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Author Topic:   Global Futurism. A discussion of impending issues
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 215 of 241 (448351)
01-13-2008 2:37 AM
Reply to: Message 214 by purpledawn
01-12-2008 7:48 PM


Re: Virtual Arsenal
quote:
So the idea behind the virtual arsenal is that to attack they wouldn't be building the weapons until war was declared?
No. The idea behind a virtual arsenal revolves around an few ideas. Firstly, without weapons ready to go, no nation can mount an first strike attack. Secondly, without assembled weapons, the threat of terrorists stealing them and using them is rather low depending on how far one takes virtual. In the case of just mere disassembly, the threat is still present, in the case where we destroy key components, or lock them up like Fort Knox, much safer and the ultimate anti-theft is down to machinery, tools and knowledge. You can't steal what does not exist. Third, the threat of MAD still exists as modern nations can build weapons relatively quickly. Japan can make an nuclear weapon system in less then 6 months, as they have the missile technology, nuclear technology and available machinery. The great thing about virtual is that the costs are low, MAD still exists and terror theft is low not to mention de-escalation of tensions. I can't see how this is an bad thing, aside from an alien invasion. But let's not go there.
First of all you have to remember that Nukes are relatively useless in war. The only reason one would rebuild them from a state of virtual arsenal to real is if they got nuked. And with an good global accounting system, and an stronger IAEA, any nation that is reconstituting its weapons program will be quickly detected and measures taken against it. It's not like you can take the parts from hundreds of nukes and make them all operation in a day.
And I forgot about this, one major reason that big powers should be pushing for global virtual arsenals is because it makes their conventional militaries hegemonic. We all saw how Iraq's military was crushed in Desert Storm. Now imagine that forever. I don't agree that should be a reason to do it, but it's out there.
quote:
So countries without the equipment also wouldn't be able to buy the weapons intact.
That too. Without actual weapons in existence, a nation who wants a nuke would have to do what Iran or Pakistan did. And they'd be noticed assuming we could get the nuclear export groups to actually agree to more draconian and stricter export conditions. You can't buy an weapon that doesn't exist and even if you could buy one disassembled, if Russia and the US destroyed the shaped charges necessary for a implosion weapon to function, all states would have would be dirty bombs, remember you cannot make an gun type nuclear weapon with plutonium. The sheer level of sophistication in a shaped charge for a modern implosion bomb is beyond most people's comprehension. If an single charge is off by less then 1/10th of a millimeter, the weapon will not work and you need several of these charges. There is a reason every developing nation that builds its first nuke does so in the gun type.
quote:
It has been a bit difficult following this...discussion. I do realize that your mention of Russia was for discussion purposes only, not that you feel attack is imminent.
This discussion is beyond convoluted. Thanks for realizing that Russia was just a tool for discussion, not an actual nuclear threat. Now Russia is the context of the energy markets is a threat, but that's for a different thread.
And if we only did one thing to help save the future of mankind, it would be to get off hair trigger. Currently both the US and Russia are still on hair trigger but aimed at the ocean. It doesn't take a nuclear scientist to figure out that re-targeting won't take more then a few seconds.
Edited by obvious Child, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 214 by purpledawn, posted 01-12-2008 7:48 PM purpledawn has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 217 by purpledawn, posted 01-13-2008 11:12 AM obvious Child has replied

  
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 219 of 241 (448445)
01-13-2008 4:11 PM
Reply to: Message 216 by molbiogirl
01-13-2008 6:01 AM


