Coronavirus and Pandemics

The election is in only 8 months and there is a very high probability of a fall wave of Covid-19.Now is the time the US needs to start redesigning the voting process for the election. We have to plan for either an extended voting period or mail in or online and it will take a herculean effort to get something in place even if only the legal framework in that time period.

Not gonna happen, as the president said republicans cant win if more people vote.Edited by frako, : No reason given.

Almost certain.

Apologies for no post of the graph yesterday. I did create the graph image but must have gotten distracted before I had a chance to post it. Here are yesterday's and today's graphs: And here's my projections with those figures for comparison. My projections are falling further and further behind: But I'm going to change tack going forward and use the death projections for the US from COVID-19. Here's the projection graph as of three days ago. The graph is active at the webpage. If you hover over it you'll see figures. And I've created a new table of US deaths that begins on April 1 to see how well the projections hold up. These are the projection figures from their 4/1/2020 graph: By the way, if you're wondering if Jared Kushner's declaration that the states don't really need all those ventilators, the vast majority of people who die will do so while connected to a ventilator. Look at those numbers and tell me the states don't need tens and tens of thousands of ventilators.It's important to remember why I'm doing this. A while back Faith declared that no one knows what's gong to happen, that it's all just hypothetical speculation trying to make Trump bad. Trump's estimates of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths has been questioned not because his underlying data is wrong but because he won't make his underlying data available. The scientists on his team, particularly Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx, should be resigning in protest. They probably believe it important that they remain on his team in order to minimize the damage he does, but everyone around Trump has had that plan, and it hasn't worked for any of them. He lines experts up behind him as if they support what he says, and if they contradict in too overt a way then they disappear. Anyone here want to bet that Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx will still be making podium appearances by the end of April?Or will even Trump be giving daily coronavirus briefings? He's done a number of consecutive daily briefings now, but only because he can treat them like campaign appearances. If and when their campaign aspect diminishes he will lose interest and stop attending, or these White House "briefings" will cease altogether.But that's why I post these data and projections, to show that we do know plenty, and that we make reliable projections that hold up pretty well. Dr Fauci is correct when he says we can't know with any certainty, that it is the virus driving the data and we can only follow it, but our projections are still pretty accurate and very useful.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Grammar.

From Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network:

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Recent work has demonstrated that exhalations, sneezes, and coughs not only consist of mucosalivary droplets following short-range semiballistic emission trajectories but, importantly, are primarily made of a multiphase turbulent gas (a puff) cloud that entrains ambient air and traps and carries within it clusters of droplets with a continuum of droplet sizes.

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Oh, geez, like where did I see that in like five or six messages in this thread? Messages from me, maybe?This isn't rocket science. You don't need a scientific study to tell you that droplet sizes have to range all over the map. It's just common sense, because our mouths are not some kind of super-precise atomizer dispensing precisely sized droplets.The news is still advising that everyone should wear masks because anyone could be the person who's infected, including you. But as I keep saying, if a mask can prevent a droplet from exiting a mouth it can also prevent one from entering. Everyone should wear masks to prevent infection in both directions.New news from To help stop coronavirus, everyone should be wearing face masks. The science is clear | Jeremy Howard | The Guardian: There is now no doubt that people are most contagious during the period when they're without symptoms or have minimal symptoms.If I haven't mentioned footwear before I should have. Large droplets do sink quickly to the floor, like in grocery stores and such. This means that after a visit to the grocery store your footwear could be a veritable nation of virus. When you get home set the shoes aside somewhere outside (the garage, under an awning, a rarely used spare room, but not in living spaces) for three days before wearing again. Alternatively, if you have it, spray them with isopropyl alcohol and rub it in. It they're washable, like flip-flops, wash them.The USTA is advising people to cease playing tennis until the critical period has passed. I think this is way overkill, but you do have to take precautions. I've described these before, but anyway, upon entering spray everyone's hands with isopropyl alcohol and then provide moisturizing lotion. Alternatively use hand sanitizer, but that is very difficult to come by these days. I avoid playing doubles, I don't want anyone on the same side as me, too much potential for close approaches to someone who might be breathing heavily. But today we've decided to hit threes (two on one side, one on the other), but we're only hitting, not playing, and people on the doubles side will position themselves in the alleys about 20 feet apart. This is sort of an experiment, if it doesn't work well (too many close approaches) I won't try it again.--Percy

I was told how hard it was to transmit, when I said it was an airborn AIDS .And then there was SARS, which caused pneumonia. Just like HIV.Eventually I gave up talking much about viruses. I became way more concerned with bacteria, but nobody wants to prepare for anything due to money and cost issues.Not that I said much about bacteria either.Now all of us will feel better and cosy when our governments start to spend the money to prepare for the new manifest reality of viruses. And it will prove to be fiscally responsible and economical as well. The understatement of the 21st century.OTHER Facts. 80 percent of covid 19 death certificates as of April 1 belonged to victims over 65. Another 16 percent of Americans died 45and up. Only 3 percent were 35 to 44. So I can see that the election deciding older folks will be fanatics when it comes to disease preparing issues. Shouldn't they have been that way already, with cancer and such. The sad thing is that they were not.

