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Author Topic:   Peanut Gallery
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1497 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 886 of 1725 (603641)
02-06-2011 1:34 PM
Reply to: Message 877 by RAZD
02-05-2011 8:58 PM


Re: possibilities and probabilities
This is a straw man for your claim that we can judge some degree of probability, because what you have set up is a situation where the result is known, it is fact, and thus the probability is one if the pen is on the desk and zero if it isn't, there are no in between conditions of knowledge.
This evinces a faulty understanding of probability, most notably the popular myth that the probabilities of things that happened in the past are bivalent; i.e. "1 if they happened" and "0 if they didn't."
Probability is a comparison between outcomes and the outcome space, and the equations for that have no term for time. As you can see:
No term for time; the function P(a) ("the probability of outcome a") returns the same value regardless of whether the event occurred in the past (and thus the result is already known) or is expected to occur in the future (and thus the result is not yet known.) Probabilities in the past are not "one or zero" because probability is the comparison between the outcome and the outcome space, and neither of those change simply because the event occurred in the past or the future.
The result of this is that we absolutely can specify "in between conditions of knowledge" because neither the outcome nor the outcome space will change based on our knowledge about where pens are. If the pen is on the desk, that doesn't change the a priori probability that the pen was on the desk. If the a priori probability was very low, but we found the pen there anyway, that is a very significant outcome. This forms the basis of "Bayesian probability", the notion that low-probability events are more significant than high-probability ones.
If you look at the desk top and do not see the pen then the probability, based on the two remaining possible conditions is 1/2 that the pen is nowhere near the desk (you've eliminated the first by not seeing the pen).
No. Spacial-location probabilities are not based on the number of areas where the object could be found, but on the area of the areas where the object could be found integrated with the distance of the area from the object's current location. So, no, you do not create a probability of "1/2" by eliminating the desk.
You're really demonstrating either a deeply flawed understanding of probability here, or a willingness to pervert even mathematics in service of your religious beliefs. I continue to grieve for the medical misfortune that has befallen one of EvC's once-brightest intellects.
Only when you know the possibilities can you calculate the probabilities.
Not so. Probability is based on the comparison between outcomes and the outcome space. Only in the most textbook cases can the outcome space be fully known but that's not necessary in establishing probability to a significant degree of reliability; the outcome space is dominated, after all, by the most likely probabilities.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 877 by RAZD, posted 02-05-2011 8:58 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 911 by RAZD, posted 02-06-2011 8:21 PM crashfrog has replied

ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 887 of 1725 (603652)
02-06-2011 2:41 PM
Reply to: Message 883 by bluegenes
02-06-2011 10:02 AM


Re: Dust to dust!
Hi bluegenes,
bluegenes writes:
Good try. He didn't.
You are correct he did not know about Pangea.
In 1912 Alfred Wegener first presented his his theory of continental drift.
This is the first knowledge of all land mass being in one place in the past.
Yet the author of Genesis recorded that at one time all land mass was in one place at one time in the past.
How did he know that information 3500 years ago without information that was not available to mankind?
If you desire you can say "I don't know".
I simply believe he received the information from a Super Natural Being as you call Him.
If you have a different source he could have gotten the information please present it.
bluegenes writes:
Then he messes it up big time by putting modern sounding vegetation on the land before creating the sun and the stars, which should have been there for billions of years.
Now you start with the smoke and mirrors.
You said nothing about errors that you believe occured.
You said the ancients having knowledge that was not available to them without outside help.
I presented two pieces of information that the writer of Genesis wrote about that was not available to him.
I can only imagine someone 3500 years ago telling how a human began to exist. It wasn't even talked about 65 years ago.
Yet he recorded that man came from the earth as he was formed of the dust of the ground. It is a scientific fact that mankind has all the elements I presented to you which is found in the earth.
If I understand anything about the origin of life that supposidly evolved into mankind it came from sort of primortal soup.
He also recorded that the land mass was in one place in time past.
That is two pieces of information that was not available 3500 years ago.
Your so called theory is that all God's are made up in the mind of man.
If the author of Genesis did not get this information from a Super Natural Being, where did he get it from?
Let me present another piece of information for your consideration.
And the whole earth was of one language, and of one speech.
How did the author of Genesis know that there was a mother language of all languages.
The information found Here was not available to the author of Genesis. It hasn't been around very long.
Scientific monogenesis: The Mother Tongue theory.
Theories of monogenesis do not necessarily derive from religious belief. Many modern scholars believe in a theory of monogenesis that has come to be called the Mother Tongue Theory. This theory holds that one original language spoken by a single group of Homo sapiens perhaps as early as 150 thousand years ago gave rise to all human languages spoken on the Earth today. As humans colonized various continents, this original mother tongue diverged through time to form the numerous languages spoken today. Since many scientists believe that the first fully modern humans appeared in Africa, the mother tongue theory is connected with a more general theory of human origin known as the Out of Africa theory. Currently, the theory of evolutionary monogenesis tends to be favored by a group of linguists working in the United States.
I have presented 3 pieces of evidence that according to you would falsify your theory.
But you will do here as you have done in the debate with RAZD and ignore anything I have said.
Now if you want to eliminate any of the 3 examples I have given so far all you have to do is present where the author of Genesis obtained his informatin that:
Man came from the dust of the ground.
All land mass was in one place in time past.
That all spoken languages came from one language. Remember there was many languages at the time of the writing of Genesis.
God Bless,