Re: Can we get off the Nuclear Holocaust Schtick for a while?
I think your biggest problem in this thread is that you assume people cannot come to certain conclusions on their own or take existing ideas and possibly make them better or study something and find out its flaws. You keep harping about citations but you can't address arguments on your own. So what if there is no citation? Does that make an argument false? No.
quote:
Forgive me if I don't accord your opinion the same respect as that of a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute.
I suspect you'd require anyone independent of on their job to require that. But the simple fact is, you are unable of actually discussing the subject here. Encyclopedia fights hold no value.
quote:
A: Obvious child.
Obviously not.
quote:
The Brookings Institute disagrees.
The Brookings Institute works from an liberal point of view, where liberal in this context is very different from liberal in political ideas. The liberal idea doesn't exactly have an great track record as it is partially to blame for the failure of Africa to develop.
quote:
Dozens of think tanks disagree. For example, the Council on Foreign Relations.
1/10th is still easily enough to overcome missile defense. 100 missiles each with 12 MRVs is 1,200 nukes. And Russia has always had a good understanding of bypassing missile defense. So in reality, that's more then 8,000 targets, of which 1,200 are viable. Game over for missile shield.
quote:
A missile shield is a defensive, not offensive, system. It is not used "against" anybody.
Now that is comedy. A missile shield prevents an secondary strike. Therefore eliminate MAD and allowing an first strike which is clearly offensive. A missile shield makes formerly unusable nuclear weapons usable. Tell me how that is not offensive instead of just pretending that I never made the comment. Your argument doesn't even make any sense. Here's the point about my comment on your analysis (it doesn't exist). If the missile shield was defensive, then China and Russia wouldn't be pissed off at the US. Purely defensive weapons don't bring up huge outrage. Without the threat of nuclear retaliation on the homeland, the US is largely free to fire weapons as it pleases. Shields are offensive weapons as they shield the attack from attacks that normally would have deterred them. It's actually good thing that the shield is an fraud. The last time we tried to do this it put us several hundred billion in the hole and we got virtually nothing out of it.
quote:
Ah. Not only do you refuse to provide evidence, you refuse to answer questions.
Like yourself. At least I understand this concept. You can't address my points.
quote:
Nope.
From my last post: It's simple really. When a real threat is present, a real defense is necessary.
Therefore you believe that the 20+ incidents that almost lead to accidental exchanges did not occur? Or you'll just pretend I never asked this as you did with the vast majority of questions I no longer care if you answer.
Before you lie and distort what I've said, this isn't about deliberate use, it's about accidental use. In some degree, the US and Russia already acknowledge this will a retargeting of weapons into empty space. However, the threat is still there as all one has to do is retarget with the last known coordinates.
quote:
For a realist, you sure spend a lot of time living in a fantasy world where every nuclear state and every potential nuclear state is willing to completely disarm.
Could you define "completely disarm?"
Because under the shape charged argument, the only piece missing is the charge itself. The weapon is still in reality.
quote:
I've done a bit of looking, and no one, absolutely no one, is discussing this as even a remote possibility.
And no one ever considered the Nunn-Lugar CTR even a remote possibility in the past. Furthermore, everything in history was not even considered an remote possibility at some time. I'll repeat my last comment to you in a prior post as you seem to be unable to get out of it.
I think your biggest problem in this thread is that you assume people cannot come to certain conclusions on their own or take existing ideas and possibly make them better or study something and find out its flaws. You keep harping about citations but you can't address arguments on your own. So what if there is no citation? Does that make an argument false? No.
Not everything in this world has been thought of or invented, new things, new ideas, new innovation, new modifications are still possible. Unless you think like the French...
quote:
Nuclear Weapons in a Transformed World is a pro-VNA (virtual nuclear arsenal) and available on books.google. All the author suggests is decoupling the weapons from their delivery vehicles and dismantling the weapons.
And I'm taking it an step further.
It's called content creation. Yahoo, Youtube, and others are doing it. Sometimes it's modifying what someone else thought of. Sometimes it's something entirely new.
