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Author Topic:   where was the transition within fossil record?? [Stalled: randman]
Admin
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Message 256 of 304 (254586)
10-24-2005 10:23 PM
Reply to: Message 246 by randman
10-24-2005 1:29 AM


Getting back on track
Hi Randman,
I think the discussion can get back on track if you're willing to accept some constructive feedback, specifically about:
  • The continuum of species change; the spectrum analogy.
  • The nature of fossilization.
  • The difficulty of making estimates in the absence of data.
I think it would be easiest to discuss these in the chat environment. Perhaps they'll be an opportunity when we can both be there at the same time.

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

This message is a reply to:
 Message 246 by randman, posted 10-24-2005 1:29 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 257 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 11:55 AM Admin has replied

randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4920 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 257 of 304 (254695)
10-25-2005 11:55 AM
Reply to: Message 256 by Admin
10-24-2005 10:23 PM


Re: Getting back on track
1. On the continuum of species change, the relevant issue for this discussion, as I see it, is that new features would need to have arisen, specifically the features whales have, and all of the whale distinguishing features not just a few pontential precursors.
Those new features would undoubtedbly have existed within discrete populations, just occurs today.
Is there really any constructive criticism that somehow lessens this point?
2. On the nature of fossilization, I would like to see someone explain why a process so rare routinely has produced dozens, hundreds and thousands of fossils of just one species, and qualify what they mean by "rare." It is rare for some individual to win the lottery, but it is not rare that someone will win the lottery.
3. On the data, we have lots of data. I would like to see why comparing living mammal species and known mammalian fossils is somehow discounted by suppossed lack of data? I don't see evos claiming lack of data when they create all sorts of scenarios from the molecular clock to how an individual trait must have arose. Imo, it is disingenious on the part of evos here claiming a lack of data.
There is not a lack of data as much as there is a lack of willingness to admit that to evolve a huge change such as a land mammal to a whale would involve tons of speciation events developing many new features.
I am willing to accept feedback, but only if that feedback is tied to the specific issues raised above, and not just thrown our willy-nilly.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 256 by Admin, posted 10-24-2005 10:23 PM Admin has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 258 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 12:21 PM randman has replied
 Message 259 by Modulous, posted 10-25-2005 12:26 PM randman has replied
 Message 267 by mark24, posted 10-25-2005 1:33 PM randman has replied
 Message 280 by Admin, posted 10-25-2005 2:20 PM randman has replied

Yaro
Member (Idle past 6517 days)
Posts: 1797
Joined: 07-12-2003


Message 258 of 304 (254701)
10-25-2005 12:21 PM
Reply to: Message 257 by randman
10-25-2005 11:55 AM


Re: Getting back on track
1. On the continuum of species change, the relevant issue for this discussion, as I see it, is that new features would need to have arisen, specifically the features whales have, and all of the whale distinguishing features not just a few pontential precursors.
I don't understand what you mean by this exactly. Are you saying that you would expect a whale precoursor to have a blowhole and fins? Like, suddenly a land mamal gave birth to a dolphin?
Seriously, could you explain this question a little more.
2. On the nature of fossilization, I would like to see someone explain why a process so rare routinely has produced dozens, hundreds and thousands of fossils of just one species, and qualify what they mean by "rare." It is rare for some individual to win the lottery, but it is not rare that someone will win the lottery.
Ah, that's an easy one. It boils down to quantity and environment.
We have tons of fossils of trilobites and other Cambrian fauna because they were incredibly abundant, and luckily enough, they lived in a sediment filled environments. Couple that with easy to fossilize hard shells, and continental uplift (pushing their burial grounds up above watter where scientists can study them), you got a creature that turns up a lot in the fossil record.
Now, consider a creature like the whale. It's populations are relatively small, and wide ranging. Most whales live in deep ocean watter. Furthermore, whales haven't been around for very long so we can't really rely on much tectonic activity to reveal any deep ocean burial sites to us.
In any case, while the probabilities are higher given many factors, there is never a 100% guarantee. Just because something fossilizes it doesn't mean 1) it will last the millenia 2) will ever be found.
3. On the data, we have lots of data. I would like to see why comparing living mammal species and known mammalian fossils is somehow discounted by suppossed lack of data?
Again, I'm not following. Are you talking about fossilization rates between extinct and non-extinct critters? If you are, then the fallacy of that logic is evident.
You can't account for the millions of years time difference. Not to mention the myriad other variables involved.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 257 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 11:55 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 260 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 12:29 PM Yaro has replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 259 of 304 (254702)
10-25-2005 12:26 PM
Reply to: Message 257 by randman
10-25-2005 11:55 AM


