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Author Topic:   Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 69 of 297 (240723)
09-05-2005 9:40 PM
Reply to: Message 67 by Nuggin
09-05-2005 9:34 PM


Re: FEMA
maybe congress should arrange a permanent vacation?

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 Message 67 by Nuggin, posted 09-05-2005 9:34 PM Nuggin has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 102 of 297 (240915)
09-06-2005 7:26 PM
Reply to: Message 87 by berberry
09-06-2005 8:44 AM


Re: FEMA
If you'll do a search on her quote you'll have no trouble finding the audio.
American Public Media Archive (click)
You need realplayer to listen to it.

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 Message 87 by berberry, posted 09-06-2005 8:44 AM berberry has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 145 of 297 (243158)
09-13-2005 10:33 PM
Reply to: Message 143 by Peal
09-12-2005 3:10 PM


Re: Brown is gone
yep.
and president botch is probably hoping that this will take the pressure off the rest of the misunderadministration

we are limited in our ability to understand
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RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 245 of 297 (243931)
09-15-2005 8:14 PM
Reply to: Message 243 by gene90
09-15-2005 2:32 PM


Some points ...
gene90, welcome to the thread.
Unfortunately I was away for a good portion of this looking into problem created by the hurricane for work our company had lined up ... in New Orleans. This meant looking for other places to do the work and other supplies of equipment. It's been pretty hectic.
The original intent of this thread was not to list all the people at fault but to point out the particular failure of the Department of Homeland Security.
I've read your posts and you have some interesting points, but I want to make a couple things clear that I think are being obscured here:
(1) The department of Homeland Security was created under this administration specifically to bring together different agencies and levels of government (local to federal) to handle disasters, and that previous failures of FEMA are irrelevant to the failure of DHS to improve the system: I think we can agree that FEMA is not one scintilla better in this system than it was before.
(2) The mission of DHS is to lead from the national level - the mission statement reads "We will lead the unified national effort to secure America ... and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to the nation." I think we can agree that pretty words do not mean squat when there is no substance behind them.
(3) There was an exercise run in 2000 that simulated this event rather well, and there was no mention in any of the articles I've seen on it about any problems uncovered by the simulation. I have to wonder who ran that simulation, where is it now, what did they miss and why was the plan embodied in the simulation not followed. If that plan called for the city to assemble the people in the superdome and then have the Feds come in to provide relief, then I don't think we can fault the Mayor if he was following that plan and no other had replaced it. That being said, I'm sure that we can both agree that there should have been a better plan, the only question would be where it should come from.
(4) Whether the city had a plan or not, given the mission of the DHS, and the known hazard of this event, there should have been at least one person in DHS assigned to (a) ensure that the city had a plan, (b) ensure that the people in the city knew what the plan was, (c) ensure that the city plan was properly coordinated with a state and federal plan and resources, (d) that the {plan\coordination} was feasible, practical and implementable, (e) that key milestones were built into the plan so that each step is keyed to an {event\level\crisis} to ensure quick {activation\implementation\response}, (f) that the plan was multi-layered so that failure of one part would not jeopardize the remainder. I think we can agree that there is no evidence of any such work by anyone at DHS for this, the #3 worst on their list possible disasters.
(5) The people appointed to run DHS and FEMA were evidently ill equipped to know what to do in this situation. I hope we can agree that Brown was a total failure, and that Chertoff is not any better, both being political appointments where party connection was more important than actual ability. I think we could agree that (in general) a president - if one were concerned about getting the job done properly - would be most concerned about having the best possible people to fill the various positions rather than those with connections to the deepest pockets.
I think the biggest disagreement we will find is the level of government most responsible for ensuring that there is adequate planning to protect the people -- you have been arguing pretty much that it is the local level first and foremost and then up to the state before reaching the federal level (correct me if I'm wrong).
I think what we have here is very strong evidence that the {common conservative small government, local first model} fails to provide the necessary level of protection that (all) Americans should be able to expect.
To begin with, cities are not {prepared\equipped} to deal with this level of crisis. They don't have enough {fire\medical\first responders}, enough {security\traffic control\police} to provide the level needed, particularly when these people are also ones that need the help.
The city could have had a wonderful evacuation plan that commandeered every single bus, truck, train, whatever to move people out of the city, but what happens when you reach the city boundary? The state boundary? How can the city {know\plan\ensure} that there are adequate {resources\places\assistance} where the people end up?
The states resources are not that much better: the governor can call in the national guard and send in state troopers, but that's about it.
What you need for any evacuation from any place is:
- a secure place of refuge
- food, shelter, clothes,
- medical\emotional assistance
- communication\identification\recognition
- {abe} a way to get people there in a reasonable manner {/abe}
And you can't have a city or a state plan that does not have these elements. As far as these elements go it is clear that the superdome did not fit any of them: at best it was a place to survive the storm.
The only level that makes sense to ensure that this level of response is provided for relatively rare and distant events is the federal government. This is why FEMA in the first place, but even there the focus has (historically) been too much on {aftermath handling}.
Essentially you need to know three things to make a competent decision about how much Federal help you need:
(a) You need to know how strong the hurricane will be.
(b) You need to know where that hurricane will make lanfall.
(c) You need to know the area exposed to certain wind velocities.
30 miles can make all the difference in the world.
This is a typical reactive response: we can't do anything until it happens. The fallacy here is that we know that hurricanes happen a lot, some are worse than others, and that when the bad ones come any wait is too late.
A proactive response is that we will need to have evacuation centers all along the hurricane coast designed to withstand the storms, be easy to get to and that can be staffed ahead of time with adequate well trained support personnel and equipment. An evacuation plan with no-where to go is useless (and why American "evacuations" are usually stop and go highways, while Cuban or Chinese ones end up working?).
Some could be in the city: combine the superdome with a hospital facility and foodstores etcetera (such as were provided in those atomic bomb shelters we grew up with in the 60's), and ensure elevated road access for emergency use\need. Look at tornado shelters in tornado alley, and then think {supersizeit}.
Some could be outside the city: there are a lot of closed military bases and a lot more being closed -- in many cases they have perfectly adequate landing strips for big planes -- what better use than a moth-balled-ready-to-go evacuation center? These would also provide extra bases for national guard stations and that could provide the personnel.
Here are the 11 PM Aug 27 strike probabilities for Hurricane Katrina:
There is a 17% chance it would hit New Orleans.
This is when public announcements remind people of the plan, the places to go, how to get there, what they should take and when they should go. Leave the outbound lanes to the cars and trucks, and switch the inbound lanes over to exclusive bus\ambulance use to shuttle people that cannot drive.
It's not rocket science to {assemble\develop\coordinate} an integrated plan, but it's not something a city can do alone. This is what DHS should have done, and what they absolutely failed to even consider doing.
Enjoy.
This message has been edited by RAZD, 09*15*2005 08:22 PM

