Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top

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which is more effective, one long trip out of the city, or lots and lots of short trips to local higher ground?

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This is really the best comment you've made so far.But seeing as how the Superdome was a questionable shelter that could well have become a deathtrap, I would not rule moving to higher ground.

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have you ever been in a hurricane? i mean, honestly. because it sure sounds like you have no idea what you're talking about. when the roads are closed, it's because you SHOULDN'T be on them, because it's too dangerous to be out there.

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I've chased them with meteorology students. Had I been paying closer attention to this one, I might have been in Biloxi. It's probably fortunate that I didn't. I rode out Lili in a parking lot, althought technically that doesn't quite count since we didn't get into the hurricane-force wind core. We were quite able to drive in it though well up to sustained tropical storm force winds.We also toured Mobile the morning after Ivan. (Ivan ditched us at the last moment by turning towards Pensacola, and yes, it was too late then to drive around...had we done so we would have devoured by crustaceans at the bottom of Escambia Bay, seeing as how the bridge was out). However, the storm surge in Mobile the next morning did not impede our progress at all. We were able to extricate ourselves from the home we were staying in (nearly 100 ft above sea level, btw) with handsaws and exited the State by mid-morning.I've been meaning to call one of my old profs to ask who went down there for Katrina. That image is impressive but misleading. The hurricane-force wind core only extend 120 miles or so from the eye. You could drive in probably 90% of those warm colors in that IR image without too much trouble.But all of this is irrelevant because there wasn't any traffic still on the roads when the storm hit. Again, you offer nothing but speculation.

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However, when looking into the origins of this 200 mph wind security in the Superdome, CNN reported that no engineering study has ever been completed on the amount of wind the structure can withstand; the building's engineering study was underway as Hurricane Katrina approached and was put on hold. It was used as an emergency shelter although it was not designed nor tested for the task.

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i had not heard this yet. however, evacuation to the superdome has been part of the nola evacuation plan for years. they've done it before. they just normally don't have to worry about category 4 and 5 hurricanes. uh, no. you specified a time. it's not my fault if you're inconsistent. and you have no justified yours that 500 would be enough to collect and evacuate the entire city of nola, forcibly, and safely during a hurricane. uh, try the paper:

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Times-Picayune

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Monday, August 29, 2005

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Water encroaches along lake front
Waves crashed atop the exercise path on the Lake Pontchartrain levee in Kenner early Monday as Katrina churned closer. Police maintained a high profile on the streets, but civilian traffic was almost non-existent.

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that "early monday" btw was probably post-midnight sunday, as this was pre-landfall, at 7 am. the article several posts above is dated at 3 am. http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlogs...

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אָרַח

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Water encroaches along lake front
Waves crashed atop the exercise path on the Lake Pontchartrain levee in Kenner early Monday as Katrina churned closer. Police maintained a high profile on the streets, but civilian traffic was almost non-existent.

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Fair enough, but unless it's on the interstate it won't impede driving. Minor storm surge is not a mobility issue unless are literally on the beach, or in case, near Ponchartrain.The "non-existant" civilian traffic makes my point, and the police retreat to safer locations when it gets dangerous.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 10:42 PM

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uh, no. you specified a time. it's not my fault if you're inconsistent.

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What are you talking about?

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and you have no justified yours that 500 would be enough to collect and evacuate the entire city of nola, forcibly, and safely during a hurricane.

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I never said 500 buses would evacuate the entire city, especially not forcibly. I do insist that it would be "safe", considering that everybody else got out just fine.By the way, I've never heard of "forcible" evacuations prior to this storm. Mandatory evacuations mean that emergency services will not come to your assistance during the storm because of danger to first responders. But that doesn't mean they'll arrest you and throw you in the back of a truck.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 10:49 PM

it was also the first comment i made to you, which you rejected. yes, well, it was the best they could really do. and your proposal is downright unrealistic. why don't we factor in transporters from star trek while we're at it? if only mayor nagin had invented those in time! personally, i try to be indoors by the time the reddish bits hit. normally, the city feels the same way.just because you're daring enough to drive around in a hurricane doesn't mean that a huge convoy of buses would have the same luck. source? keep in mind that hurricanes are still dangerous BEFORE "true" landfall. tropical storm force winds and gusts of hurricane speeds are dangerous enough -- but the storm is counted as making landfall when the center crosses land, not when the land experiences hurricane force winds. at 7 am when the eye made landfall, nola should have already been getting category 3 or 4 winds.but then, you knew that, right? actually, that's all you offered. all you've got is a bunch of could-haves that nobody can say for sure, and a bunch of should-haves that nobody did. you've SPECULATED that 500 buses could evacuate the entire city safely. and that's just silly.

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it was also the first comment i made to you, which you rejected.

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I didn't say it was sound, just better than your blind speculation about the supposed danger of evacuating on buses.

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yes, well, it was the best they could really do. and your proposal is downright unrealistic. why don't we factor in transporters from star trek while we're at it? if only mayor nagin had invented those in time!

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Because the Star Trek transporters have to be used to magically move in tens of thousands of National Guard troops before liberals blame a five-day wait on Bush.

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just because you're daring enough to drive around in a hurricane doesn't mean that a huge convoy of buses would have the same luck.

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Remember that bridge I mentioned that was out? A truck driver, sadly enough, was killed on it during the storm. But it proves that until he decided to cross a bridge that he should have avoided, his high-profile vehicle was able to follow roads that generally trended only a mile or so from the ocean.And I never said that it would be "during a hurricane". The traffic out of the city was gone before tropical-storm force winds came up. Your own source said that when the first signs of flooding from Ponchartrain occured, the streets were empty except for police. And again, even the police usually take shelter before the roads really become untenable.You have still failed to support your assertion that there would not have been time to get the buses out.

