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Author Topic:   Jesus Tomb Found
Nimrod
Member (Idle past 4936 days)
Posts: 277
Joined: 06-22-2006


Message 182 of 242 (388453)
03-06-2007 2:52 AM


I cant find any good discussion on this.
The Discovery Channel was supposed to have a webpage where people could discuss this, but I couldnt find it.
Aside from this site (little has been discussed since the program aired), this blog (link below) is the only discussion I have found.It has lots (like 200-300) of posts, but its divided between Christians screaming about this documentary being some "Satanic plot" (as well as the tired old oft-repeated comments that the USA is Gods gift to the world due to its "Christian values" plus Christians are chanting typical slogans) and somehwat more productive non-Christian comments.
israelity bites: Bones of Jesus & son uncovered in Jerusalem? Airing new evidence
Thats all I could find discussion wise.
The web is full of Christian articles claiming the Discovery Channel is part of some anti-Christian plot.Here (below) is the most semi-productive ones from Christians that covers some of the typical fears and how this may effect the popular prophetic views held by fundamentalists (the angle is radical mind you, but still related to the issue of peoples reactions,this has NOTHING to do with science).
http://aoreport.com/mag/index.php?option=com_content&task...
The mainstream-ish media reports (1 before the program aired,and 1 after)can be represented by the 2 links below.Both are highly dismissive of the program.
ITV News : The Latest UK And Regional News (this one was before the program aired)
http://www.journalnow.com/servlet... (this one was after the program aired)
(UNRELATED NOTE:While discussing Discovery Channel documentaries , dont forget the most controversal one of all, one that got canceled 40 minutes before it aired, and all footage destroyed EXCEPT 1 copy that slipped through and found its way to the net
http://www.google.com/search... )
I saw the Jesus Tomb documentary but my wonderful cable company started running paid programming infomercials after the program ended.I suppose I will never get the chance to hear the "expert" commentary that followed the program.Hopefully they really were experts on the "Christian" side (that respond to the program with regards to the historical and archaeological issues), and not a bunch of "faith"-chanters.
From what I have seen, it will take time for us to digest the details, proofs, and accuracy of the programs presentation of data. I was left wondering about the statistical analysis of the possiblities of the names matching.I hope the after-program discussion covered that issue, as it wasnt completely clear to me.
It seems that the names matching (on the 5 tombs) were claimed to have a less than 1 in 600 chance of matching based on the frequency of the names and the odds against all 5 ossuaries containing the exact names of the family.And if the James Ossuary is proven to have come from there (and it seems a good possibility), then the odds are 1 in 30,000.
Its how they came to that statistical ratio that I seem to be confused over.
It would be impressive indeed if the statistics were based on the hypothetical amount of ossuaries ever deposited in a given location (Palestine or Jerusalem; the former would really be impressive but I think its the latter).
I dont know the exact numbers (and the statistical analysis is more complicated than this),but bear with me.....
That would mean that if say 100,000 ossuaries were hypothetically deposited in a given location from the 1st century (though only a small fraction found and examined),then the odds of all 5 names matching in a single tomb would be 1 in 60,000,000.With 100,000 tombs total, then that would be a 1 in 600 chance.
Impressive indeed.
And, if the James ossuary is included then the already overwhelming odds would prove this to be Jesus's remains by any reasonable standard.
But, are the odds based on actual number of recoverd tombs&ossuaries TO-DATE (which would make the ratio indicate something far more decisive in favor of the tomb actually containing Jesus, but due to a flawed statistical method which is based on a small amount of tombs ),which would actually be irrelevent? I would point out that the relevent number of burials is the total ever deposited, not the total discovered.Because the higher the number of tombs there are, the closer the odds are to finding an actual match (which this is clearly a "match" IMO)of names.And the less impressive the match would be.But with a small amount of tombs to factor in (and the tombs discovered are infact only a fraction of what was once and/or still is buried).
I need more confirmation that the 1 in 600 or 1 in 30,000 (with James) is based on sound reasoning.
Then,on the assumption that these odds are simply based on Jerusalem tombs, one has to wonder if all these names appearing in a single tomb is as impressive as 1in600 when all of tombs from larger Palestine are counted.
The stastical analysis is the issue and I havnt found any detailed discussion of all the factors included.Granted, I gave up searching on the web via search engines, because the discussion is larded by Christians screaming and chanting all kinds of non-relevant babble (damning everybody from archaeologists to Muslims, and not covering the actual issues at all).There is perhaps much more to the stastical analysis than I can think of.
My conclusion so far is that this "Jesus Tomb" is a powerful discovery and all but the most liberal forms of the Christian faith are severely challenged due to its discovery.I am also disgusted by the Christian reaction (the vocal fundamentalist Christians), which has represented the most dismissive and generally brain-dead form of reactionism one could ever imagine.The people that are most effected by this discovery should be spending the most effort in properly analysing it.Instead, the Christian's comments that I have read throughout the web have demonstrated nothing short of psychotic behavior in their responces.Damning everybody and anybody as "satanic* , and most of those they damn have *nothing* to do with this discovery (Muslims, Discovery channel,professors etc.).Infact archaeologists shouldnt even be blamed because they never pushed this discovery.The journalist who discovered this "Jesus Tomb" made it a point on the program that archaeologists and academics simply sat on this discovery despite its significance.
The Discovery Channel doesnt persue some anti-American, anti Christian agenda. The documentary was an important discovery and Christians should welcome such an airing.If the truth of the past is discovered-and this is actually the ossuary of jesus- then good (truth is truth); if this isnt true (as being the actual ossuary of Jesus)then the 100 million++++ fundamentalists can easily EDUCATE themselves on the historical/archaeological issues and then gladly show every last person on the planet (via private and polite conversation) why this isnt the actual ossuary.
Edited by AdminAsgara, : shortened long urls to fix page width

