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Author Topic:   The social and polical importance of tropical weather
berberry
Inactive Member


Message 1 of 25 (252272)
10-16-2005 8:34 PM


Forecasters seem fairly certain that what is now Tropical Depression 24 moving north from the doldrums in the Caribbean will become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Wilma. Take a look at the forecast track from Weather Underground:

The weekend TV meteorologists all seem to be worried that this will become yet another major hurricane threat for the Gulf Coast. Can the US sustain another cat 4 or 5 hit?

I don't want to discuss the theology of God's wrath in this thread except to observe or debate the impact that such theology has on society. There are more appropriate forums available for such a topic.

I think most all of us now believe the forecasters when they say we're in a period of dramatically heightened hurricane activity. How many times can our Atlantic and Gulf Coasts sustain such horrendous storms over the next 20 years or so before our economy sinks?

How long before one of these things makes its way up to New England? What would be the economic impact of a repeat of 1938's Long Island Express hurricane, a cat 3?

Two years ago when forecasters first mentioned (to my knowledge, anyway) the heightened danger in the tropics I don't think anyone imagined just how terrible it would be. I'm beginning to think that the greatest danger to us and our way of life here in America is not from other nations or from terrorists - in other words, not from men - but rather from tropical weather systems.


Replies to this message:
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 Message 4 by Silent H, posted 10-17-2005 5:59 AM berberry has responded
 Message 8 by RAZD, posted 10-17-2005 6:08 PM berberry has responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19815
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 2 of 25 (252278)
10-16-2005 8:44 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by berberry
10-16-2005 8:34 PM


Looks like no time to be stuck outside of mobile with the memphis blues again, eh?


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by berberry, posted 10-16-2005 8:34 PM berberry has not yet responded

  
Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5381
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 7.9


Message 3 of 25 (252291)
10-16-2005 10:18 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by berberry
10-16-2005 8:34 PM


Crap. I just got back from moving my daughter's belongings to a dry, non-moldy address in New Orleans, from her previous place which now has thousands of rosettes of Aspergillium niger up to above the light switches on the downstairs walls.

No. We can't stand another.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by berberry, posted 10-16-2005 8:34 PM berberry has not yet responded

    
Silent H
Member (Idle past 3927 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 4 of 25 (252332)
10-17-2005 5:59 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by berberry
10-16-2005 8:34 PM


I think most all of us now believe the forecasters when they say we're in a period of dramatically heightened hurricane activity. How many times can our Atlantic and Gulf Coasts sustain such horrendous storms over the next 20 years or so before our economy sinks?

There are two points about the above which should be of relevant concern. The first is that they do suggest that the current period of excessive storms will likely last another 20 years so this is a real question. And second, that even when that ebbs the current situation is more the norm than the relative quieter storms we had before this period began.

In other words it may be getting worse before it gets better, and when it gets better it may not be anywhere as nice as it has been when we were all rapidly developing into those areas.

I'm beginning to think that the greatest danger to us and our way of life here in America is not from other nations or from terrorists - in other words, not from men - but rather from tropical weather systems.

I just don't think this is true. If we do not adjust how people live (physical structures and locations) in these areas, then it will be costly, but I don't think anything will actually break our bank (at least not anymore than the wars we are fighting). Natural disasters strike every nation, and some more strongly and more repeatedly than others.

The fact that mankind and nations have moved on thrived, means mankind is likely to continue to move on and thrive. The nature of our "lifestyle" will be dictated by those who move on. A storm can't threaten how we choose to live socially in between storms, unless we are locked in a very small geographical location.

Once again, I am in a nation where 1/3 is underwater technically, and even more during storm surges. Technology kept this nation alive and well... until rightists entered power and drastically changed the course of this nation reversing decades to centuries of its "culture".


holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)
This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by berberry, posted 10-16-2005 8:34 PM berberry has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 9:22 AM Silent H has responded

    
berberry
Inactive Member


Message 5 of 25 (252359)
10-17-2005 9:22 AM
Reply to: Message 4 by Silent H
10-17-2005 5:59 AM


holmes writes me:

quote:
quote:
I'm beginning to think that the greatest danger to us and our way of life here in America is not from other nations or from terrorists - in other words, not from men - but rather from tropical weather systems.