There were 1150 death certificates.There was 1 death from those ages 1 to 4.The next group with dead was those ages 25 to 34 with 8 deaths.35 to 44 had 33 deaths.45 to 54 had 75 deaths.55 to 64 had 12365 to 74 had 26575 to 84 had 33185 and up had 314

There should be bunkers situated around the country with emergency supplies of medical equipment, among other things, that are sealed, catalogued by expiration date, and used in a constant circulation and resupplied. That we haven't already had stockpiles of medical supplies is just mind-boggling to me. You know, the US is militarily very good at taking extreme precautions by thinking of different war scenarios and stockpiling necessary equipment. It seems they totally dropped the ball when it comes to pandemics or other major catastrophes (like a massive earthquake that cripples the entire West Coast). And you know, its not like they weren't aware of the potential. For decades they made plans for a biological attack. But this is proof that they are woefully and hopelessly inadequate. Our enemies are taking notes right now.Furthermore, the dependence and reliance on the Chinese to make our goods just highlights that anytime they can stop the supply chain necessary to manufacture even American-made things. Apple, Tesla, IBM, you name it, all have parts and components that are exclusively made in China. There are drugs, that even the military relies on, that are manufactured in China. This cannot continue. We are talking about a threat to National Security with this kind of reliance. Its great to trade with other nations and is so healthy for the world economy to do so, but an over-reliance is death. Trump inherited this problem although his actions, inactions, and missteps are greatly exacerbating the problem. Some of his current policies, like downplaying it and not fully implementing the Defense Production Act play a huge roll. And the fact that there are still millions of Americans who refuse to take precautions are the reason why the United States has over 300,000 known cases as of the time of my writing this. It'll be at least 20,000 more by tomorrow.I just back from Costco. My measures were this:- N95 mask
- Gloves and multiple supplies of them on my person
- Goggles to protect against ocular exposure
- Hand sanitizer
- After shopping shed all protective gear and most clothing into trash bags
- Sanitize the the vehicle with Clorox wipes
- Sanitize all the merchandise when you get home
- Shower well with hot waterHalf of the customers seemed to get it and were making valiant attempts at protecting themselves and OTHERS. The other half are still walking around taking zero precautions and basically shitting the virus they aren't aware they have into the atmosphere and infecting 5-25 additional people who refused to take precautions. Rinse and repeat. Expect an exponential increase because of these people.Other countries are actually enforcing the shelter-in-place with roadblocks and jail time. Drastic? Yes. Inconvenient? You bet. Necessary to flatten the curve? Absolutely.There is a reason why the US is leading in cases.And how in the holy fuck are passenger planes still flying? I mean if I were in charge I would shut down airspace immediately. The only exceptions would be military, State, City, UPS, USPS, FedEx and DHL.The longer we don't collectively make better decisions, the longer the economy is going to be shut down. Do things the right way starting right now so that we can hopefully mitigate the length of this impending recession.Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.

We went kind of overboard but we cant argue with the results. 27.109 tests, 1,35% of the population, 977 confirmed cases, , 22 deaths, 109 hospitalised of that 31 in intensive care. While just over our western borer Italy has its hottest spot of the virus. While our number of infected grows at an average of 40 per day. Italy has exponential growth.I think the greatest contribution to our low numbers is that you cant go shopping whiteout a mask, and gloves. Cause lets face it the sick and healthy need to shop for necessities. Pensioners even got their own time to shop, 8 to 10 in the morning, and i think some time in the evening.But we also have dicks that don't listen as evident by the 600 warnings issued by the police for not adhering to quarantine rules. No actual fines or prison sentences that i'm aware of.

You also have Austria to the north and they aren't doing so hot either. These are sensible and compassionate measures. The elderly in this country have been totally forgotten about. There are grassroot efforts being made to help them shop so that they don't risk exposure but what is the government doing for them? Establishing certain hours and strictly enforcing it for their benefit is sensible and humane. We have millions upon millions of dicks in this country and Spring Breakers that place their sex drive above common sense. Our rules are hardly enforceable. It seems the mandatory closures for non-essential businesses is strictly enforced but for individuals, not so much. The only measures are no more than 10 people can be gathered at any one location. You can be fined for not adhering to it, but the cops are so inadequately protected that the last thing they want to do is go interact with 10 or more potentially infected people and bring it back to their families and coworkers. The jails are so inadequately protected that they are trying to limit the amount of people going to jail for low level crimes.Basically this caught everyone with their pants down. Huge wake up call to the world. Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong seem to be the most prepared civilizations thus far, and that is because they learned from their past mistakes via SARS. Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.