I'm asking you to argue why it is a bad idea. What you seem intent on doing it just arguing if someone else had thought of it before. That's worthless. Completely worthless.
quote:
A la Pakistan, as I mentioned earlier.
But the problem with Pakistan is that the weapons are still operation if recombined. More weapons = more risk of theft = more terroristic usage.
quote:
I much prefer the informed opinion of -- oh, let's say a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute -- rather than that of a 25 year old who's read one too many Ian Fleming novels.
I think your biggest problem in this thread is that you assume people cannot come to certain conclusions on their own or take existing ideas and possibly make them better or study something and find out its flaws. You keep harping about citations but you can't address arguments on your own. So what if there is no citation? Does that make an argument false? No.
And if you thought that was really true, you'd be able to disprove me. I'm still waiting.
quote:
Again, for a realist, you spend an awful lot of time in la la land.
I should report you for that. Why would it be true? All you can do is insult me. Not present any reason why that is wrong.
I'm asking you to present an reasoned argument why my idea is bad. You apparently are unwilling to do this. Why?
The US is fully capable of making new weapons quickly. Why wouldn't MAD still exist? If you nuke us, expect to get nuked back. How is that not MAD?
quote:
You have yet to show that mylar decoys are a problem for the systems I highlighted in Message 195.
Don't you get it, Obvious? Your bare assertions mean nothing.
Your opinion is worthless.
Yet you can't even refute anything. I have worthless opinions, but all you can do is throw ad homenins at me. I see how it is. Interceptors work to attack the missile in flight. ICBMs are actually in space. Those weapons you talked about, are not capable of space flight. By the time the weapon is leaving space, it is virtually too late to shoot it down. I already mentioned how the tracking speeds are incapable of hitting that as many of them have problems with much slower targets. Ignoring this does not make it go away, even though you'd love that to be true.
quote:
Um, is a war "similar enough" for you? Are incoming enemy missiles "unplanned enough" for you?
So you want to test the weapon when an nuclear tipped enemy missile is coming? Kind of cocky isn't that? Mind if the target is your city? Not a single test has even resembled what an enemy will do. What kind of test measures the viability of a system when everyone knows when the missile is coming, where it will be and everything about it?
You don't understand this subject!
quote:
Nope.
http://commdocs.house.gov/...y/has280010.000/has280010_0.HTM
NOW THAT IS COMEDY.
That entirely proves my point about you not understanding. There is no EMP issue here. The warhead is not hitting ANYTHING except empty space. The entire point of that senario is to blind radar due to the huge amount of radiation and static left after the weapon is used. Without radar to guide the interceptors, there is no interceptor threat to the second missile!
How can you call my opinion worthless when you can't even understand the points I'm making?
This is comedy.
quote:
Only those within line of sight.
Not a problem. The issue is merely blinding radar due to radiation in the area. You don't have to destroy any radar systems. it is akin to popping a balloon next to someone's ears. They can't hear for a period of time.
quote:
Short answer, no. Military systems are hardened to HEMP/EMP.
Therefore, the rest of your scenario is moot.
Again more comedy. EMP is irrelevant here. Nothing I was discussing was talking about disabling anything. It was just about putting enough static, radiation and noise into the area where the missile would be flying to blind radar so that they could not guide interceptors. You completely missed this point. Hence why I find it amusing since you're so cocky.
quote:
Again. Your opinion is worthless.
But you can't refute any of it. Calling me names does not equate to a good argument. if you have a argument as to why those system will work present it. Don't just rely on ad homeni. That is really all you've done here. Call me names.
quote:
Oh no, Obvious. No no no. His uninformed, unresearched opinion is just as valid as your uninformed, unresearched opinion.
Seriously. You say that but in this thread alone
1) You completely missed the point on numerous issues
2) Relied heavily on name calling
3) And ignored points
You haven't even refuted anything I've said at all!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 216 by molbiogirl, posted 01-13-2008 6:01 AM molbiogirl has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 221 by molbiogirl, posted 01-13-2008 7:33 PM obvious Child has replied

