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Author Topic:   Statistics 101
nator
Member (Idle past 2170 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 1 of 199 (386463)
02-21-2007 10:31 PM


In another thread, someone posted this, which is in error:
quote:
The odds of winning the lotto can be a million to one, but if I win it on my first try, then those weren't my odds were they?
I replied:
Er, yes, those are precisely your odds.
I then went on to pose questions which, when answered correctly, would show the error in the first statement:
What are your odds of getting "heads" in a coin toss the first time you do it?
What about the second time? The 10th time? The millionth time?
I have a friend who's got a saying that goes, "The Lottery is just a tax on people who don't understand statistics."
I'd like to make it clear that I am very far away from anything close to being good at math. It has always been a struggle for me.
(but even I know that answer to the question above)
What I want to discuss is what people think the dangers are to society and individuals in not understanding basic statistics, or even basic math.

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by jar, posted 02-21-2007 10:42 PM nator has replied
 Message 6 by PaulK, posted 02-22-2007 2:06 AM nator has not replied
 Message 8 by Phat, posted 02-22-2007 2:54 AM nator has not replied
 Message 15 by Chiroptera, posted 02-22-2007 10:29 AM nator has replied
 Message 42 by Hyroglyphx, posted 02-22-2007 5:59 PM nator has not replied

  
nator
Member (Idle past 2170 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 3 of 199 (386471)
02-21-2007 11:26 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by jar
02-21-2007 10:42 PM


We are talking about the odds of winning, not the odds after one has won.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by jar, posted 02-21-2007 10:42 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 02-21-2007 11:36 PM nator has not replied
 Message 5 by New Cat's Eye, posted 02-21-2007 11:40 PM nator has not replied

  
nator
Member (Idle past 2170 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 24 of 199 (386564)
02-22-2007 12:24 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by Chiroptera
02-22-2007 10:29 AM


Excellent, Chiro, I was hoping someone expert would show up and take things to another level.
So, what do YOU think are the consequences of people not understanding probability?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by Chiroptera, posted 02-22-2007 10:29 AM Chiroptera has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 53 by Chiroptera, posted 02-22-2007 8:26 PM nator has not replied

  
nator
Member (Idle past 2170 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 108 of 199 (386821)
02-23-2007 8:49 PM
Reply to: Message 79 by Phat
02-23-2007 10:15 AM


Re: statistics will not cure a gambler
quote:
Critics could say that this is merely substituting an addiction to religion for an addiction to anything else...but I prefer such an addiction over a bland addiction to knowledge and statistical analysis. Its too non-personal and boring for me.
Well, sure.
Feel-Good Flash trumps Solid, Dependable Know-How in the immediate emotional gratification game.
But I've always thought that it's far, far better to persue ways to think well rather than to feel good.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 79 by Phat, posted 02-23-2007 10:15 AM Phat has not replied

  
nator
Member (Idle past 2170 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 142 of 199 (387226)
02-27-2007 8:29 AM
Reply to: Message 138 by riVeRraT
02-27-2007 7:07 AM


Re: Probabilities - not that hard, people
quote:
What about if you play the same number for 146 million times, what are your odds of winning?
This is for the given amount of tries, not infinity.
What are your odds, in a fair toss, of coming up heads in one coin toss?
What are your odds for each fair toss for 5 coin tosses?
What are your odds for each fair toss for 100 coin tosses?
You haven't actually answered this question yet, Rat.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 138 by riVeRraT, posted 02-27-2007 7:07 AM riVeRraT has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 144 by riVeRraT, posted 02-27-2007 4:38 PM nator has replied

  
nator
Member (Idle past 2170 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 150 of 199 (387324)
02-27-2007 9:54 PM
Reply to: Message 144 by riVeRraT
02-27-2007 4:38 PM


Re: Probabilities - not that hard, people
quote:
I don't see how anyone could figure out the odds for the question you quoted.
The odds are very, very, VERY simple.
I'll post them again, and I will highlight some words that, if you think about why they are highlighted, might serve as a hint to the solution.
What are your odds, in a fair toss, of coming up heads in one coin toss?
What are your odds for each fair toss for 5 coin tosses?
What are your odds for each fair toss for 100 coin tosses?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 144 by riVeRraT, posted 02-27-2007 4:38 PM riVeRraT has not replied

  
nator
Member (Idle past 2170 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 164 of 199 (388221)
03-05-2007 9:39 AM
Reply to: Message 161 by riVeRraT
03-05-2007 8:25 AM


why the reluctance, rat?
Dude, why are you so resistant to this?
The Monty Hall problem is quite difficult and most people (including me) get it wrong.
This one is far easier.
What are your odds, in a fair toss, of coming up heads in one coin toss?
What are your odds for each fair toss for 5 coin tosses?
What are your odds for each fair toss for 100 coin tosses?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 161 by riVeRraT, posted 03-05-2007 8:25 AM riVeRraT has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 175 by riVeRraT, posted 03-05-2007 11:25 PM nator has not replied

  
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