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Author Topic:   Confidence in evolutionary science
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 1 of 37 (496341)
01-27-2009 8:21 PM


So why am I so confident?

Converging lines
I am not going to go into all the pieces of evidence, in all their glorious detail here. Some examples might follow. If I ask someone for directions and he points northwest. I don't follow his directions and later I ask someone for directions to the same place and she points northeast. I might infer, assuming honesty, that the location of my destination is somewhere near where lines extending from the fingers of the two pointers cross. That is to say, the lines converge upon a single location. If I wander aimlessly around and continue to ask people, and whenever they point I draw another line on a map I should expect to find that the lines all cross at a particular point. If I have wandered in something of a circle around my destination, I should have quite a pretty pattern of lines all converging on one spot on my map (excuse the crudeness of the diagram):
We can, in this case, be fairly confident that we know where X happens to be (I choose X because it is visually representative of converging lines pointing to a single place, X marks the spot! I could have used * which might indicate more data points, but how that looks is kind of dependent on a person's computer/browser profile). Indeed - we no longer have to assume honesty. It is incredibly unlikely that even if all people were liars, that they would point in such a fashion as to create a point where all the lines cross at the same time.
Of course, there is a big problem that is easily overlooked. What happens if my destination's location is the unwitting victim of a common misconception? Everybody thinks they know where it is (and everybody agrees where they think it is), but everybody is wrong in the same way. In my home town, there is a building that looks exactly like this. If I ask for directions to the town hall I am quite likely to encounter a number of people who will point me at this. However, the official council building is located a few miles away.
So, if I want to be really careful, I would look to completely different types of evidence that doesn't suffer from the same kinds of errors or problems as people do. Let's go universal, and say that I am trying to find the magnetic north pole - I have so far asked eight people and have got the pattern in the diagram above (I've pretty much circumnavigated the globe to ask for directions!). It is unlikely they are lying, but they might be under a misconception. So each time somebody tells me, I also take a look at my compass. I find that the compass agrees, more or less, with the people each time and so I begin to follow one of the lines. I also look to where the sun rises and sets and make sure that is consistent with me heading to magnetic north. I look for stars, such as the North Star and make sure I'm travelling correctly as per that, and finally I use my knowledge of geography to ensure I am maintaining something of constant correct direction. If I was in London yesterday and Manchester today - I'm doing well because Manchester is closer to the North Pole than London is. I might even get out my GPS equipment, measure shadow lengths at various times and any other creative methods you might think of.
I can even continue to circumnavigate the globe making sure that I am creating converging lines of evidence again - only this time...they are independent of each other. One might have certain potential problems, another might have different ones. If they are all pointing in basically the same direction, converging approximately on a point I can increase my confidence with each independent line that I know where the North Pole is.
Occasionally, I'll make a measurement that points in a completely crazy direction as being North. This is interesting. It might be that I am using the technique wrong, forgetting to compensate for something (if I'm on a metal ship, a compass could be affected by the metal and start going crazy), or maybe I've just discovered something new and interesting. We'll call these outliers, most of the time they are mistakes and we might not understand how they happen, perhaps we'll explore them later but for now we'll simply discard them. The more outliers we find, the lower our confidence is, and it might even be possible to make some statistical calculations of confidence to work out which is the most likely location what the probability of that is.
Having read a multitude of books, read primary literature, conducted simple home tests of my own, spoken personally with scientists who conduct more complex tests, seen various practical applications of knowledge all surrounding the the subject of evolution I am confident that there are multiple independent converging lines of evidence that point to the conclusion that life has changed over time on earth, that all life is related, that the modern synthesis pretty much explains how this all happens, and that it has happened over billions of years. In short (heh) - this is why I have the degree of confidence I have in evolutionary science.
Edited by Admin, : Shorten long link.
Edited by Modulous, : Culling 2,100 of my babies words.
Edited by Modulous, : No reason given.
Edited by Modulous, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 8:35 PM Modulous has not replied
 Message 7 by RAZD, posted 01-27-2009 10:12 PM Modulous has not replied
 Message 8 by Dawn Bertot, posted 01-27-2009 10:20 PM Modulous has replied
 Message 15 by Agobot, posted 01-28-2009 9:07 AM Modulous has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 2 of 37 (496343)
01-27-2009 8:35 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Modulous
01-27-2009 8:21 PM


