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Author Topic:   Should intellectually honest fundamentalists live like the Amish?
bernd
Member (Idle past 3999 days)
Posts: 95
From: Munich,Germany
Joined: 07-10-2005


Message 208 of 303 (233457)
08-15-2005 3:04 PM
Reply to: Message 203 by Faith
08-15-2005 5:42 AM


Re: The point of the discussion?
Hello Faith,
I hope you don't mind, when I join the discussion, I have just some remarks to add. You are claiming that
Faith writes:
age is not really a functional factor in the practical seeking of oil. Physical considerations such as depth, position, composition and hardness of rock etc. are the useful factors, and the conventional labels of the various strata such as "Paleocene" and "Cretaceous" and "Mississippian" are no doubt also of use for identifying the conditions favorable or unfavorable to the location of oil or anything else. Age is really quite incidental to the process in all the descriptions so far given
I think we can agree that a correct understanding of a structure like the Mississippi Interior Salt Basin helps to decide where to drill for oil. But how do we get this information about depth, position, composition and hardness of rock? We have only sparse direct observations, for example by drill holes, which give exact but punctual information and by aeromagnetic or seismic data, which are useful for the big picture, but don’t provide much detail.
That means, to build a stratigraphic map we have to interpret the data, better said, to connect the dots. This connection will be more accurate when it is based on a adequate model of basin formation. The description of basin scale stratigraphy is helpful, it is needed for predicting changes in depositional setting, lithology, and texture when logs or core are not available [1], but it is not sufficient, a regional scale model of burial and thermal history is necessary for the prediction of trends in hydrocarbon accumulation, as we can see from the following quotes [1]:
Burial-history modeling is crucial in crucial in determining the generation, migration, and preservation of hydrocarbons in the basin. Since it is dependent upon a sound regional model for the basin's tectonic and depositional history, the magnitude of depositional and erosive events are critical to interpreting the
burial and thermal history
Thermal history modeling, which builds on burial history modeling, is crucial to deter-
mining whether a basin has hydrocarbons in commercial quantities and whether they are oil, natural gas, or both. Information critical to thermal analysis includes determining present-day heat flow and paleoheat flow and thermal conductivity, as well as the amount and type of kerogen and timing of heating events.
The mentioned models for basin formation, burial history and thermal history are based on physical processes which require almost always time spans in the order of millions of years . That should be evident after a short look at the plots of BasinMod [2], the program for basin modeling which was used by the authors of the quoted article.
But that’s probably not enough to convince you, therefore lets have a look at one of the models. (The following argument is a paraphrase from [3], page 179, Thermal and subsidence History of Sedimentary Basins)
The basic idea here is to explain one type of sedimentary basin as result of cooling. Assumed is an area which at one point in history was hot, for example due to volcanic activity or seafloor spreading. At this time no sediment covered our region , the top layer had a temperature T(1) and the density rho(m). When the surface cools down, for example because the volcanic activity stops, the contraction of the rocks causes subsidence and in consequence the development of a basin. Under the assumption that there is sufficient supply, the basin will be filled by sediments (if not a deep ocean basin will develop). In both case is the depth of the resulting basin proportional to the square root of time.
The depth can be calculated by
y = ((2*rho(m)*alpha(m)*( T(1)-T(0)) /(rho(m)-rho(s))) * ((k(m)*t)/pi)^0.5
With
rho(m) - density of mantle
rho(s) - density of sediment
alpha(m) - volumetric coefficient of thermal expansion (mantle)
T(1)-T(0) - temperature difference between base and surface
k(m) - thermal diffusivity of mantle
t - time since cooling started
With a slight modification we can use the same expression to calculate the depth of each layer of sediment, instead of the time since cooling started, we use the time since sedimentation started.
An example of a basin which was created by cooling is the Los Angeles basin. Volcanic rocks from drill holes have ages between 10 and 15 million years. At about 10 million year BP volcanic activity ceased and the basin started to develop.
When we apply the model to the south west block of the basin, which is the site of several major oil fields and therefore geologically well known, we get reasonable good agreement between the measured and the predicted depths of Pleistocene and Miocene layers. (At an age of 10 million years, the model predicts about 2.9 km)
When we assume an age of the earth of 10.000 years, the model would predict a maximum of 94 m for the depth of the LA basin and for all other basins as well. Because in real life most of the basins are deeper than 100 m, the model is not compatible with the assumption of a young earth .
Your conclusion is probably, that for this reason the model has to be wrong. In this case I would ask two questions:
When the world is only 10000 years old, nearly all the models from standard geology - at least all which have something to do with heat, kinetic energy, friction and so on - would not only be wrong but useless.
Why does the oil industry ignore this?
Why don't we see a successful tool for oil exploration based on young earth assumptions?
- Bernd
References
[1] Whoops! Page Not Found | Petroleum Technology Transfer Council
[2] PRA | Platte River Associates – Serving the Global Oil and Gas Industry for over 25 years!
[3] Turcotte, Schubert (2001)
Geodynamics
Cambridge University Press