  
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 220 of 241 (448448)
01-13-2008 4:25 PM
Reply to: Message 217 by purpledawn
01-13-2008 11:12 AM


Re: Virtual Arsenal
quote:
Getting away from hair-trigger would eliminate the problem of a leader going mad or accidental issues.
I agree. Others don't seem to think so. Others seem intent on not discussing it period. Odd don't you say?
quote:
Would it be possible to ensure that all had complied with the reduction?
It would take work but yes. In the cold war we were able to pin points Russian missiles with 50s technology. I seriously doubt we couldn't do that now. Plus states would have an large financial incentive to do so as maintaining these facilities, manpower and weapons is expensive.
quote:
I found it interesting that mylar balloons could function as countermeasures. I think many forget that while we are creating weapons, others create countermeasures to thwart our efforts; just as we do to counter their weapons.
Many people lack the education in this field. There are an whole host of ways to take down missile defense. Attacking ground based radar with strike teams (heck, the US does this), hitting the silos, merely overwhelming the system with missiles, including duds. If you look at the previous attempt to build missile shields, the countermeasures produced by the Soviets were vastly cheaper and some believe that the Soviets just let us waste billions on something that couldn't work. Reagan put us hundreds of billions in the hole.
The problem with ABLs is that they are easily shot down. For them to work, they need to be relatively close to the target as they only work against short range and tactical ballistic missiles, and the defensive measures of a jumbo jet are pretty pathetic against an jet fighter or simple an SAM. ABLs were never designed to target ICBM. I could see ABLs working against short range missiles. But not ICBMs. It strikes me that ABLs would be best used against Iran, where its missiles are largely tactical in range. Furthermore to cover the country with 747 armed ABLs is not practical. Remember that one of the WWII bombs was airbursted and the damage done was tremendous. And remember that ICBMs are coming in at extremely fast rates, around 7 km/s or around 18,000 mph. And when they eventually figure out how to make course changes in flight, all bets are off.
quote:
Who determines that one is dominant when no military is taken into account?
That would seem to go to economics then.
Plus there's the whole issue of living up to our agreements in the NPT...which we have more or less been flaunting.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 217 by purpledawn, posted 01-13-2008 11:12 AM purpledawn has not replied