"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 883 by bluegenes, posted 02-06-2011 10:02 AM bluegenes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 890 by onifre, posted 02-06-2011 3:24 PM ICANT has seen this message but not replied
 Message 891 by Modulous, posted 02-06-2011 3:30 PM ICANT has replied
 Message 892 by bluegenes, posted 02-06-2011 3:32 PM ICANT has not replied
 Message 896 by xongsmith, posted 02-06-2011 3:54 PM ICANT has replied

ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 888 of 1725 (603655)
02-06-2011 2:49 PM
Reply to: Message 884 by Coyote
02-06-2011 10:37 AM


Re: Dust to dust!
Hi Coyote,
Coyote writes:
You're cherry picking things that might be interpreted to be accurate.
How about those things that are clearly wrong?
Can I play this game when talking about scientific things?
But out of curosity how many things would I have to come up with that was written about some 3500 years ago that the informtion of actual existence did not occur until the last couple of hundred years to satisfy the possibility of there being some Super Natural Being that gave this information to the authors?
God Bless,

"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 884 by Coyote, posted 02-06-2011 10:37 AM Coyote has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 889 by Coyote, posted 02-06-2011 3:06 PM ICANT has replied

Coyote
Member (Idle past 2136 days)
Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 889 of 1725 (603657)
02-06-2011 3:06 PM
Reply to: Message 888 by ICANT
02-06-2011 2:49 PM


Re: Dust to dust!
But out of curosity how many things would I have to come up with that was written about some 3500 years ago that the informtion of actual existence did not occur until the last couple of hundred years to satisfy the possibility of there being some Super Natural Being that gave this information to the authors?
How about trying to explain the massive boo-boo of the global flood?
Before you try to claim that "dust" equals a host of specific chemicals, try to explain how this "Super Natural Being" missed it so badly with that flood story.

Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 888 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 2:49 PM ICANT has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 894 by bluegenes, posted 02-06-2011 3:42 PM Coyote has seen this message but not replied
 Message 898 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 4:18 PM Coyote has not replied

onifre
Member (Idle past 2980 days)
Posts: 4854
From: Dark Side of the Moon
Joined: 02-20-2008


Message 890 of 1725 (603660)
02-06-2011 3:24 PM
Reply to: Message 887 by ICANT
02-06-2011 2:41 PM


Re: Dust to dust!
Yet the author of Genesis recorded that at one time all land mass was in one place at one time in the past.
How did he know that information 3500 years ago without information that was not available to mankind?
He didn't. He knew of the area around him and that's what he was describing.
You are the one making the giant leap to connect it.
- Oni
Edited by onifre, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 887 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 2:41 PM ICANT has seen this message but not replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 891 of 1725 (603661)
02-06-2011 3:30 PM
Reply to: Message 887 by ICANT
02-06-2011 2:41 PM


Assuming your interpretation is correcyt,
He also recorded that the land mass was in one place in time past.
That is two pieces of information that was not available 3500 years ago.
I don't think we need turn to the supernatural to explain how men that never saw other physical continents went on to describe the world in terms of there being only one.
Nor do we need a deity to explain how a people that crafted pots by shaping clay might have come up with the notion of their own creation stemming from a similar process. Just like with Khnum, Prometheus, Obatala, Nwa and so on.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 887 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 2:41 PM ICANT has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 893 by bluegenes, posted 02-06-2011 3:34 PM Modulous has seen this message but not replied
 Message 899 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 4:29 PM Modulous has replied

bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2507 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 892 of 1725 (603662)
02-06-2011 3:32 PM
Reply to: Message 887 by ICANT
02-06-2011 2:41 PM


