Rahvin writes:
Our "gut," our basic sense of credulity, is so flawed as to be worse than useless, literally counterproductive, when trying to ascertain what is or is not likely.
Quite so. Most people are appalling statisticians. When the lottery in a neighbouring state has a staggering jackpot, people are prepared to drive long distances in order to buy a ticket, neglecting the fact that, statistically, they are more likely to die in a car crash on the way than to win the jackpot. Even a person who buys fifty tickets
a week will only win the jackpot about once every 30,000 years, on average. (Source:
The Making Of The Fittest - DNA and the ultimate forensic record of evolution, by Sean B. Carroll.)
By the way, my compliments, Rahvin, on some of your recent contributions to this thread. Well thought out, well expressed, well done.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
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