Haven't been here in a while, but when this happened to me, I thought of all the mathematicians who frequent this site, and thought you might get a kick out of it. It is also a good story.
My church had a faith in action campaign where we close the doors of the church on Sunday morning and go out into the community and do pre-arranged community projects of all sorts.
I led a group, and we cleaned out a town lot that will be a future public garden. I arrived at the lot at 9:30am and after cleaning/weedwacking for an hour, and about 20 feet in from the road, I happened across 5 trout. Yes I said trout. They were laying there kind of perfect. They did not smell. I poked at them with a stick, and they were fresh trout. I live in a lake community but there is no trout in the lake. They were 5 nice trout too. We all looked at it, and could not make any sense of it. That was Sunday, yesterday.
So today, I went to my first customer, who belongs to a fish and game club about a 1/2 hours drive from were I live. He lives about a 2 miles from were the lot is with the trout. I told him the story of the trout. He says to me, "I know were the trout came from." My eyebrow went up. He said, our club had a fishing contest for the young people. The limit was 5. He is aware of another member of the club that lives near were I found the trout. Not exactly sure. He said that he doesn't like trout, and he was there at the contest, and his nephew caught the 5 fish. So I said, but they would have smelled. He told me the contest was at 7am in the morning, and they were done by 8, and probably home by 8:30. He also tells me that he drove a SUV, so I said a blue Jeep liberty? He told me yes. He said there should be a bumper sticker on the back on the vehicle with the name of the club. I saw that SUV, and when I told my son (who was there with me) he remembered the vehicle, and the bumper sticker too. He lived next door to the empty lot.
So what are the odds of me finding this out, coupled with the odds that I would run into 5 fresh trout on a Sunday morning doing a church project.
"All that we call human history--money, poverty, ambition, war, prostitution, classes, empires, slavery--[is] the long terrible story of man trying to find something other than God which will make him happy."--C.S.Lewis * * * * * * * * * * â€œThe world has achieved brilliance without wisdom, power without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.â€--General Omar Bradley * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * "The free man owns himself. He can damage himself with either eating or drinking; he can ruin himself with gambling. If he does he is certainly a damn fool, and he might possibly be a damned soul; but if he may not, he is not a free man any more than a dog." -GK Chesterson
Well, let's say that you flip a coin 100 times and 99 times it lands on tails. What are the odds that it will land on heads?
Just like all the other tosses.
That may be what the math says but the real world says that there it is more reasonable to think that one of your assumptions about the coin is wrong. It is not a fair coin is a better thing to conclude.