  
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 224 of 241 (448761)
01-15-2008 4:10 AM
Reply to: Message 221 by molbiogirl
01-13-2008 7:33 PM


Re: Can we get off the Nuclear Holocaust Schtick for a while?
quote:
I know you're not joking, but seriously, Obvious. A shield as an offensive weapon? Not unless you conk somebody on the head with it.
Offensive weapons: weapons used in the act of attacking.
Defensive weapons: weapons used to defend from or resist attack. Weapons used for protection from harm or danger.
Let's try this in a super dumbed down version.
The US does not attack the USSR with nukes because it will be nuked back. With an shield in place, the threat of a 2nd strike no longer exists. Therefore the US is now FREE to ATTACK where it was PREVIOUSLY DETERRED. A missile shield removes the state of MAD, therefore allowing an attack that previously would not have occurred to now occur. This isn't difficult.
Calling me names does not make an good argument.
quote:
People get pissed off for all kinds of reasons. China says it's pissed off because "global stability" will be disrupted. TRANSLATION: You have one and we don't. Russia has calmed down now that we've offered to let them in under the shield.
Do you even underst....nm I know the answer to that. A missile shield, at least in theory if it ever works, removes MAD therefore disrupting global stability. Russia calmed down because they are no longer at risk from the disruption of MAD.
quote:
Thus, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute arguing that pre-delegation DOES NOT exist is more credible, not less.
You didn't even bother to read your own article did you?
No where in the article does it even discuss pre-delegation!
Seriously! Did you think I wouldn't check?
You've gone from copy-pasting partial relevant issues without understanding them to just posting things hoping I wouldn't read them.
Sad.
quote:
Pull some more numbers out your ass, didja?
Your opinion is worthless.
It's a common fact that ICBMs typically have around 6~12 MRVs. Go look it up. If I'm wrong, you should be able to prove it instead of just calling me names. Furthermore, Russia's weapons were at time after the SALT treaties around 10,000 weapons. 1/10 of that isn't far from what I gave.
quote:
Sometimes it's something entirely new.
OMG. I am blessed, truly blessed, to be in your presence, Obvious.
A 25 year old who is going to change nuclear policy via Youtube!
Your complete and absolute failure to address an single point I have made is far more telling then you relying on childish comments. Say all the immature things you want, it doesn't change the fact that you can't refute anything I've said and that you are exponentially ignoring points. I clearly have the high ground here.
quote:
Missile defense was 100% effective in Iraq.
Against surface to surface. Big difference between that and an 18,000 mph ICBM. You can make all of these comments, but when I keep showing you don't understand, how do you think you can compete?
quote:
The other systems, including the MTHEL, have been tested under "field conditions". The METHEL is going to be used in combat conditions in 2008.
Against an entirely different target. You would not use a .223 round against an Hind, likewise you wouldn't use a METHEL against an ICBM. Different weapons call for different defenses. What we do not have is an defense against the countermeasures in an ICBM.
quote:
HEMP/EMP is of grave concern. I brought it up because you ignored it.
Not really. EMP isn't that important as you have stated military equipment is shielded from direct exposure. What we do not have an solution to is the radiation and static from an space based explosion, your own source even states that. Blinded radar = blinded interceptors. That was my entire point which you seemed to have either pretend not to exist or did not understand.
quote:
The radar that supports our missile defense does not rely on a single (or even a group of) satellites. Knocking out a few will not cripple the system.
Again, it's not about knocking them physically out. It's merely about blinding them for an few minutes. I gave the example about popping a balloon next to someone's head. I suppose an more accurate analogy would be to blast heavy metal and trying to communicate with someone.
quote:
Aw. Did Obvious get his feelings hurt?
Please provide the quote.
You've called my opinion worthless many times, called me a creationist and attacked me on my age. Not to mention stated I spend time in fantasy lands and are delusional. I should report you for all of those as they are clearly breaking the rules, but I don't run to mommy to solve my problems like you did.
quote:
You are sounding more like a creo every minute!
See what happens when you just make crap up?
if you bothered to read my posts on that, you'd notice that when I ask for evidence, it's in a reasoned argument. It's not that there is no evidence for different era organisms in the same layer, it's why there is no evidence for it.
let's go over what you deliberately ignored
Now that is comedy. A missile shield prevents an secondary strike. Therefore eliminate MAD and allowing an first strike which is clearly offensive. A missile shield makes formerly unusable nuclear weapons usable. Tell me how that is not offensive instead of just pretending that I never made the comment. Your argument doesn't even make any sense. Here's the point about my comment on your analysis (it doesn't exist). If the missile shield was defensive, then China and Russia wouldn't be pissed off at the US. Purely defensive weapons don't bring up huge outrage. Without the threat of nuclear retaliation on the homeland, the US is largely free to fire weapons as it pleases. Shields are offensive weapons as they shield the attack from attacks that normally would have deterred them. It's actually good thing that the shield is an fraud. The last time we tried to do this it put us several hundred billion in the hole and we got virtually nothing out of it.
Like yourself. At least I understand this concept. You can't address my points.
Before you lie and distort what I've said, this isn't about deliberate use, it's about accidental use. In some degree, the US and Russia already acknowledge this will a retargeting of weapons into empty space. However, the threat is still there as all one has to do is retarget with the last known coordinates.
Could you define "completely disarm?"
Because under the shape charged argument, the only piece missing is the charge itself. The weapon is still in reality.
And no one ever considered the Nunn-Lugar CTR even a remote possibility in the past. Furthermore, everything in history was not even considered an remote possibility at some time. I'll repeat my last comment to you in a prior post as you seem to be unable to get out of it.
I'm asking you to argue why it is a bad idea. What you seem intent on doing it just arguing if someone else had thought of it before. That's worthless. Completely worthless.
And if you thought that was really true, you'd be able to disprove me. I'm still waiting.
I should report you for that. Why would it be true? All you can do is insult me. Not present any reason why that is wrong.
I'm asking you to present an reasoned argument why my idea is bad. You apparently are unwilling to do this. Why?
The US is fully capable of making new weapons quickly. Why wouldn't MAD still exist? If you nuke us, expect to get nuked back. How is that not MAD?
Yet you can't even refute anything. I have worthless opinions, but all you can do is throw ad homenins at me. I see how it is. Interceptors work to attack the missile in flight. ICBMs are actually in space. Those weapons you talked about, are not capable of space flight. By the time the weapon is leaving space, it is virtually too late to shoot it down. I already mentioned how the tracking speeds are incapable of hitting that as many of them have problems with much slower targets. Ignoring this does not make it go away, even though you'd love that to be true.
So you want to test the weapon when an nuclear tipped enemy missile is coming? Kind of cocky isn't that? Mind if the target is your city? Not a single test has even resembled what an enemy will do. What kind of test measures the viability of a system when everyone knows when the missile is coming, where it will be and everything about it?
You don't understand this subject!
This is funny seeing just how many points you pretend do not exist.
JUST LIKE A CREATIONIST
In this time with you, I've noticed something key. RAZD actually understands the subjects here and can discuss them at length off the top of his head, making complex, reasoned arguments where you just copy paste without an understanding of what you are copy-pasting.
Edited by obvious Child, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 221 by molbiogirl, posted 01-13-2008 7:33 PM molbiogirl has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 225 by molbiogirl, posted 01-15-2008 4:22 PM obvious Child has replied
 Message 226 by purpledawn, posted 01-16-2008 7:17 AM obvious Child has replied