Please address these simple points
2. On the nature of fossilization, I would like to see someone explain why a process so rare routinely has produced dozens, hundreds and thousands of fossils of just one species
Any number of factors have been proposed:
* high quantity of living members of the population
* population existed in an area highly conducive to fossilization
* population existed globally, including areas highly conducive to fossilzation
* population existed in a similar state of affairs for a long period of time
* population existed in areas which have had a high fossil survival rate
* population existed in areas which have had a high fossil discovery rate (ie are accesable to humans in a practical manner)
There maybe more and the actual answer is likely to be some combination of the above.
and qualify what they mean by "rare."
As explained by myself previously it means that the vast majority of organisms that die do not fossilize.
For more information, see Message 93, Message 87 and to a lesser extent Message 110
3. On the data, we have lots of data. I would like to see why comparing living mammal species and known mammalian fossils is somehow discounted by suppossed lack of data?
Because we still don't have enough data. The missing data has been pointed out to you. I challenged your core assumptions on this in Message 251.
I don't see evos claiming lack of data when they create all sorts of scenarios from the molecular clock to how an individual trait must have arose.
quote:
However, the use of fossils for dating nodes is subject to error, and there are several reasons why a given fossil may incorrectly date a node, leading to in congruence between age estimates derived from fossils and molecular dating methods (Smith and Peterson 2002; Benton and Ayala 2003; Bromham and Penny 2003). The incompleteness of the fossil record will consistently lead to an underestimation of the age of any given lineage (Marshall 1990b), and the magnitude of this error bias will depend on the difference between the fossil age and the actual lineage age (Springer 1995). Severe but directionally random errors can also result when fossils are placed erroneously into a phylogenetic tree (Lee 1999; Benton and Ayala 2003), when the phylogeny itself is in error, or when the geological age estimates of fossil-bearing rocks are in error (Conroy and van Tuinen 2003). Finally, error will occur if minimal age estimates are applied to the crown group that a fossil subtends rather than the appropriate stem lineage in a phylogenetic tree (Doyle and Donoghue
1993; Magallon and Sanderson 2001).
Assessing Concordance of Fossil Calibration Points in Molecular Clock Studies: An Example Using Turtles
It took me seconds to find a paper that 'claimed a lack of data' in the the molecular clock scenario. Your point is summarily refuted by example.
There is not a lack of data as much as there is a lack of willingness to admit that to evolve a huge change such as a land mammal to a whale would involve tons of speciation events developing many new features.
I don't think anyone has a problem with the idea of it being necessary that there be a large number of extinct species of pre-modern whale cetaceans.
I am willing to accept feedback, but only if that feedback is tied to the specific issues raised above, and not just thrown our willy-nilly.
I believe my points directly respond to your points.
This message has been edited by Modulous, Tue, 25-October-2005 05:39 PM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 257 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 11:55 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 261 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 12:40 PM Modulous has replied

randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4920 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 260 of 304 (254704)
10-25-2005 12:29 PM
Reply to: Message 258 by Yaro
10-25-2005 12:21 PM


Re: Getting back on track
Yaro,
1. In other words, the whole spectrum issue is not germane. Ay any given point, life presumably would have, according to evo assumptions, be somewhat similar today in certain respects. The vast majority of species and features would exist within discretem populations of species that interbreed within that group solely (talking of land mammal to whale evolution). So the spectrum idea is meaningless in terms of this discussion.
2.
We have tons of fossils of trilobites and other Cambrian fauna because they were incredibly abundant, and luckily enough, they lived in a sediment filled environments. Couple that with easy to fossilize hard shells, and continental uplift (pushing their burial grounds up above watter where scientists can study them), you got a creature that turns up a lot in the fossil record.
Now, consider a creature like the whale. It's populations are relatively small, and wide ranging. Most whales live in deep ocean watter. Furthermore, whales haven't been around for very long so we can't really rely on much tectonic activity to reveal any deep ocean burial sites to us.
The problem is that whale fossils are not rare but very well-represented and fairly common. That's the whole point, and something I have been trying to get across to you guys. You, for example, felt obviously that whale fossils are fairly rare as evidenced by your post, but they are not Yaro. Look at the doggone data instead of analogies and semantics.
3. Look at the data. How do you know there is not enough data if you won't look at it.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 258 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 12:21 PM Yaro has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 262 by Omnivorous, posted 10-25-2005 1:03 PM randman has replied
 Message 266 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 1:32 PM randman has replied

randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4920 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 261 of 304 (254708)
10-25-2005 12:40 PM
Reply to: Message 259 by Modulous
10-25-2005 12:26 PM