There are a number of errors in there since I was still editing the post before release. They aren't huge problems, but my 1 in a 100,000 was meant to be 1 in 1,000 for instance, and this obviously impacts the numbers that follow it - I got a little carried away.
I'm having issues editing it - they might be related to the reasons it got posted twice rather than previewed once. Perhaps due to its size? I'll leave it alone for now...

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 Message 1 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 8:21 PM Modulous has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by Admin, posted 01-27-2009 9:06 PM Modulous has replied

  
Admin
Director
Posts: 12998
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 3 of 37 (496350)
01-27-2009 9:06 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by Modulous
01-27-2009 8:35 PM


I was able to make edits to it, but the length *is* a problem. It's too long for an opening post. If you trim it down to something under 800 words or so then I'll promote it. Hold the original version aside, you'll be able to feed in the rest of it during discussion.
As you noted, maintaining the focus on the interwoven web of justifications for high confidence rather than on the details of the individual justifications will be important.
If you can't edit it then make a copy of it for yourself and let me know, the I'll delete the contents for you so you can add a new version. I'm using Chrome these days, other browsers only when checking browser compatibility.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 8:35 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 9:23 PM Admin has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 4 of 37 (496356)
01-27-2009 9:23 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Admin
01-27-2009 9:06 PM


I did some merciless murdering of my words, (nah just kidding - they've been moved into cold storage). It stands at about 900 words now and is just the set-up for discussing the centre piece of my point: independent converging lines of evidence. If you really want - I'll hunt around to take it down to below 800. Either way I'm going to get some sleep.

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 Message 3 by Admin, posted 01-27-2009 9:06 PM Admin has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by Admin, posted 01-27-2009 9:33 PM Modulous has seen this message but not replied
 Message 9 by RAZD, posted 01-27-2009 10:39 PM Modulous has replied

  
Admin
Director
Posts: 12998
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 5 of 37 (496360)
01-27-2009 9:33 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Modulous
01-27-2009 9:23 PM


Either way I'm going to get some sleep.
I sure hope so - I couldn't believe the time on your previous post, and this one is even more ridiculous. Hope you don't have to get up early for work tomorrow.
It's looks and reads fine the way it is, I see no need to be a stickler for 800 words. I'll promote it now.

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

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Admin
Director
Posts: 12998
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 6 of 37 (496361)
01-27-2009 9:34 PM


Thread moved here from the Proposed New Topics forum.

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 7 of 37 (496369)
01-27-2009 10:12 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Modulous
01-27-2009 8:21 PM


contrasts: finding the west pole
Excellent post, Mod, and it leaves me curious what has been left out now.
What happens if my destination's location is the unwitting victim of a common misconception? Everybody thinks they know where it is (and everybody agrees where they think it is), but everybody is wrong in the same way.
It occurred to me that another contrast would be to compare finding the north pole with finding the west pole. Lots of people will confidently tell you to "go west, young man, go west" and point you in the proper direction. No matter where you start from the lines of direction never converge on a single location, and eventually you end up back where you started, perhaps after circulating the globe several times.
One could pursue an analogy to places of faith (and being able to find them if you believe in them, while having others tell you that the "west pole" is a myth and it doesn't exist), however all that is necessary is to show that one does not have much confidence in finding the west pole if the information does not converge on a destination.
You could also do this by asking where "town hall" was in various cities, and drawing your lines from your location in the direction pointed, before going off to the next town and repeating your inquiry. Here too, there is a lack of convergence on a single location because the destination is not well defined.
Having read a multitude of books, read primary literature, conducted simple home tests of my own, spoken personally with scientists who conduct more complex tests, seen various practical applications of knowledge all surrounding the the subject of evolution I am confident that there are multiple independent converging lines of evidence that point to the conclusion that life has changed over time on earth, that all life is related, that the modern synthesis pretty much explains how this all happens, and that it has happened over billions of years. In short (heh) - this is why I have the degree of confidence I have in evolutionary science.
And also, not finding any evidence that evolution does not happen, that speciation does not happen, not having any evidence of an inability for life to have evolved from an initial pool of life.
The absence of contradictory evidence after 150+ years of searching is also concordant with the theory of evolution being correct: there are no arrows pointing in the wrong direction.
It will be interesting to see Bertot, homunculus, etc, try to point in other directions ...
Enjoy.
Edited by RAZD, : englsh

