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Author Topic:   Is Earth old enough for DNA to evolve?
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(5)
Message 3 of 60 (668092)
07-17-2012 5:26 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by bcoop
07-17-2012 4:15 AM


4. The base pairs are the building blocks of DNA. If I follow evolutionary theory correctly, if there are 3 billion base pairs then it took 3 billion replication errors to arrive at the current DNA structure ( unless multiple simultaneous positive replication errors occurred).
You've not followed evolutionary theory correctly. There are plenty of known mechanisms that increase the length of the genome other than single nucleotide insertions. This alone completely ruins your argument.
a. 3 billion generations would take 60 billion years if each female reproduced at the age of 20. It is stated that life on earth is only 2 billion years old.
I don't think you've thought about this very carefully. HUmans may have a generation time of ~20 years; but you're trying to talk about the whole evolutionary process from single-celled organisms onwards. Prokaryotes, for example, typically have generation times of between 1 and 3 hours. A single-celled eukaryote, such as yeast, 90 minutes. This is something you'd have to take into account.
b. It would take longer if any of the errors were deleterious and not advantageous.
Again, you haven't thought this through.
Remember, a mutation is something that happens in the first place to an individual and not a population. So long as there are beneficial mutations coming along and being fixed by natural selection at the necessary rate (whatever that is) it doesn't matter how many deleterious mutations are coming along and being removed by natural selection.
(In summary, it is generally accepted that the majority of mutations are neutral or deleterious, with rare mutations being advantageous.
Do bear in mind that a neutral mutation which made the genome longer can go on to be fixed by genetic drift just as a beneficial one can be fixed by natural selection. Since your argument relates to the length of the genome rather than its function, you can't discount neutral mutations.
c. This assumes that each and every mutation was the exact necessary mutation needed in the right order.
Not really. A mutation in the wrong order would not be beneficial. Once we've noted that not all mutations are beneficial, the point doesn't need making twice.
d. It also assumes that each generation got the opportunity to successfully reproduce and didn’t die first or something.
Well, since life is still here, this would appear to be a valid "assumption". If, by analogy, I was to try to estimate the time it took for you to type your post, I should do so under the "assumption" that when you wrote it you were not dead. It is true that if you were then your typing speed would drop to zero, but I can be fairly sure that you weren't.
Of course, some things did go extinct, but we know that none of our ancestral species went extinct, because here we are.
e. The replication error of a single base pair out of the 3 billion pairs can result in a genetically transmitted disease. We need 3 billion positive consecutive errors with no negative errors along the way.
See the answer to b. There were doubtless lots of negative errors along the way. The proportion of them that got fixed in the gene pool must have been tiny; also, it has nothing to do with your argument, which is about the size of the genome. Perhaps we do have some deleterious mutations fixed in our gene pool. What of it?
f. There is no provision at all here for natural selection
And that's only one of the things that is wrong with your argument. Yes, you left natural selection out of an atempt at analyzing an evolutionary process, thus leading to several of your more egregious errors. Next time, try leaving it in.
6. I am sure this has been studied and discussed — can you point me to literature or web sites where I can read about this issue?
Or just textbooks.
If you don't know that there are mutations other than single nucleotide insertions that increase the length of a genome, then you haven't really tried to understand the basics, have you? You could have gotten hold of a book called something like Introduction To Genetics and read it, but you didn't, did you?
Now, don't get me wrong, I like your style. It's a nice try. Only ... you're basing your argument not on facts that scientists have discovered, but on things that you vaguely think are true but you can't really say where you got your "facts" from. Every time I do that, I make a fool of myself --- and just 'cos you think God is on your side ... well, God won't save you from making mistakes.
---
Let me give you a non-religious example. I talked with a woman who was going to completely destroy the idea that bad diet is a major cause of heart disease. Her argument was that the people of New Guinea have more heart disease than anywhere in the world, and they don't eat a western diet.
A couple of minutes with google would have been her friend. The people of New Guinea have the unhealthiest diet in the world, they shovel down corned beef and buffalo wings like there's no tomorrow. They eat fat and salt like there's no tomorrow ... which in many cases there isn't.
Before she cited her "fact" she should have made sure that it was a fact. Otherwise her argument might have convinced her, and it might have convinced people ignorant of the facts, but it's never going to convince people who know the facts.
---
You've got to get it right. I'm not closed-minded, maybe if you try really hard to debunk evolution you will succeed. I'm rooting for you. But you have to do so with respect to real facts that are actually true, not by appealing to stuff that you kind of think that you're fairly sure that you've heard somewhere.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 4:15 AM bcoop has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 9:09 AM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 8 of 60 (668102)
07-17-2012 8:43 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by bcoop
07-17-2012 8:33 AM


Re: Generation lengths bogus
Yes of course the lengths are bogus, but it makes the point that there are a lot of generations needed and they add up to a long time. It is difficult to articulate the point I am trying to make and over simplifying it makes it easy to communicate the concept.
But your concept is trying to be quantitative. Your concept is that so-and-so many generations have passed, and so such-and-such an amount of evolution can't have taken place.
So if your numbers are no good --- if, as you yourself admit, "of course the lengths are bogus", then you don't have an argument. You don't have a quantitative argument against evolution if you yourself admit that your numbers are "bogus".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 8:33 AM bcoop has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 9:12 AM Dr Adequate has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 33 of 60 (668162)
07-17-2012 8:41 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by bcoop
07-17-2012 9:09 AM