we are limited in our ability to understand
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RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 243 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 2:32 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 246 by Chiroptera, posted 09-15-2005 8:18 PM RAZD has replied
 Message 247 by jar, posted 09-15-2005 8:19 PM RAZD has replied
 Message 252 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 11:15 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 248 of 297 (243934)
09-15-2005 8:20 PM
Reply to: Message 246 by Chiroptera
09-15-2005 8:18 PM


Re: Oops
in reasonable comfort. thanks.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 246 by Chiroptera, posted 09-15-2005 8:18 PM Chiroptera has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 249 of 297 (243935)
09-15-2005 8:20 PM
Reply to: Message 247 by jar
09-15-2005 8:19 PM


Re: Point 3.
even more telling then.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 247 by jar, posted 09-15-2005 8:19 PM jar has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 259 of 297 (244227)
09-16-2005 6:45 PM
Reply to: Message 252 by gene90
09-15-2005 11:15 PM


Re: Some points ...
Right. That's one of the reasons there should be a bipartison investigation: Bush has too much of a stake in this since he pushed for the unification.
I think that covers (2) also.
(3) There is nothing here I disagree with, really we need more information.
(4) What legal power does the DHS have to force New Orleans to make a plan, and then stand by it in an emergency?
(5a) There is nothing I can possibly say to justify these two appointments.
(5b) Yes, primary authority rests with the lowest level of government.
So we are agreed up to (5b) ...
In accordance with FEMA’s primary authorizing legislation, the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, FEMA is first and foremost a coordinating agency.
But this is trumped by the DHS legislation and the reassignment of FEMA under DHS.
For those events that rise to the level of an Incident of National Significance, the Department of Homeland Security provides operational and/or resource coordination for Federal support to on-scene incident command structures.
Looks like they don't take their own mission statement at face value - like I said, pretty words don't accomplish anything if they aren't backed up by action.
This is straight conservative small government handbook thinking, and in the case of Katrina and the whole gulf coast this was shown to be ... unforgivable at best, criminally negligent at worst (sorry if I don't think "unnacceptable" is even a start at an acceptable response -- people rescued later than necessary is unacceptable, people dying as a result is abominable).
Again, I'm not really interested in rehashing this over and over again.
Then stop focusing on the historical foundation of FEMA and look at the new foundation of DHS.
(5c) I like the idea of requiring FEMA to be more proactive in the rare catastrophes. I also like the idea of using Federal resources like bases in an integrated, multistate evacuation plan. I believe it was Jesse Jackson that suggested within a few days of the storm and I still think it's viable. There are other good suggestions as well.
Thanks, I first heard of the base idea from U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters (before Jackson was involved? not sure).
If the United States wants to continue to persist for another 200 years then people think need to think about major catastrophes (bigger than this one), continuity of gov't, etc. There are bigger problems out there than hurricanes, specifically nuclear war, the probability of which I would say gets closer to one as the decades pass by.
Fine, but first lets build the answers to the known problems, and look at ways to include others (we had atomic bomb shelters, I know of one that is less than 5 miles from here ...)
(5d) We're not going to settle State's rights issues or the ideal size of the Federal government, so I will simply agree to disagree.
heh. I had accepted that as inevitable at the start ...

