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Author Topic:   Absence of evidence IS evidence of absence
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1487 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 70 of 89 (66684)
11-15-2003 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 68 by DNAunion
11-15-2003 11:22 AM


Yet there is such a thing as a tentative conclusion, as even you admit.
Yes, and in a scientific context, all conclusions are tentative. So you're trying to draw a distinction that doesn't exist.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 68 by DNAunion, posted 11-15-2003 11:22 AM DNAunion has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1487 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 71 of 89 (66687)
11-15-2003 2:52 PM
Reply to: Message 69 by AdminNosy
11-15-2003 11:23 AM


Re: Mixing threads
It is a collection of null results from selected experiments.
That's not an absence of evidence. That's evidence.
If it takes 100,000 "looks" to search the experimental space we only have proof of absense when we have looked at all 100,000. However, I am not going to be easily convinced that after 99,999 looks we don't have something that we can draw a pretty firm tentative conclusion on. If that is now meaningful how about 99,000?
What would you call it if we concluded that the thing is absent after searching one place in an expermental space of unknown size? You can't make conclusions from an absence unless you know how much of the whole that absence represents.
Which is to say that I totally agree with you. But what you're saying is different than what DNA is saying.

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 Message 69 by AdminNosy, posted 11-15-2003 11:23 AM AdminNosy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 72 by AdminNosy, posted 11-15-2003 5:13 PM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1487 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 73 of 89 (66710)
11-15-2003 5:26 PM
Reply to: Message 72 by AdminNosy
11-15-2003 5:13 PM


As for the other thread I'm not discussing that here.
Nonetheless as the other thread was the context that spawned this thread, it's valid to bring it up. The title of this thread begs the question "evidence for what?" and the answer to that is what DNA was trying to do in the other thread.
I would call that pretty poor reasoning.
Well, it's what DNA was trying to do in the other thread.
If you don't feel that's an appropriate subject for this thread, then I guess I don't have anything else to talk about.

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1487 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 77 of 89 (66850)
11-16-2003 12:55 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Minnemooseus
11-16-2003 12:41 PM


As I have followed this topics discussion, that seems to be (at least generally) DNA's line of reasoning.
I agree that that's a valid and reasonable method, but you'll have to show me where DNA said that. Especially the part about defined search areas.

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 Message 76 by Minnemooseus, posted 11-16-2003 12:41 PM Minnemooseus has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 78 by NosyNed, posted 11-16-2003 1:19 PM crashfrog has replied
 Message 81 by Minnemooseus, posted 11-18-2003 12:42 AM crashfrog has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1487 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 79 of 89 (66866)
11-16-2003 1:24 PM
Reply to: Message 78 by NosyNed
11-16-2003 1:19 PM


Well then I propose that if you don't know where something would be if it existed - if you don't know where to look - then absence of evidence in the places you've looked is not evidence of absence - it's evidence that you haven't looked in enough places.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 78 by NosyNed, posted 11-16-2003 1:19 PM NosyNed has not replied

Replies to this message:
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