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 8:21 PM Modulous has not replied

  
Dawn Bertot
Member
Posts: 3571
Joined: 11-23-2007


Message 8 of 37 (496370)
01-27-2009 10:20 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Modulous
01-27-2009 8:21 PM


Mod writes:
Having read a multitude of books, read primary literature, conducted simple home tests of my own, spoken personally with scientists who conduct more complex tests, seen various practical applications of knowledge all surrounding the the subject of evolution I am confident that there are multiple independent converging lines of evidence that point to the conclusion that life has changed over time on earth, that all life is related, that the modern synthesis pretty much explains how this all happens, and that it has happened over billions of years. In short (heh) - this is why I have the degree of confidence I have in evolutionary science.
Ill probably follow along and leave this one alone, since it has nothing to do with ORIGINS, TRUTH, REASONS OR PURPOSES, for all intents and purposes (pun intended. In other words what are you conclusions after your examination of the percieved facts. Oh yeah, thats right, you guys dont draw conclusions about anything. See ya on the thread.
Edited by Bertot, : No reason given.
Edited by Bertot, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 8:21 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by NosyNed, posted 01-27-2009 10:44 PM Dawn Bertot has not replied
 Message 13 by Admin, posted 01-28-2009 7:01 AM Dawn Bertot has not replied
 Message 17 by Modulous, posted 01-28-2009 9:32 AM Dawn Bertot has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 9 of 37 (496374)
01-27-2009 10:39 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Modulous
01-27-2009 9:23 PM


mass lexicologial murdering spree
Hey Mod,
being able to hone your ideas down the way you do is something I admire.
Here is another image you may want to copy or use:
I like using the [thumb=300] command as it controls the size for readability and centers the image.
You can also talk about ship navigation, where the pilot take a sight on various celestial objects, even at different times, and plots them on a chart to obtain a "fix" on his location. Often times these lines converge near a single location, but end up forming a box around your probable location. The smaller the box, the higher is the probability that your fix is concordant with your actual position.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 9:23 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 10 of 37 (496376)
01-27-2009 10:44 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Dawn Bertot
01-27-2009 10:20 PM


Dodging again Bertot?
It seems you have enough understanding to avoid places where the flaws in your reasoning will be made too clear. You dodge well, but it is obvious.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Dawn Bertot, posted 01-27-2009 10:20 PM Dawn Bertot has not replied

Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 11 of 37 (496394)
01-28-2009 1:49 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by NosyNed
01-27-2009 10:44 PM


Obviously a dodge
But Bertot will tell you he doesn't drive a Dodge,
he drives a Christler ...

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olivortex
Member (Idle past 4778 days)
Posts: 70
From: versailles, france
Joined: 01-28-2009


Message 12 of 37 (496399)
01-28-2009 3:57 AM


Hi mod and everybody in here.
As an introduciton i would say i admit being an evolution believer (not an evolutionIST - i can't stand -isms - and to moderate my supporting behaviour i always try to remember i'm quite new on the topic. I got interested in it while having my first discussion about darwin, mendel and consorts on a forum where i was supposed to talk about music. it was more a creationist nest where some people liked to use their rethoric magical tricks to put an end to the discussion by finally saying: "read the bible" or stuff like that.
So i try to find other places on the net that give some room for intelligent, intelligible and open chat about evolution and creation.
The first thing i want creationi/ID supporters to know about me is this: if one day god comes down or appear to me and show me in undeniable way that he exists and that yes, our science is failing to give a proper answer to our questions, then i would stop my reflection. Until this happens, i will support the evolution theory, i guess.
Edited by olivortex, : No reason given.
Edited by olivortex, : No reason given.
Edited by olivortex, : No reason given.