we are limited in our ability to understand
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RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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This message is a reply to:
 Message 252 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 11:15 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 260 by gene90, posted 09-16-2005 7:20 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 261 of 297 (244245)
09-16-2005 8:46 PM
Reply to: Message 260 by gene90
09-16-2005 7:20 PM


Re: Some more points ...
In other words, you are exploiting it to make a political statement about the ideal size and powers of the Federal government?
LOL. Nope, just pointing out that things have changed with the creation of the DHS (and certainly not necessarily for the better). The DHS was given a task and fumbled.
quote:
Looks like they don't take their own mission statement at face value - like I said, pretty words don't accomplish anything if they aren't backed up by action.
Unless lead=coordinate.
Again, the mission statement reads:
FROM: Department Of Homeland Security, The OFFICIAL Vision and Mission Statement, etc: The DHS Strategic Plan -- Securing Our Homeland (click)
Mission
We will lead the unified national effort to secure America. We will prevent and deter terrorist attacks and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to the nation. We will ensure safe and secure borders, welcome lawful immigrants and visitors, and promote the free-flow of commerce.
(GREEN and underline mine for emphasis, bold and italic in the original -- I have also bolded the first use of "lead" so you can see that it is the start of the mission statement.)
Clearly they did not lead (or get out of the way).
And you didn't answer my question.
Under what legal authority can DHS force New Orleans to have an acceptable evacuation plan, and stick to it?
Because it is a bogus question. Under what legal authority can any department of anything force any person to do anything?
What DHS has, and what Chertoff clearly had the authority to do, was contact Nagin and say "Nagin ol boy, we've identified a hurricane hitting New Orleans as the third highest priority national safety concern, and I've assigned Pete Highwater as your emergency coordinator. I would like to arrange a meeting between him and your emergency planning staff to go over your preparation and evacuation plan." Nagin replies (a) "we have no plan" (b) "we are working on a plan" or (c) "we have a plan in place that has already been tested" and Chertoff says "Great, Pete will be able to help you coordinate your {new\developing\current} plan with the nearby states and with our federal agency to ensure that the final result covers all of our (yours, the state's and the federal government's) concerns for the safety of the people" ... if Nagin refuses to set up the meetings, then keep asking and documenting the requests and responses. You can imagine the effectiveness of such documentation on a hearing into the failures we've seen.
Clearly they had a mandate to coordinate all levels of government and only a totally incompetent manager would think that this only applies after {the situation} has already occurred.
Was it stocked and ready? Have you visited it? Another problem is that nuclear shelters are usually put in the ground and not higher than the first story. If you're anticipating 30 feet of water...
Actually it is exhibited as an example of the cold war and is in the basement of an old factory that is becoming an upscale {business\condo} redevelopment for yuppie dink types.
But when the nation was under a nationwide threat the federal government set up a program that created these centers. Of course this is the same government (dems reps libs cons) that went to the moon and established the Peace Corps, so the ability is there to accomplish great things, what is missing {now} is the will and the inspiration that true leadership gives.
And please, while you are at, explain what you mean by "later than necessary", and how you know how long is "necessary".
There is a story in the news of an elderly woman who called on her phone Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday saying that the water was rising inside her house and she could not get out and to please send help. On Friday she drowned. They knew the location of the house. That is "later than necessary" with room to spare in my mind.
Neither ... can take primary responsibility for the safety of individuals who choose to live in a city below sea level and then, for whatever reason, do not leave.
Not for those who had means and opportunity. If you read my first post on Katrina you will see that position echoed. The concern is for those who do not have the means or who are lulled into a false sense of security by those that are supposed to provide the protection (you can go to the superdome ...)
(1) New Orleans would be a lot smaller to begin with (I might not have lived there because I've been expecting this disaster, if I did, I would get flood insurance and have a car to leave. If I couldn't afford those things, then I couldn't afford New Orleans).
Except we are also talking about people who cannot afford to leave the city they were born in.
(2) Fewer people would have remained in the city.
(3) There wouldn't be people still needing to be rescued because they would have walked to the Superdome or convention center had they not been able to get out.
You have greater faith in human nature than I do .
My experience is that many people will refuse to move until it is too late. We see this in NC with Ophelia sitting on top of the Outerbanks, an area of (geologically temporary) low sandy eroding islands with no high ground and access limited by old narrow bridges that would probably be taken out by any kind of storm surge.
... we have this partisan attempt to blame Bush for people that willingly chose to remain, not only in New Orleans but in unsafe housing projects.
But I don't blame bush for those that chose to remain and who had the means to evacuate. I do hold his DHS responsible for failing to plan for the evacuation of those who want to leave and can't, and for failing to have any other plan.
Remember that the historical experience of Americans is that evacuation is haphazard, uncontrolled chaos that usually results in vehicles lined up for miles going no-where. Talk to anyone from the coast and you will hear the pros and cons of evacuation debated, and the biggest con is blocked roads and the greater vulnerability on the blocked roads.
The bridge over lake Pontrachain covered in bumper to bumper cars ...
I don't defend those who stayed, I condemn the only perceived alternatives being (1) stuck on the road or (2) stuck in the superdome ... or (3) stuck at home.
But since personal responsibility isn't PC these days,
Most of the people that I knew that refused to evacuate the coast were white middle class card carrying NRA members of the republican party (in part because most of the people I knew there were white middle class card carrying NRA members of the republican party). Stupid behavior is not limited to one party over the other. Ignorant behavior - and perceptions - can be changed with new information. We did, after all, go to the moon.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 260 by gene90, posted 09-16-2005 7:20 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 262 by gene90, posted 09-16-2005 9:22 PM RAZD has replied
 Message 278 by gene90, posted 09-20-2005 6:22 PM RAZD has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 263 of 297 (244369)
09-17-2005 11:59 AM
Reply to: Message 262 by gene90
09-16-2005 9:22 PM