This message is a reply to:
 Message 203 by Faith, posted 08-15-2005 5:42 AM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 210 by Silent H, posted 08-15-2005 5:31 PM bernd has replied
 Message 213 by Faith, posted 08-17-2005 12:14 AM bernd has replied

bernd
Member (Idle past 3999 days)
Posts: 95
From: Munich,Germany
Joined: 07-10-2005


Message 212 of 303 (233850)
08-16-2005 8:29 PM
Reply to: Message 210 by Silent H
08-15-2005 5:31 PM


Re: The point of the discussion?
Hello Holmes,
Thank you very much for your kind words. Concerning my first argument, I think you did a great job explaining the point - far better than I did - and I understand your frustration quite well, that this has, as it seems, not been appreciated by Faith. On the other hand, sometimes an argument has to be rephrased differently several times to enhance its chance to sink in - specially when it touches or contradicts deeply rooted personal convictions. Maybe I’m a bit nave in this respect, but I think one should give it another try. After all, isn’t the declared motto of this forum knowledge and understanding through discussion?
- Bernd
This message has been edited by bernd, 17-Aug-2005 02:42 AM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 210 by Silent H, posted 08-15-2005 5:31 PM Silent H has not replied

bernd
Member (Idle past 3999 days)
Posts: 95
From: Munich,Germany
Joined: 07-10-2005


Message 214 of 303 (234679)
08-18-2005 9:13 PM
Reply to: Message 213 by Faith
08-17-2005 12:14 AM


Re: The point of the discussion?
Hello Faith,
You dismissed my hint that "BasinMod" - a tool used for basin modeling in the oil industry - is based on physical processes which almost always require long time spans, that is millions of years, with the following sentences:
Faith writes:
It's evident from your links that millions of years are ASSUMED, but "required" isn't so certain. That the OE time spans are used is apparent in the graphs at the BasinMod site, although I really can't tell what importance those graphs have. IN one graph they show that particular strata or time periods (Jurassic etc) are at a particular depth but that's a physical thing, not a time thing. But I suppose this is just my naivete talking.
The only thing in your post that suggests a real USE for the millions of years is the math, the formula you give for calculating depth, but since I can't follow the formula it's as good as meaningless to me.
First a clarification. It's not the "math", it's the underlying physical process which leads to a geological time span. In our case we observe a certain pattern - the shape of a basin which leads to a hypothesis that it is has been formed by conductive cooling. This hypothesis can be tested by measurements of heat flow, lithosphere thickness and basin depth. When we have established that conductive cooling is in fact the main process responsible for basin formation basic arithmetic tells us the age of the basin floor, a prediction which can be tested by radiometric or paleomagnetic measurements. A competing model has to obey the same restrictions: it has to present a plausible physical process and to show that its predictions are reasonable matched by the known observations.
When we for example compare the standard and the creationist model for the development of an oceanic basin through seafloor spreading, plate tectonic and catastrophic plate tectonic, we can dismiss the latter easily by two criteria: first, the proposed physical process - rapid convective cooling near the ridge by superheated steam - is not plausible, because there is not enough water in present day oceans to cool the lithosphere and second, the rapid cooling would lead to a different shape of the basin.(see [1], [2]) And not to forget, radiometric and paleomagnetic dating indicate that seafloor is much older than YEC assumptions would allow.
Speaking of radiometric dating, BasinMod is relying on it - see [3] - its modeling of thermal history uses Apatite Fission Track Analysis, short AFTA, which is described in [4]:
AFTA thermal history reconstructions provide direct determination of the timing (as well as the magnitude) of maximum paleotemperatures. When combined with conventional maturity indicators, particularly vitrinite reflectance (VR), this approach allows identification and characterisation of the major episodes of heating and cooling which have affected a sedimentary sequence. Specifically, the Geotrack methodology of Thermal History Reconstruction provides the following information:
  • magnitude of maximum paleotemperatures in individual samples
  • timing of cooling from maximum paleotemperatures
  • the style of cooling from maximum paleotemperatures (fast; slow)
  • characterisation of mechanisms of heating and cooling
  • measurement of paleogeothermal gradients and determination of paleo-heat flow
  • determination of section removed by uplift and erosion (where appropriate)
  • reconstructed thermal and burial/uplift histories based on these parameters
Using this information the thermal history of likely hydrocarbon source rocks can be reconstructed with confidence, on the basis of measured parameters, rather than relying on modelled results which often have little rigorous basis. The resulting improvements in assessment of hydrocarbon prospectivity is clearly beneficial in reducing exploration risk.
The technical background is explained here [5]:
AFTA (Apatite Fission Track Analysis) and ZFTA (Zircon Fission Track Analysis) rely on analysis of radiation damage features ("fission tracks") in detrital apatite and zircon grains, respectively, within sedimentary rocks. Fission tracks are produced continuously through geological time, as a result of the spontaneous fission of 238U atoms. Once formed, tracks are shortened (annealed) at a rate which depends on temperature, and the final length of each individual track is determined by the maximum temperature which that track has experienced. Therefore as the temperature to which an apatite or zircon grain has been subjected increases, all existing tracks shorten to a length determined by the prevailing temperature, regardless of when they were formed. After the temperature has subsequently decreased, all tracks formed prior to the thermal maximum are "frozen" at the degree of length reduction they attained at that time.
As you may have noticed, that's not a scientific description, that‘s the text of a company - Geotrack - which offers tools for the analysis of thermal history for the oil industry. Which leads me to another question:
Why is radiometric dating used - with some success as it seems - in the oil industry? If YEC assumptions are correct, all radiometric methods should be useless.
-Bernd
P.S.
I‘m not sure what you mean with your remark that volcanoes cool down in human time.
Please explain. In each case have a look at this table which provide some data for lava cooling[6]. Consider that oceanic crust is 6km, oceanic lithosphere up to 100 km thick.
References
[1] Message 150
[2] Message 155
[3] PRA | Platte River Associates – Serving the Global Oil and Gas Industry for over 25 years!
[4] Track Formation
[5] Apatite Fission Track Analysis (AFTA) and Geotrack
[6] Lava Flow Cooling - John Seach

