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Author Topic:   Omphalism
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 135 of 151 (554521)
04-08-2010 5:54 PM
Reply to: Message 134 by New Cat's Eye
04-08-2010 5:44 PM


Re: Let's Pretend.....
Maybe we are talking at cross purposes. Let me phrase my questions more succinctly and ask them one at a time.
Do you think we can rationally consider the empirically evidenced conclusion regarding the age of the Earth as more likely to be correct than incorrect?
Or not?
Edited by Straggler, : Spelling

This message is a reply to:
 Message 134 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-08-2010 5:44 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 136 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-09-2010 10:04 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 137 of 151 (554887)
04-10-2010 6:44 PM
Reply to: Message 136 by New Cat's Eye
04-09-2010 10:04 AM


Re: Let's Pretend.....
Do you think we can rationally consider the empirically evidenced conclusion regarding the age of the Earth as more likely to be correct than incorrect. Or not?
At first glance, I'm thinking no. How could you determine that?
So rationally we should be agnostic towards the age of the Earth with no one conclusion being any more likely than any other?
Is that what you are saying?
If that is not what you are saying then which conclusion regarding the age of the Earth should we rationally consider as most likely to be correct?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 136 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-09-2010 10:04 AM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 138 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 10:42 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 139 of 151 (555166)
04-12-2010 2:39 PM
Reply to: Message 138 by New Cat's Eye
04-12-2010 10:42 AM


Re: Let's Pretend.....
Straggler writes:
Do you think we can rationally consider the empirically evidenced conclusion regarding the age of the Earth as more likely to be correct than incorrect? Or not?
CS writes:
At first glance, I'm thinking no. How could you determine that?
So (according to you) we cannot consider the empirically evidenced conclusion as more likely to be correct than incorrect. Bizzarre.
Straggler writes:
So rationally we should be agnostic towards the age of the Earth with no one conclusion being any more likely than any other? Is that what you are saying?
CS writes:
No.
OK. So what are you saying? If all conclusions regarding the age of the Earth are not equally likely then which are more (or less) likely than others?
Are you saying that you are capable of using empirical evidence to determine the likelyhood of the empirical conclusion being correct?
You have stated that the empirical conclusion is the most rational one to take (whilst simultaneously asserting that we can have no more confidence in this being correct than incorrect - go figure). Are you citing empirical evidence as the basis upon which to conclude that the empirical conclusion is the most rational conclusion?
But to answer your question - My position is - Conclusions derived from methods of knowing which are demonstrably reliable should rationally be considered as superior to (and more likely to be correct than) conclusions based on methods of knowing that have not been and are unable to be demonstrated as reliable.
If someone claims that the Earth is (approx) 4.5 billion years old I will ask on what epystemological basis this conclusion was made and whether or not they can demonstrate to me that this claimed method of knowing is superior to just guessing. Can they make prediction based on this epystemology which can subsequently be verified? Likewise if someone claims that the Earth was created last Thursday I would ask the same. Does that answer your question?
If that is not what you are saying then which conclusion regarding the age of the Earth should we rationally consider as most likely to be correct?
Your question is nonsense.
Really? I think most scientifically minded people (including- until recently - I would have thought you too) would say that the empirically evidenced conclusion regarding the age of the Earth as being approx 4.5 billion years old is something in which we can have a high degree of confidence as being correct.
Apparently none of us are as wise as you. None of us can see that this conclusion is no more likely to be correct than incorrect and that any confidence in any conclsuion regarding the age of the Earth is misplaced. Oh if only we were all as rational as you CS.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 138 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 10:42 AM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 140 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 2:53 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 141 of 151 (555189)
04-12-2010 3:33 PM
Reply to: Message 140 by New Cat's Eye
04-12-2010 2:53 PM


Re: Let's Pretend.....
I see that you have stopped trying to justify your own muddled position and just started attacking my position instead. Even though I was still in pretend Omphalist mode setting out to show you that your empirical conclusion was no more justfied than my omphalist one. Which given that you stated that the empirical conclusion was no more likely to be true than untrue I would say was a success.
So how much more likely is the empircal conclusion than Last Thursdayism?
Considerably more so. Based on the comparitive demonstrable reliability of the two epystemologies in question.
Are you still claiming that the empirical conclusion regarding the age of the Earth is the rational conclusion despite also stating that rationally we can have no confidence in this conclusion as being more likely to be correct than incorrect?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 140 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 2:53 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 142 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 4:15 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 143 of 151 (555212)
04-12-2010 5:06 PM
Reply to: Message 142 by New Cat's Eye
04-12-2010 4:15 PM


