidence" necessarily requires us all to accept that there is “evidence” for the existence of the tooth fairy should cause you to question exactly what it is you claim to accept as evidence and to consider whether or not this is consistent with that which you actually accept as evidence in practical terms outside and away from the narrow confines of your religious beliefs.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 136 by iano, posted 05-12-2008 9:45 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 139 by iano, posted 05-13-2008 7:36 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 140 of 219 (466184)
05-13-2008 12:13 PM
Reply to: Message 139 by iano
05-13-2008 7:36 AM


Re: Reality Bites
I'm not asking you accept non-empirical evidence for God. I'm not even asking you to accept non-empirical evidence for the conclusion I draw regarding my wife-to-be.
I'm asking you to accept that the principle that non-empirical evidence exists. Having done so you might remain silent in the face of me saying I have evidence that God exists. You certainly shouldn't suppose that this necessitates your believing God exists, or that tooth fairies exist
I utterly deny that non-empirical evidence exists. In principle or otherwise.
Iano nobody, not even you, relies on non-empirical "evidence" for knowledge of anything. Ever. There is no such thing as non-empirical evidence. No matter how strongly you assert, or even genuinely believe, the opposite to be true.
I will be delighted to explain my reasoning and demonstrate this to you (and anybody else folliwng this) in great depth and detail when I have some more time later this week. You obviously hold this concept dearly so I want to be very very clear and very very thorough in my refutation. Hopefully we can finally lay this ridiculous misapprehension of yours to rest.
In the meantime, so as to avoid talking at cross purposes and the potential accusation that my refutation is any sort of strawman, could you please just give us an example of the form(s) of non-empirical evidence that you believe to be the basis of your (and apparently everybody elses) knowledge?
A simple example of a specific form of non-empirical evidence and the knowledge that is concluded as a result of this "evidence" is all that is being requested.
If the use of non-empirical evidence in our everyday lives is so obvious and prevalent why is this so difficult for you to do?
More later.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

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 Message 139 by iano, posted 05-13-2008 7:36 AM iano has not replied

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 Message 141 by ICANT, posted 05-13-2008 1:16 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 142 of 219 (466198)
05-13-2008 2:12 PM
Reply to: Message 141 by ICANT
05-13-2008 1:16 PM


Go Away
ICANT why don't you take your own ill understood brand of nonsense back to the cosmology forums where it (sort of) belongs.

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 Message 141 by ICANT, posted 05-13-2008 1:16 PM ICANT has not replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 143 of 219 (466199)
05-13-2008 2:15 PM
Reply to: Message 139 by iano
05-13-2008 7:36 AM


Non-Empirical Nonsense
Imagine the scenario -
Policeman: I am sorry sir but we have had to close the case relating to the breaking, entering and burglary of your home due to insufficient evidence.
Iano: What? But the suspect is a well known local villain with a ream of previous convictions who was discovered in the house with a bag of tools that have been forensically matched to those used to enter the house. Not only that his fingerprints are everywhere and he was carrying a full bag of my most treasured and valuable belongings at the point of being apprehended.
Policeman: I appreciate all of that sir. I really do. The problem is that the equally valid non-empirical evidence we have obtained suggests that the accused is in fact not the guilty culprit. In fact the non-empirical evidence places the accused firmly away from the scene of the crime and does in fact strongly suggest that an immaterial entity may well have been responsible for the actions taken against you and your property.
Iano: Ah I see. Well if the non-empirical evidence suggests that then of course we must take that into account. Fair enough. Thank-you for your time officer. Goodbye.
Back later with the serious analysis as promised.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

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 Message 139 by iano, posted 05-13-2008 7:36 AM iano has not replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 145 of 219 (466367)
05-14-2008 7:37 PM
Reply to: Message 139 by iano
05-13-2008 7:36 AM