Replies to this message:
 Message 183 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 3:31 AM Nimrod has replied
 Message 200 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-06-2007 1:38 PM Nimrod has replied

  
Nimrod
Member (Idle past 4936 days)
Posts: 277
Joined: 06-22-2006


Message 185 of 242 (388464)
03-06-2007 5:36 AM
Reply to: Message 183 by PaulK
03-06-2007 3:31 AM


Re: I cant find any good discussion on this.
(I have to say that using the tombs found is a valid measure - there's no reason to suppose that the names made the tomb more likely to be found ! - but a smaller sample means less confidence in the results).
The issue is that there is only a 1 in 600,000 (if my quick reading was correct, I will closely follow more links later)chance of all 5 names matching up.
I feel that the 5 names are close enough to be a match to how the actual names could/would have been spelled.(there is somewhat of a question as to whether some of the 5 names were actual relatives and/or people likley to be buried with Jesus,though).
Why am I saying that the tombs *found* arent the issue , but the total amount of tombs (at least in Jerusalem)that ever existed (ist century) are what the statistic should be based on?
Because, the more tombs, the lower the ratio odds are (or the less strong the odds are)of being able to say that this is Jesus.Since there seems to be a 1 in 600,000 chance (I may be reading this wrong)of all 5 names matching , then we need to know how unlikly/likly the chances would be of a match.
If we accept the names are a match, then all that is left is to see what the chances are of more people happening to have these names beyond Jesus and his family.And buried in tombs.
We really need to know if there were only 1000 tombs ever used for ossuaries, or 6000.Thats the difference between a 600-1 match or a 100-1 match.
I also have to wonder how many 1st century Jerusalem families ever existed period, including those too poor to afford a tomb with ossuraries.
And what about near-by suburbs.
The fact that some of the "few"(?) tombs discovered (out of the total amount including those not uncovered)showed a match is impressive, but what of those that werent discovered.
If one believes the Gospel account then Jesus didnt have an ossuary after ressurecting and transfiguring.Was his family from Jerusalem (or would some of them have been from there when they died)? Would they have been likly to have been buried there.Lets assume they could have and then lets assume they could not have (at the same time,lets get our minds on a parallel track).Lets assume they could have been buried anywhere.
Lets assume that odds will suggest that of *all* families (poor ,illiterate, literate, wealthy) in the entirety of Palestine (not just Jerusalem), there *could* have been another with the same name's as Jesus and his family.Less than a 5-1 to chance perhaps. (I have no clue)
We need to, however,isolate the odds to just Jerusalem.
Now,lets get back to the issue I am responding to (your quote at top Paul).
One could say, well we only dug up 100 tombs and found the names, therefor the 1 in 600,000 chance means that this was a 1 in 6000 find. We already have given that a match was made. We would then wonder how rare it is over-all.
Even if we find 1 more match(say a 2nd cluster was found with the same 5 names in a single tomb), then I have to wonder what the odds are of at least 1 of those being Jesus.This would be an interesting lightening strikes twice scenario.
The issue always gets back to how many tombs there were that ever existed during that time period.
Our minds are still on the parallel tracks.
1 track says Jesus doesnt have a tomb (at least not with physical remains, and surely not with his family while his remains were dumped in an ossuary)and that his family could have been buried in Jerusalem (or somewhere else).This track assumes that another un-related family could have been buried in this location.
Another teack says that this "Jesus Tomb" *is* the Jesus ofthe Bible and his family.
The latter is quite possible.based on the liklyhood of the name cluster.
But the issue is the ratio based on the *TOTAL* amount of families who existed in Jerusalem and how closly that compares to the 1 in 600,000 odds of all 5 names matching. (or perhaps the total who could afford tombs)
Just because 1 match was already found with a small sample doesnt mean we base the ratio on only the tombs found.And to be honest, I dont know what "in existence" means exactly, as stupid as that makes me sound (scroll about 80% down on your link).
http://fisher.utstat.toronto.edu/andrey/OfficeHrs.txt
"in existence" as-in ones we know exist or ones that are likley to exist?
Regardless, the odds are quite strong that this is actually the jesus tomb already.And even if further statistical adjustments bring the 600-1 ration down much lower (big *IF*), then I would bet that the odds will still be several dozen to 1 in favor of this still being Jesus.I would still call that presumptive "best-case scenario" (from my conservative Christian perspective which possibly borders on fundamentalism at times)reasonably strong evidence of this tomb actually being one that holds Jesus.
Edited by MightyPlaceNimrod, : No reason given.
Edited by MightyPlaceNimrod, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 183 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 3:31 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 186 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 6:25 AM Nimrod has replied

