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Author Topic:   Evolution and Probability
MarkAustin
Member (Idle past 3815 days)
Posts: 122
From: London., UK
Joined: 05-23-2003


Message 3 of 104 (51993)
08-23-2003 5:59 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by dillan
08-23-2003 12:25 AM


All statistical calculations of this type type related to evolution are nonsense on stilts.
Probabalistic calculations can only be applied in one of two cases:
1: When all the events in the chain are random and unconnected to each other. The classic example of this is in throwing a coin. The result of one throw does not affect another: regardless of the number of heads in a run, the probability of throwing a head remains 0.5. However, the probability of certain results for a number of throws can be calculated exactly.
2: When all the possible paths and their likelihood is known. This can only be done ex post facto. In this case you can analyse a past event and state the odds of having achieved the percieved event.
Neither holds for evolution.
Evolutionary events are not isolated - one event influences the possible sequence of future events, therefore statistical analysis is impossible.
The number of possible events is unknowable - therefore the probabilities cannot be calculated after the event.
Performing such calculations as are common on creationists sittes is a sure sign of mathematical illiteracy.
The only statistical figure that can be derived for life is that the probability of life on Earth is 1.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by dillan, posted 08-23-2003 12:25 AM dillan has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by dillan, posted 08-25-2003 12:16 AM MarkAustin has not replied

  
MarkAustin
Member (Idle past 3815 days)
Posts: 122
From: London., UK
Joined: 05-23-2003


Message 9 of 104 (52494)
08-27-2003 12:14 PM


You've missed the point
Dillan, your reply shows that you've wholly missed my point.
To restate, if events in a probabalistic chain are linked - as are evolutionary eevents since every change in an organism allows certain others not previously allowable and prohibits certain other changes previously allowable - theoretical probabalistic calculations regardless of the sophistication of your mathematics and assumptions are simply not possible.
All such calculations, regardless of their sophistication are invalid.

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by Fred Williams, posted 08-27-2003 6:15 PM MarkAustin has replied

  
MarkAustin
Member (Idle past 3815 days)
Posts: 122
From: London., UK
Joined: 05-23-2003


Message 19 of 104 (52610)
08-28-2003 4:51 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by Fred Williams
08-27-2003 6:15 PM


Re: No, we know what your point is...
quote:
quote:
To restate, if events in a probabalistic chain are linked - as are evolutionary eevents since every change in an organism allows certain others not previously allowable and prohibits certain other changes previously allowable - theoretical probabalistic calculations regardless of the sophistication of your mathematics and assumptions are simply not possible.
Translation: The mathematical evidence is devastating for my position, so I’ll pretend the assumptions are too vague to produce reliable results.
I'm not querying the assumptions made. My objection is more fundamental.
It is a fundamental axiom of probabalistic maths that it only applies if the individual events are separate and distinct. If there is any connection, the probabilities are incalculable without full knowledge of all the events and their individual probabilities, something which is impossible in this case. I suggest that you read a good beginners book on statistics.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Fred Williams, posted 08-27-2003 6:15 PM Fred Williams has not replied

  
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