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Author | Topic: A Modern Day Miracle Man - Establishes the Supernatural Realm | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PaulK Member Posts: 17822 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
quote: You were the one who introduced the idea of trying to estimate the frequency of crashes. You are the one who came up with the figures. I'm just doing the math. And that math comes out as an average of one crash every 4 days.
quote: All of which is completely irrelevant. Look, I've got a maths degree. Basic probability theory is NOT a problem for me.
quote: That did not happen in 2007 or 2008 as I've already told you. It seems that you are the one ignoring previous posts - AND not bothering to actually check the figures. It hasn't happened so far in 2009 either.
quote: In other words I told the truth. TB Joshua never actually said that a crash WOULD happen on any specific day. He just gave a list of numbers and made it even vague by suggesting a crash on any day from the 17th to the end of the month (which is how it is interpreted). It was very, very likely that at least one. Even worse for you the only crashes listed on planecrashinfo.com for January 2009 occurred on the 4th and the 15th.If we grant that the crashes really did occur then the planecrashinfo.com database must be missing a lot of crashes because there are 6 missing from just the 17th to the 31st of January ! So the 1 crash every 4 days is an underestimate, because TB Joshua counts crashes that aren't recorded in the database. And as we have seen if it didn't happen in January, the prophecy could be extended to other months. TB Joshua didn't SAY January, so if the crashes didn't happen in January you would have said that he meant February or March or whenever... We can even go further and point out that the crash on the 27th was of a mail plane with no passengers and no fatalities. "...it’s either you miss your flight; it’s either something happens 17, 27, 28." ? - not on the 27th. Nobody needed to miss their flight then.
quote: Except that I wasn't lying as your quote demonstrates.
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9076 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.7 |
You do realize don't you that Asia is the largest continent in the world and July is the height of monsoon season, don't you.
quote:Source quote:Source And since when would you refer to a coastal place as being on the border. This is ludicrous. Do we say, New York or Los Angeles are on the border? Oh yeah, you can define words anyway you want
Border : the line that separates one country, state, province, etc., from another; frontier line: You cannot cross the border without a visa. You could make an ambiguous "prophecy" like this almost any week of the year and there would be places that fit this. Also, he made the prophecy 9 days before. Do you know anything about meteorology? It is quite common to have forecasts 12-15 days out. It is easy to anticipate heavy rainfall from a major system even further out than that.Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along. Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
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Huntard Member (Idle past 2295 days) Posts: 2870 From: Limburg, The Netherlands Joined: |
Cedre writes:
No it isn't. 25% is not rare. Go ask a statistician. Further,ore, it is 25% over 50 years. with plain flight s increasing exponentially in the last 25 years or so, I'm willing to bet the figure is even higher.
What! Are you kidding that is rare, and when its considered along with the evidence I give in my posts, it becomes fatally rare. Anyway the specific dates, reduces the possibility that this was a guess by a great deal.
Not really.
If it isn't so rare as you claim, can you make a prediction in your next post giving specific dates like TB Joshua did and we shall see if you prediction comes to pass.
He didn't give a specific date, now did he. I'll predict there will be a plane crash involving a family on a future Wednesday of the month. Don't pray, it won't matter anyway.
