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Author Topic:   Percy is a Deist - Now what's the difference between a deist and an atheist?
bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2497 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 211 of 375 (500888)
03-02-2009 8:58 PM
Reply to: Message 208 by RAZD
03-02-2009 7:20 PM


Re: Anything goes when you ignore the actual argument.
RAZD writes:
My position is simple: science and logic can only get you so far, in finding the "ultimate answer to the questions of life, the universe and (oh) everything" -
I agree entirely.
RAZD writes:
and that when you exceed that boundary you cannot claim to be correct or right ... or logical.
Which is a good reason not to exceed it. Instead, you say, with honesty: "I do not know the ultimate answer to to the questions of life, the universe, and everything, or even if there is such a thing". Simple.
RAZD writes:
No matter how hard you try you will never derive or deduct a real answer, rather that what you will get is a conclusion consistent with your world view. You will, of course, also conclude that your answer is logical and rational.
One doesn't need to try to answer unanswerable questions. By definition, it's a rather pointless passtime, don't you think?
My "world view" is that honesty is the best policy, and that this thing called Faith is unnecessary, and fundamentally dishonest.
However, if you're going to have Faith, I'd recommend the number 42, as it's as good as anything else.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 208 by RAZD, posted 03-02-2009 7:20 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1425 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 212 of 375 (500892)
03-02-2009 9:34 PM
Reply to: Message 210 by Straggler
03-02-2009 8:51 PM


Re: The difference is where you go when you run out of evidence and logic
Given that you seem to have ceased participation in your Immaterial Pink Unicorn thread ...
I haven't.
I don't have time right now to give it the time it needs.
Do you understand that? I've only told you three times already.
Whilst you seem to agree that there is no evidential or logical reason for believing in any particular god you also seem to consider the atheistic conclusion that no particular god is evidentially or logically worthy of belief as irrational.
Once more, I don't think rational comes into it. You are off evidence and off direct logical extrapolation, so there is nothing to base a logical conclusion on.
Do you accept that your path, the path of choosing one such entity in which to place your faith whilst rejecting the infinite array of other possibilities, is irrational?
Which is STILL not my position. This is all I have time for tonight.
To claim these things as unknowable in any objective sense may be strictly and trivially true. But that does not stop us from reaching highly evidentially supported and logically consistent answers. Answers that, despite ultimately remaining untested, still have the weight of the scientific method behind them and a degree of reliability that subjective world view will never match.
Pissing into the wind is just as relieving as pissing downwind, the only difference is you get wet.
You have said nothing that refutes this in two threads now.
You are refuted by Mark24 coming to a contradictory conclusion from the same evidence. This has been pointed out on two threads.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 210 by Straggler, posted 03-02-2009 8:51 PM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 213 by Straggler, posted 03-03-2009 2:46 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 213 of 375 (500946)
03-03-2009 2:46 PM
Reply to: Message 212 by RAZD
03-02-2009 9:34 PM


