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Author | Topic: Maths & Probabilities | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NosyNed Member Posts: 9004 From: Canada Joined: |
tHE PRIZE AVERAGES $500,000.00 AND THE USUAL AMOUNT OF TICKETS TURNED IN IS AROUND 230,000 So the value of each ticket you find is about $2. How much time and yuckyness does it cost you to find a ticket, fill it out and turn it in? I guess if you searched bins near a lottery location you might find 5 or 10 quickly so that might be just about worth it. What do you think?
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Phat Member Posts: 18345 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Realistically its likely not worth it, if every factor were calculated in.
I never go out of my way to find tickets, though. At the store, often people will leave stacks of losing tickets near the machine, and the first one who scrounges them up gets to enter them. I'm aware of the statistical odds. In my mind, however, I always try and link God (as I understand and believe in Him) up with it all and magically eliminate the need for statistical improbability. Money is simply one vehicle which I could imagine God using to bless someone. I am at my core a selfish and stubborn individual. My thinking about entitlement is likely flawed, but I cling to it as part of my hope. As you know, I fought and fight gambling addiction my entire adult life, and realize the critical errors in thinking from an intuitive level. Likely I started this topic in the hopes that someone would validate my hope in mathematical reality. Who am I kidding, though? You all even say that God Himself does not likely exist. I wont let go of that belief, however. I dont care if it had actual odds of a trillion to one! Does anyone have any more insights into the science of probability?Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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Tangle Member Posts: 9510 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Phat writes: Does anyone have any more insights into the science of probability? It's not hard Phat, the odds are the number of tickets you have divided by the number tickets entered in the lottery. ie it's essentially zero. But worse, it means you're thinking about it.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
quote: I am not aware of any studies showing a bias in any lottery wins that tend to support the idea of Divine intervention playing a role. On the theological side, my reading on the NT suggests a rather negative view of wealth and that God’s provision should be expected to be more on the lines of a hand-to-mouth existence. I know that isn’t what you want to hear, but that’s the way I see it.
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9197 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.2 |
The prosperity gospel is a scam to separate rubes from their money.
Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness. If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?
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ringo Member (Idle past 439 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined: |
A girl I used to work with had a deal with her boyfriend: On payday, they would go to the casino - but they would only take $20 each and when the $20 was gone, they'd go home. If you must gamble, that seems like a sensible approach.
However, one time they had barely walked in the door when he won $400. He put it into his pocket and they continued until both had used up their original $20. He said it was time to go home but she wanted him to continue with the $400 that he had won. Of course, that's how they get you: If you lose, you want to win it back; if you win, you want to win more so you keep playing until you lose your winnings.And our geese will blot out the sun.
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Phat Member Posts: 18345 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
I totally agree. I am convinced that my gambling is more than simply a brain disorder---it is a plot of Satan, author of chaos. (See the other topic I resurrected)
My problem, among others, is that I may have a faulty concept of God as granter of favor. Blessings are basically favors bestowed. jar used to always pin me with the question of why I expected God to favor me. Once I made a clever reply:
quote:...lets resume our discussion at the older topic. We had a good one going in late 2016, when I was starting my year of sobriety from gambling. My brain was freed from the brain disorder that led me to gamble, and my thoughts were clearer back then. Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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ringo Member (Idle past 439 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined:
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Phat writes:
That may be the best thing you ever posted. Did God so love the pond that He sent His only begotten scum?And our geese will blot out the sun.
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Phat Member Posts: 18345 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
PaulK writes: I am afraid you are right! I used to want to be a Pastor. Now I cringe at the thought. Life is stressful enough already. I'm just mad that God does not seem to statistically favor me. On the theological side, my reading on the NT suggests a rather negative view of wealth and that God’s provision should be expected to be more on the lines of a hand-to-mouth existence. I know that isn’t what you want to hear, but that’s the way I see it.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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Tanypteryx Member Posts: 4444 From: Oregon, USA Joined: Member Rating: 5.1
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Are you asserting that humans are no more special than cockroaches or pond scum? Did God so love the pond that He sent His only begotten scum? It is interesting that you talk about "pond scum" as if it is some horrible, putrid, useless (to humans), waste product like a turd in a punchbowl. I have spent a significant portion of my life studying the life of ponds. What you call scum is probably floating mats of algae that is literally teaming with amazing life. I got a microscope for my birthday when I was 8 years old and have had jars of pond water sitting on my window sills ever since. Endlessly fascinating dramas of life played out if you bothered to look. What I would like to know is what the fuck makes you more special?What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
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AnswersInGenitals Member (Idle past 178 days) Posts: 673 Joined: |
Some denizens of that pond scum were probably staring back up the microscope at your eyeball and thinking “what vile, disgusting, putrid, and totally useless crap the is”. Ultimately, they were right.
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Tanypteryx Member Posts: 4444 From: Oregon, USA Joined: Member Rating: 5.1
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Some denizens of that pond scum were probably staring back up the microscope at your eyeball and thinking “what vile, disgusting, putrid, and totally useless crap the is”. Ultimately, they were right. Yep, I found them much more fascinating than they found me. I was helped on my path toward totally useless crap with a treasured book that I also got for my birthday, A Field Guide to Pond Life. I am still amazed that what I found in those jars of pond water and that book set me on a life long path of discovery.What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
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Phat Member Posts: 18345 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
I could almost imagine God asking me the same thing. Perhaps He used your thoughts....
Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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Phat Member Posts: 18345 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.0 |
Theodoric writes: It almost sounds like you are channeling jar. I wonder how he is doing anyway? He replied to my email and said that EvC got boring...I know that I for one have regurgitated my same topics for over ten years. The prosperity gospel is a scam to separate rubes from their money.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. ~RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
Subjectivism may very well undermine Christianity.In the same way that "allowing people to choose what they want to be when they grow up" undermines communism.~Stile
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9197 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.2 |
said that EvC got boring
That may be true, but I wonder how much of his decision was because he did not get the deference he felt his opinions and arguments deserved.Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness. If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?
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