A point about probability

This video shows a man getting a hole in one on a par 3 hole by happening to hit his ball so that it lands on the green, rolls, bounces off of his opponents ball, and drops in the hole. For all those math whizzes out there that are so good at calculating how impossible evolution is, what is the probability that this man would be able to hit this shot? I'm betting the odds against it are super high. Does that mean that it didn't happen? Should I disregard the evidence that is this video, because, obviously, it's just too improbable? /point

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We have many intuitions in our life and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong. The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?
-Dan Ariely

Thread copied here from the A point about probability thread in the Links and Information forum.

... this just proves the power of prayer ...Enjoy.

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we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

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• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOh. How did I not see that before?

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We have many intuitions in our life and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong. The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?
-Dan Ariely

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For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
Dr. Carl Sagan

If I may also ask the OP, what's the probability that there is going to be a 'pattern' to his shot ?

what exactly do you mean by that?

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We have many intuitions in our life and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong. The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?
-Dan Ariely

Well I mean you described a 'pattern' in your OP: And then you asked what was the probability of that particular pattern to happen. I asked what was the probability that a pattern would happen.I answered with a question which I hope will help find an answer to yours.EDIT: The answer to my question will help to answer yours Edited by slevesque, : No reason given.

Gotcha, thanks for clearing that up.

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We have many intuitions in our life and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong. The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?
-Dan Ariely

A shame this discussion didn't continue

Hi Slevesque, Probably because there are too many unknowns to even know how to begin to calculate the probabilities.Players
What club player is using
How well he knows the course
Weather
Condition of green
Slope/s of green
How many balls on the green
Distribution of balls from pin
etc
etc
...
including, perhaps the most important: how many different combinations of balls, hits and trajectories would end up with a hole in one.This is the basic problem with trying to calculate realistic probabilities for any physical action -- if you don't know all the possible outcomes then you can't figure the possibilities.This is why the "it's so improbable it can't have happened" argument fails every time - calculations are based on assumptions, often silly and false assumptions.Enjoy.

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we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

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• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

I would like to add that the circumstances are a bit deceptive. The fact that the shot is a long way away and a par 3 is irrelevant; the guy is an excellent golfer *trying* to get it in the hole (or at least on the green). Also, what are the chances that one ball will roll in the same direction as another ball? Assuming an imperfect green... pretty likely I would say.Was it extremely unlikely? Sure. But I don't think it was as unlikely as it might at first appear.

Yeah, well I understood that quite well. But I would've liked the OP to answer my question ...Oh well, there are plenty of other subjects I suppose

That was partially my point in posting this in the first place, and this is also often the case when talking about the probabilities in evolution and adaptation or abiogenesis. If you try to take each individual occurrence in this golf clip and calculate the odds of it happening in a vacuum, sure, this shot seems completely improbable. But if you put it into context, it doesn't really seem that crazy.

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We have many intuitions in our life and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong. The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?
-Dan Ariely

Well, I guess I don't really see it as pattern, more as a series of events. I mean, in my mind, a pattern implies some amount of reiteration. Maybe it doesn't for you. However, what is the probability that a series of events would occur after the golfer hit the ball, the answer is, of course 1. There are also probably numerous series of events that would end with the ball in the hole on the first shot, which means the probability of a hole-in-one is much higher than the probability of a hole-in-one happening exactly the way it did.

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We have many intuitions in our life and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong. The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?
-Dan Ariely