  
Nimrod
Member (Idle past 4936 days)
Posts: 277
Joined: 06-22-2006


Message 187 of 242 (388473)
03-06-2007 7:13 AM
Reply to: Message 186 by PaulK
03-06-2007 6:25 AM


Re: I cant find any good discussion on this.
And the odds are 600:1 not 600,000:1.
Did I say 600,000 to 1 in the Jerusalem Tomb context?
Perhaps.
But, what I meant was that the name match clusters would only happen about 1 out of 600,000 times , and with 1000 "in-existence" 1st century Jerusalem tombs with enough inscribed ossuaries, then there is a 1 in 600 match ratio right now.
I really want to hold off on saying this (since I havnt had time to research this, I actually am quite busy now despite being on the computer)but I seem to remember the odds actually being divided by 4 already to account for possible errors (a statistical method) so the 1 in 600,000 may have actually been 1 in 2,400,000.
I havnt studied this much.
But so far, I cant really see how this cant be very very strongly considered as Jesus's tomb.
Nothing would delight me more than there being all sorts of holes punched into this conclusion.But,it seems to me that the only really problematic issue right now (for the conslusion that this is Jesus's tomb) is the situation of people having trouble swallowing what seems like clear-albeit shocking-evidence.The DNA evidence of James also seems to have people in a state of shock and inability to believe their own eyes.
I have figured that the only way reasonable Christians may be able to save their religion is to find a way to justify that the Jesus in this tomb was a brother of Jesus though with the same name.But that may not exactly be "reasonable" though.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 186 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 6:25 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 188 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 7:44 AM Nimrod has replied
 Message 189 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 7:46 AM Nimrod has not replied

  
Nimrod
Member (Idle past 4936 days)
Posts: 277
Joined: 06-22-2006


Message 190 of 242 (388484)
03-06-2007 8:10 AM
Reply to: Message 188 by PaulK
03-06-2007 7:44 AM


Ill need to wait till I can research this further
For now.
The DNA "matching" issue is the James Ossuary matching the Jesus Ossuary.It was a perfect match.From what I saw.I look forward to the scrutiny and the rest of the details.
The 600,000:1 are the odds of all 5 names matching. (thats before James is factored in)
Then they are divided by the number of Jerusalem tombs (named tombs).
That is where the 600:1 conclusion is reached.
Again, more needs to be known.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 188 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 7:44 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 191 by PaulK, posted 03-06-2007 8:38 AM Nimrod has not replied
 Message 192 by Brian, posted 03-06-2007 9:20 AM Nimrod has not replied

  
Nimrod
Member (Idle past 4936 days)
Posts: 277
Joined: 06-22-2006


Message 211 of 242 (388628)
03-06-2007 6:46 PM
Reply to: Message 200 by Hyroglyphx
03-06-2007 1:38 PM


