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Author Topic:   A Line of Skulls for Mike the Viz
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 46 of 66 (60746)
10-13-2003 3:53 PM
Reply to: Message 42 by Joralex
10-13-2003 12:15 PM


Well there are a LOT of problems here.
1) So long as you use the bullying tactics of calling anybody who disagrees with you of being a "fanatic" or "invincibly ignorant" instead of supportign your assertions this "horse" remains very much alive
2) Piltdown had very little to do with a "subjective promotion of materialistic Naturalism". There are many reasons why the fake managed to survive (notably the reputations of the scientists involved, and the second specimen - which ruled out an error).
3) Punctuated equilibria has absolutely nothing to do with explaining away specimens that don't fit into the tree of life - and I've never seen any attempts to use saltation to do so either. The fact is that if there was no such pattern evolution would not have been proposed in the first place. The patterns of taxonomy formed one of Darwin's main pieces of evidence.
4) Your comments make it quite clear that you don't understand Dembski's Explanatory Filter and that you write of correct explanatiosn as "nonsense" or a "strawman". Too bad for you.
For an event E to pass the third decision mode of the Explanatory Filter, it is therefore not enough to know that E has small probability with respect to some probability distribution or other. Rather we must know that whatever probability distribution may have been responsible for E, it wasn't one for which the probability of E was either an HP or an IP event
(William Dembski _The Design Inference_ CUP 1998 p 41)
So it is necessary establish an upper bound of the probabilities, as I stated. And for Dembski's argument it is necessary to establish a firm boundary between SP (Small Probability) and IP (Intermediate Probability) events. While in _THe Design Inference_ Dembski allowed the use of local bounds practically all writing - including Dembski's - uses the Universal Probability bound which is supposed to represent an absolute limit instead.
As stated in ISCID's Encyclopdia :
In order for an event to meet the standards of Dembski's theoretical notion of specified complexity, the probability of its happening must be lower than the Universal Probability Bound which Dembski sets at one chance in 10^150 possibilities.
http://www.iscid.org/encyclopedia/Specified_Complexity
(Specified complexity is eseentially another name for an event which passes to the "design" node of the Explanatory filter)
The Executive Director of ISCID is - William Dembski
(http://www.iscid.org/about.php)
5) Actually you did not ASK how many degrees were based on writing about Piltdown - you wrote:
quote:
Does anyone here know how many degrees were 'earned' by writing a thesis/dissertation on the Piltdown skull and its evolutionary role? Does anyone here know how many of those granted degrees were retracted when the skull was discovered to be a hoax? For all I hear about Kent Hovind's "dubious degree", what of the Piltdown cases - why weren't those degrees immediately retracted from their "learned recipients"?
Looks like a rhetorical question to me - and certainly you are assuming that there were such degrees, that there was adequate reason for revoking them and that they were not revoked. Yet there is no evidence that any of these are true. Indeed the only factual information you provide is that a large number of articles was written (which included newspaper and magazine articles). Doubtless the information was distributed (there were scientific papers written and published) but that is far from enough to actually write a dissertation. A dissertation is supposed to be original research and repeating someone else's findings will not do.
And if you had read the talk.origins FAQ you would have seen other problems - Piltdown was not considered a major find by all scientists for those forty years !
In the period 1930-1950 Piltdown man was increasingly marginalized and by 1950 was, by and large, simply ignored. It was carried in the books as a fossil hominid. From time to time it was puzzled over and then dismissed again. The American Museum of Natural History quietly classified it as a mixture of ape and man fossils. Over the years it had become an anomaly; some prominent authors did not even bother to list it. In Bones of Contention Roger Lewin quotes Sherwood Washburn as saying
"I remember writing a paper on human evolution in 1944, and I simply left Piltdown out. You could make sense of human evolution if you didn't try to put Piltdown into it."
6) Rather than asking why you keep posting it would be better for you to ask yourself why you keep making an assertion you are obviously incapable of defending.