  
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 230 of 241 (449090)
01-16-2008 3:52 PM
Reply to: Message 226 by purpledawn
01-16-2008 7:17 AM


Re: Quicksand
You'd think. I think MBG just likes to argue for the sake of arguing, regardless of anything of value comes of it. Reminds me of people in high school and college that would argue about anything and reject everything the other person said no matter how valid or how feeble they were at attacking it. Usually those people are type A and have serious hypertension problems.
I do however find it amusing to post what she deliberately ignored. When it's over 60% of my posts, it's hilarious, especially given her cocky nature.
Thanks though, I'm glad someone got something useful out of this debacle.
Edited by obvious Child, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 226 by purpledawn, posted 01-16-2008 7:17 AM purpledawn has not replied

  
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 233 of 241 (449095)
01-16-2008 4:19 PM
Reply to: Message 225 by molbiogirl
01-15-2008 4:22 PM


Re: Can we get off the Nuclear Holocaust Schtick for a while?
quote:
Here is the definition of defensive again:
Intended or appropriate for defending against or deterring aggression or attack; "defensive weapons"; "a defensive stance".
A missile shield is defensive, not offensive
Repeating the same thing over and over again does not make your argument valid. As you are a detractor of creationists who use this tactic, you should frankly know better.
Explain to me the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction. Then perhaps we'll get somewhere.
quote:
You didn't answer the question.
You have a penchant for going off on tangents, did you know that?
How is that off tangent? The concept of MAD is the key reason that nuclear weapons are unusable. The Missile Shield turns them into usable weapons by disrupting if not entirely destroying MAD.
Thanks again for showing you just don't get it.
And I'll get highlighting everything you choose to ignore like I did last them and from now on.
quote:
As a realist, I know you were hesitant to "judge the intentions" of China and Russia (aka If the missile shield was defensive, then China and Russia wouldn't be pissed off...); however, since you did judge their intentions (wants/fears/etc.), I responded:
Not at all. A realist works entirely off capabilities and the Missile shield, abet with a few upgrades and increases could easily shut down China, and Russia depending if they actually agree to the reduction plans as they have in the past. Intentions are irrelevant here. The capability of the shield to work against them is obvious to those with the knowledge. Thanks again for showing you just don't get it
quote:
Two things:
The missile shield is defensive.
Because it is defensive (offers protection against attack), Russia and China got PO'ed.
THERE YOU GO. The missile shield offers protection from an attack on Russia and China, therefore allowing the US to launch an attack that previously would have been deterred under MAD. Let's do this even dumber.
I would punch you except you would punch me back. Now I have a personal shield that protects me from being punched leaving me now to attack you without fear of retaliation. How is this shield not an offensive weapon when it clearly allows me to attack where I previously, without it would not have attacked? Oh wait, you don't address things that require a understanding of the subject.
quote:
Again. You didn't answer the question.
Here is your original quote:
Come again?
You cited your article as proof that pre-delegation does not exist
You stated this:
quote:
Page not found – Brookings
Thus, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute arguing that pre-delegation DOES NOT exist is more credible, not less.
Nothing at all in your article even discussed pre-delegation. Seriously. Did you not expect me to read that?
quote:
You need to address how "the liberal Brooking Institute" somehow is anti-nuke and therefore anti-pre-delegation, as that was your original contention.
I never said it wasn't anti-nuke and your own link proves it anyways. And I never said it was anti-pre-delegation, merely that its arguments, notice the word: arguments, do not make sense.
I realize you're purely looking for a citation fight, that's pointless and you once again fail to provide any reasoned arguments why you are right and I'm wrong. I give reasoned arguments why your statements, not arguments are false and why mine are correct. Why are you incapable, or unwilling to do the same? You have no problem giving reasoned arguments in other subjects, why here? Or is that you don't understand you know it?
quote:
You get to make a bare assertions. Yet I must provide support for my positions? Oh, I don't think so!
Your support is laughable, either completely missing the subject or posting irrelevant subjects. If I was wrong, you would have been able to prove it instead of just calling me names. You say this or that but by the next post you completely drop your points against me. That shows to me that you HAVE looked it up and figured out I'm right but you won't admit it.
quote:
As I stated previously, our satellite system is global. A local outage will not interfere with the missile shield's radar. The radar used to track incoming missiles is a series of low-earth orbit and high earth orbit STSS (space tracking and surveillance satellites) for the detection and tracking of ballistic missiles.
Where local means several million square miles of space and a significant portion of the sky and every satellite in it. I realize you have no understanding of this subject at all. Your own link stated that satellites will be blinded by such an action in line of sight. Radar doesn't work out of line of sight. Explain to me how a satellite who's position is one of the other side of the planet is going to be of any use. Oh wait, you don't have arguments, just insults and irrelevant statements.
quote:
They are knocked out (blinded) LOCALLY.
Where locally means everything for millions of miles in line of sight. Let me try to explain this to you in very simple terms so you can get it. Imagine a huge pool with thousands of cameras in it. Someone releases a huge amount of stuff into a section of it, reducing visibility to zero in it. Does it matter that we have cameras far away from that section? Can we see and tell what's in it with those cameras? It doesn't matter if we have one camera or a million that are outside of the blinded zone. We can't see anything IN the zone due to the visibility reducers. The satellites aren't blinded themselves internally, but they are blinded in detecting whatever is in the blast zone.
That is exactly what happens with a space based explosion precisely why we stopped using nuclear interceptors as they blind us to subsequent salvos.
quote:
ICBMs are:
1. Slow moving, fragile targets.
2. Easy to spot (bright exhaust plumes).
3. A unitary target.
The ABL can be deployed against ICBMs for boost phase intercept.
Come again? A missile moving 18,000 mph is SLOW?
You are arguing for the sake of arguing!
The speed of sound is 770 mph. The Patriot missile goes three times that. Nowhere ever CLOSE to an ICBM. Easy to spot yes, but so are alot of other things. That doesn't mean they are equal targets. I already dictated why ABLs don't work against ICMBs. And they were NEVER designed to target them.