Re: Dust to dust!
ICANT writes:
Yet the author of Genesis recorded that at one time all land mass was in one place at one time in the past.
How did he know that information 3500 years ago without information that was not available to mankind?
If you desire you can say "I don't know".
I simply believe he received the information from a Super Natural Being as you call Him.
If you have a different source he could have gotten the information please present it.
Well, I could give you two. One is obvious, if you look at the title of my theory, and the other is observation. Or rather, knowledge he might have from the observations of travellers. His people would only have known of one conjoined landmass, wouldn't they?
click pic to enlarge
Perhaps you should change your avatar.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 887 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 2:41 PM ICANT has not replied

bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2507 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 893 of 1725 (603663)
02-06-2011 3:34 PM
Reply to: Message 891 by Modulous
02-06-2011 3:30 PM


You beat me by 2 minutes.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 891 by Modulous, posted 02-06-2011 3:30 PM Modulous has seen this message but not replied

bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2507 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 894 of 1725 (603664)
02-06-2011 3:42 PM
Reply to: Message 889 by Coyote
02-06-2011 3:06 PM


Re: Dust to dust!
Coyote writes:
Before you try to claim that "dust" equals a host of specific chemicals, try to explain how this "Super Natural Being" missed it so badly with that flood story.
ICANT's just responding to a bit in the GB thread where I said that I had searched the creation myths for knowledge our ancestors couldn't have had. This was in the context that the stories could have been distorted over time, which is why ICANT should have a little more leeway than usual to ignore the obviously wrong parts.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 889 by Coyote, posted 02-06-2011 3:06 PM Coyote has seen this message but not replied

ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 895 of 1725 (603666)
02-06-2011 3:49 PM
Reply to: Message 885 by onifre
02-06-2011 1:13 PM


Re: Harry Potter.
Hi oni,
onifre writes:
1) Why didn't the author just write down the actual elements? Why say "the ground" and not include the actual elements that make up the human body, and leave it up to your interpretation?
2) Why did god need the ground to get those elements? Couldn't he just magically produce those elements and make a human without the use of soil? Which, btw, doesn't contain all of those elements in every location, every single time. Not even all the time.
1. Why would it be necessary for him to name the actual elements in the human body?
Prior to 1 AD the known elements were gold, silver, copper, iron, lead, tin, mecury, sulfer and carbon. During the time from 1 AD to 1735 AD was added Arsenic (Magnus ~1250)
Antimony (17th century or earlier)
Phosphorus (Brand 1669)
Zinc (13th Century India)
Knowledge of all other came after 1735.
Since that information was not given to the author of Genesis it was not avaliable.
2. Since He made the ground He wouldn't have had to use the ground He just chose to do it that way.
I am well aware that all elements are not contained in all soils today. But we are talking about a brand new earth with soil that was not poluted by mankind.
onifre writes:
Some/most soil is crap.
Yes humans have made a mess of it haven't we.
onifre writes:
Well the Chinese had already built a culture, had herbal medicine and time keeping devices which helped them figure out lots of astrological movements when god was creating the first man.
Not if you use my timeline of the first man that was formed from the dust of the ground in the day God created the Heaven and the Earth.
That was several billion years ago if it was not trillions upon trillions of years ago.
onifre writes:
So humans knew the land was rich and that chemistry occured with different processes.
They had very limited knowledge of the elements in the land as I presented above.
Now would you like to give a source for the information that the author of Genesis need to write:
1:9 And God said, Let the waters under the heaven be gathered together unto one place, and let the dry land appear: and it was so.
This would be a picture of Pangea.
And the whole earth was of one language, and of one speech
How would the author of Genesis know that there was only one language at a time in the past? There was many languages when Genesis was written.
Today we have several theories the one that seems to be most accepted today is the Scientific monogenesis: The Mother Tongue theory.
So it is accepted today that at some time in the past there was one language.
Remember I am not trying to prove anything.
I am only pointing out the possibility of a Super Natural Being which would falsify bluegenes so called theory.
God Bless,

