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Author Topic:   The Iran Attack
Grizz
Member (Idle past 5471 days)
Posts: 318
Joined: 06-08-2007


Message 2 of 9 (469910)
06-08-2008 2:33 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by starman
06-08-2008 5:18 AM


Opinions? Is Israel / US right to proceed with this? The spike in oil prices seems to indicate that many worry it will happen, and there is a lot of talk.
Hi,
What do you mean by "Attack"? If you mean invade, I would say no.
A similar scenario occurred in 1981 -- "Operation Babylon." In the late 70's, Iraq was working on the construction of an Osirak reactor with parts and material supplied by France. They pledged to use the reactor for civilian purposes only but after a while Intelligence indicated they were starting to create processes to extract plutonium and refine it to weapons-grade material. The West pressed for information and demanded Iraq provide evidence that would allow one to conclude whether they were in fact doing just that.
The West asked for permission to interview members of the scientific team that headed up the project. Iraq refused and shortly later three Iraqi physicists involved with the reactor program suddenly disappeared and were later reported dead by the Iraqi government. Their death remains a mystery. Satellite and intelligence indicated a flurry of activity at the facility with vehicles moving in and out of the compound at a rapid pace. The next day, Israel sent in a squadron of F-16's to disable the reactor in the middle of the night. That was the end of the Iraqi program.
Nobody is trying to refuse any country the right to build reactors for civilian energy needs. Nobody has a problem with Iran's reactor program in this regards. What the UN requires is that they continue to allow inspections to ensure they are not going about the business of manufacturing weapons-grade material for use in WMD. They are not complying and this is not a good sign. The UN will not allow Iran to develop a weapons program. Whether you agree or disagree, it's just not going to happen.
I suspect this situation will be similar to the one with Iraq in 1981. Israel will take the first shot and go in with a pre-emptive strike against the reactor complex. They have been more vocal of late with the Israeli PM recently saying they will do just that. I tend to believe them. I do not think the US will be involved initially. Once Iran's facility is attacked, I believe Iran will respond by attacking Israel in the hopes other Arab nations join in the fray. This is when things get dicey and when the US will intervene. How far we get involved remains to be seen but I think it is a given at this point that this type of scenario is inevitable.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by starman, posted 06-08-2008 5:18 AM starman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by starman, posted 06-09-2008 1:58 AM Grizz has not replied

  
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