Iano's Folly - The Case Against Non-Empirical "Evidence"
THE STORY SO FAR....
Before continuing it is worth re-iterating the main conclusion of the discussion so far. Namely that a form of evidence that can be used to support claims for everything and anything is effectively evidence for nothing at all. Evidence is the means by which we divide truth from untruth and accuracy from errancy. If the false is as equally well supported by a given form of evidence as is the truth then the term evidence is obviously unwarranted and blatantly being misused. Non-empirical evidence fits this bill in every sense imaginable. Non-empirical evidence is as pointlessly unreliable with regard to drawing conclusions as it is conceivably possible to be.
No refutation has even been attempted by Iano regarding this very key point.
Instead Iano simply implies that we somehow magically differentiate between all of the possible and equally well supported potential claims of non-empirical evidence (the existence of you, me, Iano, Thor, Apollo, Santa, The Tooth Fairy, The Easter Bunny and God are a few choice examples). No method of distinguishing between reliable non-empirical “evidence” (what a bizarre concept) and unreliable non-empirical evidence is suggested. According to Iano we simply know which non-empirical "evidence" to believe and which to not.
Despite these very obvious flaws in his theory Iano still insists that non-empirical evidence should be acknowledged and accepted as a valid form of evidence with regard to drawing conclusions about the world. In fact he goes even further than this and suggests that we all rely on non-empirical evidence in our day to day lives.
Tellingly, and despite many requests to do so, he is completely unable to provide us with a specific example of non-empirical evidence or a definite example of a conclusion borne of such evidence. Draw your own conclusions.
IANO'S CURRENT POSITION
Iano disregards all of the above and continues to assert that he knows his wife exists by means of non-empirical "evidence". He also asserts that such evidence can equally and validly be applied to the existence of God.
Is there any value in this claim at all?
If non-empirical evidence does not exist does the 'empirical only' alternative require us to go around seeking independently verified corroborating evidence for the existence of our loved ones before we can legitimately accept that they exist? These are the questions I will attempt to address.
AIM
In this post I will attempt to debunk what remains of Iano's disintegrating argument in favour of non-empirical evidence and refute his unsupported assertion that the everyday assumptions that we all make all of the time are somehow poignant examples of our reliance on such evidence.
There is a huge difference between the standards of ”evidence’ that we apply to the mundane, ordinary and everyday as compared to the exacting standards of evidence required of scientific enquiry.
The wider aim of this post is to explore these differences and expose Iano’s ongoing tactic of selectively conflating and confusing the two to evade any meaningful standards of evidence being applied to his flawed theistic position.
STANDARDS OF EVIDENCE
Do we apply the same standards of evidence to every situation and every conclusion we make? No, quite obviously we do not. The questions that we therefore need to consider instead are -
1) What determines the standards of evidence that we apply in different contexts?
2) Are these differing standards of evidence contextually justified?
3) Do these differing context based standards of evidence result in reliable and valid conclusions?
4) Does any form of non-empirical “evidence” (whatever this may be) play any part at all in our conclusions?
In order to explore the different standards of evidence applied to different situations let us consider a (hopefully) un-contentious (and rather silly) example.
Example 1 Mundane Moggy
Today my little boy told me he had seen a cat in the street outside our house earlier this morning. I “know” that a cat was outside my house today because he told me so. Yes he could be lying. Yes he could be delusional. These are possibilities. But as far as I am concerned there was indeed a cat outside my house this morning and to all intents and purposes this is a fact. The standards of evidence which I demand for this ”fact’ are very low. Why? Because this claim is so mundane, un-extraordinary and everyday that frankly the alternative explanations are even less likely than the claim itself. I don’t consciously think through the probabilities. I just unquestioningly accept the claim as a fact.
I am effectively assuming the truth of this particular and specific instance based on a long history of empirical evidence that tells me that cats are a common feature of my street and that my son is not a pathological liar.
This is an example of an everyday assumption borne out of, and supported by, a long history of empirical evidence that make questioning or requiring further evidence of such a ”truth’ the exception rather than the rule.
Example 2 Moggy Mayhem
Today my little boy told me that he had seen “thousands” of cats in the street outside our house earlier this morning. “Really? Did you count them?” I asked. “Yes daddy I did” he said, “There were fifteen thousand four hundred and twenty two cats”.
“Hmmm. Are the cats still there?”
“No daddy they've all gone home”
“Did they make a mess outside?” I ask.
“No daddy. Cats are very clean. You know that!”
“Did anyone else see the cats?”
“No daddy. Just me. Why? Don’t you believe me?”
“Of course I do. But next time you see that many cats I would like to take a photo of them because it is kind of unusual to see that many cats. Will you let me know straight away next time?”
“OK daddy. I will. Can I have biscuit?............” etc.
Generally speaking thousands of rampant moggies do not spontaneously converge on a single street in Britain. Without any corroborating empirical evidence of such an unlikely event I am going to dismiss this claim as a result of the healthy imagination of a small child. Would you do differently?
Example 3 Millionaire Moggy
Today my little boy told me he had seen a cat in the street outside our house earlier this morning. Co-incidentally they have just announced on the radio that a one million pound prize will be given to the first person today to spot a cat in the local area.
I rush out of the house with my camera demanding of my son that he tell me exactly where and when he saw the cat in question and wondering whether or not the CCTV tapes for the neighbourhood might be available upon request. “Did you really see the cat? Are you sure? Was anyone else there?” I ask as we run down the stairs in hot pursuit of objective evidence in favour of the aforementioned claimed cat sighting.
The above examples are intended to show that the issue here is not one of empirical or non-empirical evidence per se. Rather it is an issue of context and reliability.