This message is a reply to:
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sidelined
Member (Idle past 5930 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 47 of 66 (60776)
10-13-2003 6:51 PM


William Dembski
William Dembski defines Universal Pobability Bound as follows
A degree of improbability below which a specified event of that probability cannot reasonably be attributed to chance regardless of whatever probabilitistic resources from the known universe are factored in. Universal probability bounds have been estimated anywhere between 10^—50 (Emile Borel) and 10^—150 (William Dembski).
I assume this to simply mean that any occurance in the universe that occurs at a smaller probability must be attributed to something other than chance.I remember a passage from James Gelicks book on Richard Feynman where ,for what ever reason, Feynman used the example of a license plate he had seen on his way to the lecture(say TFR-396)and he asked his audience of all the license plates out there what were the odds of him seeing that particular license plate.
I have never found out what the odds were but I have a feeling they are far larger than 10*150.Does this mean that the license plates we see driving past us are so improbable that they cannot be by chance? What would that say about free will?
[This message has been edited by sidelined, 10-13-2003]

Replies to this message:
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JonF
Member (Idle past 190 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 48 of 66 (60777)
10-13-2003 7:02 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by sidelined
10-13-2003 6:51 PM


Re: William Dembski
Universal probability bounds have been estimated anywhere between 10^—50 (Emile Borel) ...
You may find Borel's Law and the Origin of Many Creationist Probability Assertions interesting.
Does this mean that the license plates we see driving past us are so improbable that they cannot be by chance? What would that say about free will?
I don't know. However, shufffling two decks of cards together randomly results in an arrangement with a probability of about 1 in 10166 of occurring, proving that there is no such thing as a meaningful universal probability bound.
(fixed spelling)
[This message has been edited by JonF, 10-13-2003]

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 49 of 66 (60778)
10-13-2003 7:02 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by sidelined
10-13-2003 6:51 PM


Re: William Dembski
Sadly the odds of seeing a particular license plate - even assuming pure chance are far higher - I'd guess about 10^-7.
And unlike some creationists I've run into Dmbski accepts that low probability events can happen by pure chance. If you want to get a low probability the best way is to produce a sequence. Flip a coin 150 times and the probability of that sequence of heads and tails will be less than 10^-50.
So Dembski adds in the concept of specification. If you predicted the sequence of heads and tails in advance that would be a specification. If the sequence is especially odd (e.g. HTHTHT....HTHT or HHHH....HHHH) then that can count as a specification, too and it's this latter sort of specification that Dembski relies on. Or should rely on - he doesn't see the need to actually bother when dealing with biology.

This message is a reply to:
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Loudmouth
Inactive Member


Message 50 of 66 (60779)
10-13-2003 7:03 PM
Reply to: Message 42 by Joralex
10-13-2003 12:15 PM


So, what do we have from you so far, Joralex?
1. Assertions about the fossil record debunking evolution without even posting one scrap of evidence.
2. Piltdown Man is an example of dishonest science, but ignore the fossils that have stood the test of time and investigation (look at the OP). Care to talk about "Lucy" perhaps, or are you on shakier ground when it comes to true scientific evidence?
3. Materialistic naturalism as a faulty scientific basis for investigation, but lack of an alternative. Koch came up with his Germ Theory of Disease by using materialistic naturalism, should we throw that out?
4. Handwaving rebuttals of Dembski's Filter when even Dembski isn't even able to apply it to irreducible complexity.
I grow a bit weary when someone keeps crying wolf without producing a wolf. It is getting a bit tiresome to hear empty assertions and patronizing critiques on metaphysics. I for one am willing to discuss these matters in depth and find it insulting that you believe it is above my intellect or capability. At least science divulges data, methodology, and hypotheses while on the other hand you divulge nothing. It seems to me that you afraid of scientific criticism, something every scientist faces each time he/she publishes a paper (even in other realms behond evolution). Philosophy is a very important aspect of science, but that doesn't mean you can hide behind it.
So, keeping in line with the OP and preventing topic drift, which of the skulls would you classify as human and which would you classify as apes? Did these fossils coexist? Are they examples of malnourished/deformed humans? What are the correct metaphysical assumptions when looking at these skulls, and by what evidence do you think these assumptions are correct?