Re: The difference is where you go when you run out of evidence and logic
Which, curiously, is not my position. Let me know when you want to address the position and not your straw man version.
Which is STILL not my position.
If every single person participating in both threads is failing to understand or appreciate exactly what your position is then you must take some responsibility for not having explained it adequately.
Straggler writes:
Whilst you seem to agree that there is no evidential or logical reason for believing in any particular god you also seem to consider the atheistic conclusion that no particular god is evidentially or logically worthy of belief as irrational.
Once more, I don't think rational comes into it. You are off evidence and off direct logical extrapolation, so there is nothing to base a logical conclusion on.
What do you make of the evidence in favour of humanity inventing gods?
Do you think this has any relevance with regard to attempting to objectively evaluate the likelihood of particualr gods actually existing?
Or not?
Straggler writes:
To claim these things as unknowable in any objective sense may be strictly and trivially true. But that does not stop us from reaching highly evidentially supported and logically consistent answers. Answers that, despite ultimately remaining untested, still have the weight of the scientific method behind them and a degree of reliability that subjective world view will never match.
Pissing into the wind is just as relieving as pissing downwind, the only difference is you get wet.
True. But sticking a wetted finger in the air to determine which way the wind is blowing before starting to piss will only increase your chances of staying dry.
I have a more sympathy with the sentiment of your position than you might think. Nobody is claiming that untested hypotheses have been rendered scientifically reliable. They most certainly have not.
BUT this does not mean that scientific hypotheses are equivalent to illogical subjective claims that are derived from no objective evidence at all. Your subjective "world view" assertion completely fails to take this into account. They are not equivalent in terms of reliability and they are not equivalent in terms of providing a basis for further reasoned investigation. Your ongoing insistence that the IPU and the possibility of alien life are evidentially and logically equivalent demonstrates that you are still failing to appreciate or acknowledge this absolutely key point.
Even if two or more contradictory but equally evidentially supported and logical conclusions arise we have still narrowed down the possibilities to those that are logical and evidentially supported. If we accept your subjective world views assertion then even this basic first step in the process of elimination becomes impossible.
  • SOME evidence is a superior position to NO evidence.
  • Logically derived untested conclusions are superior to illogical untested conclusions.
    Straggler writes:
    You have said nothing that refutes this in two threads now.
    You are refuted by Mark24 coming to a contradictory conclusion from the same evidence. This has been pointed out on two threads.
    You have placed a lot of emphasis on this now but I genuinely fail to see how Mark24's assertion refutes anything? Perhaps I too am failing to adequately explain myself. Let's try and clear up this particular misunderstanding.
    INTERLUDE
    Mark24 initially claimed that the number of planets in the universe had no bearing on the probability of extraterrestrial life existing elsewhere in the universe. No matter what other factors may also be relevant this assertion is just mathematically false. The number of planets in the universe is logically and indisputably a relevant factor. In mathematical terms the probability of alien life existing is proportional to some function of the number of planets in the universe. Yes there will be other relevant factors but the number of planets in the universe is most definitely one of them. If there are no other planets in the universe there will be no life on other planets. If there are an infinite number of planets in the universe then, unless you consider all other life to be absolutely impossible for some reason, extraterrestrial life is certain to exist. This is basic maths.
    END INTERLUDE
    Regardless - I have repeatedly stated that the absolute probability is irrelevant to my position. Instead it is the relative likelihood and the factors that contribute to this assessment that are important.
    In the context of this argument I don't care whether Mark24 considers extraterrestrial life to be deeply unlikely or exceptionally probable based on the incomplete evidence available. The actual answer arrived at does nothing to invalidate the scientific nature of the question and the ability to give a rational, reasoned and evidentially supported answer.
    It does matter whether he bases his conclusions on objectively definable and logically valid factors such as the number of planets in the universe, the hospitability to life of those planets, the abundance of certain elements, etc. etc. etc. Objective, logical factors which we can agree upon and then investigate further in order to strengthen or weaken the relative likelihood of the contradicting claims in the absence of actually finding direct and conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial life.
    It also matters if he makes his claim on the basis of conversing with the spirits, reading tea leaves, seeking guidance from god, feeling an alien presence, astrological charts, interpreting Tarot cards, measuring the colour of his "aura" or any other entirely subjective methodology. Subjective methodologies which amount to nothing more than irrational claims of "I believe".
    Your "world view" assertion utterly fails to differentiate between the validity of forming conclusions in an evidentially supported and logically consistent manner as compared to the multitude of subjective and incoherent decision-making strategies people employ.
    As a result you are forced to conclude that the proposed possibility of life on other planets is evidentially and logically equivalent to the proposed existence of deities, Immaterial Pink Unicorns and a whole host of other such wholly un-evidenced "absurdities".
    No matter how you phrase it, no matter how you conceive it, the two proposals are not evidentially or logically equivalent.
    Whatever conclusion you may come to regarding the actual probability of life on other planets the possibility of such a thing, and thus the validity of the question, is derived from the scientific method.
    Whatever conclusion you may come to regarding the existence of any particular god or deity is not based on any objective evidence or scientific methodology. Even the question of a particular god actually existing requires that we accept the subjectively derived validity of the question itself. Why would anyone rationally actually believe in something for which there exists no evidence to imply that the something in question even might possibly exist?
    It is irrational. Whether your world view allows you to accept this or not.
    Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
    Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
    Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