All Conclusions Are Equal But Some Are More Equal Than Others
Its more like I'm avoiding your standard protocol of ignoring my questions while continually telling me what I think.
Given that you have claimed that the empirical conclusion regarding the age of the Earth is no more likley to be correct than incorrect in this thread I wonder whether you even know what you think yourself.
I forgot about pretend Omphalist mode. I've already explained why the empirical conclusion was more justified than the Biblical Omphalism and the answer was the same as yours:
But on what basis do you claim it is more justified than the last Thursdayist conclusion? By your own bizzarre logic the empirical conclusion regarding the age of the Earth is no more likely to be correct than the biblical omphalist one, the Last Thursdayist one or any other date I can pull out of my arse for whatever wholly subjective reason.
Although I phrased it as: Science put a man on the moon, what has Biblical Omphalism done?
Exactly what Last Thursdayism has done. Or Last Yearism or Last Monthism or ........... Last X-ism.
Are you still claiming that the empirical conclusion regarding the age of the Earth is the rational conclusion despite also stating that rationally we can have no confidence in this conclusion as being more likely to be correct than incorrect?
I didn't say we couldn't have confidence in it.
But you did say that we could not consider it as any more likely to be correct than incorect. So apparently you are advocating confidence in conclusions that we should consider just as likely to be wrong as correct.
Now that is funny!
I oppose you using an empystemology to determine its own likelihood of accuracy. You can't use the fact that science works against the very questioning of it working.
All I require is that the method of knowing being proposed is able to lead to conclusions that can be verified. Is that so unreasonable?
Show me the reliability of some non-empirical conclusions using either empirical or non-empirical methods of verification and I will absolutely take them on board as more likely to be correct than not.
How can you show that Last Thursdayism is unlikely?
You can show that the method of knowing used to make the conclusion is unable to make any conclusions that are superior to guessing.
What unreliable explanations of Last Thursdayism have been shown to be wrong so that you can use it as an epystemology to demonstrate against?
How can you show that Last Thursdayism is unlikely? Its precludes your empirical evidence so how can you use it against it?
You are concentrating too much on what is being claimed and not enough on the basis upon which the claim is being made. If I tell you that I just created the entire universe 30 seconds ago with the appearance of empirical age you can no more disprove this claim than Last Thursdayism. But you would (rightly) ask me to show you why you should believe this and treat me as a lunatic or charlatan if I cannot.
Why when it comes to last Thursdayism do you suddenly listen solely to the claim and ignore the wholly irrational basis of the claim?
The question you need to ask yourself is "Why should I believe this claim"? Until you ask that question you will continually find yourself in the ridiculous position of claiming that all conclusions are equally reliable but that some are more reliable than others. As you have done here.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 142 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 4:15 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 144 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 5:38 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 145 of 151 (555226)
04-12-2010 6:14 PM
Reply to: Message 144 by New Cat's Eye
04-12-2010 5:38 PM


