And chance of *someone* winning the lottery in any given draw? Around 2 in 3
Your odds of these two things are actually BETTER than being in an airplane crash (1 in 25 million)
And the chance of *someone* being in a plane crash on any given Friday is about 1 in 4...
So, let's say he specifies three different fridays - that's a prob of someone dying of 1-(3/4)3 = 0.58, or better than 1 in 2 of someone dying on any friday out of a choice of three.
Adieu folks gotta go, see you all on Monday. I have forwarded many many posts, go to them before you ask a question or set forth a challenge because there is a chance I might have already answered it. See you on Monday.
quote:
but not on the exact dates they were predicted, why did it have to be on the 17th instead of the 18th, why not the 19th etc, if they all both stand an equal chance of witnessing a plane crash. why did it start exactly on the 17th as said By TB Joshua and end exactly on the date again given by him?
As I have pointed out, the prophecy was not that specific. (And there were no fatal crashes on the 27th anyway).
quote:
Secondly It isn't irrelevant, if pilots are more careful, and control towers do their jobs better less crashes will be reported in the face of the probability you chuck out. Many things affect the rate of plane crashes and its not all black and white like you are maintaining. there are many air travels all throughout a month not only at month ends.
And if they are less careful etc etc. there will be more crashes. It IS irrelevant,
quote:
Plane crashes are rare events as I have shown many times already, and they can happen on any day of the week on any day.
As has been shown they are not rare at all. On average 1 in 4 days will see a crash according to the planecrashinfo.com database which includes NONE of the crashes cited as "proof" of the prophecy. So they are far more common than even the common "1 in 4" figure suggests.
quote:
he did actually, when he said that " Even when you are about to be checked in, something will happen that you will not be able to go — if it is going to take your life. It’s either you miss your flight; it’s either something happens. 17, 27, 28. "
And on the 27th that wasn't true.
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There were in fact crashes on those days he warned people from boarding them in January, this cannot be explained as a guess, the specific dates make it impossible.
Withotu an accurate figure for plane crashes it seems unlikely. If we assume (conservatively ) that there are 3 times as many crashes as planecrashinfo.com records then there will be a crash on most days. The odds of success are not bad, even without the possiblity of moving the goalposts.
As I have pointed out, the prophecy was not that specific. (And there were no fatal crashes on the 27th anyway).
stop lying geez, you are fond of telling untruths, I encourage all of you to have a look at the prophecy and see just How accurate it is, TB Joshua Mentions specific dates and the accidents happened on those exact dates and no other date. He was very very accurate.
Secondly It isn't irrelevant, if pilots are more careful, and control towers do their jobs better less crashes will be reported in the face of the probability you chuck out. Many things affect the rate of plane crashes and its not all black and white like you are maintaining. there are many air travels all throughout a month not only at month ends.
And if they are less careful etc etc. there will be more crashes. It IS irrelevant,
How is it irrelevant if when they are more careful the accidents are minimized and when they aren't they increase. How can this be irrelevant, your claims are irrelevant.
As has been shown they are not rare at all. On average 1 in 4 days will see a crash according to the planecrashinfo.com database which includes NONE of the crashes cited as "proof" of the prophecy. So they are far more common than even the common "1 in 4" figure suggests.
Yet we don't see accidents happening after every four days and so, and in many cases for entire weeks including months as my earlier calculations revealed.
And on the 27th that wasn't true.
Yet another lie, I'm starting to question your honesty; the prophetic message was confirmed for the 27th as a FedEx cargo plane crashed in Lubbock, Texas, on the 27th of January 2009, the second date specified in the prophetic message delivered by Prophet T.B.
Withotu an accurate figure for plane crashes it seems unlikely.
The crashes happened on the specific dates given by the prophet, on exactly those days, it starts on the 17th, as the prophet said, why not on the 16th or the 15th etc and ends at the end of the month as the prophet said again, why not on the 29 or the 1st of the next month. It is highly unlikely, that this could have happened it can only be explained as a miracle.
yoyu cannot ignore the odds I have presented, and especially as it relates to TB Joshua's prophecy, that so explicitly gives the specifc dates.
No he does not give a specific date, he gives more. And we're not ignoring the odds you represented, you just don't use them correctly.
For the second time It means fuck all what the odds are for a specific person to die in a planecrash, the only thing that matters is the odds of a planecrash happening. As Cavediver has demonstrated (thanks!) that chance within this prophecy is more than 1 in 2. Not very low at all. If I had those odds of winning a huge sum, I'd put a lot of money on it.