Lets look at the odds of a traveler being in a plane crash, further revealing how rare it is
Yes, for the individual. For A planecrash to happen, those odds aren't nearly as low. And are, as you yourself showed, quite high.Winning the lottery jackpot? (1 in 14 million) being struck by lightning? (1 in 20 million) Your odds of these two things are actually BETTER than being in an airplane crash (1 in 25 million)Source(s): National Safety Council I hunt for the truth I am the one Orgasmatron, the outstretched grasping handMy image is of agony, my servants rape the land Obsequious and arrogant, clandestine and vain Two thousand years of misery, of torture in my name Hypocrisy made paramount, paranoia the law My name is called religion, sadistic, sacred whore. -Lyrics by Lemmy Kilmister of Motorhead
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Cedre Member (Idle past 1490 days) Posts: 350 From: Russia Joined: |
You do realize don't you that Asia is the largest continent in the world and July is the height of monsoon season, don't you. quote: From about mid June, for about a month, it is the monsoon season where it often rains. Sourcequote: The climate is typical of this stretch of the Black Sea coast i.e. very wet. SourceAnd since when would you refer to a coastal place as being on the border. This is ludicrous. Do we say, New York or Los Angeles are on the border? Oh yeah, you can define words anyway you want Border : the line that separates one country, state, province, etc., from another; frontier line: You cannot cross the border without a visa. You could make an ambiguous "prophecy" like this almost any week of the year and there would be places that fit this. Also, he made the prophecy 9 days before. Do you know anything about meteorology? It is quite common to have forecasts 12-15 days out. It is easy to anticipate heavy rainfall from a major system even further out than that.Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along. None of this hurts the prophecy, it only shows your obduracy to keep on disbelieving in God. Two days elapsed from the time of the prophecy and it fulfillment, two days and in the places they were said they would happen. he mentioned the prophecy again 2 days before it started unfolding. border:A line that indicates a boundary. A coastline indicates a boundary between the land and the sea. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.
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Cedre Member (Idle past 1490 days) Posts: 350 From: Russia Joined: |
Lets look at the odds of a traveler being in a plane crash, further revealing how rare it is Winning the lottery jackpot? (1 in 14 million) being struck by lightning? (1 in 20 million) Your odds of these two things are actually BETTER than being in an airplane crash (1 in 25 million)Source(s): National Safety Council Yes, for the individual. For A planecrash to happen, those odds aren't nearly as low. And are, as you yourself showed, quite high. Who travels on planes? Individuals' right, not just planes right but individuals and according to the above its quite rare for an individual to be in a plane crash. You cannot argue with the numbers, like I said the proof is in the numbers, and you want to fight that. It clearly suggests that its more likely to be struck by lighting than to be in plane crash, which speaks volumes about the rate of plane crashes. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.
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Cedre Member (Idle past 1490 days) Posts: 350 From: Russia Joined: |
furthermore like I said in the previous post this accidents are not predetermined to happen once every four days, they can in fact happen more than once or not at all. All of which is completely irrelevant. Look, I've got a maths degree. Basic probability theory is NOT a problem for me. It isn't irrelevant, it affects the crash rate of planes, if every one day in four days is supposed to witness a crash than we should see a crash in that manner, according to what you are suggesting.
That did not happen in 2007 or 2008 as I've already told you. It seems that you are the one ignoring previous posts - AND not bothering to actually check the figures. It hasn't happened so far in 2009 either. and this year so far did all months report crashes.
TB Joshua never actually said that a crash WOULD happen on any specific day. Again you are lying as I have shown using his own words, he does mention the particular dates at first and only later on does he go on to say that from 17th to the end of the month, of course the crashes did start happeneing on the 17th and continued all the way up to the end of the month, but it happened on specific dates even though it started on the 17th it didn't just go on non stop it happened on specific dates following the 17th which TB Joshua did mention.
Those who are flying, please take Psalm 91. If you are going to fly: 17, 27, 28," And he says in between 17, 27, 28. Write it down the Psalm 91 and sort of meditate on it. "...It’s either you miss your flight; it’s either something happens 17, 27, 28." You are so fond of twisting facts to achieve your own ends.
And as we have seen if it didn't happen in January, the prophecy could be extended to other months. Joshua was talking about the January month here no other month and its clear from the prophecy, again you want to blur the facts. And furthermore the prophecy was fulfilled in January on the dates he spoke of. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.
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Michamus Member (Idle past 5157 days) Posts: 230 From: Ft Hood, TX Joined: |
Cedre writes:
Nay sir. Your ability to believe in the complete absence of substantiating evidence, a completely vague and obscure rambling is incredible.
his prophecy is still too incredible
I need not wonder what makes you believe the way you do, because I was once that way too. You know the truth about God, and we are merely denying the OBVIOUS evidence. Sadly though, what you consider evidence, is only an illusion of words. A dance of equivocation that shows how limitless the human imagination can be.
