quote:
All of these observations suggest that the prior plausibility for demons (derived from an ancient word for "intelligent") ought to be moderately high, say somewhere around .5. The prior plausibility for true Bible Codes is normally considered by commentators as very low, somewhere at the level of .0001, based on the level of statistical significance asked to confirm them. The conditional plausibility for bible codes, given that demons and the rest of orthodox theology is true, is moderate, say .9. Not all wartime communications have such authorizing signatures or codes. This adjusts the prior plausibility of codes by .5x.9=.45, giving us .4501. The product, as noted, of P(H).P(E/H)=.5x.9=.45. .45/.4501=.9999. Thus, the Bible Codes data, to those like myself who think this way, improves the plausibility of demons from .5 to .9999.
I would like to know how you can draw the conclutions that the 'probability' of demons is as high as 50%, while the established prior expected probability of bible codes were only 0.01%.
Surely, if you draw the similarity between demons and for example virus colonies within hosts, demons would be possible to directly detect in a similar manner?
Using the same frame of reference in regard to demons, if I had to put a number on it, it would be much lower, maybe in the range of 0.001%, because divinely inspired codes in such a socially important document seems more likely.
[This message has been edited by Melchior, 02-22-2004]
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