Trump Says He Wants to Keep People Off Ventilators in Favor of Unproven Drug Combination, reports Newsweek. At yesterday's coronavirus press briefing, just minutes after Fauci described the process of approving drugs for new uses, Trump said:

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One of the reasons that I keep talking about hydroxychloroquine is that the question that nobody ever asks, and the question that I most hate the answer to, is what happens if you do have a ventilator.

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But when you have a ventilator... and it's working beautifully, I don't like the answer because it's not a very high percentage.

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So I want to keep them out of ventilators, I want to keep them -- if this drug works, it will be not a game changer because that's not a nice enough term. It will be wonderful, it'll be so beautiful, it'll be a gift from heaven if it works, because when people go into those ventilators, you know the answers, and I'm glad you don't write about it.

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The president was completely confusing about ventilators, but he was very clear about hydroxychloroquine. He describes it as "wonderful," "beautiful," "a gift from heaven."We need a president who understands what the scientists are saying, who helps project that message, and who sees the federal government as playing a central role in disasters.We do not need a president who can't construct logically consistent sentences, who contradicts his own scientists, who squabbles with and insults governors, and who thinks the states run the country when things go bad but that the federal government runs the country when things go well.--Percy

I still sometimes can't believe he is actually the President of the United States of America. His stupidity is stunning.

You know, I really, sincerely hope that the Trump cultists aren't so deluded that they're going to kill themselves with unproven "remedies" and unsafe socializing. Not snark. I really don't want to see so much unnecessary illness and misery.But if they are, I sure hope they do it before November. That was snark.

From facebook:

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How to Make a washable Mask w/ filter pocket - Google Docs

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How to Make a washable Mask w/ removable Filter
Researched by: Steve Smith, Serenity Smith Forchion, Felicity Billings (anesthesiologist). If you have questions or suggestions, or wish to be added to a communication document to learn who has items to share, or ideas for distribution, Sign Up here Page Not Found

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THE FILTER The element that distinguishes the BTN style mask from many other homemade masks is the incorporation of a layer of Merv-13 filter material. MERV-13 is a grade that can filter down to .3 microns, small enough to stop a virus. How well it works will depend on many factors, including care taken to insert the filter material and care in fitting the mask to your face.

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GETTING THE RIGHT FILTER
In order to be ‘better than nothing’ for keeping COVID-19 virus out, it must meet these standards

• need MERV-13 or higher: Merv "minimum efficiency rating value" measures the tightness of the weave and its ability to catch tiny particles down to .3 micron (including the COVID-19 virus).
• Or: Home Depot has its own rating number system, FPR, "filter performance rating": need FPR number 10 or higher.
• Or: 3M brand also has their own rating MPR. " micro particle performance rating": need minimum of 1900.

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Some options we found. We focused on furnace filters. We found some already made that we are using, but also found a large wholesale distributor that would be the best to go to.
TOP OPTION: Comes in a bolt of easy to use filter material!

• Buy the filter material in rolls, instead of pulling it out of existing furnace filters.
• Call Air Filters USA, Order Replacement Air Filters Online for Residential or Commercial Air Filtration | Air Filters, Inc. / 8282 Warren Road | Houston, Texas 77040;
• CONTACT: Paul Lipinski / paul.lipinski@airfilterusa.com / 1-800-667-8563 ext 182; Synthetic MERV 14/15 filter media / 24.6" wide x 100 ft long / ASH9MRS-246100 $117.50 for a roll plus shipping. They will cut down industrial rolls and rewind them for mask makers. Their fabric is Merv-14/15, Order and have it shipped UPS to you.

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OTHER OPTIONS WE FOUND: You have to disassemble the furnace filter.

• Brown and Roberts Hardware (local to us in Brattleboro, VT) has Ace brand Merv-13 furnace filters. Call Ed there at 802 257-4566
• Flanders Brand Furnace Filter, go online to get some shipped: search this: PREpleat M13 EXTENDED SURFACE PLEATED PANEL FILTERS
• You local Home Depot may have this in stock: Honeywell FPR 12 filter equivalent to MERV-12 https://www.homedepot.com/...r-Filter-HW12FPR16251/304984285
• Productive Google search examples for rolls of the material: "MERV-13 filter fabric rolls," " hepa filter fabric rolls wholesale";

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If you have a construction mask with replaceable filters you can cut replacements from the material to use. I have one that has a single replaceable filter (looks like a regular cupped filter) and one that has two replaceable filter (looks a bit like smoke mask). You should be able to get the single filter type at hardware stores, like Home Depot, Lowes, Ace Hardware etc, when you get the filter material. We might want to start a new thread on making masks.Enjoy {Message as new topic here - Adminnemooseus]Edited by Adminnemooseus, : New topic message.

common-good constitutionalismshould be based on the principles that government helps direct persons, associations, and society generally toward the common good, and that strong rule in the interest of attaining the common good is entirely legitimate.Socialism, medicare for all, living minimum wage, free college tuition ... etc.One could see a common goal here between the left and the right. Could be interesting.Enjoy