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Author | Topic: Induction and Science | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
All the Crowes I have observed have been wearing black shoes. Therefore all Crowes are wearing black shoes. Why do people still cling to the myth that science uses induction? Why is there an appearance that induction seems to work, and why are people misled by this appearance? (suggest "Is It Science")
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
And yet, that is how science works.
I disagree. It is how philosophers claim that science works. But most philosophers do not actually do science, so have no basis for making such assertions. You might enjoy reading "Against Method" (book by Paul Feyerabend). His proposal of counter-induction is a riot. [I will be suggesting alternatives to induction. But I first need to respond to some posts on induction from What we must accept if we accept evolution Part 2 (roughly messages 237-248 in that thread).]
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
In Message 247, Modulous wrote:
Are you (or is wiki) claiming that no albino crow has ever been observed? That would surely be surprising and worthy of investigation. Must you take it so literally? If I was to show you the classic: All red cars are fast, my car is red, therefore my car is fast syllogism you would say "Not all cars are red!"
The logic there is impeccable. The problem is with one of the premises. In Message 245, Faith wrote:
And I have to ask, so that leaves only deduction as a valid logical method?
Not so. It also leaves empirical methodology, and that is the heart of science. If induction is the key to science, then science proceeds by feeding symbolic facts into some kind of induction logic engine, and out come general truths. This has actually been tried. There is a whole research area, know as "machine learning", based on such inductive methodology. It hasn't produced anything close to what science achieves, nor to what children achieve as learners.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Is it reasonable to consider that all Crowes wear exclusively black footwear?
No, it isn't reasonable. But why not? Isn't that something philosophers, the self-appointed experts on reason, should have investigated?
In this case, it is not particulary reasonable to make that leap. We have never seen a family-name being linked 100% with a fashion, so we cannot make the inductive leap that family-names and fashion tastes are linked somehow.
That was Nelson Goodman's explanation of his "grue" paradox. But it cannot explain science. If science depends on induction, but you only use inductions of the type that have worked before, then there is no way to get started and no way to get started in a new branch of science.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Here we are as an evolution site. Okay, it is an evolution vs. creation site. But the scientists here are mostly proponents of evolution.
If ToE is correct, then biological system have been very effective in creating a diverse biosphere, and they have done it all without using induction. So why is it that the evolutionists are insisting on the importance of induction?
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
I said why not:
And I debunked it in Message 9:
quote: If science depends on induction, but you only use inductions of the type that have worked before, then there is no way to get started and no way to get started in a new branch of science.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Two examples is nowhere near sufficient for induction to be useful.
If I had listed 1000 encounter with Crowes, would that make it any more persuasive?
Yet there is no other way of identifying true regularities than by repeated observation.
I am questioning whether science depends on "true regularities", and even whether there are such things.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Ironic, science isn't it.
Maybe I explained my point poorly. I was not suggesting irony in the way that ToE arose. Rather, I was pointing to such discoveries as that homo sapiens can find a viable niche on this planet, apparently without using induction in that process of discovery.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
What is the difference between these cases? Modulous attempted to explain the difference in Here is the difference as I see it:
I am arguing that what is said to result from induction is actually the result of systematic methodology. Because the study of birds has been systematic, and the name "crow" assigned as a result of that systematic methodology, we can be assured that crows form a reasonably homogeneous group of birds. An inference on the color of crows is based on this homogeneity. In effect, it is a kind of interpolation or extrapolation over a continuum, based on the evidence of a few examples. By contrast, the people named "Crowe" are expected to be relatively inhomogeneous, and thus we would not expect interpolation or extrapolation to be useful. In summary, it is systematicity, not induction, that is important to science. (edit: corrected message reference) This message has been edited by nwr, 02-04-2006 06:51 PM
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
But the fact that all of the Crowes observed wear black shoes seems to suggest that Crowes are somewhat homogenous after all.
Perhaps it could be said to hint at some homogeneity. Still, scientists would not jump to an induction. Rather, they would investigate to look for a common cause.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
For two reasons you are wrong. First is that Message 9 is your post. Second I don't think there are any important differences between the two examples. The only difference is that with crows we have a reason to make the inductive leap.
Apologies on the incorrect reference. I have now edited my earlier message to correct that. You assert that there are no important differences.Then you assert that there is a difference, important enough that induction would work. Seems contradictory. I am arguing that what is said to result from induction is actually the result of systematic methodology. Because the study of birds has been systematic, and the name "crow" assigned as a result of that systematic methodology, we can be assured that crows form a reasonably homogeneous group of birds. An inference on the color of crows is based on this homogeneity. In effect, it is a kind of interpolation or extrapolation over a continuum, based on the evidence of a few examples. By contrast, the people named "Crowe" are expected to be relatively inhomogeneous, and thus we would not expect interpolation or extrapolation to be useful. Which is what I said: We have no reason to make the inductive leap with regards to fashion and family names, so the induction is a bit silly and unfounded.
Of course it is silly. That's why I picked it as an example. If you read the literature on induction, and there is quite a bit of it, you won't find reference to a principle "you have to have a reason to make the inductive leap." The input to the induction is supposed to be reason enough.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
quote:Doesn't this all depend on how many Crowe's we think exist?
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Not that induction would work but that it would be the kind of induction that science would make. There is no real difference in the induction process itself, its just that one has an actual rationale behind making the induction.
Okay. But then you are relying on a different meaning for "induction." The usual account talks of the "logic of induction." If it is logic, then it is operation on symbols. Questions such as "an actual rationale" do not arise if induction is taken as a logic operation.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
Are we maybe equivocating on the term "induction?"
There may well be disagreements about what the term means.
When you refer to induction, are you referring to the Baconian view that scientists can just gather a bunch of objective facts about the world and these facts would almost automatically permit a generalization?
I'm dubious about generalization from just facts. You need an understanding of processes.
I like Darwin's quote about this form of induction:
I think it is pretty clear that Darwin relied on his knowledge of biological processes, most particularly reproductive processes, in forming his theory.
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nwr Member Posts: 6409 From: Geneva, Illinois Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
crashfrog writes:
There are none, as best I can tell.
What are the axiomatic principles of the universe?
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