Re: Some more points ...
You said that it's the because of a failure of the DHS if New Orleans wasn't prepared.
How do you suggest that DHS enforce it's "leadership" role?
I restate the question:
What can DHS do if New Orleans doesn't have an acceptable plan?
A mandate. Where is the legal authority?
You need a foulup for that.
Why didn't Nagin plan? Don't you hold him responsible for that?
For starters, DHS could proceed to make their own plan taking whatever NO had as a starting point, incorporating anything from the states in the area, and then presenting the result to the others for comments and considerations. If they are leaders they shouldn't have to wait for anyone. The legal authority is to lead, not to follow.
And actually, Nagin did have a plan. It was what everyone in NO had planned for the last several decades (and which was presumably "tested" in the 2000 exercise): have those that can evacuate to wherever they want to go, have those who want to stay remain behind, and have the superdome available for those who need refuge to survive the {night\day} of the storm, and then to have the feds come in and mop up.
Problem is, nobody said that it was a bad plan ... or that it would take 5 days for the feds to arrive in sufficient numbers (beyond the USCG SAR members) to pick up the pieces. Nobody coordinated the {bad plan} with the {coastal states plan} and the {same-old same-old FEMA federal plan} or the {new federally mandated but apparently non-existent national disaster plan}.
That still looks like a {DHS\Chertoff} failure no matter what other elements failed in the process, and the point is that there was a {DHS\Chertoff} failure in spite of this being a new system that was supposed to make things better.
You want to shelter people in a museum exhibit? ... You want to shelter people in a "museum"-type exhibit that is in a basement. And I presume this is in New Orleans? ... there is no evidence that the shelter system would have functioned well enough ... also inspired by a clear threat of nuclear annihilation that occasonally bordered on hysteria
heh
This is an Appeal to Emotion when I asked for a logical argument.
What I was using the atomic bomb shelters for, was an example of planning on a national level for a foreseen disaster, and mobilizing the population, some to make individual shelters (again, like tornado shelters?). This shows that this kind of planning and implementation is feasible. Whether it is adequate is another matter, but compared to what we saw, there is a lot of room for improvement before we even get to adequate eh?
I am not asking if they got there too late to rescue everyone.
Then we disagree. To me if one (1) life could have been saved by a slightly quicker response then that is sufficient evidence of it taking an "unreasonably long" time to rescue them, given the massive delays that were observed.
you are committing the logical fallacy of Begging the Question.
People died in the five days after the hurricane and before the federal troops moved in. The girl raped and throat slit in the superdome, the nursing home patients (where the owners are now being charged with homicide by negligence). What do you need, evidence of help bypassing people who then died? Like the elderly and wheelchair bound who died of dehydration and malnutrition waiting to be picked up while buses passed them (because they were in the "projects" and not the hotels)? I have to wonder if you were looking at a different disaster than what I saw.
Why was there {non-existent\inadequate} security within the superdome when that was where all the people were supposed to go? Why no {medical\first-responder} units? Put them there before the storm and you know they will be there when they are needed eh?
There was no coordination of this {bad plan of refuge} with state or federal resources ... and certainly no pre-arranged coordinated {city\state\federal} plan to move the people out of the dome after the storm had passed or to provide food and medical care while they were there.
At one point in my life I chose to stay in a burning building, holding an emergency fire hose on a part of the fire that I could reach until the professionals arrived, knowing that there were many elderly in the other apartments. I like to believe that what I did helped mitigate the fire and allowed the professionals to contain it to the point where there was only property damage and no loss in life, but I have no delusions that without their timely arrival that my effort would have been wasted.
Here in America we operate on the basic assumption that we have a complete system of government services set up so that the apropriate level of {whatever is needed} is available and waiting to jump into action when needed.
Citizens of Mexico can illegally cross the US border with virtually no resources and relocate essentially anywhere in the Lower 48.
{Mexican\CAmericans\SAmericans} are drawn to the US with misconceptions of what it is like and what they will be {allowed\able} to {do\accomplish}. Those living in the projects do not have these misconceptions, rather they have a different set that says no matter what they {do\accomplish} that things will not change. It's a difference in perceptions, not in the reality of the situation. And, if things don't change then why move away from family and familiarity?
Hah! I can picture that--though I still hate to think that they were endangered ...
What is the most controlling (IMHO) part of human behavior on things like this is the narcissistic belief that it won't happen to them, they won't be the ones to die, the storm will pass to the side, they've lived through it before as have their parents and grandparents, etc. This holds for rich, poor and middle, educated and ignorant.
Look at all the people sitting on top of the San Andreas Fault. It is not a matter of perceiving the danger, but the personal level of the danger.
I don't think I could afford to live in New Orleans. And even if I did, I would have been darn sure to check a topo map before finding digs.
When I liven in Indiana we had opportunity to buy shorefront property on several small river connected lakes, and we chose one where there was about 15ft elevation between the lake and the house because all the others were on floodplain (river and lake). While we lived there they had a "100 year" flood that cause this {river\lake} system to rise 10 feet and flooded all the other houses we looked at (among others), but not ours.
We don't disagree on our personal choices. The question is whether other people have the same {information\perceptions\ability} to reach the same conclusions, and whether they are lulled into a false sense of security by government {behavior\inaction}. The question is whether our government can and should help or remain passive, neutral, waiting to react.
If you say that the government (preferably with help from the States) should improve education, then I'm with you on it. Same thing with the shelter program you were talking about.
Then we have at least some common ground.
yep.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 262 by gene90, posted 09-16-2005 9:22 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 264 by gene90, posted 09-17-2005 10:32 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 266 of 297 (244676)
09-18-2005 6:08 PM
Reply to: Message 264 by gene90
09-17-2005 10:32 PM