Here are some links and definitions. I hope you'll find them useful.
Geothermal gradient: The rate of increase in temperature per unit depth in the Earth. Although the geothermal gradient varies from place to place, it averages 25 to 30 oC/km
see: http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=geo...
Heat flow: Heat transfer or heat flow is the process whereby heat flows from regions of higher to regions of lower temperature. Heat is the transfer of thermal energy between two bodies which are at different temperatures.
see Heat transfer - Wikipedia
Vitrinite reflectance: the study of vitrinite reflectance is a key method for identifying the temperature history of sediments in sedimentary basins. The reflectance of vitrinite was first studied by coal explorationists attempting to diagnose the thermal maturity, or rank, of coal beds. More recently, its utility as a tool for the study of sedimentary organic matter metamorphism from kerogens to hydrocarbons has been increasingly exploited. The key attraction of vitrinite reflectance in this context is its sensitivity to temperature ranges that largely correspond to those of hydrocarbon generation (i.e. 60 to 120C). This means that, with a suitable calibration, vitrinite reflectance can be used as an indicator of maturity in hydrocarbon source rocks. Generally, the onset of oil generation is correlated with a reflectance of 0.5-0.6% and the termination of oil generation with reflectance of 0.85-1.1%.
see Vitrinite - Wikipedia
Tmax: the maximum temperature of a probe
Paleogeothermal gradient: the temperature gradient at the measured age of the probe
Paleoheat flow: the heat flow at the measured age of the probe
Thermal conductivity: the ability of a material to conduct heat
see Thermal conductivity - Wikipedia
Total organic carbon: The amount of carbon which is bound in organic compounds in a water sample
see Total organic carbon - Wikipedia
Kerogen type
see Kerogen - Wikipedia

This message is a reply to:
 Message 213 by Faith, posted 08-17-2005 12:14 AM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 215 by Faith, posted 08-20-2005 9:13 AM bernd has not replied
 Message 216 by AdminNosy, posted 08-20-2005 11:32 AM bernd has replied

bernd
Member (Idle past 3999 days)
Posts: 95
From: Munich,Germany
Joined: 07-10-2005


Message 221 of 303 (235097)
08-20-2005 9:03 PM
Reply to: Message 216 by AdminNosy
08-20-2005 11:32 AM


Re: Topic please...
Hello AdminNosy,
AdminNosy writes:
A good post but one that doesn't belong with this topic
First of all, thank you for the compliment. Whether my post was off topic I'm not so sure, I was under the impression, that the real topic of this thread has been first mentioned in this paragraph [1]
The ToE and the Geo Time Scale are imaginative constructs, interpretations, science only in the most general and tenuous sense. This is the contention and the limit of the dispute with "science." They aren't science, merely frameworks within which science works, unfortunately, as they only mislead. Nobody has any problem with the actual science at all, the geology, the biology, the lab work, the field work, the genetics, and certainly not engineering. That's real science. Good stuff. Get rid of the ToE and the GeoTime stuff and real science can proceed with more with more freedom and less waste
and has found a concise formulation in the following claim [2]:
My perfectly valid point is that age is irrelevant to the task of finding oil by stratigraphic means. It's a fact.
which I think was the focus for the rest of the debate. Given that as starting point, to discus how oil exploration is supported by basin modeling, which is based on processes that require geological time spans, seemed not too far fetched to me.
But I understand, that from your point of view it's a discussion which is poorly connected to the OP and hold in the wrong forum. Therefore I will not continue this debate in the current thread. On the other hand I think it's fair to address the remaining questions of Faith somehow. Would it be acceptable to reuse the second half of my post 214 as OP in a new thread - for example of the "Dates and Dating" forum?
-Bernd

References
[1] Message 10
[2] Message 31
This message has been edited by bernd, 21-Aug-2005 03:06 AM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 216 by AdminNosy, posted 08-20-2005 11:32 AM AdminNosy has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 222 by Faith, posted 08-20-2005 11:33 PM bernd has not replied

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