Testing The Financial Apologists

Well you can thank the Republicans for keeping our military strong and updated, just in case another wannabe superpower tries to take the US out. In fact, the biggest danger for the US is implosion from within.

Irrelevant, off-topic, and not factual. But then again par for the course for you.

You need to check your facts.

It has been claimed in this thread several times that inflation in the US is the result of liberal economic policies when the reality is that inflation is a post-covid world-wide phenomenon that the US is weathering better than many other countries of the world. Here's an image making this point from the New York Times: We do have to reduce the annual deficit so that economic growth can shrink the national debt in relation to annual GDP.--Percy

Joe Scarborough is a former Republican congressman from Florida who has moved more toward the center and now co-hosts MSNBC's Morning Joe, which I've never seen. He just wrote a piece in the Atlantic titled America Is Doing Just Fine. He says a lot of positive things about the current state of America, and I thought I'd fact check it.

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Even after the chaos unfolded in Kabul, most Americans told pollsters they supported Biden’s decision to get U.S. troops out after 20 years.

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This appears to be true. While the country was fairly unified in its horror at the chaos and mayhem and loss of life and the abandonment of Afghanistanis who assisted us while we were there, most Americans felt is was past time to get out of Afghanistan. This is from a Gallup report on American public opinion shortly after the withdrawal ( American Public Opinion and the Afghanistan Situation ):

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More recent polling (but conducted before the massive Aug. 26 explosion that killed U.S. service members and many civilians) generally shows a majority negative assessment of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. These include an NBC News poll conducted Aug. 14-17 showing that 61% of Americans say the Afghanistan War was not worth it -- "When it comes to Afghanistan, do you think the war was worth it or not worth it?" -- and an AP-NORC poll from Aug. 12-16 finding that 62% of Americans say the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting.
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An Ipsos survey conducted April 16-18 found 50% supported the idea of the U.S. bringing home "all of its troops from Afghanistan immediately," while 27% opposed. The 2021 Chicago Council Survey, conducted July 7-26, found 70% support for the decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11. A Quinnipiac poll in May found 62% support. A Fox News poll conducted after the April announcement gave respondents two options -- removing all troops or leaving some U.S. troops in Afghanistan for counterterrorism operations -- and found 50% opted for the latter choice, while 37% said that all troops should be removed.

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More recently, even as reports of the Taliban takeover began to dominate the news, Americans appeared to be sticking to their support for the U.S. getting out of Afghanistan. A CBS News poll from Aug. 18-20 found 63% approval of the U.S. removing troops from Afghanistan. A Morning Consult/Politico poll found somewhat more muted support in its Aug. 16-19 poll among registered voters, with 53% supporting and 36% opposing the decision.
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Several commentators have noted a particularly loaded wording in another question included in Morning Consult/Politico polling:

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"Do you believe the U.S. should still withdraw its military presence in Afghanistan if it means it creates an opening for al Qaeda and other terrorist groups to establish operations in Afghanistan?"

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Even with this "directed verdict question," 45% of Americans agreed that troops should be withdrawn, compared with 40% who said they should not.

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The above is from August, 2021. I can't find more recent polling. While Americans favored withdrawal from Afghanistan, it was widely perceived as mishandled and began a slide in Biden's approval ratings that continued until recently.More from Joe Scarborough:

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Childhood poverty has dropped to the lowest level on record;...

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This graph from We can cut child poverty in the United States in half in 10 years - Equitable Growth would seem to confirm that: More from Joe Scarborough:

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teenage pregnancy has done the same;...

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This, too, would seem to be confirmed by this graph from Trends in Teen Pregnancy and Childbearing: More from Joe Scarborough:

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the U.S. dollar has experienced generational highs over the past year;...

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I'm not sure what "generational highs" means, but here's a graph of the value of the dollar over the past 10 years showing that it has risen in fits and starts by quite a bit over that period: More from Joe Scarborough:

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unemployment recently hit a 54-year low;...