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actually, that's all you offered. all you've got is a bunch of could-haves that nobody can say for sure, and a bunch of should-haves that nobody did. you've SPECULATED that 500 buses could evacuate the entire city safely. and that's just silly.

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No, you misrepresented me.I said that 3,000+ buses could evacuate the city with room to spare, based on my estimates of the public school population from the US Census. But Crashfrog provided a very different number with a source. 500 buses would only get out 20,000 people, but that's still a lot. About the same number that were in the Superdome when the storm hit, and I've already posted the fact that the Superdome was probably a lousy place to be from a structural standpoint.I am going to politely ask that you stop building strawmen.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 10:57 PM

alright, that's the 90, the 11, the 22, and the 10 in one direction ruled out. all those go across the lake. the 10 in the OTHER direction goes near the lake, and the 55 that branches off of it crosses a pretty big inlet/canal into the lake.considering that the storm surge was at least 15 feet (it did go over the levees) that rules out nearly every road out of nola, all except the 66, after a certain point. and the 66 and 10 go over a huge swamp -- ie: lots of water.and this was not MINOR storm surge.wanna re-think this point? no, it doesn't. it makes MY point. nobody wants to be out driving with massive storm surge and high winds. and if they are, they're not going to be on the small roads, are they?

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C'mon. I've driven to New Orleans myself in about 6 hours. You're telling me that getting thousands of troops who already have their own transportation from three or four states away across an interstate highway build for that express purpose takes longer than, say, three times what it would take me to drive there myself in normal conditions? If you can't get a National Guardsman from here to there in under 18 hours then either we've suffered a nuclear attack by Soviet Russia or someone dropped the ball.

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alright, that's the 90, the 11, the 22, and the 10 in one direction ruled out. all those go across the lake. the 10 in the OTHER direction goes near the lake, and the 55 that branches off of it crosses a pretty big inlet/canal into the lake.

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considering that the storm surge was at least 15 feet (it did go over the levees)

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According to a previously cited quote from WikiPedia, the levees were breached at 11 AM on Monday morning. Are you trying to say that the evacuation would have been postponed that late?

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that rules out nearly every road out of nola, all except the 66, after a certain point.

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The key words are after a certain point.You continue to needlessly insist that the evacuation buses would not have left New Orleans until the storm was already on top of the city. That's a needless assumption that you still have not justified.I have no need to rethink the point when you insist on resorting to logical fallacies (begging the question).

you specified the time of city shut-down: 9pm sunday. uh, no. you were arguing that they could have done it AFTER everyone else was off the highway, under huge storm surge and high winds. you said they could have done after 9pm, when the roads were closed. i'm not blaming the victims here -- but most people prefer to ride out hurricanes in their own homes, or with friends and loved ones in a safer (familiar) place. these are the people in trouble now, that the right is blaming nagin and blanco for not evacuating.

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C'mon. I've driven to New Orleans myself in about 6 hours.

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How much debris was in the road, what was the current storm surge level, and how sound were the bridges?How many thousands of pounds of supply did you bring? How many hundreds of soldiers did you need to get into your convoy? And how long did it take the governor to give you orders?I bet your vacations are more interesting than mine.

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You're telling me that getting thousands of troops who already have their own transportation from three or four states away across an interstate highway build for that express purpose takes longer than, say, three times what it would take me to drive there myself in normal conditions? If you can't get a National Guardsman from here to there in under 18 hours then either we've suffered a nuclear attack by Soviet Russia or someone dropped the ball.

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Sorry, but three to five days is the standard response time, and has been for years.

uh, no. i'm talking about the storm surge that was OVER THE TOP of the levees well before that. you said they could have left after 9pm sunday. not me. that's the certain point here. your point is downright ludicrous.maybe they could have done it before then. but that's just speculation on your part. evacuating a city is not an easy task. i think you need to stick to a point, and stop blaming others for speculating when they're calling you on your own ridiculous speculation.

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you specified the time of city shut-down: 9pm sunday.

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Yes, I did.I did not specify the time at which the evacuation buses would have left the city. You are assuming that they left immediately before the roads were closed. Why, I do not know.

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uh, no. you were arguing that they could have done it AFTER everyone else was off the highway, under huge storm surge and high winds. you said they could have done after 9pm, when the roads were closed.

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The fact that there was nobody still on the road at that time proves that everybody was able to get out. You need to show that if we added 500 buses, everybody would not be able to get out.You keep insisting over and over again to the point of absurdity that no, they couldn't all get out, but you haven't done anything to substantiate.

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these are the people in trouble now, that the right is blaming nagin and blanco for not evacuating.

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And blaming Bush will make it better for the victims?Come on, you know you're making political hay. This has nothing to do with the victims, does it?This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 11:08 PM

so the national guard can't do it in 18 hours AFTER the hurricane, but 500 buses can DURING? oh, speculation, speculations. why are you so forgiving and understanding of difficulties and shortcomings HERE, but can't understand why outrunning a hurricane in 20 foot storm surge with 500 buses is harder than it sounds?

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maybe they could have done it before then. but that's just speculation on your part. evacuating a city is not an easy task

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No, when Blanco and Nagin are thinking about it's not an easy task.When FEMA does it suddenly they are grossly incompetent for taking longer than a day.Be consistent.

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i think you need to stick to a point, and stop blaming others for speculating when they're calling you on your own ridiculous speculation.

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My assertion isn't "ridiculous": load people on buses and send them out of the city.You haven't shown why it can't be done, instead you have this idea, obviously pulled from thin air, that it would clog the interstates and they couldn't make it out.I'm waiting on you to show that that's the case.