  • This message is a reply to:
     Message 212 by RAZD, posted 03-02-2009 9:34 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 214 by mark24, posted 03-03-2009 4:37 PM Straggler has replied

      
    mark24
    Member (Idle past 5215 days)
    Posts: 3857
    From: UK
    Joined: 12-01-2001


    Message 214 of 375 (500970)
    03-03-2009 4:37 PM
    Reply to: Message 213 by Straggler
    03-03-2009 2:46 PM


    Re: The difference is where you go when you run out of evidence and logic
    Straggler,
    Mark24 initially claimed that the number of planets in the universe had no bearing on the probability of extraterrestrial life existing elsewhere in the universe. No matter what other factors may also be relevant this assertion is just mathematically false.
    I never made that claim. I said that the number of planets didn't equate to evidence that exraterrestrial life exists. I concede that it would increase the likelihood, but having shitloads of planets isn't evidence that life exists elsewhere.
    I pointed this out to compare it with the IPU, which also has no evidence, or the deists god which also exists in a vacuum of evidence. Accepting one thing without evidence & rejecting another invokes the logical fallacy of special pleading & is intellectually hypocritical.
    Perhaps I should have said "an acceptable level of evidence", either way, it's still special pleading.
    Other than that, good post.
    Mark
    Edited by mark24, : No reason given.

    There are 10 kinds of people in this world; those that understand binary, & those that don't

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 213 by Straggler, posted 03-03-2009 2:46 PM Straggler has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 215 by Straggler, posted 03-03-2009 6:04 PM mark24 has not replied

      
    Straggler
    Member
    Posts: 10333
    From: London England
    Joined: 09-30-2006


    (1)
    Message 215 of 375 (500992)
    03-03-2009 6:04 PM
    Reply to: Message 214 by mark24
    03-03-2009 4:37 PM


    Re: The difference is where you go when you run out of evidence and logic
    Firstly apologies for using your name in vain.....
    RAZD has decided that your opinions regarding extraterrestrial life are the lynch-pin of his argument in favour of regarding all conclusions relating to directly unevidenced phenomenon as being equally subjective.
    I never made that claim. I said that the number of planets didn't equate to evidence that exraterrestrial life exists.
    Nor did I. I said that it increased the relative likelihood of extraterrestrial life existing.
    I concede that it would increase the likelihood, but having shitloads of planets isn't evidence that life exists elsewhere.
    It is however objective, empirical evidence that increases the likelihood of such a claim being true.
    I pointed this out to compare it with the IPU, which also has no evidence, or the deists god which also exists in a vacuum of evidence.
    There is no such thing as a vacuum of evidence.
    Alien life is a possibility derived from the objective scientific evidence that we currently have available. A possibility whose likelihood can be debated, and indeed empirically investigated, in terms of rational, logical and evidential factors. Factors such as the number of planets in the universe.
    Gods, deities, the IPU etc. etc. etc. In contrast are not possibilities that have been derived from objective, scientific evidence. Nor can claims of their existence be evaluated in objective scientific terms. The proposed possibility of such entities has no rational or empirical foundation.
    Accepting one thing without evidence & rejecting another invokes the logical fallacy of special pleading & is intellectually hypocritical
    Accepting and evaluating the possibility of something which is the result of objective evidence and the scientific method is very very very different to accepting and evaluating the possibility of something for which there is no evidence based reason to even think might exist.
    Perhaps I should have said "an acceptable level of evidence", either way, it's still special pleading.
    Is there a level of objective evidence sufficient to make the possible existence of extraterrestrial life a valid scientific question? Regardless of the actual likelihood concluded.
    Is there an "acceptable" level of evidence to make the possible existence of the IPU or any given deity a valid scientific question?
    That is the difference.
    Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 214 by mark24, posted 03-03-2009 4:37 PM mark24 has not replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 216 by RAZD, posted 03-03-2009 11:48 PM Straggler has replied

