Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 63 (9162 total)
1 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 916,385 Year: 3,642/9,624 Month: 513/974 Week: 126/276 Day: 23/31 Hour: 0/1


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   A Modern Day Miracle Man - Establishes the Supernatural Realm
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 276 of 297 (527344)
10-01-2009 2:46 AM
Reply to: Message 269 by tuffers
09-30-2009 11:16 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Thanks for those figures, tuffers. They are worse than I suspected, even after noting that planecrashinfo.com was badly incomplete. (It would be nice to see a link, though - I like to check things out for myself).
When we consider that TB Joshua's supporters count:
Accidents anywhere in the world.
Helicopter crashes
Crashes with no fatalities
It seems likely that there is at least one qualifying crash on most days.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 269 by tuffers, posted 09-30-2009 11:16 AM tuffers has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 277 by tuffers, posted 10-01-2009 4:20 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 281 of 297 (527374)
10-01-2009 7:28 AM
Reply to: Message 277 by tuffers
10-01-2009 4:20 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Thanks for that. There is a lot more on the site.
Looking at the statistics for January 2009 it seems that there was a crash of a US-registered aircraft almost every day. Add in the rest of the world and it appears overwhelmingly likely that there will be a crash on any day you choose to mention.
The January 2009 "prophecy" must be regarded as completely debunked.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 277 by tuffers, posted 10-01-2009 4:20 AM tuffers has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 282 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 8:42 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 283 of 297 (527414)
10-01-2009 9:20 AM
Reply to: Message 282 by Cedre
10-01-2009 8:42 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
quote:
Only someone who refuses to think properly will reach the conclusion you have reached? Let me ask you a few questions that I expect you to answer with honesty.
I will certainly answer honestly. You will doubtless respond with more unfounded personal attacks.
quote:
1) Why were plane crashes more likely to happen everyday in the January month as you say?
I did not say any such thing. And you must remeber that I was talking about the WHOLE of January 2009 - not just the second half, which TB Joshua's "prediction" covered.
quote:
2) Was there an unseen force that was causing all of these planes to crash almost everyday as you have said?
There is no evidence to suggest that the situation is in anyway abnormal and therefore no need to invoke any "unseen force".
quote:
2) Or are these crashes the result of pilot error, or did plane manufactures just construct crappy planes for the January month?
I expect that many are pilot error. But what difference does that make ?
quote:
4) Why didn't the crashes carry on into the February month, and if the February month had fewer planes that crashed what might explain this?
I never said that they did not carry on into February. In fact the figures show a crash of a US-registered plane every day in February 2009 except for the 13th.
quote:
Just because a plane crash happened on a previous day there is no guarantee it will happen the next day;
5) If you argue there is a guarantee what is this guarantee founded on?
I never said that there was an absolute guarantee. All I am saying is that the figures show that TB Joshua's "prediction" was utterly unimpressive.
quote:
What's my point? my point is plane crashes are random events, they are not prearranged
That is what I've been saying all along.
quote:
they are also rare according to statistics
No, they aren't - at least not in any relevant sense. That has been shown time and again in this thread.
quote:
GA crashes may not be as rare as airliner accidents, but by just looking at the numbers we cannot fully tell the risk of something.
You can by looking at the RIGHT numbers. But that is what you call "refusing to think properly".
quote:
At times a few weeks may pass before the next crash or just a few days, some months have more crashes than other months, this is what we would expect to notice about a totally random event.
That is not what the figures show - nor is it what I would expect.
quote:
Therefore you cannot write off the prophecy of TB Joshua with this argument.
So your idea of "thinking properly" is rejecting the real data in favour of your imagined data. I don't think that many people would agree.
quote:
Especially since his prophecy was right on the nose, accidents did happen on all the dates he gave in his prophecy.
Exactly as anybody knowing the figures would expect. Predicting a highly probable outcome is hardly impressive, nor evidence of the supernatural.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 282 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 8:42 AM Cedre has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 284 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 9:28 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 285 of 297 (527420)
10-01-2009 9:38 AM
Reply to: Message 284 by Cedre
10-01-2009 9:28 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Here is the NTSB list of crashes for January
Remember that they only cover American registered private planes, so there will be many crashes not included.
I predict that there will be air accidents on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th of this month (October 2009). People who have real confidence in their claims accept valid challenges. Which is why your refusal was so telling.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 284 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 9:28 AM Cedre has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 286 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 9:51 AM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17825
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 288 of 297 (527426)
10-01-2009 10:06 AM
Reply to: Message 286 by Cedre
10-01-2009 9:51 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
I coudl call you a lot of things, but I won't. I suggest that you learn the same restraint.
quote:
Yes I concede defeat on this particular point, go ahead jeer at me call me an idiot a fool, I don't mind. Note I'm only changing my position regarding the frequency of GA crashes, nothing else. I still stand my ground that commercial airliners crash less frequently
Then I guess you still don't understand. Nobody said that commercial airliners crash frequently. Everyone agrees that those crashes are relatively uncommon events typically happening maybe 5-6 times a year (I think that we can assume that planecrashinfo.com is reasonably complete for those. On a quick glance I found 4 for 2008 and 7 for 2007.)
However TB Joshua DIDN'T successfully predict any crashes of commercial airliners. That is why it is wrong to use the figures for commercial airliners - BECAUSE they are rare, compared to the sum of the various types of crashes used to claim success.
The simple lesson is be consistent. Use the same rules for determining success as for determining the chance of success through guessing. It seems obvious to me.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 286 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 9:51 AM Cedre has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 291 by Perdition, posted 10-01-2009 1:44 PM PaulK has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024