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Author | Topic: why is alcohol legal: the george best/opening hours thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||
macaroniandcheese  Suspended Member (Idle past 3955 days) Posts: 4258 Joined: |
So, in other words, you're a creationist.
and you're an asshole. no. scientists trust nature and i trust my own two eyes. i will trust their statistics when i see a test of significance and a test of generalizability.
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AdminNWR Inactive Member |
crashfrog and brennakimi, let's avoid insults and stick to substance.
Thanks.
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Modulous Member Posts: 7801 From: Manchester, UK Joined: |
Being incompetent should be a barrier to getting a license. Agreed, we should test people before they get a licence.
Demonstrating incompetence, by such things as hitting parked vehicles on slow residential roads, should trigger evaluation of competence. This kind of incident is very common, in a massive majority of cases it is a one off event, implying a mistake (imperfection) rather than incompetence. I think a better idea would be to allow the police discretionary powers to charge a driver with driving without due care and attention in cases which they feel are the exception to this majority, and then give the courts discretionary powers to give a minor punishment (endorsing a licence (if you have such a thing in the States I do not know), fines, suspension of licence, etc).
The fallacy of popularity? No. It is simply a fact, and coupled with the idea that in most cases it is a one off event, it seems to indicate that these things are a result of simple one time mistakes.
This just demonstrates a very lax attitude about having competent (and responsible) drivers, not that this is a good thing to occur eh? You seem to be implying that hitting a parked vehicle has automatically condemned you as being an incompetent and irresponsible driver rather than a imperfect one. A responsible driver stops after an incident, exchanges insurance details and admits liability to their insurer.
btw, do you think that a driver with a record of hitting parked vehicles while sober is likely to be a better driver drunk (or tired or whatever) than a person who hasn't? A person who has a record of hitting parked vehicles?? This is a different thing than we have been discussing so far. A person with a 'record' implies an incompetent driver (who is probably paying an obscene amount of insurance with an unbelievable excess (or deductable as you might call it), so would (on average) fair worse whilst impaired.
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Modulous Member Posts: 7801 From: Manchester, UK Joined: |
I work in insurance, so its weird to be on EvC as an 'expert'. The funny thing is that basically both schraf and you seem to be right here.
Basically certain factors increase your risk. Driving the vehicle to work every day, driving a high powered vehicle, living in a dodgy area, being a construction worker or footballer, being a young driver, being an inexperienced driver, being male, having driving convictions, etc etc etc. Some of these factors don't increase your risk of having an accident, but the risk is that any accident you do have will cost more (eg being a footballer means injury claims from passengers will be more likely higher). Some are a combination of the two. Having any accident increases your premiums, but this is basically regardless of the cost of the claim (YMMV, different insurers might do this differently), and generally involves losing things such as 'no claims discount'...this represents you being a higher risk for being involved in a further accident. As far as citations and tickets, not all of them will increase everyone's insurance. Many minor convictions are ignored for the first offense (eg speeding, minor traffic violations, parking illegally etc).
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Modulous Member Posts: 7801 From: Manchester, UK Joined: |
As reported in the June issue of Epidemiology, American women were involved in 5.7 crashes per million miles driven. Men, on the other hand, clocked up just 5.1 crashes per million miles. Given the fact that men drive an estimated 74 per cent more miles per year than women, the figure is surprising indeed. Heh - this is getting off topic Still this confuses me. Why is it suprising that a group which has extra driving experience has fewer accidents? Surely the figure is surprising, but not because men drive more.
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Modulous Member Posts: 7801 From: Manchester, UK Joined: |
i just happen to look around me instead of trusting statistics. Heh - its that kind of thing that leads people to believe that black people are stupid, or left handed people prone to domestic violence or other silly things. You can't accept a small sample just because it is the sample you happened to look at unfortunately, the chances are that you do not have a representative sample.
i know the kind of things statistics can be twisted into Then you know that small sample sizes interpreted subjectively are a great way to twist statistics.