Explain to me how we're suppose to get an ABL close to the target during boost phase and NOT get shot down?
You're arguing because you like arguing. Not because you think I'm wrong.
quote:
Your opinion is worthless. You have no credibility whatsoever. That's a fact, not a "name".
Based on your beliefs. Too bad you are incapable of addressing any arguments I've given, have completely failed to provide a single reasoned argument why I'm wrong and resorted to name calling in place of a reasoned argument. If I was what you said you'd be able to refute something I've said. Instead you ignore large parts of my post, call me names, refuse to give a reasoned argument and pretend you're right despite utterly failing to prove anything.
quote:
You are 25. That's a fact.
Prove it. Furthermore, that's the fallacy of the ancients.
Good job using creationist tactics.
quote:
I compared your methods to those of creos. I did not say: "You creo you!".
Just like Bush never said there was an imminent threat? And since you ignored the other things you did to me, I'm going to take that you admit you did them, including calling my opinion worthless, me being delusional and living in fantasy land.
Would you like to be reported to the Mods?
quote:
And yet you steadfastly refuse to provide evidence. You are a hypocrite. And, yes, that's me calling you a name.
Hey, you're free to look up anything I've said, and I'm pretty sure you already did. If I was wrong, why can't you prove it?
And here's what you deliberately ignored.
Now that is comedy. A missile shield prevents an secondary strike. Therefore eliminate MAD and allowing an first strike which is clearly offensive. A missile shield makes formerly unusable nuclear weapons usable. Tell me how that is not offensive instead of just pretending that I never made the comment. Your argument doesn't even make any sense. Here's the point about my comment on your analysis (it doesn't exist). If the missile shield was defensive, then China and Russia wouldn't be pissed off at the US. Purely defensive weapons don't bring up huge outrage. Without the threat of nuclear retaliation on the homeland, the US is largely free to fire weapons as it pleases. Shields are offensive weapons as they shield the attack from attacks that normally would have deterred them. It's actually good thing that the shield is an fraud. The last time we tried to do this it put us several hundred billion in the hole and we got virtually nothing out of it.
Like yourself. At least I understand this concept. You can't address my points.
Before you lie and distort what I've said, this isn't about deliberate use, it's about accidental use. In some degree, the US and Russia already acknowledge this will a retargeting of weapons into empty space. However, the threat is still there as all one has to do is retarget with the last known coordinates.
Could you define "completely disarm?"
Because under the shape charged argument, the only piece missing is the charge itself. The weapon is still in reality.
And no one ever considered the Nunn-Lugar CTR even a remote possibility in the past. Furthermore, everything in history was not even considered an remote possibility at some time. I'll repeat my last comment to you in a prior post as you seem to be unable to get out of it.
I'm asking you to argue why it is a bad idea. What you seem intent on doing it just arguing if someone else had thought of it before. That's worthless. Completely worthless.
And if you thought that was really true, you'd be able to disprove me. I'm still waiting.
I should report you for that. Why would it be true? All you can do is insult me. Not present any reason why that is wrong.
I'm asking you to present an reasoned argument why my idea is bad. You apparently are unwilling to do this. Why?
The US is fully capable of making new weapons quickly. Why wouldn't MAD still exist? If you nuke us, expect to get nuked back. How is that not MAD?
Yet you can't even refute anything. I have worthless opinions, but all you can do is throw ad homenins at me. I see how it is. Interceptors work to attack the missile in flight. ICBMs are actually in space. Those weapons you talked about, are not capable of space flight. By the time the weapon is leaving space, it is virtually too late to shoot it down. I already mentioned how the tracking speeds are incapable of hitting that as many of them have problems with much slower targets. Ignoring this does not make it go away, even though you'd love that to be true.
So you want to test the weapon when an nuclear tipped enemy missile is coming? Kind of cocky isn't that? Mind if the target is your city? Not a single test has even resembled what an enemy will do. What kind of test measures the viability of a system when everyone knows when the missile is coming, where it will be and everything about it?
You don't understand this subject!
This is funny seeing just how many points you pretend do not exist.
It's a common fact that ICBMs typically have around 6~12 MRVs. Go look it up. If I'm wrong, you should be able to prove it instead of just calling me names. Furthermore, Russia's weapons were at time after the SALT treaties around 10,000 weapons. 1/10 of that isn't far from what I gave.
Your complete and absolute failure to address an single point I have made is far more telling then you relying on childish comments. Say all the immature things you want, it doesn't change the fact that you can't refute anything I've said and that you are exponentially ignoring points. I clearly have the high ground here.
Against an entirely different target. You would not use a .223 round against an Hind, likewise you wouldn't use a METHEL against an ICBM. Different weapons call for different defenses. What we do not have is an defense against the countermeasures in an ICBM.
Not really. EMP isn't that important as you have stated military equipment is shielded from direct exposure. What we do not have an solution to is the radiation and static from an space based explosion, your own source even states that. Blinded radar = blinded interceptors. That was my entire point which you seemed to have either pretend not to exist or did not understand.
You've called my opinion worthless many times, called me a creationist and attacked me on my age. Not to mention stated I spend time in fantasy lands and are delusional. I should report you for all of those as they are clearly breaking the rules, but I don't run to mommy to solve my problems like you did.
if you bothered to read my posts on that, you'd notice that when I ask for evidence, it's in a reasoned argument. It's not that there is no evidence for different era organisms in the same layer, it's why there is no evidence for it.
I have yet to see you make a SINGLE REASONED ARGUMENT IN THE PAST FOUR POSTS
I'm still waiting for you to argue how Hair Trigger is safer then Not Hair trigger.
You seem perfectly content to pretend NO one ever made that point.
Edited by obvious Child, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 225 by molbiogirl, posted 01-15-2008 4:22 PM molbiogirl has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 235 by Phat, posted 01-17-2008 6:26 PM obvious Child has replied

