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Author Topic:   Induction and Science
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 679 of 744 (593719)
11-28-2010 9:36 PM
Reply to: Message 678 by crashfrog
11-28-2010 8:06 PM


Re: What would induction in science look like
nwr writes:
I consider that kind of statistical inference to be deductive.
crashfrog writes:
Well, ok. What are the axioms?
It is based on Lebesgue integration, where a probability is a measure (as used in Lebesgue integration theory).
I don't think you really want a full discussion of that.
crashfrog writes:
I've done mathematical induction, many times, and I can assure you that theorems are used.
Mathematical induction is very different from the philosophical induction that we are talking about here. Mathematical induction is deductive.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 678 by crashfrog, posted 11-28-2010 8:06 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 680 by crashfrog, posted 11-28-2010 10:06 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 681 of 744 (593727)
11-28-2010 11:05 PM
Reply to: Message 680 by crashfrog
11-28-2010 10:06 PM


Re: What would induction in science look like
crashfrog writes:
Not the axioms for the math, the axioms for the science.
Presumably that depends on the science.
The statistical inference is just using a mathematical modeling tool to handle data.
nwr writes:
Mathematical induction is deductive.
crashfrog writes:
If you insist. So, then, what are the axioms?
The Peano axioms

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 680 by crashfrog, posted 11-28-2010 10:06 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 683 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 12:58 AM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 684 of 744 (593760)
11-29-2010 8:39 AM
Reply to: Message 683 by crashfrog
11-29-2010 12:58 AM


Re: What would induction in science look like
You seem to be arguing against a position that nobody actually holds.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 683 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 12:58 AM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 685 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 12:43 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 688 of 744 (593794)
11-29-2010 2:22 PM
Reply to: Message 685 by crashfrog
11-29-2010 12:43 PM


Re: What would induction in science look like
crashfrog writes:
I'm disappointed that, four years in, you're not yet prepared to actually advance and defend a position.
I have been presenting a position throughout the discussion. You, like the other participants, have ignored it. Apparently, you are unable to see it.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 685 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 12:43 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 689 by Straggler, posted 11-29-2010 2:37 PM nwr has replied
 Message 691 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 4:39 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 690 of 744 (593799)
11-29-2010 2:55 PM
Reply to: Message 689 by Straggler
11-29-2010 2:37 PM


Re: Everyone But You.......
Straggler writes:
If I put a piece of potassium in a glass of water what does science tell us will happen?
Completely off topic for this thread, so I shall continue to ignore it.
Straggler writes:
I refer you to Message 642. You remain refuted.
I was not refuted there, nor elsewhere.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 689 by Straggler, posted 11-29-2010 2:37 PM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 692 by Straggler, posted 11-29-2010 5:23 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 693 of 744 (593815)
11-29-2010 6:05 PM
Reply to: Message 691 by crashfrog
11-29-2010 4:39 PM


Re: What would induction in science look like
crashfrog writes:
But someone who is just interested in playing games would respond as you've been doing - by asserting that nobody understands what you mean, but not doing anything that would help them understand.
I am not playing games.
I have not suggested that "nobody understands." Rather, I have said that it appears to be invisible to them.
I make clear statements that nobody responds to. Then I later point out the message, and still nobody responds.
I don't know why it is invisible. I suspect that it is drowned out by the unstated assumptions that you and others are making - and you are probably not even aware that you are making unstated assumptions.
I recognize that I have not been a successful communicator on this topic. I'm moving on. I suggest you do likewise.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 691 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 4:39 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 694 by Straggler, posted 11-29-2010 6:34 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied
 Message 695 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 9:19 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 697 of 744 (593871)
11-29-2010 11:04 PM
Reply to: Message 695 by crashfrog
11-29-2010 9:19 PM