Cedre writes:
It is no more detailed than the supposed Nostradamus Prophecies. In fact... I can prove to you that I am a prophet too.
no amount of babbling will change the fact that the prophecy was very detailed
You will have an accident. I am seeing that it will happen on the 12, 27, or 29th. Praying won't help, because it is God's will. All I can say is avoid being near or in traffic on those dates. Now Cedre... imagine you get in a traffic accident on the 29th of December 2027. Holy crap! I was right on all three numbers! I am truly a prophet! (29/12/2027) Or you could get in hit by a truck tomorrow. Wammo! I am truly a prophet! I warned you that you should stay away from traffic on the 27th, and my prophecy came true! Do you see now?
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Cedre Member (Idle past 1490 days) Posts: 350 From: Russia Joined: |
Okay now I should really get going. This chat i slowing me down and keeping me from attending to the other commitments that I have. See you all on Monday.
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Coragyps Member (Idle past 734 days) Posts: 5553 From: Snyder, Texas, USA Joined: |
and according to the above its quite rare for an individual to be in a plane crash. I'll bet it's even rarer to have plane crashes with no individuals aboard..... "The wretched world lies now under the tyranny of foolishness; things are believed by Christians of such absurdity as no one ever could aforetime induce the heathen to believe." - Agobard of Lyons, ca. 830 AD
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Huntard Member (Idle past 2295 days) Posts: 2870 From: Limburg, The Netherlands Joined: |
Cedre writes:
Again, yes. but the prediction was not that a certain individual would be killed in a planecrash. The prediction was A planecrash would happen on a Friday. And according to your own figures, that chance was 25%. I suggest you read up on statistics, because you don't seem to be understanding them.
Who travels on planes? Individuals' right, not just planes right but individuals and according to the above its quite rare for an individual to be in a plane crash. You cannot argue with the numbers, like I said the proof is in the numbers, and you want to fight that.
I'm not fighting the numbers, you don't understand what they're saying. You're own numbers say that the chance for a planecrash to happen on any particular day are 25%.
It clearly suggests that its more likely to be struck by lighting than to be in plane crash, which speaks volumes about the rate of plane crashes.
The rate of planecrashes for any particular day as per your numbers is 25%. It matters fuck all what the odds for the individual are to die in a planecrash for this prophecy. I hunt for the truth I am the one Orgasmatron, the outstretched grasping handMy image is of agony, my servants rape the land Obsequious and arrogant, clandestine and vain Two thousand years of misery, of torture in my name Hypocrisy made paramount, paranoia the law My name is called religion, sadistic, sacred whore. -Lyrics by Lemmy Kilmister of Motorhead
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Cedre Member (Idle past 1490 days) Posts: 350 From: Russia Joined: |
Nay sir. Your ability to believe in the complete absence of substantiating evidence, a completely vague and obscure rambling is incredible. Saying nay won't make it so. I'm afraid sir you are in complete and absolute denial, of the clear proof of this man's prophetic gift, if you were really open-minded and after the truth, all the evidence I have brought forth thus far would have been enough for you, but you are holding hold to your current believes like a clamp. The short amount of time that elapsed for his prophecies to actualize would have already caused you to pause and wonder, really hard about a few important issues.
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Cedre Member (Idle past 1490 days) Posts: 350 From: Russia Joined: |
Again, yes. but the prediction was not that a certain individual would be killed in a planecrash. The prediction was A planecrash would happen on a Friday. And according to your own figures, that chance was 25%. I suggest you read up on statistics, because you don't seem to be understanding them. You don't understand them, and what is this you say here, "but the prediction was not that a certain individual would be killed in a planecrash. The prediction was A planecrash would happen on a Friday.", but plane crashes do involve individuals whether you wanna admit it or not, Sir please I have given you enough evidence, showing how rare plane crashes are, and you keep on saying that they aren't rare. Well, they are as I have shown repeatedly why do willingly refuse to apply your mind.