Re: Please address these simple points
Modulous,
1. Those reasons are missing the point. Explaining why some species are more likely to have fossils than others is not what I am asking. I am asking for definitions within a context of rarity. Fossilization is not that rare for many species, and we are asked to assume it is incredibly rare for something like 99.9% of species or maybe families of species.
That doesn't make sense that we would see an abundance of many species all over the world fossilized, and yet none of the vast majority of other species even those occupying the same habitat. The evo argument is that a lack of data is data, and I think the fact we don't see all these fossils may indicate that the species never existed in the first place.
3. On your definition of rare, that is once again a weasel answer. The fact most organisms don't fossilize means nothing. 100% of species could fossilize and fossils of all species be extremely common, and your definition be true, but obviously species fossilizing would not be rare. The question is how rare, and back this up with quantized analysis not just mere claims, is it for species or families of species, specifically mammals, to have fossils that we have found?
Can you answer that, please?
4.
I don't think anyone has a problem with the idea of it being necessary that there be a large number of extinct species of pre-modern whale cetaceans.
Where are they in the fossil record? Whales are abundant in the fossil record, and going back further in time (evo assumptions) so are other creatures not considered direct ancestors of whales, such as Basilosaurus.
So where are the large numbers of other aquatic species that evolved into whales?
The data is there, namely:
1. abundance of whale fossils
2. abundance of fossils from aqautic species like Basilosaurus that predates the immediate ancestots of whales
So we see that creatures occupying the whale's habitat fossilize. Answers that.
We see that time is not an issue because we see an abundance of fossils from before and after the period of time we are discussing as far as immediate whale ancestors.
So why don't we see any of the whale's immediate predecessors?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 259 by Modulous, posted 10-25-2005 12:26 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 265 by Modulous, posted 10-25-2005 1:24 PM randman has replied

Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3985
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 7.1


Message 262 of 304 (254710)
10-25-2005 1:03 PM
Reply to: Message 260 by randman
10-25-2005 12:29 PM


So show us the data, already!
randman writes:
The problem is that whale fossils are not rare but very well-represented and fairly common. That's the whole point, and something I have been trying to get across to you guys. You, for example, felt obviously that whale fossils are fairly rare as evidenced by your post, but they are not Yaro. Look at the doggone data instead of analogies and semantics.
3. Look at the data. How do you know there is not enough data if you won't look at it.
I have asked on multiple occasions for you to back up these claims about whale fossil abundance.
Show me the data.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 260 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 12:29 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 263 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 1:12 PM Omnivorous has replied

randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4920 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 263 of 304 (254711)
10-25-2005 1:12 PM
Reply to: Message 262 by Omnivorous
10-25-2005 1:03 PM


Re: So show us the data, already!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 262 by Omnivorous, posted 10-25-2005 1:03 PM Omnivorous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 264 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 1:22 PM randman has replied
 Message 277 by Modulous, posted 10-25-2005 2:05 PM randman has not replied
 Message 286 by Omnivorous, posted 10-25-2005 3:45 PM randman has replied

Yaro
Member (Idle past 6517 days)
Posts: 1797
Joined: 07-12-2003


Message 264 of 304 (254714)
10-25-2005 1:22 PM
Reply to: Message 263 by randman
10-25-2005 1:12 PM


Re: So show us the data, already!
Rule #5:
Bare links with no supporting discussion should be avoided. Make the argument in your own words and use links as supporting references.
Please cite aspects of the articles you tink are relevant and/or wan't to discuss.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 263 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 1:12 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 268 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 1:40 PM Yaro has replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 265 of 304 (254715)
10-25-2005 1:24 PM
Reply to: Message 261 by randman
10-25-2005 12:40 PM