      
    RAZD
    Member (Idle past 1425 days)
    Posts: 20714
    From: the other end of the sidewalk
    Joined: 03-14-2004


    Message 216 of 375 (501066)
    03-03-2009 11:48 PM
    Reply to: Message 215 by Straggler
    03-03-2009 6:04 PM


    Re: The difference is where you go when you run out of evidence and logic
    First off, thanks mark24 for reaffirming your position:
    I said that the number of planets didn't equate to evidence that exraterrestrial life exists. I concede that it would increase the likelihood, but having shitloads of planets isn't evidence that life exists elsewhere.
    As opposed to the Straggler position that the sheer number of planets made alien life probable. When I pointed out that there was other evidence that countered the issue of numbers you rejected it.
    RAZD has decided that your opinions regarding extraterrestrial life are the lynch-pin of his argument in favour of regarding all conclusions relating to directly unevidenced phenomenon as being equally subjective.
    No, they are just proof that your claim of being able to reach logical and consistent conclusions is false when you are beyond testable scientific evidence and logic.
    What the difference in conclusions show is that the results are more subjective than objective or logical reasoning, and that once you reach that point in the argument, that you cannot show one opinion to be valid and another invalid.
    Nor did I. I said that it increased the relative likelihood of extraterrestrial life existing.
    Ah now you are backing down? Do you want to track down your original statement on the probability of life or should I?
    Alien life is a possibility derived from the objective scientific evidence that we currently have available. A possibility whose likelihood can be debated, and indeed empirically investigated, in terms of rational, logical and evidential factors. Factors such as the number of planets in the universe.
    Gods, deities, the IPU etc. etc. etc. In contrast are not possibilities that have been derived from objective, scientific evidence. Nor can claims of their existence be evaluated in objective scientific terms. The proposed possibility of such entities has no rational or empirical foundation.
    But you still end up in the same position, regardless of whether you think one starts on evidence and the other doesn't.
    Is there a level of objective evidence sufficient to make the possible existence of extraterrestrial life a valid scientific question? Regardless of the actual likelihood concluded.
    Which leads us to the question of if (a) there is a probability of life, then (b) are the claims of UFO peoples valid, as they are based on a level of objective evidence that you say makes alien life probable?
    If not, then where do you draw the line in the logic train?
    Where does the probability end?
    single cell life
    multicell life
    life with differentiated tasks
    life with organs
    life with skeletons
    life that can manipulate objects
    life that can manipulate it's local environment
    life that can make objects
    life that can make local environments
    life that can send objects into space
    life that can send life into space
    life that can send objects out of their planetary system boundaries
    These are all equally probable based on our sample of one out of all known planets.
    One can also ask how much a million years head start on technology would affect the equations - and it would not be unreasonable to suggest that alien life had such a head start, unless you want to plead that human life is special.
    Does this make UFO's reasonable to believe in?
    There is no such thing as a vacuum of evidence.
    So there is evidence of UFO visits?
    Enjoy

    we are limited in our ability to understand
    by our ability to understand
    Rebel American Zen Deist
    ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
    to share.


    • • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 215 by Straggler, posted 03-03-2009 6:04 PM Straggler has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 217 by Straggler, posted 03-04-2009 8:57 AM RAZD has seen this message but not replied
     Message 224 by Straggler, posted 03-04-2009 8:29 PM RAZD has replied

      
    Straggler
    Member
    Posts: 10333
    From: London England
    Joined: 09-30-2006


    (1)
    Message 217 of 375 (501096)
    03-04-2009 8:57 AM
    Reply to: Message 216 by RAZD
    03-03-2009 11:48 PM