Re: All Conclusions Are Equal But Some Are More Equal Than Others
CS writes:
Huh? How could a proposition being on the basis of no reason whatsoever ever be any different than a random guess?
CS writes:
Last Thurdayism is not a method of knowing. Its a philisophical proposition. A 'What-if' scenario.
So if Last Thursdayism is based on no evidence and is merely a "philosophical proposition" why (by your own definition) do you consider it any more likely to be true than simply guessing the age of the Earth? Why would I rationally give Last Thursdayism any more credence than a claim for the age of the Earth pulled out of a hat?
CS writes:
Logic please...
You're inability to show the likelihood of an empirical conclusion being correct does not mean that we should consider it just as likely to be incorrect.
Consistency please. I asked you if we could rationally consider the empirically evidenced conclusion regarding the age of the Earth to be more likely correct than incorrect and you said - No. Are you now changing your mind on that? Is the empirically evidenced age of the Earth more likley to be correct than a simple guess?
Last Thurdayism is not a method of knowing. Its a philisophical proposition. A 'What-if' scenario.
Its set up to require PAP agnosticism.
So how is it different to me claiming that I personally omphalistically created the universe 30 seconds ago? Or are you agnostic to my own deistic abilities as well?
CS writes:
Huh? How could a proposition being on the basis of no reason whatsoever ever be any different than a random guess?
CS writes:
Just because I'm willing to admit that you cannot show that we are more likely not in the Matrix doesn't mean that I'm saying that I think there's a 50/50 chance of being in the Matrix nor that I cannot have any confidence in not being in the Matrix.
Then what the fuck are you saying? That you are rationally confident that you are not in the Matrix whilst rationally considering this possibility as no more likely to be correct than incorrect. What?
You yourself said that unevidenced possibilities can no more be considered as any more likely to be correct than simply guessing. There are a near infinite array of such possibilities. That makes any one of them (Matrix, last Thursdayism etc. etc. etc.) very unlikely to be true.
So is the empirically evidenced conclusion regarding the age of the Earth more likley to be correct than simply guessing the age of the Earth? Or are you going to stick to your position that it is impossible to tell if anything is more likley to be correct than guessing?
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 144 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 5:38 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 146 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 8:01 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 147 of 151 (555563)
04-14-2010 8:03 AM
Reply to: Message 146 by New Cat's Eye
04-12-2010 8:01 PM


Re: All Conclusions Are Equal But Some Are More Equal Than Others
I don't. Its worded as if it is a guess. It could have been Wednesday, or whatever.
Exactly. So the age of the Earth concluded by Last Thursdayism is exactly equal to randomly guessing the age of the Earth. How could it possibly be any different if it is based on no evidence? Who cares how it is worded?
But its not on the basis of no reason whatsoever. Its specifically designed to call into the question of the basis of the empirical evidence.
So you keep saying. But as far as I can see it was invented to show the prepostrousness of omphalistic claims in exactly the same way that the IPU was created to combat the argument of "unknowable" and undetectable deities.
Link writes:
The belief, much like the belief in the Invisible Pink Unicorn, is a parody of one of the many creationist arguments that the universe is only 6000 years old despite having the appearance being of 15 billion years old, with the effect of age being brought about by the creation of starlight in transit, or by creating fossils of creatures which never existed to scatter through rock strata bearing witness to geological ages that never took place. (See the article The Earth created with age ("Omphalos") for further details.)
Last Thursdayism serves to parallel many creationist assertions to illustrate by analogy just how ridiculous these creationist assertions really are. For example, a common apology for the existence of ancient animal fossils is that they were placed by Satan to test the faith of the believer. The last Thursdayist may with equal logic say the same thing about last Wednesday's newspaper. Last Thursdayism
But frankly either way, philosophical or parody, the conclusion that the Earth is no more than a week old with the omphalistic appearance of age is based on nothing that is demonstrably superior to randomly guessing the age of the Earth. And should thus rationally not be considered as any different to randomly guessing the age of the Earth.
So how is it different to me claiming that I personally omphalistically created the universe 30 seconds ago? Or are you agnostic to my own deistic abilities as well?
Its not, but I don't believe you.
Well by your truly fucked up reasoning you are being irrational in disbelieving me. Whilst we all know that anyone who seriously believes this blatantly made-up drivel is in need of psychiatric attention. Cmon CS. Get real here.
So, believing the scientific age of the universe while ackowledging agnosticism to Last Thursdayism is rational and consistant.
I do believe the scientific age of the univers eand I do acknowledge the philosophical possibility of Last Thursdayism. But you cannot believe something without considering it likely to be correct. To claim otherwise is ridiculous.
You cannot have confidence in the conclusion that the Earth is billions of years old whilst simultaneously having no confidence that it is over a week old. That also is ridiculous and contradictory.
Also, the position of disbelieving Last Thursdayism on the basis of the scientific evidence is irrational.
So it is irrational to disbelieve any made-up shit that self justifies itself? The Easter bunny placed me here by magic to annoy you and also omphamistically designed the entire universe 2 months ago so that you would find that claim ridiculous. In fact the more ridiculous you find it the more evidence there is that this claim is true. Now tell me it is irrational to disbelieve this bullshit. I fucking dare you!!
Let's take this step by step.
You first agreed that conclusions based on no evidence and no reasoning were no more reliable than guesses. You then stated that Last Thursdayism was a philosophical proposition, a what if scenario. Not a conclusion based on evidence or reasoning. But you have also stated that it is not rationally possible to consider the empirically evidenced age of the Earth as any more likely to be correct than the Last Thursdayist conclusion.
So the end result of all of this is that you must consider the empirically determined age of the Earth as no more likely to be correct than the Last Thursdayist conclusion. Which itself is no more reliable than a random guess. How can you possibly deny this based on the answers you yourself have given?
Now I know that you don’t actually consider the empirically evidenced conclusion as equivalent in terms of reliability to a random guess. But it is not my fault that the conclusion reached as a result of your step by step reasoning contradicts this. Instead it implies that there is something seriously amiss with your step by step reasoning.
The empirical evidence is unable to suggest that it is more likely that the universe has existed for 4+ billion years.
Then one wonders why we bother to empirically establsh the age of the Earth at all? When an objectively evidenced conclusion vies with a rival objectively un-evidenced but irrefutable and unknowable conclusion is it always rationally unjustifiable to consider the evidenced conclusion as more likely to be correct? Or do you apply this principle of forced agnosticism only to the question of omphlaism? If so why?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 146 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-12-2010 8:01 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 148 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-14-2010 12:37 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 149 of 151 (555619)
04-14-2010 2:42 PM
Reply to: Message 148 by New Cat's Eye
04-14-2010 12:37 PM