Re: Please address these simple points
Those reasons are missing the point. Explaining why some species are more likely to have fossils than others is not what I am asking.
Excellent, then you concede that I have explained why some species are more likely to have fossils than others.
I am asking for definitions within a context of rarity. Fossilization is not that rare for many species, and we are asked to assume it is incredibly rare for something like 99.9% of species or maybe families of species.
Referring you back to Message 93, Message 87, Message 110 and of course, Message 259, all that is being proposed is that the vast majority of organisms that die do not fossilize. You accept (above) that populations can be favourable to discovarable fossilization. There are reasons that have been given why some species have many more fossils than others. Notably in the very post you replied to. Let me go over them again:
quote:
* high quantity of living members of the population
* population existed in an area highly conducive to fossilization
* population existed globally, including areas highly conducive to fossilzation
* population existed in a similar state of affairs for a long period of time
* population existed in areas which have had a high fossil survival rate
* population existed in areas which have had a high fossil discovery rate (ie are accesable to humans in a practical manner)
The populations of species that we see many accounts of probably existed under some combination of the above conditions. The populations of species that we do not see many accounts of probably existed under different combinations, such as existing in an area which has no surviving fossils due to erosion, or existing in areas that inaccessable or existing in areas that were high in predation or any number of counter scenarios to the above list.
On your definition of rare, that is once again a weasel answer.
Sorry for giving you a weasel answer, but it is the honest answer, so I assume you should deal with it.
quote:
Most organisms do not fossilize and those that do are usually destroyed by geological processes or they never surface for examination
Source
quote:
Most organisms lack substantial hard parts and rarely fossilize. The fossil record in its entirety is estimated to include only from 3% to 13.6% of all species that ever lived. The vast majority of described species are living ” only 8.7% of those described formally are fossils.
Source
The fact most organisms don't fossilize means nothing.
I contend that it means something. I contend that it means that most organisms that die do not fossilize.
100% of species could fossilize and fossils of all species be extremely common, and your definition be true
You mean 100% of all species could have at least one member fossilized and my definition still be true? Yes, one could argue that. It would still be a rare event.
but obviously species fossilizing would not be rare
Indeed.
The question is how rare, and back this up with quantized analysis not just mere claims, is it for species or families of species, specifically mammals, to have fossils that we have found?
Well, in order to make this kind of analysis we need data. Data that we are missing, the kind of missing data is discussed in Message 237 (and in just about every other post in this thread). Nobody is making any mathematical claims based on rarity so exact figures for each species is not necessary. If you want to quantisize, let's try for just one species. Basilosaurus:
Answer me this: How many times did Basilosaurus fossilize?
We'll need to know this, and we'll need to know:
How many Basilosauruses have ever existed.
Then we can calculate, for that species, how rare fossilization was.
Of course, we cannot do this calculation. If you can actually demonstrate why a quantitive figure is needed for certain conclusions to be reached, then do so.
I'm going to paste your quote again:
The question is how rare, and back this up with quantized analysis not just mere claims, is it for species or families of species, specifically mammals, to have fossils that we have found?
It is rare for any organism that dies to fossilize. That refers to individuals.
True or False:
* low population species are less likely to have an individual represented in the fossil record.
The answer to your question is: It depends. It is rare for a small (quantity) species living in an area ill-conducive to fossilisation, with high predation living alongside scavengers which only exist for 5,000 years to have one of its members fossilize.
It is less rare for a highly populated species living in ideal fossilization areas, little predation or scavengers which exist for 10,000,000 years to have a member fossilize.
Where are they in the fossil record? So where are the large numbers of other aquatic species that evolved into whales?
They either didn't fossilize, haven't been discovered or have been since destroyed.
So we see that creatures occupying the whale's habitat fossilize. Answers that.
Modern Whales and Basilosaurus are known to be global, long lasting and highly populace species. Can you tell me that the intermediate species were also global, long lasting and highly populated? Also note, I believe I have listed at least 8 found transitional fossils between Whales and Basilosaurus.
We see that time is not an issue because we see an abundance of fossils from before and after the period of time we are discussing as far as immediate whale ancestors.
It is the length of time given transitionals stuck around, and how populace they were.
So why don't we see any of the whale's immediate predecessors?
We do, several of my posts have documented eight cetaceans between basilosaurus and modern whales.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 261 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 12:40 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 292 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 5:14 PM Modulous has replied

Yaro
Member (Idle past 6517 days)
Posts: 1797
Joined: 07-12-2003


Message 266 of 304 (254720)
10-25-2005 1:32 PM
Reply to: Message 260 by randman
10-25-2005 12:29 PM


Re: Getting back on track
The problem is that whale fossils are not rare but very well-represented and fairly common. That's the whole point, and something I have been trying to get across to you guys.
Yes, I suppose some species of ancient whale are. Like Basilosaur for example. But "well represented" is a relative term.
For example, compare the amount of whale fossils we have to the amount of trilobytes. You see what I mean?
We may have a few dozen basilosaurus fossils, but we have several thousand (guessing here, may be wrong, but the number is up there) trilobites.
Look at the data. How do you know there is not enough data if you won't look at it.
Well, we have looked at the data.....
Let me put it to you this way randman.
Say your friend Joe goes to the casino every week to play roulette. Joe goes in on monday and wins himself $1000 dollars. Now you want to use the data gathered from that win (the squares he played, the amount he wagered, how many times he gambled before making a win) to assess what joe won (if he won at all) last week.
How are you gonna do that?
I mean, you can callculate the odds of winning based on the amount of squares joe played this week, etc. But you can't guarantee Joe played any of the same squares last week, or how much money he wagered, or any other specific info for that matter, so the point is moot. All you know is that Joe played last week and that's it.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 260 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 12:29 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 269 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 1:45 PM Yaro has replied
 Message 273 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 1:54 PM Yaro has replied

mark24
Member (Idle past 5216 days)
Posts: 3857
From: UK
Joined: 12-01-2001


Message 267 of 304 (254721)
10-25-2005 1:33 PM
Reply to: Message 257 by randman
10-25-2005 11:55 AM