Re: Some more points ...
How do they enforce it?
As I understand it, as soon as the president declares a national disaster that DHS can take over. That was Aug 29 in this case, but there is no reason you could not contact the governors before and organize this a day earlier when you have a very good idea {when\where} the storm will hit. Beyond that, (here we'll assume that DHS actually did it's job) you have a plan for pre-emptive manning specific evacuation centers across the gulf states...
On August 26 you have to be pretty sure when the storm is going to land, even if the exact location and strength is indeterminate: you move people into the evacuation centers to man them across the whole projected storm region (with a good plan most people would already be {near\available}, such as National Guard Units and First Responders, and special units, like amphibious craft, around centers of special concern, like NO), taking the 27th and 28th to finish the job and to refine the center of {SAR\aid\relief\resources\etc} necessary. You do this by contacting the governors and telling them you are staffing the centers in accordance with the plan.
If need be, you have the president declare the centers "national disaster sites" so you have control, but I would be really surprised if a single official objected to moving in aid, supplies and resources early.
You put on national emergency announcements on TV and radio stating that the centers are being activated and manned, ready for the storm in advance, ready to receive evacuees, with food, shelter and medical attention already available for those who come early. These get augmented with the official declaration of disaster with directions on where to go and what to take for those who are stragglers.
You put on your nikes, drink your gatorade, and just do it because it's in you.
Why isn't Nagin following the Federal line, if the Feds are his boss? I'm curious about how much authority they have in this situation.
The Feds aren't his boss, the people are, just as the people are the Feds boss. We give each authority to do different things.
It seems to me that Nagin is saying "we need business to move back in so that the economy can get back on track as soon as possible and help with the recovery" (supply side economics?) and the Feds are saying "it may not be safe on the streets and with the (lack of) sanitary conditions" but that both are leaving it up to individual decisions.
Certainly the Feds through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, part of the Department of Health and Human Services, or HHS), has the authority to close places that are a health hazard, and the National Guard (under declared martial law?) has the authority to enforce curfews and restrictions from dangerous areas.
This is, after all, part of what a really coordinated multi-level plan would address.
The reason you have disparity is because there was no coordinated plan before the disaster. That is clearly not Nagins fault as he is only resposible for NO, it must be Texas and Bush DHS (again).
:Nods: at recognition of people doing their job.
Shakes head at "leaders" waiting until disaster strikes before they begin to do their job.
Okay, but if you were in charge of FEMA (or DHS if you prefer) could you have assured us that you would have gotten everyone out? How can you assure this is even possible?
Yes, one life lost is too many, and I can say that about a lot of things. But I think the question should be whether it is reasonable to expect that no life will be lost.
I didn't say that. I said if one was lost due to avoidable delay then it is "unreasonably long" ... I accept that some deaths will occur in disasters, the job is to minimize them.
Around here I know where the floodplains are, and some of them are getting townhouses built on them. Should've stayed a golf course.
I've seen that. I've also seen floodplain signs taken down regularly by the {?locals?developers?realestate?}. Building townhouses themselves is not bad (and can be better than a bunch of old cottages) IFF the living levels are all above flood level and there are provisions (connected elevated walkways) to get in (fire & ambulance) and out (evacuate), they are built to withstand the floods, and they open up the floodplain into more of a park setting open space until needed. I know of one such development that had 1/2 sunken basement apartments in the floodplain .
Heck, a lot of housing in NO could have had all living areas raised above floodplain, certainly there is no excuse for the hotels and hospitals and businesses and the like not to have been "hardened" for the "big one" just like they are in california earthquake zones.
Okay, but if you were in charge of ...
If I were involved in planning for the future of NO the one fact I would start from is that the land is continuously sinking (and has been for ... almost ever), and this leads to three solutions:
(1) abandon New Orleans and let nature take it's course.
(2) fill in New Orleans and jack everything up as time passes so that it stays above sea level (and instead of levee building you have ongoing projects to raise the various low levels).(*)
(3) you convert New Orleans, raise the buildings on islands of filled foundations, create elevated passageways for {pedestrians\vehicles} (or eliminate personal vehicles and go to rapid transit systems and emegency vehicles), and turn the roadways into canals, a new venice.
My preference would be for (3), but that's the romantic "ol' soul in me oh" .
Of course any rebuilding should also include specific planned emergency evacuation centers ... (those fully planned within the city limits eh?)
(*) {abe} Note that ski mountains are currently being made from waste trucked out of towns. There should be ways to seperate noxious trash from stabilized(able) solid material and use this in an ongoing program. The highest point in Rhode Island (for all you "high-pointers" out there) is now a landfill site - it has passed all the natural hills. {/abe}
This message has been edited by RAZD, 09*18*2005 06:16 PM