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ohnhai Member (Idle past 5189 days) Posts: 649 From: Melbourne, Australia Joined: |
Dont forget that alcohol was also used to make water safer to drink and as a source of callories. link to abstract
There was a time when it was far safer to drink alcoholic beverages (even if they were very watered down)than to drink the water by it's self. It is as deep in western/European culture as you can get. In fact it has shaped the our very nature in the as most Europeans and those who are descended from us have evolved to have a tolerance of alcohol that other isolated ethic groups who didn’t routinely use alcohol to purify water are missing (it is a well documented fact that may Asians lack any meaningful tolerance to alcohol and are ”drunk’ by the end of the first glass. ) It’s not illegal because alcohol is a huge part of who we are and the abuse of it is a regrettable side note to that . ( that and the taxes it generates)
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nator Member (Idle past 2197 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: |
quote: Can you please demonstrate that this is the case? It would also be a good idea for us to determine which "then" we are talking about. I'll let you define that, if you like.
quote: But people used to ferment everything at home, especially beer, back then, so even though more is available now, one never was without it back then because you made it yourself.
quote: Also, it is likely, and there is scholarly opinion that a lot of people spent much of the day, every day, drunk.
quote: Nice try at an ad hominem to try to get out of backing up your claims. I have never been speaking of anything other than historical fact in our discussion. My using the word "soused" indicates nothing at all about my personal views. I could use the word "intoxicated" or "drunk" from now on if you prefer. Now come on, why not try to back up the claims you have been stating so confidently?
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nator Member (Idle past 2197 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: |
quote: No, scientists do not "trust nature". They study nature. Scientists trust the scientific method to help them see nature far, far clearer than "their own two eyes" ever could. Your own hunches and suppositions and anecdotal evidence are extremely likely to be riddled with personal biases, unwarranted conclusions and assumptions, and logical errors. That's why the scientific method exists and why it's much better at determining reality that you, or me, or any other individual; I don't have to take your word for things that you believe or think to be true based only upon your tiny, limited, error-prone, bised recollection of your experiences. And before you throw a hissy fit about me saying you are biased and error-prone, I will state up front that we are ALL error prone and biased by virtue of being human. This message has been edited by schrafinator, 11-28-2005 08:39 AM
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nator Member (Idle past 2197 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: |
Hey, do your rates go up if the accident was not your fault at all?
Like, if you were driving along and someone pulls out of a driveway and hits you broadside?
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macaroniandcheese  Suspended Member (Idle past 3955 days) Posts: 4258 Joined: |
well. seeing as i tend to move every couple years and travel a lot and to very different locations, my sample size is a bit bigger. yes i appreciate your point but it's not applicable.
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macaroniandcheese  Suspended Member (Idle past 3955 days) Posts: 4258 Joined: |
yep. because you are now prone to not being defensive.
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nator Member (Idle past 2197 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: |
quote: So, can you please describe your methods for recording your observations, and also the statistical methodology you have used to determine your results?
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nator Member (Idle past 2197 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: |
Maybe. I'll wait to find out what the expert on insurance has to say.
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macaroniandcheese  Suspended Member (Idle past 3955 days) Posts: 4258 Joined: |
that there are more things to drink than wine,
But people used to ferment everything at home, especially beer, back then, so even though more is available now, one never was without it back then because you made it yourself. i mean that there is water and juice and soda etc. context clues, really. Also, it is likely, and there is scholarly opinion that a lot of people spent much of the day, every day, drunk. show me a lit review, not just one source that happens to back you up. you're so intent on proving me wrong. i just think the whole thing is funny. i don't care about the history of alcohol, i just care that you seem to think that anyone who drinks more than some preposterous amount -that you have decided upon but won't share- is a damn drunk and a terrible person because of it. i have the choice not to drink; i also have the choice not to get drunk. i don't get drunk; however, i do drink a great deal. but i also have the opinion that you are a very judgemental person who draws conclusions then scurries around to defend them taking great comfort when something ridiculous backs you up. now, you've been jumping down my throat for two days about shit that doesn't matter and isn't even on topic. i make one side comment and you go nuts about it. get over it. you're a pain.
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