Re: Not so fast
I appreciate your detailed reply. The attempt here was to really ask the question:
Has mathematical modeling been conducted of the amount of time it would take to generate the human genome?
Yes, my simplistic model is full of errors, which you correctly point out, but you do not really address the underlying question, which is has someone modeled this process over time.
Well, you didn't actually ask the "underlying question", which is why I didn't address it.
Some calculations have been done. For example, you mention the eye: you might want to look at Nilsson and Pelger's paper: "A pessimistic estimate of the time required for an eye to evolve".
I'm not sure that anyone's tried to make an estimate of how long the whole thing would take. I think if anyone tried,they'd have to make so many guesses that by the time they'd added up all the vagueness they'd be lucky to get within a couple of orders of magnitude; whereas using radiometric dating you actually get the right answer.
Yes — a yeast cell may reproduce in 90 minutes but how long does it take for a positive change to end up in the human DNA on the the end of the chain where we are now, taking into account natural selection and the host of other factors?
But you have to take into account the generation time, is my point. Which is just one of the things you'd have to guess at. If you look at (for example) one-celled eukaryotes, you get quite a wide spread of generation times, depending on species and environment. Then we might ask ourselves how this would apply to primitive one-celled eukaryotes. It would not be unreasonable to speculate that the earliest, crudest versions took ten or even a hundred times longer to reproduce than the modern versions. And then you've got two orders of magnitude of potential error right there.
The point about Deleterious mutations was only that it would add more time to the process to overcome them.
And I pointed out why it wouldn't.
As far as your comments about reading a textbook, I did know that there were other methods that increase the length of the genome, but I was writing a one paragraph model of a concept I wanted to discuss.
Well, you sounded more sure of yourself then than you do now.
Your criticism is a little harsh, and maybe a little bit knee jerk to my post.
I thought I was being tactful. This is admittedly something I'm not good at.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 9:09 AM bcoop has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 38 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 8:59 PM Dr Adequate has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 37 of 60 (668168)
07-17-2012 8:57 PM
Reply to: Message 34 by bcoop
07-17-2012 8:44 PM


Wikipedia says it's "an octoploid and suspected allopolyploid hybrid of four species". So its genome has been duplicated twice, and also is made up of the genomes of several different species of plants which have bred together by a weird genetic accident, each donating its entire genome to the mix rather than half each as in normal reproduction.
It's stuff like this that, again, makes it hard to figure out how long the evolution of something ought to take --- because we couldn't figure out a priori that this stuff would happen on the way to Paris japonica, we have to look after the fact and note that it did.
In the same way, it's perfectly possible that one of the things that happened on the way to humans was the lateral gene transfer of the entire genome of one species of single-celled organism to another, doubling the genome size at a single stroke. When calculating how long our genome took to evolve, what can we say about such an event except that it did happen or it didn't? So there's more room for some more error.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 8:44 PM bcoop has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 39 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 9:04 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 41 of 60 (668176)
07-17-2012 9:25 PM
Reply to: Message 39 by bcoop
07-17-2012 9:04 PM


answers only generate more questions to ask - the lateral transfer of an entire genome - that sounds like something to study all by itself!
I know that that can happen within species, I don't know if it's ever happened between species (I mean the transfer of an entire genome, partial transfers are common). But I don't see why it shouldn't.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 39 by bcoop, posted 07-17-2012 9:04 PM bcoop has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 51 of 60 (668252)
07-19-2012 1:47 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by bcoop
07-18-2012 9:53 PM


Re: So what have I learned?
The science community has struggled with communicating this — maybe there is a straight forward presentation of genetics and evolution that does a good job of explaining these things and I suspect someone may have a suggestion.
I'm not sure exactly what more the science community should be doing. The information is out there, there are books, there are websites --- should they also be going round knocking on doors asking: "Have you heard the good news about genetics?"

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by bcoop, posted 07-18-2012 9:53 PM bcoop has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 54 by bcoop, posted 07-19-2012 7:22 AM Dr Adequate has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 53 of 60 (668261)
07-19-2012 6:56 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by Tangle
07-19-2012 3:24 AM


Re: So what have I learned?
For me it's like big physics or advanced mathematic, there comes a point very early on when you simply have to accept what you are being told by those that have spent their lives working in the field and read about it in the popularising literature.
I don't think it's remotely like that. It's not like that because the nuts and bolts of the subject aren't in fact abstruse mathematical concepts, but something much more graspable by intuition; the underlying bits and pieces are just normal objects only smaller, and the abstraction in the subject actually makes it simpler, since it involves saying things like: "OK, ignore the biochemistry of how a ribosome works, and let's think about what it does." Instead of abstracting to an four-dimensional integral of a tensor expression or whatever, it's more like abstracting the way a car works by saying: "Without going into details, let's just say the engine produces rotary motion and leave it at that for the moment."
That it's complicated is true, but it's the sort of complexity we can cope with, because it's only complicated because there are a lot of processes to be taken into account. In that sense it's complicated, but that doesn't really make it difficult. It's like my "introduction to geology" thread. What makes geology complicated is that there are lots of geological processes. Most of them are fairly easy to understand. Wind transports sand. Glaciers drop rocks when they melt. Coccoliths sink. And so on.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by Tangle, posted 07-19-2012 3:24 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by Tangle, posted 07-19-2012 8:25 AM Dr Adequate has not replied

  
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