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Author Topic:   Global Cooling?
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 6 of 79 (454991)
02-09-2008 5:09 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by BMG
02-08-2008 3:40 PM


"[Kenneth] Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere".
IF
That's a big if.
Solar Cycle Progression Page Has Changed | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
quote:
The charts on this page depict the progression of the Solar Cycle. The charts and tables are updated by the Space Weather Prediction Center monthly using the latest ISES predictions. Observed values are initially the preliminary values which are replaced with the final values as they become available.

NASA/Marshall Solar Physics
quote:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/zurich.gif
The "sunspot number" is then given by the sum of the number of individual sunspots and ten times the number of groups. Since most sunspot groups have, on average, about ten spots, this formula for counting sunspots gives reliable numbers even when the observing conditions are less than ideal and small spots are hard to see. Monthly averages (updated monthly) of the sunspot numbers (25 kb GIF image), (37 kb postscript file), (62 kb text file) show that the number of sunspots visible on the sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle.
(Note: there are actually at least two "official" sunspot numbers reported. The International Sunspot Number is compiled by the Sunspot Index Data Center in Belgium. The NOAA sunspot number is compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The numbers tabulated in spot_num.txt are the monthly averages (SSN) and standard deviation (DEV) derived from the International Sunspot Numbers)
The Maunder Minimum
Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.
Sunspot Cycle Predictions
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif
MSFC Solar Physics Branch members Wilson, Hathaway, and Reichmann have studied the sunspot record for characteristic behavior that might help in predicting future sunspot activity. Our current predictions of solar activity for the next few years can be found at this link. Although sunspots themselves produce only minor effects on solar emissions, the magnetic activity that accompanies the sunspots can produce dramatic changes in the ultraviolet and soft x-ray emission levels. These changes over the solar cycle have important consequences for the Earth's upper atmosphere.
We are at a normal low point in the cycle, which varies around 11 years.
This is like looking at low tide and saying: ya know if the water doesn't come back this could result in a low average water level.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by BMG, posted 02-08-2008 3:40 PM BMG has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by BMG, posted 02-10-2008 12:02 AM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 9 of 79 (455086)
02-10-2008 8:46 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by BMG
02-10-2008 12:02 AM


- but I am at a loss regarding the connection between sunspot activity and the Sun's intensity.
I'm not sure the scientists know either, they just have reams of data on the correlation. It may be something as simple as solar energy being tied up in the magnetic fields is not free to radiate away from the sun, or that it results in changes to the energy levels (radio wave interference also associated with sunspot activity) and thus the spectrum of what is radiated.
I have to learn how to use footnotes.
I don't think we have a mechanism for that, so you have to use html tags - footnote(1) becomes footnote(1)
Then at the bottom you can do:


(1) - footnote text
and it becomes


(1) - footnote text
Enjoy.
Edited by RAZD, : footnotes not references

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 11 of 79 (455106)
02-10-2008 1:09 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by AnswersInGenitals
02-10-2008 12:25 PM


The real question.
Another issue is that the weather in the Northern Hemisphere is kept artificially warm by the Gulf Stream, and that significant change or disruption of this system would cause colder weather -- without any regard to global temperature levels.
This looks like a couple of straw dogs harnessed together to obfuscate and avoid the real issue.
IF global warming is occurring (consensus is yes) then should we do something about it, or should we find excuses to keep our heads in the sand? Are we ready to start conscious control of the climate/weather?
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 02-10-2008 12:25 PM AnswersInGenitals has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by BMG, posted 02-10-2008 1:26 PM RAZD has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 17 of 79 (455136)
02-10-2008 8:47 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by fgarb
02-10-2008 5:50 PM


Welcome to the fray fgarb.
Another way to do that here is
[thumb=300]http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/COSMIC_RAYS/image/cr_ssn.gif[/thumb]
where the number 300 sets the displayed picture width and the tumbnail (automatically centered) is a link to the full size image (this is really good for large images, say over 500 pixels wide)
Am I correct in seeing the blue data as the cosmic rays that are also involved in the production of carbon-14 in the atmosphere?
Based on this evidence, I see no reason to link sunspots or cosmic rays in any way to the warming that has been observed recently.
Which it would not be if the warming were due to man's interference in the heat balance of the atmosphere, yes?
But you're better off looking at the actual flux of solar energy reaching us on the earth if you're trying to understand how the sun could have influenced the current climate.
So if you could show no real change in the sun energy production other than that due to sunspots\cosmic rays (or similar data) but a real change in the flux of energy reaching the surface of the earth versus captured in the atmosphere, then couldn't you make an argument that the change was not due to the sun cycles?
Enjoy.
ps - For newcomers interested in other formating tips see Posting Tips