    Possibility and Probability
    You really really really are gettting the wrong end of the stick here. Maybe I am being unclear in my terminology. Maybe the conceptual difference between possibility and probability is too subtle and I need to be more explicit in what I actually mean here.
    THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE
    The possibility of life on other planets is derived from the firm objective evidential foundation of knowing that life exists on this planet and knowing that other planets exist. Regardless of how probable one thinks this is you need to be neither Sherlock Holmes nor Einstein to conclude that the possibility of life on other planets is thus an evidentially supported and logically valid area of scientific investigation.
    Given this evidential basis the probability of of life on other planets can then be objectively evaluated in terms of what we know about the nature of life and the number of planets available to spawn such phenomenon. Conclusions regarding the probability of extraterrestrial life existing will depend on the information available. Nobody is disputing that. I don't believe that I have ever disputed that. I thought I had repeatedly stated that the objectivity of the factors involved was the important thing. Not the absolute probability.
    Hopefully this is now clear.
    THE POSSIBILITY OF UNEVIDENCED ENTITIES
    The perceived possibility of any particular god or deity actually existing is derived from a purely subjective basis with no objective evidential foundation whatsoever. We have no objective reason to even consider the possible existence of such a thing. By even asking the question as to whether we believe in a particular entity of this sort the questioner is assuming a degree of validity to their subjective interpretation which I deny is rationally justified.
    The probability of any such unevidenced entities actually existing can only be objectively considered in terms of the observed propensity for humankind to invent such things. As there is no other objective evidence available on which to evaluate such a claim.
    THE DIFFERENCE
    Essentially the difference between the atheist and the deist is one of intellectual consistency. In the presence of objective evidence both the atheist and the deist will dismiss the un-evidenced possibilities out of hand. Where there is no objective evidence the atheist continues to eliminate un-evidenced possibilities out of hand whilst the deist suddenly abandons rationality and embraces at least one such concept on the basis of faith.
    AFTERTHOUGHT
    BTW - The possibility of the IPU and his friends are all equally as objectively unfounded as is any other god or deity. Hence the comparisons that you find so annoying.
    However you look at it the difference between the atheist and the deist boils down to Faith Vs Reason. As I have been saying for two threads now.
    Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
    Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 216 by RAZD, posted 03-03-2009 11:48 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 218 by Percy, posted 03-04-2009 10:12 AM Straggler has replied
     Message 222 by mark24, posted 03-04-2009 7:58 PM Straggler has replied

      
    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 22479
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 4.7


    Message 218 of 375 (501105)
    03-04-2009 10:12 AM
    Reply to: Message 217 by Straggler
    03-04-2009 8:57 AM


    Re: Possibility and Probability
    Straggler writes:
    However you look at it the difference between the atheist and the deist boils down to Faith Vs Reason. As I have been saying for two thread now.
    Just a slight clarification concerning me personally. For me as a deist it isn't a case of faith versus reason. When I'm thinking spiritually I realize my beliefs are based upon faith. When I'm thinking scientifically I'm hopeful my criteria are based upon evidence and reason. I would never consider mixing or attempting to reconcile the two, so it's never a case of one versus the other. It would be like trying to reconcile the rules of tennis with the rules of football - such an attempt would make no sense at all.
    --Percy

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 217 by Straggler, posted 03-04-2009 8:57 AM Straggler has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 219 by Straggler, posted 03-04-2009 12:18 PM Percy has replied
     Message 227 by RAZD, posted 03-04-2009 11:11 PM Percy has not replied

      
    Straggler
    Member
    Posts: 10333
    From: London England
    Joined: 09-30-2006


    (1)
    Message 219 of 375 (501117)
    03-04-2009 12:18 PM
    Reply to: Message 218 by Percy
    03-04-2009 10:12 AM


    Re: Possibility and Probability
    OK. This sounds very much like Gould's 'seperate and complimentary magisteria' argument.
    Is that the sort of thingh that you had in mind?
    A topic for another thread perhaps.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 218 by Percy, posted 03-04-2009 10:12 AM Percy has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 220 by Percy, posted 03-04-2009 2:02 PM Straggler has not replied

      
    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 22479
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 4.7