Edited by Huntard, : No reason given.
I hunt for the truth
I am the one Orgasmatron, the outstretched grasping hand My image is of agony, my servants rape the land Obsequious and arrogant, clandestine and vain Two thousand years of misery, of torture in my name Hypocrisy made paramount, paranoia the law My name is called religion, sadistic, sacred whore. -Lyrics by Lemmy Kilmister of Motorhead
And to make it even more confusing for Cedre, do you know what the odds are of two other players on that table making the exact same hands they did here?
That's right: 1 in 2.7 BILLION.
Is it becoming more clear Cedre?
I hunt for the truth
I am the one Orgasmatron, the outstretched grasping hand My image is of agony, my servants rape the land Obsequious and arrogant, clandestine and vain Two thousand years of misery, of torture in my name Hypocrisy made paramount, paranoia the law My name is called religion, sadistic, sacred whore. -Lyrics by Lemmy Kilmister of Motorhead
Catholic Scientist posted a link to an excellent video on this subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7cGK9OodVY in message Message 38 Theodoric pointed out in message 50 that you have not responded to this post. I would like to bring this back up.
At the very end of the video it updates the status of the main people interviewed in the video:
quote:John Rindel went for an AIDS test on April 12, He is still HIV positive.
Nine year-old Muller Starke went for medical tests on April 18, His heart condition remains unchanged.
Wium Basson died over the weekend.
I have been unable to find reliable, verifiable evidence that this man has cure even a single person. If you have some please produce it.
From this video and many others on YouTube, I've seen a large number of his followers requesting to be cured of "leg cancer" and "back cancer". I know that there is no such thing as "leg cancer"! Do you and his followers? There are cancers of the bone and soft tissue cancers such as sarcoma, oestema, or melamona that can affect the legs, but no "leg cancer". If they can't even diagnose the inflection correctly, how will we know that he has cured anything?
I want to see outside unbiased doctors verify that these people have been cured, this does not include some man jumping around in front of the camera (that's owned and operated by TBJ's own organization at that) with a piece of paper or X-ray images that prove nothing.
...And what's up with all the demon possession? Is this a big problem in Nigeria and other third world countries? I've never met anyone that is possessed by a demon. I've come across schizophrenics and others with severe mental disorders but never any bonafide demon possessed individuals. (yes, I am being sarcastic.)
"Few are those who see with their own eyes and feel with their own hearts." -Albert Einstein
"I would rather have a mind opened by wonder than one closed by belief." ~ Gerry Spence
Take one line that really had little relevance to my main point, and counter it with "Nu uh"?
As for:
Cedre writes:
the clear proof of this man's prophetic gift
I have yet to see any. I even provided you with an identical prophecy provided by me, and an explanation of how there are an almost infinite amount of ways it can be fulfilled.
No matter how you slice it, a few vague statements, and a couple of numbers does not equal a concise prophecy.
Cedre writes:
if you were really open-minded and after the truth, all the evidence I have brought forth thus far would have been enough for you
That's just the thing though, isn't it?
I am completely open minded, and accept that this individual could be right (I even at one point in my life believed in these con artists and their "gifts"). Trouble is, he doesn't really give me much to work with in proving him right. He doesn't even give me a reliable date... just some 2 digit numbers and some statement about a plane.
The difference though is you can't accept that he may be wrong. No amount of evidence placed before you will convince you. People with your dedication of blind faith typically won't even believe the conman's own confession of deceit and manipulation.
It isn't the need for prophecy to be real that drives you. It isn't the need for God to be real that drives you. It isn't even the need for an afterlife that drives you.
It is the need to be the one lone voice that knows the "truth", and is willing to say that truth against all opposition.
In fact, the greater the opposition against your ever increasingly wild ideas, the better it makes you feel. It makes you "realize" that you really must be right, otherwise why would all these people seem to be so angry? I mean, it can't be because you are so blatantly wrong that words can't describe it, and you are completely unwilling to acknowledge even the slightest bit of skepticism... can it?
Cedre writes:
The short amount of time that elapsed for his prophecies to actualize would have already caused you to pause and wonder, really hard about a few important issues.
Perhaps, if I hadn't provided a direct example of how my own prophecy for you could possibly be fulfilled tomorrow.
And what would those important issues be? The fact that there is yet another conman in Nigeria, and people believe him?
--------------------------------- By the way, I am still awaiting a response from the Nigerian FMOH on the "Prayer Healings" and whether people have really been cured of HIV/AIDS in their country. I probably won't have it for a couple more days, if they are anything like the bureaucracy we have in the United States.
