Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
5 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,817 Year: 3,074/9,624 Month: 919/1,588 Week: 102/223 Day: 13/17 Hour: 0/1


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Scenarios For the Near Future Climax of Human History
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 1 of 36 (264505)
11-30-2005 2:48 PM


What Does the near future hold?
IMO, it is obvious that human history is rapidly approaching a climax of sorts if for no other reason than the rapidly accelerating power of technology.
I have described below seven general prevalent future scenarios.
It seems to me a majority of naturalistic scientists, New Agers, Spiritualists, and religious ecumenicalists believe in some version of scenario 1,3, or 4. These are by far the most popular and widely accepted scenarios. A few Secular Pessimists believe in Scenario #2. The Secular Conspiracy theorists ascribe to some version of Scenario #5. A vast majority of Christian evangelicals believe in Scenario #7. A few Christians (myself included) are starting to ascribe to Scenario #6.
What scenario do YOU believe is most likely to play out as we approach this climax of human history and why? (doesn't have to be 1 of my 7) Which scenario do you think is the least likely and why?
Scenario #1: Naturalistic Tehcnological Utopia
As described by Ray Kurzweil in his book "The Singularity is Near" and "The Age of Spiritual Machines", the "Law of Accelerating Returns" will continue to cause technological power to increase exponentially so that virtual reality and "real" reality will be basically indistinguishable. This will result in a sort of man-made utopia. By plotting out current trends of technological advancement, we can project a "singularity" (or near infinite increase) sometime shortly after 2045, beyond which we cannot possibly fathom the nature of humanity.
Scenario #2: Humanity goes nova, but no black hole.
Suppose Kurzweil is wrong and the "Law of Accelerating Returns" is not the only driving factor in the course of human history over the next 40 years. Suppose that the saying is true, "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely." Such a massive increase in technology equals a massive increase in power equals a massive corrupting influence equals a violent return to the Dark ages. The only thing that could possibly circumvent this "singularity" is a WWIII that sends us back into the dark ages.
Scenario #3: Spiritualistic Technological utopia
--A slight modification from scenario #1, yet still optimistic. This includes a spiritual element. With the coming technological revolutions in Genetics, Robotics, and Nanotechnology, all the world's problems will be solved and humanity will finally begin to overlook its internal differences and advance as a whole into a "NEW AGE" of spiritual enlightenment (but a "purging" might be necessary). "Spiritual Guides" (if you wish to believe in that sort of thing) will encourage and help humanity on this noble path.
Scenario #4 New Age Messiah
--A slight modification of scenario #3. On the eve of this great "breakthrough" into the new technological utopia and spiritual enlightenment (around the year 2012, but no later than Kurzweil's singularity at 2045), the "gods" who claim to have originally created humanity show up in their inter-dimensional flying saucers and tell us how pleased they are with our progress and how they want to help us achieve this new epoch of our evolution if only we will invite them to (This is Raelian doctrine). Our alien "parents" (or spiritual guides as some will call them) will guide us into the promised enlightenment and utopia.
Scenario #5 Conspiracy, Deception, and 1984
The increase in technology creates corruption in the dark corners of secret government projects which are always exploiting new technologies for military purposes (which could include an intelligence network of all sorts of spying machines, new WMDs such as weather manipulation, and the secret creation of a superace of genetically modified beings). Presumably this leads to a New World Order for which an infrastructure is currently being innocently put into place in the name of security and protection from terrorists, fraud, natural disasters, and other phantom "beasties" like say.. bird flu. Once all freedoms have been surrendered and all the Big Brother infrastructure is in place, promises of utopias similar to those mentioned above will deceive and ultimately enslave mankind.
Scenario #6 Conspiracy, Deception, and Armageddon
Like in Scenario #5, a NWO infrastructure is created while those who are not wise to the conspiracy entertain visions of scenarios #1,3,4. They can see the "singularity" approaching, but realize that unless mankind overcomes its problems, it cannot progress. They look for a "savior" figure to save them from mankind's troubles. This comes in the form of the interdimensional beings (aka fallen angels, aliens)uniting with world leaders in this endeavor (as was pre-planned by select government officials "in the know"). This Messiah figure assumes power to the astonishment and delight of many, while many others create anarchy after seeing "aliens" among us. The ensuing anarchy is used to help bring about a police state in the name of "purging" or "cleansing". The mark of the beast, and the image, etc. are instated. Things look up for a while, but quickly go sour. The Biblical descriptions of the "Last Days" are applicable. Of course it all ends with Jesus coming back to earth resurrecting the saints and smushing the Beast and his followers before they can destroy Israel.
Scenario #7 Left Behind
Sometime in the near future all the Christians disappear. In the ensuing chaos the antichrist takes over the world. 7 years of tribulation follow... yada yada yada... (everyone knows this one by now) Jesus Christ returns and smushes the bad guys at Armageddon.
So what will it be? Utopia or Destruction? And what will prove to be the prevailing driving forces that get us there?
{Note from Adminnemooseus: Prior to spinning off message 1 of the "Proposed New Topic" version, I'm adding the content of the PNT's message 5}:
HD, in PNT message 5 writes:
I was thinking Coffee House cuz that's generally where these sorts of random topics go.
I didn't intend to discuss the meanings of various prophecies of different religions, but rather intended to discuss what commonly believed in scenarios are likely to occur based on current events and historical trends. Some of these scenarios are inevitably created in part by a religious prophetic element, but the debate should be about whether or not this scenario is likely to play out rather than what prophecies this scenario came from or if they are interpreted accurately or not.
I would also like to hear what EvC Members believe is likely to occur.
This message has been edited by Hangdawg13, 11-30-2005 01:54 PM
This message has been edited by Adminnemooseus, 11-30-2005 02:46 PM