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This is confirmed by this graph of the last 50 years of so of the unemployment rate. The graph doesn't go up to the present, but the current unemployment rate is 3.6%, and that's lower than the 1969 54-year-ago closing rate of about 3.7%: More from Joe Scarborough:

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the number of job openings this past year also hit record highs...

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Here's a graph from U.S. job openings surge to new record high, hiring increases | Reuters confirming increases in job openings, but the job openings statistic is misleading because the number grows naturally with growing population. Still, the graph indicates a stunning recent increase: Parenthetically I might add it indicates the need for increased immigration. More from Joe Scarborough:

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Overall, the U.S. economy continues to surge forward despite economists’ dire predictions. America’s GDP grew to $25 trillion last year;...

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Actually, America's GDP in 2022 was $25.4 trillion, and here's a graph from Statistica showing GDP growth for the past ten years: Incidentally, this indicates how a nation reduces its national debt. It doesn't reduce it in raw numbers but as a percentage of GDP by growing GDP. With growing GDP the national debt becomes smaller and smaller percentage-wise. All we need is for the national debt to grow more slowly than GDP.More from Joe Scarborough:

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Texas has a bigger economy than Russia,...

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This is meaningless and would be amazing were it true, but it's not. The 2022 GDP of Texas was 1.88 trillion, that of Russia $4 trillion. Joe's either wrong or was using some other measure than GDP, in which case he should have said.More from Joe Scarborough:

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...and although California is routinely rebuked by right-wing critics, it has the fourth-strongest economy in the world—stronger than Britain’s, France’s, Canada’s, or India’s.

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How do you measure the strength of an economy? I have no idea, but I'll assume he means GDP. The 2022 GDP of California was $3.59 trillion (a lot closer to Russia than Texas), while the GDP's for Britain, France Canada and India in trillions were $2.23, $3.13, $2.14 and $3.39. So California's economy is bigger than all those nations. Pretty amazing given that California has the smallest population at 39 million, while Britain, France, Canada and India have populations in millions of 67.5, 68, 39.6 and 1,420.So there you go. According to Joe Scarborough we're doing pretty well, and most everything he said checks out.--Percy

Population in billions? I think you meant millions.

You have a good example of a proper post. I agree with all of the data except the US Dollar. If you compare it against itself, it is in fact losing purchasing power. It fares well against other fiat currencies, however.I also might point out that numbers of new jobs alone does not indicate improvement if average wages are stagnant or decreasing. (In my opinion, at least)This Scarborough guy seems worth investigating. If he is younger than 60, he might be a good candidate.

Since you are inactive I will not tear this post apart. If you become active again, I will.

Your ignorance and gullibility know no bounds. Loss of purchasing power is popularly known as inflation. Except for rare and brief periods of deflation, which typically indicates a very unhealthy economy (e.g., there was deflation during the Great Depression from 1930 to 1933 and during the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009), the dollar has been inflating, i.e., losing purchasing power, since the beginning of the republic (the industrial revolution made it possible to produce many goods more cheaply, but that drop in prices was due to productivity increases and was a good thing). Yes, high inflation is bad because it is economically disruptive, for instance by discouraging saving and encouraging ownership of hard assets, but the inflation we typically see of 2-3% is healthy and helps drive economic growth. I think the Fed's inflation target is 2%.Perhaps you've heard of penny loaves of bread, which were very common when Benjamin Franklin was a boy. There's been around 7000% inflation since then and we seem to be doing okay.You are letting YouTube idiots scare you with what are basically simple facts of life. Inflation, in other words, the loss of purchasing power, has almost always been with us. With no exceptions every country in the world uses fiat currencies. Stop listening to the YouTube idiots. They are just trying to scare you into believing financial disaster is just around the corner so you'll buy their precious metals. If you adjust the price of gold according to the CPI then it's sort of held its own, but the CPI as currently defined is often criticized for overemphasizing certain commodities. Here's a graph of the price of gold adjusted for the CPI as it existed back in 1980: Gold doesn't look so good now, does it? More jobs seeking workers means increased demand for workers which puts upward pressure on wages. But over the past 40 years, i.e., since Reagan, the purchasing power of the American paycheck has barely budged. That being said, wages have outpaced inflation for over a decade now (the pandemic caused a spike from which we're still adjusting): I know you really believe what the YouTube nuts are telling you, but if it were really true then you'd be able to find real world data backing you up.--Percy