I just don't think this is true. If we do not adjust how people live (physical structures and locations) in these areas, then it will be costly, but I don't think anything will actually break our bank (at least not anymore than the wars we are fighting). Natural disasters strike every nation, and some more strongly and more repeatedly than others.

The fact that mankind and nations have moved on thrived, means mankind is likely to continue to move on and thrive.


I think the danger can be overstated and I certainly don't have any visions of a tropical apocalypse, but - for one thing - I wasn't talking about mankind, I was talking about the US. For another, I'm only talking about wrecking the economy, not destroying it. Sorry if I wasn't clear on those points.

Consider how many cat 4 and 5 storms have hit us in just the past two years. Consider how each and every one of them somehow manages to find its way to several of our most crucial oil rigs. Consider how the government response is typically to grant new tax breaks to the oil companies, in spite of the fact that big oil continues to enjoy high profits.

Considering all of this in light of the obvious problems of continuous reconstruction of coastal metropolitain areas (likely to become an industry of its own, and thus a failed industry once the pace of storms slows), it seems to me that such storms could definitely help tip us into a recession. Once we are in a recession, a continuing series of major hurricanes striking oil rigs and populated areas might be enough to keep us there if not drive us into an outright depression. Personally, I doubt a depression is likely but it certainly seems possible.

Remember, this will all be happening against a likely backdrop of strong growth in the EU and Asian economies. Our losses will be their gains, especially since we're borrowing so much money to rebuild, fight unnecessary wars and give tax cuts to our wealthiest citizens. I think the US is certainly in danger of losing its position as the world's economic leader, to be replaced either by Europe, China or Japan. That would do more harm to us and our way of life for the long term than another one or two 9/11s, I think.


"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by Silent H, posted 10-17-2005 5:59 AM Silent H has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by Coragyps, posted 10-17-2005 9:53 AM berberry has not yet responded
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Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5381
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 7.9


Message 6 of 25 (252363)
10-17-2005 9:53 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by berberry
10-17-2005 9:22 AM


Considering all of this in light of the obvious problems of continuous reconstruction of coastal metropolitain areas (likely to become an industry of its own,

I was told that the laborers tacking blue tarps over damaged roofs in New Orleans - and there are a very large number of them - are being paid $700 per day. Whether FEMA money or insurance company money, that'll come out of your and my pockets sooner or later. The mildest economic consequence that sort of wage could have would be inflation in the price of a beer - Abita Turbodog could go to $10!!! - but, like you say, it'll probably be more widespread than that.

This part of Texas makes a lot of sheetrock. We'll have a boom in that business trying to get all the walls in NOLA replaced, but then what? Hope for another Class 4 to keep all those employees on the payroll? Or lay them off when the weather won't cooperate? :(


This message is a reply to:
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Silent H
Member (Idle past 3927 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 7 of 25 (252375)
10-17-2005 11:31 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by berberry
10-17-2005 9:22 AM


I wasn't talking about mankind, I was talking about the US. For another, I'm only talking about wrecking the economy, not destroying it. Sorry if I wasn't clear on those points.

I understood you meant the US, but was bringing in the fact that if it can't destroy smaller nations it likely won't destroy the US. I see no difference between "wrecking" and "destroying" the economy.

This...

Consider how the government response is typically to grant new tax breaks to the oil companies, in spite of the fact that big oil continues to enjoy high profits.

and this...

Remember, this will all be happening against a likely backdrop of strong growth in the EU and Asian economies. Our losses will be their gains, especially since we're borrowing so much money to rebuild, fight unnecessary wars and give tax cuts to our wealthiest citizens.

...are the real problems. They are manmade.

You are right that natural disasters will compound these issues to make them worse. But I'm of the opinion that that fact doesn't make the natural disasters the cause of our worries, nor should they be the focus of our (economic) concerns.