  
Admin
Director
Posts: 12998
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 13 of 37 (496419)
01-28-2009 7:01 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by Dawn Bertot
01-27-2009 10:20 PM


Hi Bertot,
Yet another unnecessary post!
I'm going to assume you were just having a bad spell last night. Please do not post in this hit-and-run manner here or in any other thread, nor in any other manner not intended to contribute productively to discussion.
I know that for you it is one against many in some threads, but it is the nature of irrational positions to attract a lot of attention. I know you don't agree you're being irrational, but if not then it is very hard to tell, probably because your very long posts work against you. I suggest shortening your posts to focus strongly on a core point or two, resolving one before advancing to the next.

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Dawn Bertot, posted 01-27-2009 10:20 PM Dawn Bertot has not replied

  
olivortex
Member (Idle past 4778 days)
Posts: 70
From: versailles, france
Joined: 01-28-2009


Message 14 of 37 (496428)
01-28-2009 8:47 AM


Unfortunately it's always a one-against-many on this topic. proportions can be reversed as i had the opportunity to experience it on another forum, that had a strong religious AND creationist connotation. Sometimes whatever you say, you can't change nothing about the single-direction-ness of the chat. I can't help but noticing that evolution theory supporters show a lot more openness in general, when confronted with intelligent design supporters.
As for the confidence i put in the evolution views: on the mentioned forum where i first started talking about it, i was told that evolution was a propaganda, in the contemporary or popular sense of the word, that means for many people: lies and all kinds of techniques to fool people in order to conquer hearts, minds, wallets, markets. My opponents seemed to be hesitating about calling evolution theory some sort of "djihad" which is, as you know, non-sense, moreover when you see their way of placing religion into the debate... when you try to be clear about the fact that belief in one theory is not faith as a religious indivividual can conceive it, you're not really heard or understood. Actually you're often ignored, as if atheism, even in its own explanation and legitimate self-defense couldn't be considered! that's why the U.S.A. tend to scare lots of people in europe: Obama, Bush, Kennedy, etc swore on the bible, around 30 percents only of the people are said to believe in evolution, etc. May be not so true. i hope. From my french point of view, it's hard to make myself a serious painting of all this.
nevertheless there are interesting tracks to be followed, as Ken Miller showed. you have the right to believe in a god, but not to deceive people.

  
Agobot
Member (Idle past 5530 days)
Posts: 786
Joined: 12-16-2007


Message 15 of 37 (496430)
01-28-2009 9:07 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Modulous
01-27-2009 8:21 PM


Modulous writes:
In short (heh) - this is why I have the degree of confidence I have in evolutionary science.
I see where your confidence is coming from, it's understandable. After all, that's where investigation is leading us. But how confident are you that this experience, the universe, evolution and sentience are a product of real unadulterated chance?
After pondering a lot about this, I'd say that everything is unreal. The concept of emergence hides a great enigma. The human body, as it is, is mind-blowingly complex, in fact no words can properly describe the organisational complexity involved(especially when you consider how proteins move atoms to repair broken links within cells, how those 100 000 trillion trillion atoms of your body constantly move and interact in an organised fashion to create who you are). How real is this? How real is a whole galaxy that gets swollowed by a black hole and all the "matter" within it is reduced to the size of an atom or even zero? How real is your human body that is composed of 100 000 trillion trillion waves, seen every time at the double slit experiment as an interference pattern?
Does an evolutionary atheist ever ask himself - "what exactly are we"? If not, why, and is the confidence in evolution merely a confidence that it is happening, but deeper questions aren't related to the theory of evolution and should be addressed by philosophy?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Modulous, posted 01-27-2009 8:21 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
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