Nemesis_juggernaut- Message #200
Thanks for your responce, and I will check out you link, but before I do that, let me respond to some of your comments.I must say that I have been left very confused by a significant amount of what you said.
They employed a statistician from the University of Toronto. What he had done is taken all of the known ossuaries in Jerusalem and juxtaposed them by the five names in alleged Jesus tomb. He discovered that names like Joseph, Mary, and Jesus were very common in that time. I believe the odds were something like anywhere between 1:5 and 1:40 people in Israel had those names. However, the name "Mariamne" was quite unique, even in Aramaic. Then he calculated what the odds were of all of those names being in the same family. The odds then jumped a bit higher. Here is how he did it. I don't think the hyperlink will directly link you to the statistics page. If not, click on "Enter the Tomb." Then go to "supporting evidence," on the lower lefthand corner. Then click on "statistical evidence."
Let me try it this way.Ill respond to you first, then later I will read the link.Maybe that is flawed, but allow me to go this route please.
Here's the problem though. They only mentioned six of the twelve names in the tomb. They neglected to mention or factor in Matia, Judas, Shimon, Miriam, and Salome who were also found at the site in their statistical figures, even though Shimon and Judas (Jude) are in fact listed in the Bible as two out of four brothers of Jesus.
How is that flawed?It sounds like a match between the Bible and the site. That would mean that long and unlikely odds were met.
The issue of 12 names does offer the possibility for contradictions though.Were there any?
Secondly, it has been claimed by a few sources who helped with the expedition that Jacobovici neglected to relay that the tomb carried the bones of about 35 different individuals, and about half were from these ossuaries.
VERY interesting.
So about 16-19 were from these ossusaries?
How many ossuraries were there?
You said there were 12 names.
This is data that can be used for sure.
Thirdly, they had only one dissenting opinion on the actual program, but he and a few of his colleagues assert that Jacobivici is too tempted to think clearly because the translation of the names on the ossuaries may not be accurate.
The program spin doesnt matter much.The data does.
The quaternary example is that the sole discovery of the DNA analysis was that Mariamne and Yeshu were not maternally related. The speculation then becomes that Mariamne and Yeshu must have been married because why would a non-family member be in the same tomb unless they were married. But that does not mean any one was married to another, nor does it mean that if Mariamne was married to anyone it was specifically to Yeshu. It could have meant marital ties to any other male found in the tomb. Therefore, the DNA evidence is literally the weakest link they have. Nor does it mean in any way, shape, or form, that its Jesus or Mary Magdalene inside those ossuaries.
And how does that weaken the case?
From what I see, the names match. The case is quite strong that this is the Jesus tomb. What leads ou to figure this to be a contradiction with the Bible? Quite the contrary.
There is no substitute for the fact that the controversy surrounding Jesus' resurrection was a top priority of that day. Everyone wanted to know where Jesus' body was. That would have come to light immediately if they not only knew where his body was in the temporary burial site, but even more so after the fact when they placed his bones in the ossuary. Aside from which, archaeologists have been scouring Israel for centuries trying to find his body or his family members. This particular tomb was discovered in 1980. This isn't a recent discovery. Rabbi's even installed a tube in the ossuary, which is now custom, on every ancient ossuary site. There is no one with greater vested interests in demolishing the resurrection story than strict adherents to Judaism who view Jesus as a false messiah-- and yet, they didn't.
Do you have any evidence that people believed in the ressurection before the Temple destruction in 70AD?
I know you and I would like to believe that, but is there significant amount mainstream scholarship and extant historical documentation to prove such? Or any at all?
It very possible-based on historical documentation-(though my faith will fill in the gap between c30AD and 70AD) that people didnt believe in the ressurection till after 70AD.The destruction of Temple records and chaos may not have allowed people to know where tombs were buried when the ressurection "myth" was "invented".
Im not saying I believe that, but it is a historical possibility.
We need to keep our minds on several alternate routes when there are various historical possibilities based on scanty historical fragments.
Archaeologists havnt exactly been falling all over themselves looking for Jesus in a common tomb actually,despite what you have said.(common in the sense that it is like most tombs with many ossuaries, though the "common" people of that day couldnt afford it)Infact their attitude has been that the name was common, and it wouldnt be worthwile to look in such a place.Ditto for his family members.
Discovery came out with a program about a year ago when the gospel of Judas was found in Egypt and the Da Vinci Code was a hot topic. They alleged that Mary Magdalene and her son, borne of Jesus, fled to France and started their own line. How, then, can Mary and the alleged son of Jesus, Judas, be buried in an ossuary in Jerusalem? Did they recant their previous sentiment? Did they retract their previous claims? No. They simply didn't mention it. So was Mary in France or in Israel?