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 264 by gene90, posted 09-17-2005 10:32 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 269 by gene90, posted 09-18-2005 11:56 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 275 of 297 (245036)
09-19-2005 10:03 PM
Reply to: Message 273 by gene90
09-19-2005 2:59 PM


Rita
you have no idea how much heartburn this storm is causing now, having just relocated a project from NO to galveston and getting some additional services from key west ...
Projected path (click)
I also noted that Nagin pulled back from encouraging residents to return to NO, saying that another storm with only a 3 ft surge or 9" rain would reflood the city.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 273 by gene90, posted 09-19-2005 2:59 PM gene90 has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 276 of 297 (245040)
09-19-2005 10:23 PM
Reply to: Message 269 by gene90
09-18-2005 11:56 PM


Re: Some more points ...
Okay, but right now you have the mayor of New Orleans and the current head of the Federal relief effort contradicting each other. See my previous post.
se my previous post. heh, the difference a little {time\planning} will make eh? We could also talk about the PLAN to rehabilitate NO.
Right, but normally building codes are the province of local governments.
True, but you can have state or federal restrictions on minimum provisions in certain high-risk areas.
On the gulf coast of MS I believe there is a state regulation on the minimum level for living quarters in new construction. It will be interesting to see what Trent Lotts new house will look like.
Okay, but if you were in charge of FEMA or DHS on last August 27th...how quickly should FEMA have gotten there, with how many people, and how do we know the figures are reasonable?
They should have been in manned evacuation centers before the storm hit in sufficient numbers to provide the medical, food, security and shelter requirements. Proper planning gives you the breakdown on people numbers and talents and when each goes where. Evaluation of the planning process tells you whether it is a {feasible\reasonable} plan.
This is already done.
I know, but americans are reluctant to really put an effort into it at the personal level, rather than pay someone to sort it out later at much higher cost.
The rubbish landfill is a lot easier to license. Basically you're talking about moving this rubbish to build on. Subsidence/compaction will likely cause some foundation damage but it's a way that cities have historically dealt with flooding and added real-estate to waterlines.
If the subsidence\compaction is all within the foundation walls and the rubbish is used to keep those walls from collapsing inward as they end up deep underground over time, this should not be a problem. Each building would need to be (designed\built) with a means to raise it on the current foundation and put in another level (of bricks or whatever) with the void filled by the rubbish (oh what fun future archaeologists would have).
The other advantage of the venicing of NO is that you would allow the natural flooding of the delta to replenish the soil in the canals.
How much would this cost? You might want to look at, I think, message 255 ...
If you've done your homework, and planned for the centers to be there for "the big one" knowing there will be many duds in between, and knowing that the actual full resources will only be used on "the big one" then the only cost associated with a dud is some man-ours and associated supplies that would also be incurred for any {practice\simulation\test} runs. This adds to the confidence level of the staff and of the people in the area.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 269 by gene90, posted 09-18-2005 11:56 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 277 by gene90, posted 09-20-2005 12:42 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 279 of 297 (245373)
09-20-2005 9:56 PM
Reply to: Message 277 by gene90
09-20-2005 12:42 PM


