Well, I would say there's a third possibility: The question is too difficult to be answered.
The SETI people acknowledge this problem: They are using a single radio telescope, looking over a very small part of the radio spectrum, and only for a certain type of signal.
Think of it this way: We've hidden a secret message in plain sight somewhere in the United States. The only tool you have to find it is a metal detector. That's great if the message happens to be written on something metal, but if it's written using logs on the beach, you'll miss it...assuming you even get to that part of the country in any reasonable amount of time. It isn't that you're stupid...it's that there are so many ways to have the message out there that unless you look in the right way in the right place, it'll pass you by.
The SETI project is a fishing net with a really big mesh. We'll be lucky if anything happens to get caught. If we don't get anything, as crash said, it says nothing about whether or not there was anything to catch.
------------------
Rrhain
WWJD? JWRTFM!
™ Version 4.2