The Discovery Channel has an official platform that says that they accept the historical details of a fictional 4th century manuscript when it refers to events from the turn of the first century AD? Do they also have a platform that accepts 4th century fictional writings that covers the late BCE period?
They took Dan Browns own admitted fictional work and decided to believe it?
You conclude that based on a single program they ran?
I didnt even know the Discovery Channel was the issue here.But, if an occasional program makes their "Statement Of Faith" , then they are much more conservative on biblical issues than 99% of mainstream academics. I have a VHS set fo their documentary Pharoahs and Kings by David Rohl.It actually supports the historical reliability Exodus and Conquest event.
The odd thing is that I always assumed this, as well as other programs, didnt reflect their beliefs.
But if you insist on using an isolated program as reflecting their beliefs, then this is further evidence that this "Jesus Tomb" issue is really the tomb of the Jesus from the Bible.Because the Discovery channel is apparantly ultra-conservative with regards to the issue of Biblical reliability.Unknown to me prior to reading post #200 I must admit.
Lastly, the buzz concerning the James ossuary was a compelling piece of evidence for many Christians because it corroborated the account of Jesus. But it was quickly deemed as a forgery by naysayers and it fell into obscurity. But now they are changing their tune. Now they say that the James ossuary was not "entirely" a fraud. They say that only the last part of the inscription is a forgery, but the rest is authentic based on patina evidence that places James' ossuary within the tomb found in Jerusalem. I guess as long as they believe that Jesus is dead, that James' ossuary no longer poses a threat.
The tables have turned indeed but it has to do with fundamentalist Christian conclusions. The entire body of non-Christian posters and especially scholars (aside from Biblical Archaeology Review)have held firm in their conclusions on the James Ossuary.The only exceptions (like Shanks of BAR)have *nothing* to do with this Jesus Tomb issue.
Nemesis
Is it possible that this is Joseph and Mary's family tomb? Sure, that's humanly possible. Is there any actual evidence, aside from speculation and barely even a nugget of circumstantial evidence linking any of the biblical characters to that site? No.
Nimrod
My conclusion so far is that this "Jesus Tomb" is a powerful discovery and all but the most liberal forms of the Christian faith are severely challenged due to its discovery.
Nemesis
I don't think the challenge substantiates any worry on the part of Christians any more than the Di Vinci Code did.
The Da Vinci code was fictional and has ZERO percent relevance to this Jesus Tomb issue.The Jesus Tomb is a 100% extant archaeological discovery from the first century AD.
Perhaps one can argue that this contemporary Jesus Tomb matching the names of figures around Jesus in the Gospels is due to the late date (compared to Jesus's deat c30AD)of the Gospels giving fictional names, and thus the unlikely name match is just "circumstantial"?
I sure wouldnt make that argument, but its the best I can come up with to match reality with your above statement.
If there is any actual outrage over this amongst Christians, none of which I've seen, then perhaps they need to look at it from your perspective. However, perhaps you are not seeing it from the Christian vantage point. For years, decades, and centuries, people have been preoccupied with trying debunk Jesus in various forms and theories. Why they care so much is anybody's guess. The disconfirming evidence is usually nothing more than a paper tiger, used in a way to rhetorically refute the claims made by their opponents. This new theory is no different. There is a whole lot of fluff about this whole thing and makes it puff up larger than what it really is. They are literally basing it all on a few names to say, oh yes, this is Jesus of Nazareth. The DNA evidence is nil. The statistical evidence is of no consequence, because even supposing it was accurate, 1:600 are odds that good to me. If the lottery were those odds, even I would play, everyday.
Then this tomb has taken that "1" match in 600.The fact is that the 1 in 600 is a conservative estimate.The 1 in 2400 is a moderate estimate. That means that of all the Jerusalem tombs,you wouldnt have a chance of finding these names.You could have 600 more Jerusalems (with the same amount of tombs)and the odds of finding these names would be just 1 IN ALL 600.Thats the conservative estimate.
That would mean that you would need roughly 1000 Jerusalems for 2 matches.That would make the odds likely that there could be another family match this cluster of names, and then that Jesus could be the one who ressurected.
The point is, this is just another attempt to malign Jesus, whether it was Cameron or Jacobivici, who have a flair for the dramatic. So, perhaps your "disgust" is extremely misguided. I'm a Christian and I'm not disgusted by this effort. If anything, it makes me chuckle. I don't let things like this give me a bad hair day. Perhaps you should adopt a similar lifestyle and leave your disgust for things that are truly disgusting.
This is an archaeological discovery,plain and simple.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 200 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-06-2007 1:38 PM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
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