Corrected - thanks!--Percy

More news on the US inflation front today. This is from the Washington Post: Inflation drops to lowest levels since March 2021 as economy cools.Prices for June rose just 3% in the last 12 months, compared to 4% for May. This is a rapid improvement.And wages have risen faster than inflation for the last four months. According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor and Statistics), hourly wages rose .4% from May to June while inflation rose half that at .2%.The currently accepted method for fighting inflation is to raise interest rates, which slows economic activity and reduces demand. That is how the Fed has been approaching this. The trick is to raise interest rates enough to reduce inflation but not so much as to send the economy into recession.Pulling this off successfully is more luck than skill, and while the Fed and the Biden administration in general can take credit for approaching the inflation problem responsibly, that's all they can really take credit for. Economies are too complex and have too many outside influences (the entire rest of the world) for governments to take much credit for economies that do well. The best a government can do is to foster an environment friendly to economic growth, but not too friendly, and hope for the best.There are other factors to consider when handing out credit and blame. This is a graph of inflation over the past five years: Inflation began rising just about the time Biden took office. Those trying to take political advantage blame inflation on Biden, but not even presidents have that kind of power. An economy the size of the US takes months and years to change course. The inflation that began increasing at the beginning of 2021 was already built in to the economy by the years of steady economic growth and large budget deficits. We spent big to recover from the 2008-2009 financial collapse caused by the mortgage security crisis, and we spent big again to get through the covid pandemic. The inflation we've recently experienced was years in the making.And of course there are other factors affecting economies, such as climate change. Does it make sense to spend money now so that Miami doesn't sink beneath the waves some decades into the future? Would spending such money make sense if the rest of the world doesn't make the same investments, and is it already too late anyway, the die cast for a future of encroaching seas and increasingly adverse weather and climate? Should we just live life to the fullest and let our children's children's children deal with the problem, knowing that we'll be dust by the time they are cursing our neglectful exploitation of the planet?--Percy

This article in today's Washington Post, How to protect yourself when buying gold, has some good advice. It makes these points:

1. Advertising for gold investment companies most commonly appears on right-wing media.
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2. Some in the industry are facing "lawsuits by consumers and allegations of fraud by federal and state regulators."
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3. Financial advisers are divided on investing in gold. Some advise against it as a bad idea, others say gold can be part of a balanced portfolio.
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4. Before buying, figure out what it take to immediately cash out. For example, if you pay $1000 for gold, what would you get if you immediately sold it back. If the answer is more than $900 then that's pretty good, because it isn't uncommon for markups to be 10% and above, some way above.
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5. Be skeptical of advertisements "designed to instill fear about the economy."
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6. Also be skeptical of those who appeal to shared political or religious beliefs.

--Percy

It is my experience that one can never sell any precious metal back anywhere close to what an investor paid for them. The promise is always a future one. I have stopped buying them.My basic philosophy is that precious metals are never a good investment. They are an insurance policy for a disruption of the value of fiat currency.My views and beliefs have evolved due in no small part to advice gleaned from this forum.The most valuable insight, I think, was the insight that algorithms determined the content that I received online. It allowed me to balance my perspective with counterintuitive information.As of late, I have been focusing on how to survive semi-retirement with the limited financial resources I have and expect to have at my disposal.Coming from a moderate-conservative background, I am finding that I (will) have to count on some of the government programs that the algorithmic information told me would fail.I still believe that the financial future of the planet at large is shaky.Uncertainty suddenly seems like the new normal.

Two years later, Gold and Silver are achieving record highs over the past month. If anything, I feel that natural market factors are now overcoming the artificial manipulation of these commodities. This year (2024) will see some extreme events in the financial as well as the political realms. I don't see the rich behind this move. I see the people concerned about preserving the value of their assets.

post original posts so we can see context.