Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 85 (8950 total)
35 online now:
DrJones*, Minnemooseus (Adminnemooseus), PaulK (3 members, 32 visitors)
Newest Member: Mikee
Post Volume: Total: 867,004 Year: 22,040/19,786 Month: 603/1,834 Week: 103/500 Day: 0/61 Hour: 0/2


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   What are the Odds ?
riVeRraT
Member (Idle past 259 days)
Posts: 5746
From: NY USA
Joined: 05-09-2004


Message 1 of 8 (509127)
05-18-2009 9:22 PM


Haven't been here in a while, but when this happened to me, I thought of all the mathematicians who frequent this site, and thought you might get a kick out of it. It is also a good story.

My church had a faith in action campaign where we close the doors of the church on Sunday morning and go out into the community and do pre-arranged community projects of all sorts.

I led a group, and we cleaned out a town lot that will be a future public garden. I arrived at the lot at 9:30am and after cleaning/weedwacking for an hour, and about 20 feet in from the road, I happened across 5 trout. Yes I said trout. They were laying there kind of perfect. They did not smell. I poked at them with a stick, and they were fresh trout. I live in a lake community but there is no trout in the lake. They were 5 nice trout too. We all looked at it, and could not make any sense of it. That was Sunday, yesterday.

So today, I went to my first customer, who belongs to a fish and game club about a 1/2 hours drive from were I live. He lives about a 2 miles from were the lot is with the trout. I told him the story of the trout. He says to me, "I know were the trout came from." My eyebrow went up. He said, our club had a fishing contest for the young people. The limit was 5. He is aware of another member of the club that lives near were I found the trout. Not exactly sure. He said that he doesn't like trout, and he was there at the contest, and his nephew caught the 5 fish. So I said, but they would have smelled. He told me the contest was at 7am in the morning, and they were done by 8, and probably home by 8:30. He also tells me that he drove a SUV, so I said a blue Jeep liberty? He told me yes. He said there should be a bumper sticker on the back on the vehicle with the name of the club. I saw that SUV, and when I told my son (who was there with me) he remembered the vehicle, and the bumper sticker too. He lived next door to the empty lot.

So what are the odds of me finding this out, coupled with the odds that I would run into 5 fresh trout on a Sunday morning doing a church project.

Yes, I played lotto today.


Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Thugpreacha, posted 05-29-2009 7:17 AM riVeRraT has not yet responded
 Message 3 by RAZD, posted 05-29-2009 7:31 AM riVeRraT has not yet responded
 Message 4 by LucyTheApe, posted 05-29-2009 7:33 AM riVeRraT has not yet responded
 Message 7 by Hyroglyphx, posted 06-05-2009 11:34 PM riVeRraT has not yet responded

  
Thugpreacha
Member
Posts: 13371
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 2 of 8 (510235)
05-29-2009 7:17 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by riVeRraT
05-18-2009 9:22 PM


by the way
So whats the difference between "odds" and coincidence?

BTW has anyone seen The Strange Coincidences Archives ?


"All that we call human history--money, poverty, ambition, war, prostitution, classes, empires, slavery--[is] the long terrible story of man trying to find something other than God which will make him happy."--C.S.Lewis
* * * * * * * * * *
“The world has achieved brilliance without wisdom, power without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.”--General Omar Bradley
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
"The free man owns himself. He can damage himself with either eating or drinking; he can ruin himself with gambling. If he does he is certainly a damn fool, and he might possibly be a damned soul; but if he may not, he is not a free man any more than a dog." -GK Chesterson

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by riVeRraT, posted 05-18-2009 9:22 PM riVeRraT has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 20326
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 3 of 8 (510236)
05-29-2009 7:31 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by riVeRraT
05-18-2009 9:22 PM


1
the odds are 1 that it happened.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by riVeRraT, posted 05-18-2009 9:22 PM riVeRraT has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by mark24, posted 05-29-2009 10:28 AM RAZD has responded

  
LucyTheApe
Inactive Member


Message 4 of 8 (510237)
05-29-2009 7:33 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by riVeRraT
05-18-2009 9:22 PM


Phat writes:

So what are the odds of me finding this out, coupled with the odds that I would run into 5 fresh trout on a Sunday morning doing a church project.

About 1


There no doubt exist natural laws, but once this fine reason of ours was corrupted, it corrupted everything.

blɛz paskal


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by riVeRraT, posted 05-18-2009 9:22 PM riVeRraT has not yet responded

  
mark24
Member (Idle past 3534 days)
Posts: 3857
From: UK
Joined: 12-01-2001


Message 5 of 8 (510259)
05-29-2009 10:28 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by RAZD
05-29-2009 7:31 AM


Re: 1
1:1? 1 is probability, not odds. :p


There are 10 kinds of people in this world; those that understand binary, & those that don't

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by RAZD, posted 05-29-2009 7:31 AM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by RAZD, posted 05-29-2009 9:01 PM mark24 has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 20326
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 6 of 8 (510309)
05-29-2009 9:01 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by mark24
05-29-2009 10:28 AM


Re: 1
Hi Mark24

1:1? 1 is probability, not odds.

Yes, soitenly.
But we don't know the :n, all we know is the 1 time it happened (which is what makes it so odd)

Enjoy.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by mark24, posted 05-29-2009 10:28 AM mark24 has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5877
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 7 of 8 (511059)
06-05-2009 11:34 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by riVeRraT
05-18-2009 9:22 PM


A game of odds
Well, let's say that you flip a coin 100 times and 99 times it lands on tails. What are the odds that it will land on heads?

Answer: 50/50

Just like all the other tosses.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by riVeRraT, posted 05-18-2009 9:22 PM riVeRraT has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by NosyNed, posted 06-06-2009 1:21 AM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8868
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
Member Rating: 7.2


Message 8 of 8 (511084)
06-06-2009 1:21 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Hyroglyphx
06-05-2009 11:34 PM


What is happening....
Well, let's say that you flip a coin 100 times and 99 times it lands on tails. What are the odds that it will land on heads?

Answer: 50/50

Just like all the other tosses.

That may be what the math says but the real world says that there it is more reasonable to think that one of your assumptions about the coin is wrong. It is not a fair coin is a better thing to conclude.

The odds that it will land on heads is very low.

Edited by Admin, : Fix quote.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Hyroglyphx, posted 06-05-2009 11:34 PM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2018 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.0 Beta
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2019