    Message 220 of 375 (501127)
    03-04-2009 2:02 PM
    Reply to: Message 219 by Straggler
    03-04-2009 12:18 PM


    Re: Possibility and Probability
    Straggler writes:
    OK. This sounds very much like Gould's 'seperate and complimentary magisteria' argument.
    Is that the sort of thingh that you had in mind
    As I was writing that post I thought it likely the association with Gould's views might be drawn, but looking at me from within myself it doesn't feel the same as what Gould is saying. Science and religion don't feel like two things I'm consciously keeping separate. They're such different things that the possibility of disagreement between them would never occur to me. Anyone who thinks an explanation is required doesn't share my views. That's why I've contributed so little to this thread. For me it isn't something you can explain, it's just what happens to be within you.
    --Percy

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 219 by Straggler, posted 03-04-2009 12:18 PM Straggler has not replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 221 by mark24, posted 03-04-2009 7:46 PM Percy has replied

      
    mark24
    Member (Idle past 5215 days)
    Posts: 3857
    From: UK
    Joined: 12-01-2001


    Message 221 of 375 (501168)
    03-04-2009 7:46 PM
    Reply to: Message 220 by Percy
    03-04-2009 2:02 PM


    Re: Possibility and Probability
    Percy,
    They're such different things that the possibility of disagreement between them would never occur to me.
    Isn't that what intellectual compartmentalisition is?
    Mark

    There are 10 kinds of people in this world; those that understand binary, & those that don't

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 220 by Percy, posted 03-04-2009 2:02 PM Percy has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 223 by Percy, posted 03-04-2009 7:59 PM mark24 has replied

      
    mark24
    Member (Idle past 5215 days)
    Posts: 3857
    From: UK
    Joined: 12-01-2001


    Message 222 of 375 (501169)
    03-04-2009 7:58 PM
    Reply to: Message 217 by Straggler
    03-04-2009 8:57 AM


    Re: Possibility and Probability
    But given there is no such thing as a vacuum of evidence, is there therefore evidence of UFO's?

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 217 by Straggler, posted 03-04-2009 8:57 AM Straggler has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 225 by Straggler, posted 03-04-2009 8:40 PM mark24 has replied

      
    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 22479
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 4.7


    Message 223 of 375 (501170)
    03-04-2009 7:59 PM
    Reply to: Message 221 by mark24
    03-04-2009 7:46 PM


    Re: Possibility and Probability
    mark24 writes:
    Isn't that what intellectual compartmentalisition is?
    Well, sort of. I can, I suppose, slightly agree about the compartmentalization part, but when it comes to my spiritual beliefs I don't think there's much of any intellectual nature to them, so I disagree about that part.
    And I could even agree more strongly with the compartmentalization part as long as it isn't interpreted as implying any conscious application. In the same way that it takes people no effort to keep even similar things like sewing and knitting separate, there is no effort involved in me keeping my religious and scientific perspectives separate. They aren't separate because I keep them separate, but because that's just the way I'm constructed.
    And if you want to delve to a slightly lower level, I of course realize that that is only my internal perception of how I'm constructed.
    --Percy

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 221 by mark24, posted 03-04-2009 7:46 PM mark24 has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 236 by mark24, posted 03-05-2009 1:59 PM Percy has replied

      
    Straggler
    Member
    Posts: 10333
    From: London England
    Joined: 09-30-2006


    (1)
    Message 224 of 375 (501174)
    03-04-2009 8:29 PM
    Reply to: Message 216 by RAZD
    03-03-2009 11:48 PM