Re: What would induction in science look like
crashfrog writes:
Straggler gives a great example of someone who's actually engaged in the debate, not playing a game:
quote:
It has been demonstrated to you that science does use induction...It has been demonstrated to you that science does indeed utilises inductive reasoning in it's methods and that it does so to great practical effect.
However, no such thing has been demonstrated.
I have no doubt that you believe it has been demonstrated. Most of the people in this forum are true believers in the religion of inductionism. What's sad, is that you have abandoned your critical thinking skills. You present pseudo-arguments that are based on jumping to conclusions, and claim that you have demonstrated something.
That you believe induction is used is fine. You are entitled to believe that if you think it gives the best explanation. That you present wishy washy non-demonstrative arguments, and claim that they are demonstrations - well that's a problem.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 695 by crashfrog, posted 11-29-2010 9:19 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 700 by Straggler, posted 11-30-2010 7:01 AM nwr has seen this message but not replied
 Message 704 by crashfrog, posted 11-30-2010 3:41 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 706 of 744 (593957)
11-30-2010 4:54 PM
Reply to: Message 704 by crashfrog
11-30-2010 3:41 PM


Re: What would induction in science look like
crashfrog writes:
If it was wrong, and you were someone who debated instead of playing games, you would show that it was wrong.
No actual "demonstration" has been provided, so there is nothing to show wrong.
How about you present a real argument. Start with clearly stated premises, so that there is something asserted that could be challenged. Then provide the logical deduction from those premises to the conclusion.
All that has been presented are woo woo arguments with no actual evidence. They are argument of the form "it just must be so".
crashfrog writes:
Debaters talk about their positions. Game-players talk about the debate. [Message 695]
I'll take that as an admission that you are playing games.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 704 by crashfrog, posted 11-30-2010 3:41 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 707 by crashfrog, posted 11-30-2010 5:25 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied
 Message 708 by bluegenes, posted 11-30-2010 6:04 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 709 of 744 (593978)
11-30-2010 8:22 PM
Reply to: Message 708 by bluegenes
11-30-2010 6:04 PM


Re: Try attacking inductive reasoning in science without using it.
bluegenes writes:
So, can you demonstrate that no inductive reasoning is ever used in science without using inductive reasoning?
I am not trying to prove a negative. I gave reasons to doubt induction. I'm awaiting evidence from induction supporters, that it is actually used.
The reason to doubt induction is there in the text I quoted from SEP, in Message 600. Namely, "all observation is selective and theory-ladenthere are no pure or theory-free observations." If induction is used to form a theory, then the observations must have been made before the theory emerged. That requires that observations be theory-free. If observation is theory-laden, then the theory is used in making the observations, so the observations did not precede the theory.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 708 by bluegenes, posted 11-30-2010 6:04 PM bluegenes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 710 by crashfrog, posted 11-30-2010 8:30 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied
 Message 712 by Straggler, posted 12-01-2010 6:57 AM nwr has seen this message but not replied
 Message 717 by Straggler, posted 12-01-2010 2:40 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 720 of 744 (594086)
12-01-2010 3:48 PM
Reply to: Message 717 by Straggler
12-01-2010 2:40 PM


Re: Why You Are Wrong
Straggler writes:
You advocate Popper’s view of non-inductive science but without the key feature of his thesis required to overcome the need for induction.
Which key feature? If you mean falsification, then that is usually taken as intended to help decide between science and pseudo-science. If it doesn't work for that (and it doesn't), we should abandon it.
When was the last time that an accepted scientific theory was falsified?
Straggler writes:
You advocate instrumentalism without the key tenet of instrumentalism which is that a theory should be judged solely on it's ability to accurately and reliably predict the behaviour of nature in a way that is useful
You are making stuff up.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 717 by Straggler, posted 12-01-2010 2:40 PM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 721 by Straggler, posted 12-01-2010 5:49 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 722 of 744 (594105)
12-01-2010 6:36 PM
Reply to: Message 721 by Straggler
12-01-2010 5:49 PM


