I have. It's a good thread. My comment was made ina tounge and cheek manner
Whoops, sorry. Apparently I've lost my humor on this topic recently, as I've seen too many people who mean it.
I understand it weather conditions are getting more severe as a result of climate change. Weather or not these particular hurricanes are a result, probably not.
Well it is clear that global temps are increasing, and sea temps as well, which is more than likely effecting weather to some degree. The study RAZD provided a link to was not clear enough to show much. Yes, storm intensity had increased in general, but number of storms in total, and intensity of the largest storms had not changed.
In any event, the smallest changes have specifically been within the area of the gulf, where both the latest storms have been. There really doesn't seem to be much connection at all... if any.
You article was interesting, and typical of what I have been seeing in media and what I find dismaying. It acts all positive, and even has a quote from Landsea saying...
"This is the first article that has a smoking gun between global warming and hurricane activity," he told New Scientist.
Only to put the more important disclaimer separate from this and near the end of the article which reads...
But Landsea says the unadjusted figures show no overall trend, raising doubts over whether Emanuel's model is making the right corrections. Although winds from that period looked too low in the past, Landsea says that wind estimates may actually have been too low in the 1970s through to the early 1990s.
Neither study considered changes in rainfall, which causes flooding that has been responsible for many deaths and damage in recent storms.
A leading British scientist said on Friday the growing ferocity of hurricanes hitting the United States was very probably caused by global warming and criticized what he termed U.S. "climate loonies" over the issue.
Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution which advises the government, made what the Independent newspaper said was a thinly disguised attack on the stance of U.S. President George W. Bush's administration.
"The increased intensity of these kinds of extreme storms is very likely to be due to global warming," Lawton told the newspaper in an interview.
"If this makes the climate loonies in the States realize we've got a problem, some good will come out of a truly awful situation," said Lawton.
Ah yes, name calling and prosyletizing. I'm sure everyone would feel different about this guy and what he said, if you changed his title to archbishop and his statement to "heathen loonies".
After fronting all of this guys message, and detailing studies connecting temps to storms in general, the real facts regarding Katrina and Rita come at the end of the article...
Other leading scientists agree the Atlantic Basin and Gulf Coast regions are being battered by a severe hurricane phase that could persist for another 20 years or more. But they believe that a natural environmental cycle is responsible rather than any human-induced change, AP says.
This method of reporting is pure Fox, but I am seeing it gaining popularity everywhere. Lead with the hype, then return to sanity later as the "other side" is given a chance to voice their opinions, as if they are equal and debatable.
Oh and one other thing...
"Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun," he said.
I am getting sick and tired of all this smoking gun crap. If someone has the power to ban that phrase, please do so. Discussions of data would be better without it.
holmes "...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)
Why, nothing at all, I imagine. Or else they'll blame the refugees, like last time.
I get newsletters from at least one of those types of groups. Since at least one dike in New Orleans is already overflowing again, they're not having to change much, but the shift is not to the refugees (someone's blaming the refugees?). They're simply calling it a judgment on the US going all the way back to 9/11.
Re: Nothing to worry about. Don't blow it out of proportion.
Good for you, at least! If I lived near the coast, I would have a backup place to stay somewhere else in the U.S. if I could afford it (or if my in-laws would have me! :) ) They are dramatizing this hurricane quite a bit, but I don't know how the government is gonna pay for five-ten more hurricane years even half this bad!
Looks like this one is gonna stall out and dump a load of rain!
I've noticed, dammit!"I think younger workers — first of all, younger workers have been promised benefits the government — promises that have been promised, benefits that we can't keep. That's just the way it is."— George W. Bush, May 4, 2005
quote:and of course if it swings a little wide you get it full bore?
Well, we sure got a hell of a lot of rain and storms. The wind wasn't as strong as what we got from Katrina. I think we in Vicksburg have been close enough to both of these recent blows to observe the difference of being on the east vs west sides, even though the difference was distorted by proximity.
With Katrina we were on the west side of a fairly nearby hurricane. We had almost a full day of near-hurricane-force winds which caused lots of damage, but relatively little rain. With Rita, we were on the east side of a more distant storm. Although the winds weren't nearly as violent, the rain was hard and non-stop for hours.
The apartment I live in began to flood early today. A few gallons of water soaked my living room carpet in one corner. Apparently it leaked down from a flower bed directly above (this is a basement apartment). I've spent quite a bit of time today working with a wet-vac, but no damage was done. Believe me, though, it's a little startling to wake up to wet carpet while an intense thunderstorm is raging outside.
I suppose I shouldn't be too concerned about this. Perhaps some more soil needs to be packed into that flower bed, but the rain today came from a direction directly opposite of usual. It was nonstop for so long that I don't really think it's likely that the apartment will flood again, or that it would be any worse than this if it did.
"I think younger workers — first of all, younger workers have been promised benefits the government — promises that have been promised, benefits that we can't keep. That's just the way it is."— George W. Bush, May 4, 2005
I live in Columbia, MO. Right there in the center of the state. I'm from Minnesota so I know jack about hurricaines and tropical storms.
How concerned should I be that the edge of this thing is barreling down right for where I live? I had heard that it had lost energy really fast, but what am I looking at this week? Cloudy days and rain? Or should I be boarding up windows or something? Nobody else is, I guess.