Evolution does not have any "knowledge" and hence even if a "flying model" was better, evolution couldn't end up with an almost identical result through random mutation.
It depends on the environment and the population size. If you have a small number of individuals, then yes, the chance of it evolving is lower than if there are a large number of individuals. Assuming the environment is such that flying is better than not flying, from a reproductive success standpoint, and the basic bodyplan of the individual already comes with the necessary precursor apparatus, then any mutation would have to build on what is already there, and so will probably end up with something similar.
It is entirely possible, depending on the number of changes since the original flying type, for an exactly opposite mutation to occur, resulting in a wing that is genetically identical to the original, but it is more likely that a merely similar one would arise.
Edited by Perdition, : No reason given.