  
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 236 of 241 (449633)
01-18-2008 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 235 by Phat
01-17-2008 6:26 PM


Re: Back to the Topic
quote:
Do me a favor and quit making these long posts simply to prove a point. I want this topic to be about a progressive discussion of ideas rather than long posts that simply win a debate or argument.
I made my initial points and reiterated them several times already. Molbio apparently just loves to argue without actually presenting an argument other the one based on name calling.
quote:
Explain to me your views and opinions briefly....the objective here is to stimulate a conversation in a roundtable fashion with other EvC'ers rather than to lock horns with Molbio simply to prove some point regarding Foreign Policy and Nuclear Weapons.
No problem.
The future of humanity can be at least partially ensured if we do the following:
1) Get off hair trigger nuclear alert as it has almost wiped out mankind 20+ times.
2) Go to virtual nuclear arsenals as they eliminate or reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism.
3) Stop wasting billions on missile defense that won't work (how about education, or green technology, or carbon sequestering?!)
And I have had a good conversation with purpledawn. Purple even thanked me for my posts.
Jar made the point that keeping religious whackjobs who believe in the end times out of positions of power will ensure the future of humanity on Earth. The problem I have with that is figuring out who is, who isn't and who's hiding it. Emperor Palpatine from the Star War series comes to mind. By the time the good guys figured it out, they were boned. Thus, IMO, we should remove the tools for the end times believers need to end the world rather then focus on stopping crazies who we may not from getting into office. Plus American voters are idiots. There is no realistic way to ensure through democracy that Jar's idea is made reality.
For global warming, IMO, it's too late to stop it. What we should be doing it preventing more acceleration of it and gear up for what it will bring.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 235 by Phat, posted 01-17-2008 6:26 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 238 by Phat, posted 01-20-2008 4:22 PM obvious Child has replied

  
obvious Child
Member (Idle past 4137 days)
Posts: 661
Joined: 08-17-2006


Message 240 of 241 (450357)
01-21-2008 5:15 PM
Reply to: Message 238 by Phat
01-20-2008 4:22 PM


Re: Lets discuss Futurism
Perhaps not, but we can reduce the number of weapons and accessibility of them. You don't make a problem bigger, you try to eliminate or mitigate. If we strengthen the NPT to the point where getting weapons illegal is economic suicide, well that more or less defeats your problem of only outlaws having weapons.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 238 by Phat, posted 01-20-2008 4:22 PM Phat has not replied

  
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