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by MangyTiger, posted 11-30-2005 8:29 PM Hangdawg13 has replied
 Message 6 by Omnivorous, posted 11-30-2005 8:45 PM Hangdawg13 has replied
 Message 11 by Nighttrain, posted 12-02-2005 1:11 AM Hangdawg13 has replied
 Message 22 by ReverendDG, posted 02-25-2006 4:13 AM Hangdawg13 has not replied
 Message 24 by lfen, posted 02-25-2006 4:42 AM Hangdawg13 has replied
 Message 33 by iano, posted 02-27-2006 12:01 PM Hangdawg13 has not replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 3 of 36 (264563)
11-30-2005 7:53 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Mespo
11-30-2005 3:35 PM


Re: Scenario #8 (The Worst of All for some people)
I started to include this scenario on my list, since I figured it would be highly favored by most of the cynics here at EvC; however, this scenario is the least likely to occur and seven is the number of perfection, so I left it at 7.
The fact is nothing is not going to happen...er... something IS going to happen, though many will continue to believe in this scenario #8 right up until it does happen simply because "nothing" happening is all they've ever known. We intuitively have a linear perspective on change. We erroneously assume that things will continue changing at the rate they are today and that the future will generally look just like the past.
For much of mankind's history these assumptions haven't been too critical since the rate of change was extremely small. The reality is that we are on an exponential curve and nearing dramatic turn upwards.
I'll borrow a parable from Kurzweil's book, "The Singularity Is Near".
A man is taking care of fish in a pond and is tasked with eliminating the lily pads. The lily pads double in number every week or so and if they cover the entire pond, all the fish will die. The man watches the lily pads grow for several months, but they appear to be growing so slowly there is no conceviable danger of them over taking the pond in the next two weeks, so the man goes on vactation for 2 weeks. When he returns home the pond is completely covered in lily pads and all the fish are dead.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Mespo, posted 11-30-2005 3:35 PM Mespo has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Phat, posted 11-30-2005 8:26 PM Hangdawg13 has not replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 7 of 36 (264622)
11-30-2005 11:33 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Omnivorous
11-30-2005 8:45 PM


Technology has been rapidly accelerating for centuries.
...verry slowly.
So slowly in fact, that it appears linear, but we are rounding the exponential curve where things are beginning to change much faster.
Moore's law is just one well-known example of many of this exponential increase.
There will be at least as much technological change in the next 25 years as there was over the last century.
Perhaps the climax you feel rapidly approaching is your own.
...no I don't see any climax in my future... in fact if I just graduate and get a job next year, that looks like a pretty boring anti-climax to all that's gone on in my life...
I'm purty sure that human history really is approaching its climax though.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Omnivorous, posted 11-30-2005 8:45 PM Omnivorous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by coffee_addict, posted 12-01-2005 12:34 AM Hangdawg13 has replied
 Message 10 by Omnivorous, posted 12-01-2005 8:34 AM Hangdawg13 has not replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 8 of 36 (264623)
11-30-2005 11:35 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by MangyTiger
11-30-2005 8:29 PM


Re: None of the above
Some unforseen technological, biological, political, religious or other phenomenon will catch everyone by surprise and take us in an unexpected direction.
Probably...
It'll be an adventure!
Sure will!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by MangyTiger, posted 11-30-2005 8:29 PM MangyTiger has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by Phat, posted 12-03-2005 9:45 AM Hangdawg13 has not replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 15 of 36 (265481)
12-04-2005 2:50 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by coffee_addict
12-01-2005 12:34 AM


But seriously, without some kind of real competition, we're not going to evolve far beyond this point.
Biological evolution is extremely slow in comparison to technological evolution. It is technological evoltution that promises to change humanity. All that is necessary is a machine or being with the combined intelligence and desire necessary to change and improve itself. The combined intelligence has reached the point where these changes can happen within one human generation, so biological evolution has ceased to be an issue.
With technological evolution, competition for food and habitat is no longer the force that drives the change, rather it is our own desires for money, power, self-improvement, eternal life, to transcend the universe, .....to become gods...

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by coffee_addict, posted 12-01-2005 12:34 AM coffee_addict has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by Phat, posted 12-04-2005 5:27 PM Hangdawg13 has not replied
 Message 19 by coffee_addict, posted 12-05-2005 2:20 AM Hangdawg13 has replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 16 of 36 (265484)
12-04-2005 2:54 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by Nighttrain
12-02-2005 1:11 AM


Re: Dusk approaches
Both very plausible scenarios... though is it really possible for a bacteria or virus to have a death rate of 100%? yeah... I spose it really is possible...

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Nighttrain, posted 12-02-2005 1:11 AM Nighttrain has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by lfen, posted 02-25-2006 4:37 AM Hangdawg13 has not replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 20 of 36 (265890)
12-05-2005 9:22 PM
Reply to: Message 19 by coffee_addict
12-05-2005 2:20 AM


Okay, so we agree then.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by coffee_addict, posted 12-05-2005 2:20 AM coffee_addict has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by Phat, posted 02-25-2006 2:39 AM Hangdawg13 has replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 25 of 36 (290389)
02-25-2006 2:18 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by Phat
02-25-2006 2:39 AM


Re: Any New scenarios?
Looking at the future is a futile exercise.
Looking into the past is looking into the future.
"What has been shall be again; there is no new thing under the sun."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by Phat, posted 02-25-2006 2:39 AM Phat has not replied

  
Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 751 days)
Posts: 1189
From: Texas
Joined: 05-30-2004


Message 26 of 36 (290391)
02-25-2006 2:21 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by lfen
02-25-2006 4:42 AM


I like this one.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by lfen, posted 02-25-2006 4:42 AM lfen has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024