How hard they must find it, those who take authority as truth, rather than truth as the authority. -unknown
It's not what you know, it's if you know how to find it. -Me
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stop lying geez, you are fond of telling untruths,
No, it's just that you don't like the truth
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I encourage all of you to have a look at the prophecy and see just How accurate it is, TB Joshua Mentions specific dates and the accidents happened on those exact dates and no other date. He was very very accurate.
You SHOULD look and see how vague it is.
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How is it irrelevant if when they are more careful the accidents are minimized and when they aren't they increase. How can this be irrelevant, your claims are irrelevant.
It is irrelevant because you have utterly failed to show anything that would make it relevant.
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Yet we don't see accidents happening after every four days and so, and in many cases for entire weeks including months as my earlier calculations revealed.
For the first point, that is what we EXPECT to see if the distribution is random. On the second your calculations gave results that are clearly at odds with reality. As you have agreed there were no months without an accident in 2007, 2008 or for so far as we have figures, 2009. So why claim that your meaningless calculations showed anything, other than the fact that you don't understand what you are talking about ?
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Yet another lie, I'm starting to question your honesty; the prophetic message was confirmed for the 27th as a FedEx cargo plane crashed in Lubbock, Texas, on the 27th of January 2009, the second date specified in the prophetic message delivered by Prophet T.B
According to your own Message 78 there were no fatalities, and as a cargo plane it would not have carried passengers anyway. So nobody needed to miss their flight to survive. I spoke the truth.
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The crashes happened on the specific dates given by the prophet, on exactly those days, it starts on the 17th, as the prophet said, why not on the 16th or the 15th etc and ends at the end of the month as the prophet said again, why not on the 29 or the 1st of the next month. It is highly unlikely, that this could have happened it can only be explained as a miracle.
There were TWO crashes on the 15th in the planecrashinfo.com database - which shows how much you care about the accuracy of your claims. Even worse, your own report of the prophecy's "success" includes two more crashes on the 29th as evidence for the prophecy. And now you are claiming that there were NO crashes on the 29th - as evidence for the prophecy. Which just demonstrates what I said - the prophecy is simply not as specific as you try to pretend it is.
You don't know that there were no crashes on the 16th January or on the 1st February any more than you "know" that there weren't any on the 15th or 29th. Not knowing about crashes - even crashes that you yourself reported - isn't much of a miracle.
What am I denying, am I denying what I see with my own eyes, and hear with my own ears, am I denying what many different groups and people have confirmed, there is no evidence against this man, his prophetic claims and miracles are confirmed in news paper articles, and are captured on video and archived but before this they are broadcast live throughout the world and this is confirmed by such news agencies as Africa news
Cedre, this is ridiculous and I feel sorry for you that you are so easily manipulated by this kind of nonsense.
This is not a prophecy, he's playing a game of odds.
He doesn't give a specific time, he doesn't give a specific place, all he says is that there will be a flood somewhere in the world. Well, I am over-fucking-whelmed!!! Amazing!!! Wow!!!
Everyone knows there is a monsoon season somewhere in the world. All he has to do is vaguely state that there will be a flood, and presto!, there will be a flood somewhere simply because it is a statistical destiny.
There will always be a flood somewhere.
If he gave a specific location and a specific date and time, that would lend more credence to his claim. He doesn't commit to that much detail because it's not a prophecy, it's just a matter of time before the next localized flood hits somewhere in the world, especially during the rainy season.
What makes it even more disgusting is that he waits for a flood that can does kill people just so he claim that he was right. So in essence he prays for such disasters.
Listen for yourself how vague and nondescript he gives his prophetic utterances!
Give me a break...
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." --John Adams
Are you kidding that is rare, and when its considered along with the evidence I give in my posts, it becomes fatally rare
So what is the probability there will be at least one fatal crash in a commercial plane between 17th to the 28th day of a month?
Just the 17th: 25% (using your figures) Either 17th or the 18th: 44% the 17th or the 18th or the 19th: 58% and so on 17th, thru 28th inclusive (12 days): 97%
If something happens 97% of the time it is common. These numbers a low for reasons already explained. Therefore the probability that any Tom, Dick or Harry could successfully make this prediction without the need of a divine hand, is greater than 97%.
being struck by lightning? (1 in 20 million)
But if I were to predict that someone in the USA were to be fatally struck by lightning (48 times per year) this October, I have about a 98% probability of my 'prophecy' coming true.
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