Re: Why You Are Wrong
Straggler in Message 717 writes:
You advocate Popper’s view of non-inductive science but without the key feature of his thesis required to overcome the need for induction.
Straggler writes:
I'll agree that Popper's claim to having solved the induction problem rests on his falsification thesis.
You are mixing two things. If induction is not actually used, then falsification is not required in order to overcome the (non-existent) need for induction.
On the other hand, Popper did claim that his falsification solves the induction problem, and I have agreed that he was wrong about that.
Straggler writes:
I challenge you to provide a positive position.
It's there in Message 513 of thread Peanut Gallery.
nwr writes:
When was the last time that an accepted scientific theory was falsified?
Straggler writes:
But here is an example of the scientific ideal as quoted by Dawkins: ...
You don't say which theory. I'm guessing that it was actually an hypothesis that was falsified, rather than a theory. Theories are not hypotheses, and hypotheses are not theories, though sometimes a successful hypothesis can lead to a theory.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 721 by Straggler, posted 12-01-2010 5:49 PM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 723 by Straggler, posted 12-01-2010 7:31 PM nwr has replied
 Message 724 by crashfrog, posted 12-01-2010 7:32 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 725 of 744 (594116)
12-01-2010 8:25 PM
Reply to: Message 723 by Straggler
12-01-2010 7:31 PM


Re: Why You Are Wrong
Straggler writes:
So you agree with non-inductive form of science advocated by Popper ...
No.
I agree with Popper's claim that induction is not actually used. However, I don't otherwise agree with his philosophy of science.
nwr writes:
It's there in Message 513 of thread Peanut Gallery.
Straggler writes:
Absolute fail.
You reject that without even saying why. Your commitment to your religion of inductionism is really really deep.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 723 by Straggler, posted 12-01-2010 7:31 PM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 730 by Straggler, posted 12-02-2010 9:04 AM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 726 of 744 (594117)
12-01-2010 8:27 PM
Reply to: Message 724 by crashfrog
12-01-2010 7:32 PM


Re: Why You Are Wrong
crashfrog writes:
Accepting a theory because it has not yet been falsified is a form of induction.
You have just made religion a form of induction.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 724 by crashfrog, posted 12-01-2010 7:32 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 728 by crashfrog, posted 12-01-2010 10:34 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 731 of 744 (594175)
12-02-2010 12:23 PM
Reply to: Message 730 by Straggler
12-02-2010 9:04 AM


Re: Why You Are Wrong
Straggler writes:
Epic fail. Again.
Bare assertion, with no supporting evidence.
Straggler writes:
Hume identified this problem. Popper sought to solve it through his falsification thesis and is widely regarded as having failed. Apparently you have resolved it where they were unable to.
Wiki on the problem of induction writes:
2. presupposing that a sequence of events in the future will occur as it always has in the past (for example, that the laws of physics will hold as they have always been observed to hold). Hume called this the Principle of Uniformity of Nature.
The problem calls into question all empirical claims made in everyday life or through the scientific method. Although the problem arguably dates back to the Pyrrhonism of ancient philosophy, David Hume introduced it in the mid-18th century, with the most notable response provided by Karl Popper two centuries later.
Either cite in detail your solution to this problem or just concede that you cannot.
I have not claimed to solve that "problem". It's a pseudo-problem. Science doesn't work that way at all.
But thanks for clearly demonstrating that you haven't even been reading what I have been posting.
Edited by nwr, : No reason given.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 730 by Straggler, posted 12-02-2010 9:04 AM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 732 by Modulous, posted 12-02-2010 12:40 PM nwr has replied
 Message 733 by Straggler, posted 12-02-2010 1:54 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6409
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 734 of 744 (594205)
12-02-2010 3:48 PM
Reply to: Message 732 by Modulous
12-02-2010 12:40 PM


Re: Why are you right?
Modulous writes:
I think the 'problem' is describing science in such a way as to avoid using induction, and this is what people are saying you haven't really done in the 209 posts you've made here.
But I have.
When I do so, people could ask for further explanation. Instead, they assert (without evidence) that I am wrong, and then ask questions about potassium.
Here's an example of what science actually does:
  • All the millions of observations have reported that the sun and stars move around a stationary earth;
  • therefore the earth is not at all stationary; it is the sun and stars that are closer to being stationary.

Jesus was a liberal hippie

This message is a reply to:
 Message 732 by Modulous, posted 12-02-2010 12:40 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 735 by Modulous, posted 12-02-2010 4:00 PM nwr has replied
 Message 736 by Panda, posted 12-02-2010 4:36 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
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