Coronavirus and Pandemics

A state with almost 1.5 million people, and over 4500 confirmed infections, but just 30.2 percent of deaths occurred among individuals who were not living in nursing homes or long term care facilities.77 percent of deaths from the coronavirus occurred in the same facilities among Rhode Island's victims.An amazing 81 percent of deaths in Minnesota were among the 1.8 percent that lived in nursing homes and long term care facilities.70 percent in Pennsylvania.The percentages were based on deaths through May 22.I really do feel the USC and Los Angeles health department study was accurate when the death rate per Coronavirus infection was 0.13 outside nursing homes. Overall death rate was 0.26 percent . NOTE THE USC STUDY IS INDEPENDENT OF THE CDC REPORT.

I see Minnesota has 25,000 confirmed infections and 1,050 deaths. A state with around 7 million people.But 81 percent of deaths were among those who lived in nursing homes and long term care facilities.That means that 200 deaths from the disease were from outside the facilities.I don't know how many confirmed infections were from outside the facilities, but it must be at least 15,000.That would mean that the death rate, outside the facilities, is less than 1.4 percent based on confirmed infections.Remember that the studies place the actual number of infected to be around 10 times higher than the confirmed infections.That would mean that the death rate, outside nursing homes and long term care facilities, in Minnesota, is around 0.15 percent.About one death per 750 to 800 infections.We need to CONSIDER the possibility that we are going to have to invest money to protect the elderly and vulnerable. And that means more health care dollars per person must be budgeted. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

It would be interesting, if the data is available, to compare these numbers with the percentage of nursing home deaths from flu infections in previous years and to see if there is an explanation if it is significantly different.

Where I live (population ~ 1 million), we have 11 deaths and 4 in the hospital.

I agree. However, they may be a good model for determining the ratio between asymptomatic and symptomatic carriers.Edited by Adminnemooseus, : Fix quote box.

Comparisons might be difficult because each year a vaccine is developed for that year's annual flu virus strain (the vaccine is more effective some years than others) but not for the SARS-Cov-2 virus. The three assisted living/nursing home facilities I've dealt with over the years all administered the flu vaccine to patients every fall, and I think this is probably true of virtually all of them.Vaccines for H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 can be developed and manufactured to scale on an annual basis because the differences from one annual strain to the next is usually small, and we have a great deal of experience and expertise in gearing up for the latest one each year.--Percy

Another in the continuing series about why you do not want to catch this virus. Researchers warn covid-19 could cause debilitating long-term illness in some patients describes how the virus can not only do "damage to lungs, kidneys and hearts" but also cause "ongoing crushing fatigue, muscle pain, cognitive problems and other symptoms that anyone with ME/CFS is very familiar with." Also:

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If symptoms continue for six months or longer, post-viral fatigue syndrome can convert to a diagnosis of ME/CFS, which is usually lifelong and often devastating. Up to 25 percent of ME/CFS patients are housebound or bedbound for years. There are no treatments approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

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A Virus-Hunter Falls Prey to a Virus He Underestimated - The New York Times describes how virus researcher Peter Piot, 71, became ill with covid-19 after a lifetime of relative health:

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In early March, he went to Boston,...and he was asked 100 questions about the virus.

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No. 79: Should I be worried that I’m going to get Covid-19? How worried are you, Peter?

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He advised: I would do everything I can to avoid becoming infected as you don’t know individual outcomes.

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He became a living illustration of that.
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It hit me like a bus. Extreme exhaustion, like every cell in your body is tired. And my scalp was very sensitive it hurt if Heidi touched it. That’s a neurological symptom.
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I was particularly anxious that I not be put on a ventilator, he said. Ventilators can save lives, but they can also do a lot of harm. Once you’re on one, your chances of surviving are the same as of surviving Ebola about one third.
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He may have to take anticoagulants for the rest of his life, he said, and parts of his lungs may permanently be scarred.

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You do not want to catch this virus.--Percy

Our county just more than doubled our positive cases today - they had 39 positive tests of staff and residents at the local nursing home. Many are asymptomatic. This nursing home put in safeguards early, too, but it only takes one infected person...Not good, folks. It’s going to be a long, tough slog through this.

Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page. There is no clear trend in any direction at present. We're over 104,000 deaths now: Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. Here, too, there is no clear trend. But news reports appear to indicate that the gradual reopening has tempted many to cease wearing masks. Given that the penetration of the virus into the population remains too meager to provide any kind of mitigation and that the situation is essentially the same as in January, it seems unavoidable that the number of cases will begin trending upward soon. The only thing that could stop the upward trend from appearing in the data is a reduction in testing, something the Trump administration greatly desires. But they can't really hide it because rising hospitalizations and deaths will follow within a few weeks.The inadequacy of our contact tracing also leaves us vulnerable. Japan was able to minimize the pandemic's impact by emphasizing contact tracing over testing. With neither aggressive testing or contact tracing we remain vulnerable.--Percy

The provenance and accuracy of data provided by Surgisphere about Covid-19 patients is being called into question. A study based on this data found increased mortality among Covid-19 patients who used chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, causing randomized clinical trials of these drugs to be halted.Another study using this data found no ill effects among users of ACE inhibitor type blood pressure medications.Questions about the data and about these studies will have to be answered. If the data is found insufficiently accurate then the two studies based on them will be invalidated and we'll be back to square one with regard to understanding the safety and efficacy of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine with regard to Covid-19.Source: Scientists Question Medical Data Used in Second Coronavirus Study - The New York Times--PercyEdited by Percy, : Fix title.

More information about masks comes from Medical Workers Should Use Respirator Masks, Not Surgical Masks - The New York Times. Here are the key quotes:

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N95 and other respirator masks are far superior to surgical or cloth masks in protecting essential medical workers against the coronavirus.
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N95 masks offered 96 percent protection, the analysis found, while the figure for surgical masks was 67 percent.

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If you can find an N95 mask then wear an N95 mask.According to Six Months of Coronavirus: Here’s Some of What We’ve Learned - The New York Times, cloth masks are next to useless, blocking only "10 to 30 percent of tiny particles."I'll repeat one more advisory that is mine and mine alone. I have seen it nowhere else. Masks should be worn by everyone, not just the infected. A droplet produced during exhalation and caught by a mask worn by an infected person would also be caught by a mask worn by anyone else during inhalation. Masks prevent the infected from infecting others, and they prevent the uninfected from becoming infected. By "masks" I'm of course referring to effective masks, namely N95 masks. It is a disgrace (Trump's favorite word) that our federal government has not made production of N95 masks one of its highest priorities. You should be able to find them at Rite-Aid, Walgreens, CVS, Walmart and all the rest, but you can't.--Percy

Lancaster County, which is 95 percent Lincoln, has around 1200 to 1300 infections, with 9 deaths.Nebraska, ad a whole, has about 15000 infections and 186 deaths.I was on weather.com and by accident clicked on the Covid link.I did not know that the death rate was so low here. I never paid attention.

Here's another in the continuing series about why you do not want to catch this virus. Opinion | Covid-19 Survivors Need Care. That's the Next Challenge. - The New York Times provides an overview of what the healthcare system will have to deal with because of those suffering longterm debilitating effects from their bout with Covid-19. One excerpt:

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The surge of Covid-19 patients is declining in New York and several other cities, but in its wake, another surge is underway. Many Covid-19 survivors are suffering serious medical problems that will continue to tax the resources of hospitals, rehab centers and other medical providers.

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You do not want to catch this virus.--Percy

Here's another in the continuing series about why you do not want to catch this virus: Hugo Sosa survived the ICU. But for many like him, that’s just the start of recovery. Hugo Sosa, age 53, still struggles at simple tasks like making change. Large clots lodged in his brain. The virus damaged his kidneys, inflamed his liver, substantially weakened his hands, and left him with deep lesions on his face and buttocks. He lost 32 pounds.You do not want to catch this virus.--Percy

Here's another in the continuing series about why you do not want to catch this virus: Opinion | ‘This Is Not the Flu’: What Doctors Say About Their Fight Against Coronavirus - The New York TimesAuthor Ron Suskind used video to document the feelings and reactions of doctors and nurses during the height of the pandemic at two hospitals, New York Presbyterian and Mass General in Boston. It is the saddest thing you will read/see in a long time. You likely *will* cry.It's long, so if you're short of time just scroll down to the first video and watch that. It's 10 minutes long.Full disclosure: I only watched the first video. Believing the rest would be just as sad I stopped. I couldn't take any more.You do not want to catch this virus.--Percy