I'm not fighting the numbers, you don't understand what they're saying. You're own numbers say that the chance for a planecrash to happen on any particular day are 25%. My same numbers reveal how rare it is 25%, is a rare occurrence and the number of months that are without plane crashes is staggering. and further proof is provided on the site i gave about how extremely rare it is to be in a plane crash, even rarer than being struck by lighting.
It matters fuck all what the odds for the individual are to die in a planecrash for this prophecy. i'm sorry it does matter, individuals fly planes and board planes and if its rare for them to get into a plane crash, it does say a lot about the frequency of plane crashes therefore as I said 25% is not a common event. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17822 Joined: Member Rating: 2.2 |
quote: No, it is irrelevant. If one crash happens every 4 days we should expect to see several in the 17th to 31st January. Because there are so many flights run by so many different organisations with so many different crews we can take them as being largely statistically independent. And the figures agree - there is no month without a crash from 2007, 2008 or 2009.
quote: This year IS 2009, so you are just repeating what I told you. Despite your opinion that there must be many months without crashes there has not been one in 2007, 2008 or 2009. And as we have seen the numbers in planecrashinfo.com do NOT include all the crashes that occur.
quote: Again, I am not lying. He never explicitly said that a crash would happen on any of those days.
quote: Isn't it amazing how the truth makes you so angry.
quote: He didn't explicitly say which month. The only reason you say he meant January is because you found enough crashes. If there hadn't been you would be just as adamant that he meant some other month, You've already demonstrated that.
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Cedre Member (Idle past 1490 days) Posts: 350 From: Russia Joined: |
No, it is irrelevant. If one crash happens every 4 days we should expect to see several in the 17th to 31st January. Because there are so many flights run by so many different organisations with so many different crews we can take them as being largely statistically independent. And the figures agree - there is no month without a crash from 2007, 2008 or 2009. but not on the exact dates they were predicted, why did it have to be on the 17th instead of the 18th, why not the 19th etc, if they all both stand an equal chance of witnessing a plane crash. why did it start exactly on the 17th as said By TB Joshua and end exactly on the date again given by him? Secondly It isn't irrelevant, if pilots are more careful, and control towers do their jobs better less crashes will be reported in the face of the probability you chuck out. Many things affect the rate of plane crashes and its not all black and white like you are maintaining. there are many air travels all throughout a month not only at month ends.
This year IS 2009, so you are just repeating what I told you. Despite your opinion that there must be many months without crashes there has not been one in 2007, 2008 or 2009. And as we have seen the numbers in planecrashinfo.com do NOT include all the crashes that occur. Plane crashes are rare events as I have shown many times already, and they can happen on any day of the week on any day.
[qs]Again, I am not lying. He never explicitly said that a crash would happen on any of those days.[qs]
he did actually, when he said that " Even when you are about to be checked in, something will happen that you will not be able to go — if it is going to take your life. It’s either you miss your flight; it’s either something happens. 17, 27, 28. " He says that you will miss those flights for one reason or another, he mentions that if the plane ride will end up taking your life something will stall you or delay you causing you to miss it. in other words if you will not survive the accident and end up dying God will put a seal on your body somewhere keeping you from entering the plane.
He didn't explicitly say which month. The only reason you say he meant January is because you found enough crashes. If there hadn't been you would be just as adamant that he meant some other month, You've already demonstrated that. There were in fact crashes on those days he warned people from boarding them in January, this cannot be explained as a guess, the specific dates make it impossible. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given. Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.
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cavediver Member (Idle past 3643 days) Posts: 4129 From: UK Joined: |
It clearly suggests that its more likely to be struck by lighting than to be in plane crash, which speaks volumes about the rate of plane crashes. What are my chances of winning the UK National Lottery tonight? What are the chances of someone winning the UK National Lottery tonight? I can't believe something like this needs explaining.
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