This message has been edited by holmes, 10-17-2005 11:31 AM


holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)
This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 9:22 AM berberry has responded

Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member
Posts: 19815
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 8 of 25 (252465)
10-17-2005 6:08 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by berberry
10-16-2005 8:34 PM


Yucatan first
Looks like it'll hit the yucatan first, as a cat 3, then maybe swing to FL. Likely to rebuild in the process.

Are we ready for Alpha? There's still 40-45 days to the season.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by berberry, posted 10-16-2005 8:34 PM berberry has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 7:18 PM RAZD has not yet responded
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berberry
Inactive Member


Message 9 of 25 (252485)
10-17-2005 7:11 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by Silent H
10-17-2005 11:31 AM


Sorry, holmes. Looks like I was misunderstanding you. You bring up a good point:

quote:
...are the real problems. They are manmade.

Well that's the rub, isn't it? Yes, the root problems are man-made, but I think even if we had been enjoying the best of the Clinton economy when this hurricane age started last year, another few years of increasing storm activity could still knock us into a recession.

As it is, I think there's only so many more storms we can take before all of us in the middle class will be suffering significantly.

I don't think a series of storms is going to destroy us, but I definitely think we're headed for a serious recession if we have another year like this one. If nothing else, the price of gas will rise to the point that many more millions of people will have effectively no discretionary income for some years.

Hence, I think the biggest single threat to our way of life at this precise moment is the weather.


"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.
This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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berberry
Inactive Member


Message 10 of 25 (252488)
10-17-2005 7:18 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by RAZD
10-17-2005 6:08 PM


Tropical Storm Wilma
RAZD writes:

quote:
Are we ready for Alpha? There's still 40-45 days to the season.

Yeah, and on MSNBC they mentioned that there are a couple tropical waves down in the doldrums right now that are expected to strengthen. It looks pretty certain that we will be into the Greek alphabet.

And they say next year might be worse.

Looks like Wilma might go toward Tampa. Anybody know much about the topographic situation there?


"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by RAZD, posted 10-17-2005 6:08 PM RAZD has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
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jar
Member
Posts: 30935
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 11 of 25 (252489)
10-17-2005 7:20 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by berberry
10-17-2005 7:18 PM


Re: Tropical Storm Wilma
Yeah, flat and low. Nice big bay as a funnel.


Aslan is not a Tame Lion
This message is a reply to:
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macaroniandcheese 
Suspended Member (Idle past 2035 days)
Posts: 4258
Joined: 05-24-2004


Message 12 of 25 (252503)
10-17-2005 7:55 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by RAZD
10-17-2005 6:08 PM


Re: Yucatan first
the really scary thing is that hurricane season is a myth. it's simply the period of the year in which cyclonig storms are most likely to form... it has nothing to do with reality (just like what is a bird and what is a reptile).

we've had hurricanes in january before.


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macaroniandcheese 
Suspended Member (Idle past 2035 days)
Posts: 4258
Joined: 05-24-2004


Message 13 of 25 (252505)
10-17-2005 7:57 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by jar
10-17-2005 7:20 PM


Re: Tropical Storm Wilma
yup. and lots of rich people re-establishing in low income (ie badly developed) areas just waiting to be smashed.
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arachnophilia
Member (Idle past 85 days)
Posts: 9069
From: god's waiting room
Joined: 05-21-2004


Message 14 of 25 (252506)
10-17-2005 7:58 PM


what's next? alpha?
lame.

i say we name we start naming the hurricanes from politicians involved in scandals, starting from the top down. then they'll have some social and political importance.

also, i can't believe this thing's gonna backhand us like a pimp. i don't think i've ever seen one go EAST across the state.

This message has been edited by arachnophilia, 10-17-2005 07:58 PM


אָרַח

Replies to this message:
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berberry
Inactive Member


Message 15 of 25 (252510)
10-17-2005 8:11 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by arachnophilia
10-17-2005 7:58 PM


Re: what's next? alpha?
I think that's how the naming convention started. An Austrailian radio forecaster began naming the storms after politicians he didn't like back in the 1910s or 1920s. The US military picked up on the idea some time later, I'm not sure when. I do know that the military was using female names for hurricanes as far back as WWII.


"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by arachnophilia, posted 10-17-2005 7:58 PM arachnophilia has responded

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