    Terminology
    RAZD writes:
    Do you want to track down your original statement on the probability of life or should I?
    Firstly I think that this is a distraction and a means of avoiding the points made regarding the evidential basis of some claims as compared to others.
    Do you intend to respond to any of the actual points made?
    Or are you going to pursue this as a means of avoiding the real issues?
    The use of the term 'probable' has undeniably been employed by me. Given that the scientific consensus, and my own opinion, actually agrees with this assessment mixing of this term with the subtly different concept of relative likelihood actually required by my argument is "probably" inevitable to some degree.
    However to make out that I have suddenly changed position is complete nonsense. As you would know if you had ever actually read any of my previous responses to your or Mark24 specifically regarding this matter.
    Most recently:
    Mark24 writes:
    I said that the number of planets didn't equate to evidence that exraterrestrial life exists. I concede that it would increase the likelihood, but having shitloads of planets isn't evidence that life exists elsewhere.
    Straggler writes:
    Nor did I. I said that it increased the relative likelihood of extraterrestrial life existing.
    RAZD writes:
    Ah now you are backing down? Do you want to track down your original statement on the probability of life or should I?
    But over a week ago I wrote to you:
    Straggler writes:
    The absolute probability is irrelevant. It is a mathematical fact that the greater the number of planets the greater the relative likelihood of life on other planets is. If Mark24 denies this he is just mathematically wrong. As are you.
    Here - Message 99
    Nearly two weeks ago I wrote to Mark24:
    Straggler writes:
    It doesn't matter. The relative probability has still been significantly increased even if the absolute probability remains too low to be considered at all likely or to actually happen
    Straggler writes:
    Quibble about the actual likelihood if you want. But there can be no doubt that the probability increases as we increase the number of possible instances. That is just maths.
    Relative likelihood is what we are talking about here.
    RAZD's logical argument completely fails to incorporate any such notions and is thus inadequate in any practical sense.
    Here - Message 49
    To Iano on the same note:
    Straggler writes:
    If we accept that abiogenesis is physically possible then no matter how absolutely unlikely it may be the more planets there are in the universe the greater the probability of it actually occurring. This is mathematically indisputable.
    RAZD's strict logical argument + irrational "world view" assertion is incapable of taking this relative probability into account.
    Even earlier I wrote:
    Straggler writes:
    Based on the available evidence we can hypothesise the relative likelihood of alien life existing or not.
    Where I first raised the whole issue of extraterrestrial life as an example, nearly three weeks ago now, I wrote:
    Straggler writes:
    If we accept that your strict logical argument is an insufficient basis upon which to conclude the relative likelihood of specific cases then we can move things forward.
    We could try and examine the real basis on which unevidenced claims that do not actually contradict any evidence are really evaluated with regard to their relative plausibility and likelihood.
    We can then determine whether these factors are indeed reasonable and rational or whether such judgements are wholly subjective.
    Here Message 123
    In numerous posts in both threads I have talked about relative likelhood rather than absolute probability. Along the lines of:
    Straggler writes:
    Because there is evidence that we can apply when assessing the relative likelihood of opposing possibilities.
    As evidenced here Message 131
    So are you still going to quibble over terminology? Or are you going to accept that my argument, even if not the terminology employed, has remained consistent and actually deal with the points made?
    Namely that the possibility of some claims are derived from objective evidence and are thus inherently scientific whilst the proposed possibility of other claims, such as gods and deities, have no evidential basis whatsoever.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 216 by RAZD, posted 03-03-2009 11:48 PM RAZD has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 226 by RAZD, posted 03-04-2009 11:07 PM Straggler has replied

      
    Straggler
    Member
    Posts: 10333
    From: London England
    Joined: 09-30-2006


    (1)
    Message 225 of 375 (501175)
    03-04-2009 8:40 PM
    Reply to: Message 222 by mark24
    03-04-2009 7:58 PM


    Re: Possibility and Probability
    Mark24 writes:
    But given there is no such thing as a vacuum of evidence, is there therefore evidence of UFO's?
    There is no firm objective evidential foundation for the claimed possibility that we have been visited by alien spacecraft. No.
    The only evidence that suggests such a thing even might be true are wholly subjective claims of personal experience.
    In contrast we have a wealth of objective evidence in favour of the fact that humanity is prone to making false claims of this nature.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 222 by mark24, posted 03-04-2009 7:58 PM mark24 has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 232 by mark24, posted 03-05-2009 10:17 AM Straggler has replied

      
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