Knowing Nothing
Because empirical evidence doesn't lend itself a liklihood of being correct, nor as being more likely than an unfalsifyable conclusion.
Insanity awaits you.
CS your position here, if applied consistently, ultimately means that you can know nothing and that you are entirely and utterly agnostic about absolutely everything. The age of the Earth is just the first of your problems. Try answering these consistently.
1) Is it more likely than a random guess that the Earth was omphamistically created Last Thursday?
2) Is the empirically evidenced conclusion regarding the age of the Earth more reliable than a random guess as to the age of the Earth?
3) Is it rational to believe in something that you have no basis for confidence in being more likely to be correct than a random guess?
4) Are you agnostic about the age of the Earth?
So while you'd have no reason to believe it, you'd also have no empirical evidence that you could use to disbelieve it, and the rational position based on the empirical evidence would be agnosticism.
Aeroplanes don't really fly because of air currents and aerodynamics. They fly because herds of telepathic flying etheral pilchards carry them along whilst telepathically convincing us that laws of aerodynamics are responsible. They also telepathically make you think this proposition is ridiculous.
By your logic you are now not only agnostic about Last Thursdayism and the age of the Earth you are also agnostic about telepathic flying pilchards and the laws of aerodynamics.
And according to you that is the rational conclusion. I have heard it said that the insane are the sanest of all. They certainly are according to you.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 148 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-14-2010 12:37 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 150 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-14-2010 3:30 PM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 151 of 151 (555650)
04-14-2010 6:51 PM
Reply to: Message 150 by New Cat's Eye
04-14-2010 3:30 PM


Re: Knowing Nothing
More likely to be true? I believe that it is, but but that is not a postion arrived at rationally from the empirical evidence.
So no one conclusion can rationally be considered as any more likely to be correct than any other by your definition. But simultaneously you think we can rationally consider some conclusions as more reliable than others. We can also rationally believe in, and have confidence in, some conclusions over others. All without rationally considering any one conclusion as any more likely to be correct than any other. And you see no contradiction here?
You consider reliability, belief and confidence to have absolutely nothing to do with anything that relates to considering conclusions as correct or incorrect, likely or unlikely?
You don't understand my position.
Your position as I do understand it is truly ridiculous.
You are saying that it is irrational and pseudo-skeptical to be highly skeptical that ethereal telepathic flying pilchards are responsible for aeroplanes flying. You are saying that we cannot consider this possibility as more or less likely than air flow and aerodynamics being responsible for aeroplanes flying.
Please tell me I am wrong. Because at this point I am starting to lose the will to live.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 150 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-14-2010 3:30 PM New Cat's Eye has not replied

  
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