Re: Some more points ...
msg 277 writes:
Nagin asserting the fact that he is Mayor Nagin and the head of the Federal relief effort ... is overstepping his authority.
And I heard a guy from the state talking about his plans for rebuilding NO ...
All this shows is a complete lack of coordination between the different levels of government, brought about by a complete lack of coordination before the crisis, and during the crisis, the result of a complete lack of coordinated multilevel comprehensive planning to deal with the issue in spite of plentiful knowledge and multiple warnings of the results.
DHS blew it, and now everyone is trying to fill the void of planning and all you get is a chattering of voices (yours and mine ... and Cindy Sheehans included).
Meanwhile Rita shows that no lesson was learned? We'll wait to see what the difference is. I don't expect there to suddenly have been a plan now (too little time) but at least some concept of pre-emptive organisation would be a good start.
I think FEMA/DHS should change the wording of their mission statement.
To something that mirrors action, like "we will follow the path of destruction of whatever comes out way, award no bid contracts to our wealthy and connected friends and leave the poor and the sick out in the cold" ... ?
Let's open another thread to discuss the {actual\proper} role of DHS ... that's another whole can of worms (including if there should even be one).
I hadn't heard about Federal but will take your word for it.
I didn't say there were any, just that you could have them. All you need to do is say that in order for {this specific area} to be fully covered for FEMA relief, these minimum standards need to be included in all new construction for {type(s) of natural disaster applcable to this specific area}. Such as not allowing mobile homes in tornado alley.
I would point out that by the 28th they were in the evacuation centers in enough numbers to provide "food, shelter, security" requirements. The conditions did not deteriorate until later.
Medical teams, security forces, canteen personnel, accomodation assistants? or just evacuees piled on top of each other?
You need to have infrastructure not just empty space and that requires manning. And it has to be enough in advance to be there when the first evacuees show up.
send this many personnel into New Orleans every time there's a 20% chance of it being hit by a category 3 hurricane?
Are you going to create a proportional mobilization for the whole coast under hurricane warnings for a storm 48 hours away?
You know that the cat 3 hurricane is going to hit somewhere, you have a good idea of the center by 48 hrs before, and can refine it in the next 24 ... and yes it would be a pro-active mobilization.
If the storm duds out, you had a training exercise in real-time.
The problem with that is that it takes precious time to move in "actual full resources" from somewhere else. That's really the point of the discussion.
What about stationing the "actual full resources" at the evacuation {centers\bases} so there is no major mobilization required. These could also serve as other uses during "peaceful" times ... such as {schools\stadiums}, {universities\hospitals}, {airports\national guard bases}, {convention centers\hotels} etc etc. The closer they are to the people who need them the easier they will be to {find\use\get to}, and there should be ways to build secure centers in these areas based on all the known dangers that have been experienced or that can be reasonably projected. It comes down to having a plan.
You can't practicably send in the kind of resources you need to answer a disaster like this every time a major hurricane is in the Gulf days before landfall.
I think we can pretty well predict that Rita will cause some damage where it lands. I notice that Galveston is already being asked to evacuate (there's another outer island system made of drifting sand and that is geologically temporary in the face of storms).
There is (or used to be) a place in the gulf of mexico where you can sail up to a pipe sticking out of the water that is gushing fresh water. It used to be a hotel on an outer island (with an artesian well ... all that's left is the pipe from the well).
If you mobilized those resources to Houston now they would be closer to where the storm actually hits, and can move in on the final location as the center moves towards land ...
... or we can wait to see what happens and then send people with no plan of coordinated action.
msg 278 writes:
I am just going to point out that this story has been debunked.