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by fgarb, posted 02-10-2008 5:50 PM fgarb has replied

Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 20 of 79 (455141)
02-10-2008 9:20 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by Quetzal
02-10-2008 8:52 PM


Re: Global dimming?
A much bigger issue is the change in the Earth's albedo caused by deforestation.
I read an article that suggested this trend has been with us since the start of the agricultural revolution, 10K years ago ...
We're just finishing it up.
Enjoy?

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 42 of 79 (455693)
02-13-2008 12:29 PM
Reply to: Message 39 by tesla
02-13-2008 10:43 AM


Bringing on evolution?
i have noticed both the changes in plant life , animal life, and temperature of my area. ...
state flowers are almost becoming extinct to the states they were of origin to.
There was an interesting show on public radio the other night, from the DNA Files. This one was on global warming and the effect already observed on evolution of species: The Heat Is On: Evolution in Action
It was talking about animals migrating to stay in their "zone" and of relatively rapid evolution of species to adapt to the new conditions. Changes that have already been observed.
I've been thinking that one of the "benefits" of global warming would be the rather incontestable evidence of evolution that would result from such widespread change to all kinds of ecologies as species adapt to new conditions. We should see many new instances of speciation, possibly enough development of new features to put the "macroevolution" question to bed.
Moving into a period of punctuated evolution from one of stasis?
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 39 by tesla, posted 02-13-2008 10:43 AM tesla has replied

Replies to this message:
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 Message 44 by Quetzal, posted 02-13-2008 2:14 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 67 of 79 (456168)
02-15-2008 10:32 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by Quetzal
02-13-2008 2:14 PM


Re: Bringing on evolution?
Too bad about the bandwidth. Did you try to download the MP3? Its 30 megs and took 3 minutes on my connection (DSL), but wouldn't play on my media player
The link is on this page. Otherwise you will have to wait for the CDs.
quote:
Coming soon: CDs of the programs. For more information, contact feedback@dnafiles.org.
Maybe they can email you an MP3 that works.
Most modern terrestrial habitats are heavily fragmented, primarily by human impacts. In short, there is no habitat to track to, or no way to get where their "zone" will exist.
What I was struck by was the amount of evolution that was already taking place to adapt the various plant and animal organisms to the changes in climate, from breeding time to blooming time outside normal boundaries.
I think fragmentation is a concern - for fragmented organisms. I expect cockroaches to survive regardless. There will doubtless be extinction, but this is one of the elements that will enable evolution to demonstrate what happens after extinction events, periods that show the most change in the fossil record.
Ultimately, my prediction is that even in those organisms with exceptional dispersal abilities, a significant risk of extinction - vice evolution - is the mostly likely outcome.
You're thinking food chain crashes and other domino effects yes? Again I don't doubt that extinction will occur -- just that it will be the only thing that occurs.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by Quetzal, posted 02-13-2008 2:14 PM Quetzal has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 68 by tesla, posted 02-15-2008 11:53 PM RAZD has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 77 of 79 (456268)
02-16-2008 6:48 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by tesla
02-16-2008 6:10 PM


Re: Global dimming?
what I'm asking is: by adding the carbons to our atmosphere, is the water containable space shrinking, and if shrinking, could the less air volume to support water mean that global warming could cause the sky to become permanently covered?
Check out partial pressures
quote:
In a mixture of ideal gases, each gas has a partial pressure which is the pressure which the gas would have if it alone occupied the volume. The total pressure of a gas mixture is the sum of the partial pressures of each individual gas in the mixture.
Gases dissolve, diffuse, and react according to their partial pressures, and not necessarily according to their concentrations in a gas mixture.
In other words the concentration of one gas doesn't affect the concentration of other gases.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by tesla, posted 02-16-2008 6:10 PM tesla has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 78 by tesla, posted 02-16-2008 7:11 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 79 of 79 (456406)
02-17-2008 8:10 PM
Reply to: Message 78 by tesla
02-16-2008 7:11 PM


Re: Global dimming?
The important thing is to notice that the (partial) pressure of H2O does not depend on the (partial) pressure of CO2 or other gases, rather it is dependent on temperature and the (partial) pressure of H20.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
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