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Author Topic:   Pascal's Wager - Any Way to Live a Life
Archer Opteryx
Member (Idle past 3619 days)
Posts: 1811
From: East Asia
Joined: 08-16-2006


Message 6 of 126 (432758)
11-08-2007 1:50 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by iceage
11-07-2007 8:18 PM


you bet
Great question, iceage.
For the good of the order, here's an article on Pascal's Wager:
Pascal’s Wager (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
As the article notes, Pascal gets a lot of credit historically for making his case on pragmatic rather than a priori grounds. It's a refreshing approach in context. And honest, insofar as Pascal admits up front that he can't logically prove the existence of God.
In practice, though, the wager barters away that gain in honesty by taking for granted the premise of voluntarism--the idea that belief is an act of will.
I've never seen a compelling case made, or even attempted, for willed belief. People certainly can and do will ignorance in order to protect cherished beliefs. But the very reason they build this hedge is because they recognize that belief is involuntary. They sense, correctly, that new information could affect their perspective in ways they don't control. The only place they can control this process is at the gate. So they throw the bolt.
As a way of life I'd say the wager isn't honest at all. Any omniscient deity worthy of the description would surely spot the difference between belief and 'belief.' I think people who invoke the wager are either (1) theists who believe on other grounds and use the wager to rationalize that faith, or (2) agnostics.
Can belief be willed? I'd be interested in hearing anyone who assumes this premise make a rational case for it. If it can't, we're left with the fact that Pascal's wager is not about belief. It is a probability discussion.
__________
Edited by Archer Opterix, : html.
Edited by Archer Opterix, : typo repair.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by iceage, posted 11-07-2007 8:18 PM iceage has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by Rrhain, posted 11-08-2007 2:08 AM Archer Opteryx has replied

  
Archer Opteryx
Member (Idle past 3619 days)
Posts: 1811
From: East Asia
Joined: 08-16-2006


Message 11 of 126 (432770)
11-08-2007 5:43 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Rrhain
11-08-2007 2:08 AM


Re: you bet
Rrhain:
If you put someone in a room with other people, all of whom are insisting that a certain event happened, he'll start to convince himself it actually did, creating "memories" of the event.
I've heard of these studies and it's all very interesting. But I still don't understand how the researchers distinguish personal conviction from singing for one's supper.
What criteria do they use?
Now, is this "will"? I'd say yes. Our will to be one of the crowd and not stand out is what does it.
Will, sure. But is it belief?
It looks like the real belief is that one should fit in with the crowd. The rest is tactics and pretend.
How do the researchers distinguish the difference for the purposes of the study?
___________
Edited by Archer Opterix, : replacing lost text.
Edited by Archer Opterix, : clarity.
Edited by Archer Opterix, : brev.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Rrhain, posted 11-08-2007 2:08 AM Rrhain has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by Rrhain, posted 11-08-2007 6:31 AM Archer Opteryx has replied

  
Archer Opteryx
Member (Idle past 3619 days)
Posts: 1811
From: East Asia
Joined: 08-16-2006


Message 26 of 126 (432935)
11-09-2007 5:20 AM
Reply to: Message 12 by Rrhain
11-08-2007 6:31 AM


Re: you bet
Rrhain:
Are you asking how the researchers determined that the subjects weren't lying about having experienced the non-event?
Right. What criteria did they use to distinguish a genuine belief from outward compliance?
Was brain activity being monitored as subjects were speaking? You don't tell us.
You'd have to read the writeups for the full details.
Any idea where I might find these writeups? Can you share a link or an author's name? Institution? Publication? Approximate date? It helps with the Googling.
All I have right now, going from your post, is beliefs, memories, and scientists. That brings up 160,000 items. Some interesting press reports are showing up in the pile, but I see nothing yet like the study you described.
Unless you're suggesting the researchers were fools, do you have any particular reason that they would be unable to make such a determination?
I am asking what criteria researchers used in conducting a scientific study. It's a fair question.
________
Edited by Archer Opterix, : typo repair.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by Rrhain, posted 11-08-2007 6:31 AM Rrhain has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 37 by Rrhain, posted 11-09-2007 9:54 PM Archer Opteryx has not replied

  
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