Re: Getting back on track
randman,
2. On the nature of fossilization, I would like to see someone explain why a process so rare routinely has produced dozens, hundreds and thousands of fossils of just one species, and qualify what they mean by "rare." It is rare for some individual to win the lottery, but it is not rare that someone will win the lottery.
Rare = Uncommon. It is a relative term, however.
Some species potentially leave lots of fossils because they either:
A/ Exist in huge numbers, making even the low individual chance of fossilisation likely;
B/ Exist in excellent conditions for fossilisation;
C/ Exposed fossiliferous strata of any given age are limited in geographical extent on the modern earths surface. So give us potentially biased glimpses into the past. ie. A species that is only locally common may be very well represented purely because its geographical location is exposed on the surface today.
D/ Are geographically widespread, increasing the chance of being exposed on the surface in the limited locations that that era is exposed in today.
The reason species won't leave fossils are because:
1/ Fossiliferous strata were annihilated by metamorphosism, or were eroded;
2/ The species existed in limited numbers;
3/ The species existed in environments not conducive to fossilisation;
4/ Exposed fossiliferous strata of any given age are limited in geographical extent on the modern earths surface. Species that lived elsewhere will be unavailable to us as fossils, no matter how many billions of individuals actually became fossils.
5/ The species in question do not fossilise well.
As such, it doesn't matter how abundant a fossil species is, if its ancestors & descendents meet the conditions 1-5, then we are unlikely to see them in the fossil record.
Mark
This message has been edited by mark24, 10-25-2005 01:36 PM

There are 10 kinds of people in this world; those that understand binary, & those that don't

This message is a reply to:
 Message 257 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 11:55 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 270 by randman, posted 10-25-2005 1:47 PM mark24 has replied

randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4920 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 268 of 304 (254723)
10-25-2005 1:40 PM
Reply to: Message 264 by Yaro
10-25-2005 1:22 PM


Re: So show us the data, already!
Yaro, he is asking for whale fossils, to show how common they are. As such, the links are self-explanatory. They show whale finds in many different areas of the world.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 264 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 1:22 PM Yaro has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 271 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 1:50 PM randman has not replied

randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4920 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 269 of 304 (254724)
10-25-2005 1:45 PM
Reply to: Message 266 by Yaro
10-25-2005 1:32 PM


Re: Getting back on track
We may have a few dozen basilosaurus fossils, but we have several thousand (guessing here, may be wrong, but the number is up there) trilobites.
Yaro, take some time to learn the data. Try to engage it instead of trying to make an argument.
We have thousands of Basilosaurus fossils. They are so common in Louisiana and Mississippi that people used them for various things around the house and to prop up houses. If you had at all taken the time to seriously look at the links I provide on these threads and my posts, you would know that.
You didn't know that because you are just trying to win debates without ever seriously considering the criticism of ToE, which is something I have noticed with most evos. They never really looked into the data for themselves, but just parrot the party line as it were, which is why they are usually incapable of discussing any data that does not seem to agree with ToE.
Conversely, if an evo provides a way for them to view the data within the scope of ToE, they can do that. ToE serves as an ideological knowledge filter.
Wake up and look at the data for yourself!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 266 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 1:32 PM Yaro has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 275 by Yaro, posted 10-25-2005 2:02 PM randman has not replied

randman 
Suspended Member (Idle past 4920 days)
Posts: 6367
Joined: 05-26-2005


Message 270 of 304 (254726)
10-25-2005 1:47 PM
Reply to: Message 267 by mark24
10-25-2005 1:33 PM


Re: Getting back on track
Mark, can any of you guys explain how in the same area, we see whales and Basilosaurus, but none of the species that supposedly are in between.
You can't because there is no good explanation. Engage the specific areas and specific data, not generalizations about why some species may not have fossilized.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 267 by mark24, posted 10-25-2005 1:33 PM mark24 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 272 by Modulous, posted 10-25-2005 1:54 PM randman has replied
 Message 278 by mark24, posted 10-25-2005 2:08 PM randman has not replied

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