The more unbelievable the claim the higher the standards of evidence we require to support the claim.
The greater the impact of a 'fact' the greater the evidence we require to support that conclusion.
Putting the issue of scientific evidence aside for one moment I think that there are two factors that define the standards of evidence that we require in everyday life.
1) The believability of a claim. How likely or improbable is that which is being claimed?
2) The significance of a claim. How important is the truth of a claim? What impact will the truth (or otherwise) of the claim being made have?
Taking these into account it should be obvious to all that different standards of evidence are indeed contextually justified. It also needs to be appreciated that when assessing the 'believability' of a very un-extraordinary and unimportant claim we do this against the background of a great wealth of empirical experience which can make our judgements and assumptions regarding the specific case in hand highly reliable
SCIENCE - THE SPECIAL CASE
What are the standards of evidence imposed by scientific methods of investigation and how do these compare with those of day to day life?
Science is the search for objective truth. As such generalised assumptions borne of experience, no matter how seemingly reliable, are considered no substitute for hard empirical, case specific, testable evidence.
Science does not assume conclusions. Science tests conclusions. In this respect the standards of evidence imposed by the methods of science dwarf anything that we might use in our daily lives or the examples above.
In terms of believability and importance, science effectively treats the conclusions borne of every claim with scepticism and significance.
It is not realistic or practical for us to apply these standards of evidence to everyday life but it is these standards of evidence that differentiate science from other, less reliable, forms of investigation.
THE MUNDANITY OF EXISTENCE
An ongoing theme of this debate has been Iano’s insistence that he knows that his wife exists by means of non-empirical, rather than empirical, evidence.
Is there any truth in this claim at all?
Do we really continually require evidence (whether empirical or non-empirical) of that which we are, to all practical intents and purposes, certain of?
At what point in day to day life does assumption rather than ”evidence’ become the norm?
Is the basis of any such assumption empirical at root?
Can we realistically be expected, or required, to apply the same standards of evidence to the mundane, ordinary or unimportant as we do the outrageously unbelievable or deeply significant?
Far be it from me to declare existence as mundane and ordinary . .. but in this context that is exactly what it is.
From the moment we are born we are bombarded with empirical evidence that there is a common reality inhabited by other people who are also part of this common reality. The things we see are seen and verified by other people. The things we hear are heard and verified by other people. The things we can touch can be touched by other people. The other people that we interact with undergo interactions independent of us with other people. The existence of other independent beings is so much part of our mundane, ordinary, everyday experience that we do not question each specific case. We do not require evidence, either empirical or non-empirical, beyond our own subjective perception that each individual we chance across actually exists. The genuine existence of each individual is a perfectly valid case specific assumption borne of, and validated by, a lifetime of empirical experience.
Given a reason to doubt this assumption we might well consider such “evidence” less flippantly (Anyone seen the film about John Nash - ”A Beautiful Mind’?). Fortunately most of us will never experience seeing and hearing things and people that nobody else can see and hear.
If we did experience such things regularly no amount of non-empirical “evidence” would change the fact that we were considered by everybody else to be completely mad and in desperate need of psychiatric help.
IANO'S FOLLY
Iano would have us apply the same standard of “evidence” that we superficially apply to the mundane examples of everyday life to the existence of God.
He would have us apply the knowledge we gain through continual and historical experience of the empirically ordinary to the non-empirical and fantastic.
He feigns indignation and protests at the supposed unfairness and philosophical bias on our part when we refuse this. He objects when we impose higher standards of evidence for his very obviously not trivial or mundane claims of the existence of an omniscient omnipotent creator. Despite the fact that this is one of the most important, arguably improbable, and controversial claims it is possible for anyone to make.
Most outrageously of all he then goes on to claim that the assumptions he insists we make about his God should be considered as equally valid and equally as reliable as the conclusions of science. Conclusions which are based on the most exacting standards of evidence it is practically feasible to impose.
Iano would ask us to treat his claims for the existence of God as we would treat a child’s claims of seeing a cat in the street.
He would then insist that we equate this, in terms of validity, with the empirically tested conclusions of science.
Any fool can see that this is a wholly unjustified attempt at legitimising an indefensible faith based position.
CONCLUSION
Non-empirical "evidence" is so pointlessly unreliable as to be useless. By conflating and confusing the everyday and perfectly valid empirically borne assumptions that we all make in our everyday lives with “evidence” Iano has attempted to claim the existence of non-empirical “evidence”. This folly has been comprehensively debunked.
Furthermore the assertion that we should willingly equate the lowly standards of “evidence” that we require for specific cases of the everyday and familiar, to the controversial and spectacular (i.e. God) has been utterly refuted.
The tired argument that Iano has been making at EvC for as long as I have been a member here has finally been shown to be that which it is - Yet another failed attempt to legitimise blind faith based belief by falsely equating it with the knowledge and understanding gained through proper scientific investigation.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : Remove bizzarre characters inserted in place of punctuation since site downtime.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 139 by iano, posted 05-13-2008 7:36 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 146 by anglagard, posted 05-15-2008 2:26 AM Straggler has replied
 Message 162 by iano, posted 09-22-2008 7:20 AM Straggler has replied

  
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