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 9003
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 51 of 66 (60791)
10-13-2003 9:08 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by sidelined
10-13-2003 6:51 PM


Re: William Dembski
For whatever it means, you are wrong on that license plate probablity estimate. Literally, astronomically wrong !

This message is a reply to:
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sidelined
Member (Idle past 5930 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 52 of 66 (60804)
10-13-2003 10:02 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by NosyNed
10-13-2003 9:08 PM


Re: William Dembski
I misworded the probability as being smaller than 10*150 and I have since edited it.

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sidelined
Member (Idle past 5930 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 53 of 66 (60805)
10-13-2003 10:02 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by NosyNed
10-13-2003 9:08 PM


Re: William Dembski
.
[This message has been edited by sidelined, 10-13-2003]

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 54 of 66 (60829)
10-14-2003 3:27 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by sidelined
10-13-2003 10:02 PM


Re: William Dembski
I'm afraid that correction just created another error. Higher probabilities ARE interpreted as chance events. So your license plate is still chance.

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sidelined
Member (Idle past 5930 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 55 of 66 (61112)
10-15-2003 10:45 PM
Reply to: Message 54 by PaulK
10-14-2003 3:27 AM


Re: William Dembski
I agree. It is time for me to brush up on my probabilities.

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Rei
Member (Idle past 7034 days)
Posts: 1546
From: Iowa City, IA
Joined: 09-03-2003


Message 56 of 66 (61127)
10-16-2003 1:40 AM
Reply to: Message 55 by sidelined
10-15-2003 10:45 PM


Re: William Dembski
How well does your intuition serve you on probability? Are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? It's a good test of probability intuition - I'll cite it in case you're not.
You're a contestant on "Let's Make A Deal!". The host shows you three doors, and you get to pick one. Behind one door is a new car; behind the other two are goats. You pick your door. Monty then points to one of the other doors, and has it opened to reveal a goat. Now, he tells you that you can stay with your original pick, or change doors. Do you stay, change, or does it matter?
------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

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sidelined
Member (Idle past 5930 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 57 of 66 (61131)
10-16-2003 2:01 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by Rei
10-16-2003 1:40 AM


Re: William Dembski
Change

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Asgara
Member (Idle past 2324 days)
Posts: 1783
From: Wisconsin, USA
Joined: 05-10-2003


Message 58 of 66 (61132)
10-16-2003 2:07 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by Rei
10-16-2003 1:40 AM


Re: William Dembski
can I guess also???
Originally you had a 1 in 3 chance of being correct. Now you have a one in two chance either way. Doesn't matter whether you stay or change.
------------------
Asgara
"An unexamined life is not worth living" Socrates via Plato

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 59 of 66 (61136)
10-16-2003 3:43 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by Asgara
10-16-2003 2:07 AM


Monty Hall
Strictly speaking the answer requires that you also know that Mony always chooses to open a door and that his strategy is always to choose a door with a goat behind it.
But here's how it works.
You have a 1/3 chance of being right, and 2/3 of being wrong.
If your original guess was wrong only one of the other doors has a goat behind it and the other one has the big prize. However Monty has eliminated the goat - so if you were originally wrong (a 2/3 chance remember) a switch will always win.
So in this situation you have a 1/3 chance in winning if you stick with your original choice, and 2/3 of winning if you switch.
If Monty chooses randomly between the unchosen doors, however, the situation is different. It really is a 50/50 shot in that case.

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Darwin's Terrier
Inactive Member


Message 60 of 66 (61155)
10-16-2003 9:10 AM
Reply to: Message 42 by Joralex
10-13-2003 12:15 PM


Design, eh?
quote:
Originally posted by Jorex:
[...] Design constitutes the best explanation for this observation.
Yeah, right. Read this and then this. Your 'designer' is an incompetent arsehole.
TTFN, DT

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