That sounds like a different version of the story, but is does have some of the elements of the proverbial urban myth, I'll agree. That does not, however, mean that no one died due to negligent delay in providing {resources\rescue\aid}, in fact we have at least one evidence of massive neglect, but it's just easier to lay the blame on the owners of the home than anyone else eh?
Further, the previous N.O. plan required them to have contracts with busing companies to be able to do so.
And everybody else washes their hands of the affair. Rather than include this problem in the overall plan we'll make the little guy responsible for making his own arrangements regardless of the fact that these contracts would be pre-empted by authorities at the drop of a hat.
The problem with evacuating the elderly is that you commonly have some of them die in transport. So if you get an Ivan or a Lili that doesn't hit New Orleans, it's pointless.
Of course if you had a pro-active plan you wouldn't have these people in harms way where they would need to be moved. The {hospitals\nursing homes\care centers} that are in the city would be built to take the hurricane, the flooding and the aftermath, or they would be located outside the city limits in a more secure area.
If you planned ahead.
Donna Brazile writes:
...I could not have been prouder of the president and the plan he outlined to empower those who lost everything and to rebuild the Gulf Coast...
Excuse my skepticism, but I will wait to see the actual results and not be lulled by pretty words. I've yet to be "dissappointed" in my expectations from this administration.
The closest so far was when the pres said that he accepted responsibility for the fed mishandling. But, again, all I have so far is that statement. So far there has been no firing of incompetent political sycophants (other than the engineered resignation of brownie -- and there are a lot more in the system). Of course this take the ability to recognize incompetence ....

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 277 by gene90, posted 09-20-2005 12:42 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 280 by gene90, posted 09-21-2005 8:52 PM RAZD has replied
 Message 284 by gene90, posted 09-21-2005 10:07 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 281 of 297 (245591)
09-21-2005 9:04 PM
Reply to: Message 280 by gene90
09-21-2005 8:52 PM


Re: Some more points ...
Didn't say it couldn't be done, just that there was no plan to do it in NO.
But
Why does that last bus look empty?
Are those busses evacuating people or are they just being moved out of harms way?

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 280 by gene90, posted 09-21-2005 8:52 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 282 by gene90, posted 09-21-2005 9:18 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 283 of 297 (245597)
09-21-2005 9:22 PM
Reply to: Message 282 by gene90
09-21-2005 9:18 PM


Re: Some more points ...
I see convergence too.
I also think people learned (1) about hurricane damage and (2) how much to trust the {various levels of} government response:
Netscape \CNN News -- Rita Swirls Into 165-Mph Monster in Gulf
About 80 buses began leaving Galveston at midmorning, bound for shelters 100 miles north in Huntsville. Dozens of people lined up, carrying pillows, bags and coolers, to board one of several yellow school buses in the city of 58,000.
``The real lesson (from Katrina) that I think the citizens learned is that the people in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi did not leave in time,'' said Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas. ``We've always asked people to leave earlier, but because of Katrina, they are now listening to us and they're leaving.''
Rita, based on its current internal pressure, would be the most intense hurricane ever to strike Texas, stronger even than an unnamed storm that hit Indianola in 1886. Accurate wind speed measurements are not available that far back.
The three Category 5 hurricanes to hit the U.S. mainland are the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane, Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992.
Never before has the mainland been hit by two storms of Category 4 or higher in the same year, according to government forecasters.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 282 by gene90, posted 09-21-2005 9:18 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 285 by gene90, posted 09-21-2005 10:07 PM RAZD has not replied

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