"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 885 by onifre, posted 02-06-2011 1:13 PM onifre has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 897 by bluegenes, posted 02-06-2011 4:05 PM ICANT has replied
 Message 901 by onifre, posted 02-06-2011 4:38 PM ICANT has replied
 Message 902 by crashfrog, posted 02-06-2011 4:40 PM ICANT has replied

xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2587
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 6.4


Message 896 of 1725 (603668)
02-06-2011 3:54 PM
Reply to: Message 887 by ICANT
02-06-2011 2:41 PM


Re: Dust to dust!
ICANT writes:
How did he know that information 3500 years ago without information that was not available to mankind?
If you desire you can say "I don't know".
I simply believe he received the information from a Super Natural Being as you call Him.
Maybe he was just fucking lucky? Hey - how many delusionary people are there in recorded history? What are the odds that one of them made a lucky guess?
BUT- Pangaea was not the initial condition, as bluegenes has already pointed out - so even though this guy made a statement that later was shown to have been true in the past, it was not true in the past before that.

- xongsmith, 5.7d

This message is a reply to:
 Message 887 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 2:41 PM ICANT has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 900 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 4:37 PM xongsmith has not replied

bluegenes
Member (Idle past 2507 days)
Posts: 3119
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 897 of 1725 (603669)
02-06-2011 4:05 PM
Reply to: Message 895 by ICANT
02-06-2011 3:49 PM


ICANT writes:
How would the author of Genesis know that there was only one language at a time in the past? There was many languages when Genesis was written.
Please, ICANT darling, think a bit will you? He's invented the story of Adam and Eve and their family. Of course he would see them as speaking one language.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 895 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 3:49 PM ICANT has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 903 by ICANT, posted 02-06-2011 4:48 PM bluegenes has replied

ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 898 of 1725 (603670)
02-06-2011 4:18 PM
Reply to: Message 889 by Coyote
02-06-2011 3:06 PM


Re: Dust to dust!
Hi Coyote,
Coyote writes:
Before you try to claim that "dust" equals a host of specific chemicals, try to explain how this "Super Natural Being" missed it so badly with that flood story.
Coyote I do not have a problem with the flood of the Bible because i believe in Genesis 1:1. "In the beginning God created the Heaven and the Earth".
Since I believe God created the Earth I also believe He can do anything with it He desires.
If it takes a miracle that is no problem.
As I have said in the past I don't argue the flood. I may at times point out things that happen on a daily bases such as the bay of fundy that proves the water could rise 55' in 6 hours and leave in the next 6 hours and leave no evidence of having been there, as pointing to the possibility of the flood. I have designed an ark that has over 18 acres of floor space and for the smaller animals there could be much more added.
But that is not what I am discussing here.
Here I am presenting things that was recorded over 3500 years ago that the information of such was not available at that time.
Now if you have an alternate source that the author of Genesis could have acquired that information please present it.
BTW bluegenes did not say anything about what may or may not be false information.
He said information our ancestors recorded that they did not have access too.
God Bless,

"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 889 by Coyote, posted 02-06-2011 3:06 PM Coyote has not replied

ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 899 of 1725 (603672)
02-06-2011 4:29 PM
Reply to: Message 891 by Modulous
02-06-2011 3:30 PM


Boats
Hi Mod,
Modulous writes:
I don't think we need turn to the supernatural to explain how men that never saw other physical continents went on to describe the world in terms of there being only one.
Since the author of Genesis was raised and educated in Egypt in the house of Pharoah as the son of his daughter why wouldn't he know of different land masses.
Egypt had boats for over 500 years by the time of the writing of Genesis.
God Bless,

"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 891 by Modulous, posted 02-06-2011 3:30 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 910 by Modulous, posted 02-06-2011 6:53 PM ICANT has not replied

ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 900 of 1725 (603674)
02-06-2011 4:37 PM
Reply to: Message 896 by xongsmith
02-06-2011 3:54 PM


Re: Dust to dust!
Hi xong,
xongsmith writes:
BUT- Pangaea was not the initial condition, as bluegenes has already pointed out -
As I understand it Pangaea has happened several times since the earth began to exist. And not always in the same shape.
xongsmit writes:
Maybe he was just fucking lucky?
One would be lucky, 2 would be extra lucky, 3 would be unbelievable but I ain't done yet there are a lot of other things I can present if I choose.
God Bless,

"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 896 by xongsmith, posted 02-06-2011 3:54 PM xongsmith has not replied

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